A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    For arguments sake if Iggy does save 100 hits in 150 games next year, how much higher than .200 does he have to hit to call it even?

    To oversimplify things, if you add 100 hits to a .200 hitter (100 H/ 500 AB), he's now hitting .400 (200 for 500). Would you accept that on offense from a below average fielding SS?

    [/QUOTE]


    if he was the only option then yes. but how many hits will ciriaco (or some other outside SS) save? while giving more offensive production than iggy. in a vacuum, i would go with iggy. but i have to consider the other options for the position. we can all agree ciriaco (im going with ciriaco because he is the only other SS on the roster at this point) is a better hitter than iggy. we can also agree that iggy is a better fielder than ciriaco. So does iggys improved defense outweigh ciriacos improved offense? in my mind its a wash (or close to). So do you go with youth and hope the offense improves? or do you go with the underdog story and hope ciriaco is a late bloomer and finally found a home in boston? i'm a sucker for the underdog :)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    if he was the only option then yes. but how many hits will ciriaco (or some other outside SS) save?

    I'm talking about Iggy saving, for arguments sake, 100 hits more than the average fielding SS in MLB. My guess is that Ciriaco is about average maybe a little plus.

    I'd love to have a SS who saved 100 hits and got a few more hits on offense than the average SS, but my point about Iggy, is that the amount of hits he saves that most other SS do not save has to lessen the impact on his poor hitting projection. If he is really a fantastic fielding SS that can make 100 more plays than a normal SS, it sbaout the same as a .400 hitting SS who makes 100 less plays than Iggy. I don't think anyone here would mind having a .400 hitting SS who is one of the worst fielders in MLB. However, they do not view plus defense positively in the same manner.

    while giving more offensive production than iggy. in a vacuum, i would go with iggy. but i have to consider the other options for the position. we can all agree ciriaco (im going with ciriaco because he is the only other SS on the roster at this point) is a better hitter than iggy.

    I'm not so sure Ciriaco is that much better on offense. His Ml sample size is puny, while his minor league OBP is .299. Yes, .299 in over 3,000 PAs in the minors. If Ciriaco bats .250, that is equal to 125 for 500. If Iggy saves 50 more hits than Ciriaco, I'm seeing a net plus to Iggy.

    we can also agree that iggy is a better fielder than ciriaco. So does iggys improved defense outweigh ciriacos improved offense? in my mind its a wash (or close to). So do you go with youth and hope the offense improves? or do you go with the underdog story and hope ciriaco is a late bloomer and finally found a home in boston? i'm a sucker for the underdog :)

    Hard to say who is more of an underdog, but I get your point.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    i understand what your saying now. its certainly a tempting scenario. i know he probably won't save 100 more hits than the average SS but i get your math. I'm also eager to see that glove in action and how it affects our pitching staff (granted it won't help with the long ball) but our up the middle defense will be the best in the league with iggy, pedey and big number 2 all getting GGs. even middlebrooks surprised me with his defense last season. i wasn't expecting much from him but he made some real good plays.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i understand what your saying now. its certainly a tempting scenario. i know he probably won't save 100 more hits than the average SS but i get your math. I'm also eager to see that glove in action and how it affects our pitching staff (granted it won't help with the long ball) but our up the middle defense will be the best in the league with iggy, pedey and big number 2 all getting GGs. even middlebrooks surprised me with his defense last season. i wasn't expecting much from him but he made some real good plays.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ciriaco is a very good defensive SS, perhaps even excellent and close to Iggy's level, so an Iggy gain on defense is not going to be 100 plays saved over 150 games. I want to say that I used this same argument about Iggy last winter, but wrongly assumed that Aviles was a below average SS, particularly in the range factor area. As it turned out, Aviles did better than average and wiped out the plays made differential to a pretty large extent. (His offense was below what I had projected after a nice start.)

    I do want to point out that 100 plays saved over 150 games is not fantasy. Perhaps it is more like 50-75 over an average SS and  75-150 over the bottom fielders, but the numbers over the past few seasons show some pretty massive disparities between the best and the worst SSs by plays made per 9 innings.

    I provided the numbers last year, and I found that a few top ranged SSs made 100-150 more plays in about the same innings as other ML SSs.

    Here's alook at 2012:

    SSs with 1350+ innings & plays made (PO+A)

    Hardy 1439/773

    Reyes 1411/645

    Castro 1403/731

    A Ram 1392/661

    AEscobar 1380/650

    Rollins 1364/581

    *** Hardy made over 150 more plays per 150 games than Rollins and about 120 more than Reyes.

     

    SSs with 1150-1350 innings:

    Andrus   1333/647

    Peralta  1278/588

    YEscobar 1251/672

    EAybar     1190/591

    Jeter         1186/516

    BRyan      1171/593

    Cozart     1164/553

    ACabrera 1161/632

    *** Y Escobar made 150 more plays than Jeter in less than 150 games.

     

    The numbers are real. The theory is sound. A great fielding SS can shave a lot off a teams ERA and help us win as much or more than a good hitting poor fielding SS.

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i understand what your saying now. its certainly a tempting scenario. i know he probably won't save 100 more hits than the average SS but i get your math. I'm also eager to see that glove in action and how it affects our pitching staff (granted it won't help with the long ball) but our up the middle defense will be the best in the league with iggy, pedey and big number 2 all getting GGs. even middlebrooks surprised me with his defense last season. i wasn't expecting much from him but he made some real good plays.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ciriaco is a very good defensive SS, perhaps even excellent and close to Iggy's level, so an Iggy gain on defense is not going to be 100 plays saved over 150 games. I want to say that I used this same argument about Iggy last winter, but wrongly assumed that Aviles was a below average SS, particularly in the range factor area. As it turned out, Aviles did better than average and wiped out the plays made differential to a pretty large extent. (His offense was below what I had projected after a nice start.)

    I do want to point out that 100 plays saved over 150 games is not fantasy. Perhaps it is more like 50-75 over an average SS and  75-150 over the bottom fielders, but the numbers over the past few seasons show some pretty massive disparities between the best and the worst SSs by plays made per 9 innings.

    I provided the numbers last year, and I found that a few top ranged SSs made 100-150 more plays in about the same innings as other ML SSs.

    Here's alook at 2012:

    SSs with 1350+ innings & plays made (PO+A)

    Hardy 1439/773

    Reyes 1411/645

    Castro 1403/731

    A Ram 1392/661

    AEscobar 1380/650

    Rollins 1364/581

    *** Hardy made over 150 more plays per 150 games than Rollins and about 120 more than Reyes.

     

    SSs with 1150-1350 innings:

    Andrus   1333/647

    Peralta  1278/588

    YEscobar 1251/672

    EAybar     1190/591

    Jeter         1186/516

    BRyan      1171/593

    Cozart     1164/553

    ACabrera 1161/632

    *** Y Escobar made 150 more plays than Jeter in less than 150 games.

     

    The numbers are real. The theory is sound. A great fielding SS can shave a lot off a teams ERA and help us win as much or more than a good hitting poor fielding SS.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    i buy it. it holds water despite all the variables each SS faces (how often the ball is hit to them, positioning, the velocity and trajectory of the hit itself). but it is a sound theory, reports on iggy say he is a better fielder than all those people on the list so i guess its not outside the realm of possibility for him to save 100+ more hits than an average SS.
     (i do not consider jeter an average defensive SS, he is the bottom of the barrel at this point in his career)

    i have to admit moon, your really selling me on iggy, obviously i want to see more offensive production from him but i'm willing to give him the time to work on it as well as see the effect he has on the staff. the better our offense gets the more confident i am about the idea too.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    i buy it. it holds water despite all the variables each SS faces (how often the ball is hit to them, positioning, the velocity and trajectory of the hit itself). but it is a sound theory, reports on iggy say he is a better fielder than all those people on the list so i guess its not outside the realm of possibility for him to save 100+ more hits than an average SS.

    Yes, there are a lot of variables, but guys like hardy are on the top every year, even with different clubs, pitching staffs, etc... 

    I know this is not an exact science, but I do think it is safe to say that a great ranged SS can easily make 50 more plays over 150 games. That's 1 every 3 games. I've seen great opponent SSs make 3 plays in 1 game that our SSs only make in their dreams. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of it. I want to see some "flash" at SS in 2013. It will help a staff that needs all the help and conficence boosting it can get.


     (i do not consider jeter an average defensive SS, he is the bottom of the barrel at this point in his career)

     

    Jeter was never even good. He has been the worst for over 5 years (combined). Don't get me started here... LOL!

    i have to admit moon, your really selling me on iggy, obviously i want to see more offensive production from him but i'm willing to give him the time to work on it as well as see the effect he has on the staff. the better our offense gets the more confident i am about the idea too.

    Glad to see you have an open mind. I've had to change my views a few times when things didn't go as I expected (see Aviles and Salty this year).

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i buy it. it holds water despite all the variables each SS faces (how often the ball is hit to them, positioning, the velocity and trajectory of the hit itself). but it is a sound theory, reports on iggy say he is a better fielder than all those people on the list so i guess its not outside the realm of possibility for him to save 100+ more hits than an average SS.

    Yes, there are a lot of variables, but guys like hardy are on the top every year, even with different clubs, pitching staffs, etc... 

    I know this is not an exact science, but I do think it is safe to say that a great ranged SS can easily make 50 more plays over 150 games. That's 1 every 3 games. I've seen great opponent SSs make 3 plays in 1 game that our SSs only make in their dreams. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of it. I want to see some "flash" at SS in 2013. It will help a staff that needs all the help and conficence boosting it can get.


     (i do not consider jeter an average defensive SS, he is the bottom of the barrel at this point in his career)

     

    Jeter was never even good. He has been the worst for over 5 years (combined). Don't get me started here... LOL!

    i have to admit moon, your really selling me on iggy, obviously i want to see more offensive production from him but i'm willing to give him the time to work on it as well as see the effect he has on the staff. the better our offense gets the more confident i am about the idea too.

    Glad to see you have an open mind. I've had to change my views a few times when things didn't go as I expected (see Aviles and Salty this year).

    [/QUOTE]


    Good job Moon! Defense first up the middle. C, SS, 2b, CF....Lots of hits and runs saved that way.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    Good job Moon! Defense first up the middle. C, SS, 2b, CF....Lots of hits and runs saved that way.

    Defense is my favorite part of the game of baseball. When I was a kid dreaming of being a MLB player, while others dreamed of hitting a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth-game 7, I dreamed of robbing a home run to save the 7th game (then slamming into the wall and having to be carried off the field- half in glory & half out of need.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

     

    When I was a kid, my dream was Scott Boras being my agent and making me rich.  LOL

     

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    When I was a kid, my dream was Scott Boras being my agent and making me rich.  LOL

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good one!

    (Was Boras around when you were a youngster?)

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A closer Look at Iggy's 2012 MLB Season

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