Re: 2013 SS
posted at 10/26/2012 12:10 AM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to jasko2248's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
The chances of Tampa Bay trading James Shields to Boston are about the same as the Mariners trading Felix Hernandez to the Sox for a fungo bat....Seriously
False. TB will gladly trade Shields to the Sox, if we give them what they think is more value than he has.
Ummm...you're not getting it. They would never trade Shields to Boston unless the deal was so ridiculously lopsided that they had no choice, which of course the Sox would NEVER do. Therefore, there is ZERO chance, but keep coming up with "realistic" trade proposals that Tampa would accept if it makes you happy. It's better than reading your ridiculous banter with that psycho softlaw.
No, I get your point. I just don't agree. It's a bit condescending to assume that because someone doesn't agree with your "unquestionably righteous" position, they must not understand it, otherwise, if they had had half a brain, they'd have to agree with you.
I undertsand the reluctance of any team to trade a good player to a division foe, but it is not unprecedented. I disagree that the deal would have to be "ridiculously lopsided" to get a deal done. I do think it will have to be a clearly better offer, but I look at the Shields case as a unique situation that makes a deal with Boston a little more reasonable than one might expect by looking at the surface. Here's why:
1) I think it is extremely likely TB trades Shields this winter. He is owed $9M in 2013 (club option) and has a $12M club option in 2014. This is way out of their normal price range. Also, TB has several young starters ready to step in to take his place. Besides having Price, Hellickson, Niemann, Davis and Moore, they also have Cobb & Archer. TB has a rich history of dealing players away before their big payday.
2) How many teams in MLB will take on $21M for 2 years? On top of that, how many will offer top prospects to get it? Yes, there are perhaps a dozen or so who would make an offer, but not 29 teams. This narrows the field of offers considerably.
3) TB needs a catcher in a very bad way. We have Lavarnway & Swihart, and can spare one without crippling our catching future. How many of the teams willing to take on Shields' contract have a top catching prospect let alone are willing to part with him? The state of MLB catching is so bad these days, that most teams hold onto a great catcher or catching prospect at all costs.
4) TB often takes far away from the bigs prospects in a quantity over quality philosophy, and the Sox are loaded up younger prospects drafted in the early rounds over the past 3 years. I am not sure many teams that can afford Shields, want to strongly contend in the next 2 years are as deep as us. My guess is only 2-3 teams meet the criteria needed to get Shields from TB. Needing to out-offer only 2-3 teams makes the chances of it happening greater than one might expect.
All this being said, I do not think we will trade for Shields. I think we will look for young starters under team control beyond 2014. Maybe something like Ellsbury, Aceves, Cecchini, Nava, and Britton for Tommy Hanson & Martin Prado.
I have a "self-righteous attitude," yet you continually post that "2013 is a bridge year," despite the fact that most of the intelligent posters on this board think that notion is ridiculous. You can come up with as many "scenarios" as you want, but the fact remains that there is no way that Shields will end up in Boston. Even Nick Cafardo, who gets paid to come up with "hypotheticals that make little sense," said in his column last week that there is obviously no way Tampa talks to Boston about Shields. By the way, the Braves trade you propose is a joke if you are a Sox fan. Stick to stats, you are great at breaking them down, ignore Law and get back to being a Sox fan....