Re: 2015 MLB Draft and what to do
posted at 7/8/2014 5:21 PM EDT
Oh so wait...you want college guys that were drafted as Jr's or Sr???? listen my whole point was first of all you don't draft by need. Find me ONE, ONE JUST ONE scout, G.M. or baseball analysis who is respected who talks about a team drafting for MLB needs. Secondly I said it doesn't always take guys 2 years to reach the majors and when they do they often struggle for a year or two so even when they do we are talking about a guy who is realistically 4 years away from being a productive member of the lineup are their exceptions??? yes there are. Yes a few of those guys were JR. college guys but most college draftees are Juniors, so you are talking about drafting someone with ONE!!! ONE!! more year of college experience. Lets look at the numbers.
Kris Bryant = stud, still not there. don't use his college ops. 99% of the pitchers he faces will never see the MLB let alone the minors
Colin Moran - should be MLB next year right? pedestrian in single A. 739 OPS 40/19 K/BB ehhh.
2012 Mike Zunino fits your model, was bad defensively but better this year behind the plate. OFfensive number = .217/.271/.435 power is up this year but still batting .217 with 90 K's to only 11 BB's that's a pretty horrible stat line
Anthony Rendon - fits your model, not all star type but a productive good player
Corey Spandenberg - I didn't know we were doing college seniors only, he played for two different colleges by the way he was a sophmore. Most college top guys are at least juniors I'm giving you ONE year here. Still it's been 3 yeras and he is only in AA. he is a decent prospect though, 1 year younger than your typical college draftee
Cris Colon - redundant. took 4 years just called up.
Michael Choice -HS'er my mistake.
Dustin Ackley - Took 2 years to reach majors, after a decent rookie season has put up very pedestrian numbers. OPS has been .622/.660/.634 since his rookie campaign. strikes out more than he walks, no power no speed.
Jorge Sanchez took FOUR years to reach the majors and has been an up/down player. .258/.303/.386 slash line with a 15% CS% 14% this year. Not a good player
Pedro Alvarez - took 2 years to reach the majors, but has been lackluster, has power but nothing else. He struck out 199 times to only 61 walks his first two years. And didn't get consistant playing time until his 4th year. Since then he has put up AVG's of .244/.234/.240 OBP's .317/.296/.307 and strikes out TON leading the league with 186 one year
Brian Matusz - opps he's a pitcher
Buster Posey - You got me there. took a year to get to the majors, immediate stud. we have found one!!!
Yonder Alonso - 2 years to reach majors. was awful first year. 3rd year was called up at the end of the year and batted .943 OPS in less than 100 at bats. His OPS dipped to .741 the next year and has gone down every year...very average player. No speed, no power, ok defense at a position not coveted for defense.
Gordan Beckham took 1 year to reach the majors, had a decent rookie campaign and that has been his best year. with sub .700 OPS every year since. not a good player
Jason Castro - Got to the majors quick, took 4 years to be an everday catcher, realistically he's had one good year. His defense is adequate but not stellar.
Matt Weiters - reached the majors quick in two years and put up pedestrian numbers, by his 3rd year in the majors he reached an all star level of performance...again he didn't hit the ground running. Rookie campaign was decent, had a sophmore slump but didn't become the player he was today until a few years. We can call him a wash between us.
Matt Laporta - took 2 years to reach but has been no better than a bench guy.
Even Longoria - there ya go...there's one.
Drew Stubbs - 3 years to reach, 4 to be an everyday player. Low Average, low walks, strikes out a ton. a little bit of pop and some good speed however. at 29 years old may be having his best season.
yes there are a few gems in there... but like I said not every college bat that reaches the majors in two years is going to be a productive one, and still a lot of those guys don't end up being any good. I'm not saying we shouldn't get a college bat. But saying that we MUST draft one is just completely illogical. There is absolutely ZERO guarantee we are getting the next Kris Bryant....we could also be getting the next Matt Laporta.
Again with the exception of guys like Posey and Longoria...most college bats don't get to the majors quick AND produce right away.
realistically lets say we draft a guy in 2015, we should expect him there everyday productive by 2018. This team is going to have so much turn over from now until then. With almost every contract but Pedey's off the books by then, multiple free agents will have been signed, players traded, rookies coming into their own. The outfield will probably not even be a team need by then. Drafting now, for what we need now....is just plain wrong and is not how teams operate.