Re: A case for David Ortiz to the HOF
posted at 12/22/2013 11:19 AM EST
In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:
.287 career batting avg. Ortiz, Ted Simmons .285. I think it would not be fair at all.
So you're looking at one stat?
The fact that he was just a DH shouldn't be held against him. It's a position, just like any other. Yes, a great SS can have lesser offensive numbers because of his glove. A DH needs to have great batting numbers but it shouldn't be unreasonable.
Right now, I say no to the Hall. Career numbers aren't quite there. However, if he plays three more years and averages 25 HRs, 90 RBIs, 150 hits and 30 doubles, 80 runs, 65 BBs, he'll finish:
506 HRs -- 26th all-time, he's 45th now.
1,699 RBIs -- Tied for 25th. However if he reaches 1,705, he'll move up to 22nd. He's 65th now.
2,473 hits -- Around 99th. He's 260th.
610 doubles -- 11th or 12th all time.He's 46th now.
1,448 runs -- 78th all time. He's at 171 now.
1,282 BBs -- 45th all time. He's tied for 82nd now.
For the career rankings, of the active players, I'm also assuming that Pujols stays ahead of him (in all categories but walks; Ortiz already is ahead). So if Pujols career suddenly ends, you can move Ortiz ahead one spot.
So to me, if he reaches all those numbers, I say he should be a lock -- especially if he surpasses the HR, RBI and doubles numbers. If he falls short, then depending on by how much and in what categories, it's remains open for debate.
The DH thing to me should be a non-issue. And the averages I mentioned isn't too out of reach, especially if he has another good year this year.
He could go 30-100, 25-90, 20-80 in HR-RBI.
However, his decline could start this year. Last year could have been the 30-100 in my above example, and he could go 25-90 then 20-80 over the next two years. Then it becomes if he plays another year (or more) and what his numbers end up being.
So in my long-winded analysis, if Ortiz can stay productive for at least three more years, he could become an easy HOF pick.
If he reaches my averages for the next three years then adds another one or two of mediocre numbers 14 HR, 50 RBI range -- he becomes even more of a lock (528 HR, 1,800 RBIs).
If he start to fade this year and still play two more years beyond this year with pedestrian numbers, then it remains a debate.
Ortiz's postseaon numbers shouldn't be overlooked -- 82 games, 21 doubles, 17 HR, 60 RBIs, .295 BA, .962 OPS, including a .455 BA in 14 World Series games.