A Look Ahead to 2016

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Look Ahead to 2016

    Assuming no players are extended or re-signed, here is the way I see how our prospects could/should be aligned by position. I took the liberty of placing a ______ where I think a free agent might be signed or one of our current players are continued.


    C:  Vazquez, Swihart (Lava/Butler)


    1B: _______, Middy, Carp,T Shaw (Cecchini?)


    2B: Pedroia, Coyle, Rijo (Betts)


    3B: Bogaerts (Middy), Holt


    SS: _______, Marrero, Holt


    LF: Cecchini, (Holt?), Nava, Hassan


    CF: JBJ, Ramos (Margot)


    RF: Betts, Brentz


    DH: Rotate: Cecchini, Betts, Holt, or Middy


    SP: _______, _______, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Mercedes, L Diaz


    RP: _______, _______, Tazawa, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirez


    I see a lot of hope in our prospects. I know some of the names above will not pan out, but then again, some players not listed here that are currently in our system could rise qucikly and surprise us by being an impact player by 2016 or 2017.


    I like the fact that we have at least 8 starting pitchers fighting to earn three rotation slots. 


    I like how our OF could turn into an offensive force with the addtions of Betts and possibly Cecchini and Holt.


    Our IF defense could be sharp with Pedey at 2B, Marrero at SS and Bogey at 3B, and possibly Middy or Cecchini at 1B.


    With all the money coming off the books over the next 2 years, we should be able to fill the 6 slots I left open with some very well paid free agents, if needed. We may end up needing more than the 6 I listed, but there should be budget space for that too.


     


     


    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    It will be interesting to see where all these kids end up. 

    The jury is still out as to what position a few players will be playing. Xander Betts Middy Cecchini and Holt could end up at a couple different positions. holt could be super sub.

    Workman RDLR Webster Ranaudo Barnes Owens and now Johnson, whos making some noise in AA. All within shouting distance, some closer than others, but all are close.

    we have the pieces to make a huge splash if the right deal comes along.

    we will have a ton of $$$ to spend

    Im looking forward to the next few years for this organization.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It will be interesting to see where all these kids end up. 

    The jury is still out as to what position a few players will be playing. Xander Betts Middy Cecchini and Holt could end up at a couple different positions. holt could be super sub.

    Workman RDLR Webster Ranaudo Barnes Owens and now Johnson, whos making some noise in AA. All within shouting distance, some closer than others, but all are close.

    we have the pieces to make a huge splash if the right deal comes along.

    we will have a ton of $$$ to spend

    Im looking forward to the next few years for this organization.

    [/QUOTE]


    Although I love the idea of a rotating DH, especially with all of the defensively-challenged plus changed-position players we should have advancing to the 25 man roster, but losing Papi's bat and leadership in crunch time will not be easy or cheap to replace.

    Lester and Uehara might not be too easy or inexpensive to replace either, but the likes of the oft-injured Victorino, the streaky Napoli, the inconsistent Peavy and other roleplayers should not be too difficult to replace from within our system or through free agency or trades.

    A lot of positional decisions depends on where Bogey ends up, and it's no secret I prefer to see him at 3B with a big plus defender at SS (Marrero or FA signing), so if he ends up at 3B going forward, then Cecchini has to be moved to 1B, LF or DH. I think we already have seen that the future of Betts should be the OF (CF or RF?), so those two moves really bolster our OF outlook by leaps and bounds. Add in the chances that Ramos, Brown, de la Cruz, Hassan, Brentz, Margot or some other OF'er slightly off the radar might surprise us, I think we may get lucky and solve all our OF dilemmas from within the system. JBJ is a key to this happening as well. More realistically though, we will probably have to obtain a big bat here to help make-up for the loss of Papi's bat.

    The IF is not going to be easy to build. Marrero is the key to our SS decision, again assuming Bogey sticks at 3B. Pedey is struggling to regain his high OBP, and his power seems like it might be gone for good, but he still should remain a plus 2Bman in 2016 and beyond. 1B is probably the slot that is most likely to be filled by a big FA signing. I seriously doubt Middy or Travis Shaw can fill even Napoli's shoes- let alone do better to help off-set the loss of Papi. I do see a chance Cecchini ends up at 1B, but the loss of power at 1B would likely be too harmful to make up for the gains in OBP and base running with Garin. 

    Holt could end up being that super sub that plays nearly every day by giving several players breathers as well as allowing them to rotate through the DH slot. For example, we could see Holt doing something like this:

    30 games at 3B (Bogey rests 5 games and DHs 25 games)

    10 games at SS (Marrero or the FA rests)

    10 games at 2B (Pedey rests or DHs)

    30 games at 1B (Our 1Bman rests or DHs)

    60 games in LF (Our LF'er rests, DHs or plays RF some games)

    There's 140 games right there- not counting injuries to any of the 5 positions listed above.

     

    Our catching position looks good, in terms of prospects, but both Vazquez and  Swihart are still question marks, and the catching position is perhaps the hardest to project from prospect to ML level performance.

     

    Our pitching staff might look a little light on sure-fire top prospects, but we have a high quantity of "just below" top quality pitching prospects. With just Buch and Doubie with a lot of ML experience on the books for 2015, we almost certainly will need outside help to fill one big slot in the rotation- most likely the ace slot. That will not be cheap or easy to do. I do, however, have faith that we can fill the other 4 slots competently from within the system... almost certainly 3 of them anyway. Here is a bit of an expanded list of pitchers who may win a 2016 rotation slot or at least give a good challenge for the 5th or 6th slot:

    Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa

    Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Wright

    Luis Diaz, Keith Couch, Mike Augiera, Corey Littrell, Pat Light, or possibly even Jamie Callahan, Cody Kukuk or Teddy Stankiewicz

     

    Our bullpen will likely need some help from outside the system, but some starters will be converted to relievers by 2016, in all liklihood, and I'm thinking Webster is the prime candidate for that shuffle. I don't see Tazawa as a closer, but he might be able to progress into that role. I could see Doubront settling into a pen position as well. Britton and Alez Wilson could hold down key pen roles and maybe Noe Ramirez can become a significant contributor.

     

    All in all, we have a lot of young talent that are largely question marks, but the sheer quantity of highly talented young players improves our odds of several of them being plus players at some positions by 2016.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    i wouldnt be shocked if papi is still our DH in 2016.

    guess Xander will not be moving back to SS?

    i wonder if FO is done with WMB?  i wouldnt be surprised if he is traded next month....

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Assuming no players are extended or re-signed, here is the way I see how our prospects could/should be aligned by position. I took the liberty of placing a ______ where I think a free agent might be signed or one of our current players are continued.

     

    C:  Vazquez, Swihart (Lava/Butler)

     

    1B: _______, Middy, Carp,T Shaw (Cecchini?)

     

    2B: Pedroia, Coyle, Rijo (Betts)

     

    3B: Bogaerts (Middy), Holt

     

    SS: _______, Marrero, Holt

     

    LF: Cecchini, (Holt?), Nava, Hassan

     

    CF: JBJ, Ramos (Margot)

     

    RF: Betts, Brentz

     

    DH: Rotate: Cecchini, Betts, Holt, or Middy

     

    SP: _______, _______, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Mercedes, L Diaz

     

    RP: _______, _______, Tazawa, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirez

     

    I see a lot of hope in our prospects. I know some of the names above will not pan out, but then again, some players not listed here that are currently in our system could rise qucikly and surprise us by being an impact player by 2016 or 2017.

     

    I like the fact that we have at least 8 starting pitchers fighting to earn three rotation slots. 

     

    I like how our OF could turn into an offensive force with the addtions of Betts and possibly Cecchini and Holt.

     

    Our IF defense could be sharp with Pedey at 2B, Marrero at SS and Bogey at 3B, and possibly Middy or Cecchini at 1B.

     

    With all the money coming off the books over the next 2 years, we should be able to fill the 6 slots I left open with some very well paid free agents, if needed. We may end up needing more than the 6 I listed, but there should be budget space for that too.

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    it's a good exercise but

    Here are the HUGE RED FLAGS to me

     

    1) Life without Ortiz

    2)  You have Buchholtz in the starting rotation

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    it's a good exercise but

    Here are the HUGE RED FLAGS to me

     

    1) Life without Ortiz

    We probably will need to upgrade at 3 positions to just come close to making up for Papi's departure.

    2) You have Buchholtz in the starting rotation

    Buch is just one of about 8-10 SP'ers we have in our system that could win a slot in our 5 man rotation for 2016. My guess is we will have signed 1-2 big named starters by then, so we will actually only need to fill 3-4 slots with those 8-10 guys listed above. I think that is fairly reasonable to expect 3 pluses out of those names.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    i wouldnt be shocked if papi is still our DH in 2016.

    I wouldn't be either, but I'm not expecting a .900+ OPS/ 30 HRs / 100+ RBIs either.

    guess Xander will not be moving back to SS?

    I hope not.

    i wonder if FO is done with WMB? i wouldnt be surprised if he is traded next month....

    I doubt we trade him at a low stock point, but it may never get higher either. Since napoli will be gone by 2016, I could see giving Middy a chance to fight it out with Travis Shaw and Carp to win the FT job by then, if nobody rises to the occasion we could look to move Cecchini there or fill the position with a mega bat free agent or trade return.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i wouldnt be shocked if papi is still our DH in 2016.

    I wouldn't be either, but I'm not expecting a .900+ OPS/ 30 HRs / 100+ RBIs either.

    guess Xander will not be moving back to SS?

    I hope not.

    i wonder if FO is done with WMB? i wouldnt be surprised if he is traded next month....

    I doubt we trade him at a low stock point, but it may never get higher either. Since napoli will be gone by 2016, I could see giving Middy a chance to fight it out with Travis Shaw and Carp to win the FT job by then, if nobody rises to the occasion we could look to move Cecchini there or fill the position with a mega bat free agent or trade return.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    it would be interesting to see what corner OF & 1b players will be FA after the 2015 season.  at that time it might be a good place to spend some of that $$$ no longer on the books.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    it's a good exercise but


    Here are the HUGE RED FLAGS to me


     


    1) Life without Ortiz


    We probably will need to upgrade at 3 positions to just come close to making up for Papi's departure.


    2) You have Buchholtz in the starting rotation


    Buch is just one of about 8-10 SP'ers we have in our system that could win a slot in our 5 man rotation for 2016. My guess is we will have signed 1-2 big named starters by then, so we will actually only need to fill 3-4 slots with those 8-10 guys listed above. I think that is fairly reasonable to expect 3 pluses out of those names.


    Sox4ever





    your first point - 100% correct.  illustrates just how hard it be


    your second point - well, you know i would never count on him for any innings


    good exercise though - can you do this in Excel - it's easier sometimes to move guys around and see how the team is structured plus it's easier to do a payroll analysis

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    Moon - also, just to reiterate - I would not count on Ortiz for 2016.  We need contingency plans.  Look what happened to the yankees.  Look what happened to use this year relying on Buchholtz and JBJ and WMB....

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    your first point - 100% correct. illustrates just how hard it will be

    Maybe impossible.

    your second point - well, you know i would never count on him for any innings

    I'm not really "counting on him", but there is a chance he gets healthy and dominates.


    good exercise though - can you do this in Excel - it's easier sometimes to move guys around and see how the team is structured plus it's easier to do a payroll analysis

    The payroll could be 5-7 big name guys and the rest near minimum, if all these kids work out.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon - also, just to reiterate - I would not count on Ortiz for 2016.  We need contingency plans.  Look what happened to the yankees.  Look what happened to use this year relying on Buchholtz and JBJ and WMB....

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not counting on Papi in 2016, and if he is still here, he won't be the Papi of 2013.

    We need to start looking for monster hitters soon. We can't be the Yanks and sign 3 in one year and hope none are busts. I'd like to get one this deadline (Stanton)  or winter somehow someway.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon - also, just to reiterate - I would not count on Ortiz for 2016.  We need contingency plans.  Look what happened to the yankees.  Look what happened to use this year relying on Buchholtz and JBJ and WMB....

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not counting on Papi in 2016, and if he is still here, he won't be the Papi of 2013.

    We need to start looking for monster hitters soon. We can't be the Yanks and sign 3 in one year and hope none are busts. I'd like to get one this deadline (Stanton)  or winter somehow someway.

    [/QUOTE]


    Yup, I never understand the love for Stanton until around about a month or so ago.  It is absolutely critical.  You know the Marlins turned us down in 2008 for Stanton when we did the Manny for Bay deal, right?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    We need to start looking for monster hitters soon. We can't be the Yanks and sign 3 in one year and hope none are busts. I'd like to get one this deadline (Stanton) or winter somehow someway.

    [/QUOTE]


    Yup, I never understand the love for Stanton until around about a month or so ago. It is absolutely critical. You know the Marlins turned us down in 2008 for Stanton when we did the Manny for Bay deal, right?

    Stanton's injuries and some inconsistencies were bothersome, but good young hitters are not on the block very often. That was one reason I was gushing over Justin Upton and others before him.

    Here's a list of the top OPS guys since 2013. Hardly any are available as free agents next winteror by trade this year or winter, but a few are or may be...

    Miggy, Tulo, Trout, Goldschmidt, C Davis, Puig, McCutchen, Han Ram, Ortiz, Votto, Encarnacion, Cuddyer, Bautista, Stanton, N Cruz, Freeman, B Moss, Werth, Cano, C Gomez, Beltre, Lind, Donaldson, Choo, Braun, K Davis, M Adams, VMart, Harper, Holliday, B Belt, Upton, Carpenter, Napoli, Lucroy, Utley, Pence, Gattis, M Byrd, Blackmon, Rasmus, Wright, Norris, Gennet, Longoria, A Jones, A Ramirez, Mauer, Posey, Fielder.

    That's 52 guys over .800 with 400+ PAs since 2013.

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    What if we traded for Stanton this winter, signed Scherzer & Lester, and then signed another big name after next season? The kids could fill in the rest rather nicely, and we'd still be under the luxury limit.

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    ‏@alexspeier
    Red Sox signed 11th rounder Karsten Whitson - former Padres 1st rounder - for $100K. He was up to 96 mph w/88 mph slider in ACC Tournament

     
  17. This post has been removed.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to Mod3's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What if we traded for Stanton this winter, signed Scherzer & Lester, and then signed another big name after next season? The kids could fill in the rest rather nicely, and we'd still be under the luxury limit.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Sure, maybe sign Ted Williams and Hank Aaron to sure up the lineup and Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax to round out the rotation.

    [/QUOTE]

    hmmm...except Stanton, Scherzer, Lester are all real actual people playing baseball today.  And two of them are free agents this offseason.  Definitely plausible. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What if we traded for Stanton this winter, signed Scherzer & Lester, and then signed another big name after next season? The kids could fill in the rest rather nicely, and we'd still be under the luxury limit.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    pretty much what i've been saying expect the after Stanton, Scherzer and Lester you'd be done (no more big names could stick w/ in the budget)......but yes, after that let the kids fill in (those that remain after Miami took a handful).....

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    The only problem with Stanton is Miami is 1.5 games out of the playoffs.....He might not be for sale until the offseason, or next seasons trade deadline.  If Miami goes on a horrible streak here...that could change. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Assuming no players are extended or re-signed, here is the way I see how our prospects could/should be aligned by position. I took the liberty of placing a ______ where I think a free agent might be signed or one of our current players are continued.

     

    C:  Vazquez, Swihart (Lava/Butler)

     

    1B: _______, Middy, Carp,T Shaw (Cecchini?)

     

    2B: Pedroia, Coyle, Rijo (Betts)

     

    3B: Bogaerts (Middy), Holt

     

    SS: _______, Marrero, Holt

     

    LF: Cecchini, (Holt?), Nava, Hassan

     

    CF: JBJ, Ramos (Margot)

     

    RF: Betts, Brentz

     

    DH: Rotate: Cecchini, Betts, Holt, or Middy

     

    SP: _______, _______, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Mercedes, L Diaz

     

    RP: _______, _______, Tazawa, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirez

     

    I see a lot of hope in our prospects. I know some of the names above will not pan out, but then again, some players not listed here that are currently in our system could rise qucikly and surprise us by being an impact player by 2016 or 2017.

     

    I like the fact that we have at least 8 starting pitchers fighting to earn three rotation slots. 

     

    I like how our OF could turn into an offensive force with the addtions of Betts and possibly Cecchini and Holt.

     

    Our IF defense could be sharp with Pedey at 2B, Marrero at SS and Bogey at 3B, and possibly Middy or Cecchini at 1B.

     

    With all the money coming off the books over the next 2 years, we should be able to fill the 6 slots I left open with some very well paid free agents, if needed. We may end up needing more than the 6 I listed, but there should be budget space for that too.

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Please no to that lineup.

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Assuming no players are extended or re-signed, here is the way I see how our prospects could/should be aligned by position. I took the liberty of placing a ______ where I think a free agent might be signed or one of our current players are continued.

     

    C:  Vazquez, Swihart (Lava/Butler)

     

    1B: _______, Middy, Carp,T Shaw (Cecchini?)

     

    2B: Pedroia, Coyle, Rijo (Betts)

     

    3B: Bogaerts (Middy), Holt

     

    SS: _______, Marrero, Holt

     

    LF: Cecchini, (Holt?), Nava, Hassan

     

    CF: JBJ, Ramos (Margot)

     

    RF: Betts, Brentz

     

    DH: Rotate: Cecchini, Betts, Holt, or Middy

     

    SP: _______, _______, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Mercedes, L Diaz

     

    RP: _______, _______, Tazawa, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirez

     

    I see a lot of hope in our prospects. I know some of the names above will not pan out, but then again, some players not listed here that are currently in our system could rise qucikly and surprise us by being an impact player by 2016 or 2017.

     

    I like the fact that we have at least 8 starting pitchers fighting to earn three rotation slots. 

     

    I like how our OF could turn into an offensive force with the addtions of Betts and possibly Cecchini and Holt.

     

    Our IF defense could be sharp with Pedey at 2B, Marrero at SS and Bogey at 3B, and possibly Middy or Cecchini at 1B.

     

    With all the money coming off the books over the next 2 years, we should be able to fill the 6 slots I left open with some very well paid free agents, if needed. We may end up needing more than the 6 I listed, but there should be budget space for that too.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm hoping more for a lineup like this moon, with the beginning process starting after this season.

    Betts and/or Holt in the OF, along with a big every day bat and maybe a Nava or similar type.  2B Pede, SS Marrero, 3B Bogy with Swihart and Vasquez at C.  I also see us with a new DH and 3B with both Middy and JBJ being traded.  The only way I see BJ staying is if he starts hitting better.  Cecchini depending on whether he can improve his power numbers could land at DH or IB.  Garin doesn't have the makeup to play the OF in my opinion, or defensive skills at 3B as we already know.  I could also see us trading for another 3B with Bogy landing in the OF at some point

    Other than this it's not even worth trying to predict like our future pitching staff.  A lot of names but until they prove themselves that's all they are.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to J-BAY's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ‏@alexspeier
    Red Sox signed 11th rounder Karsten Whitson - former Padres 1st rounder - for $100K. He was up to 96 mph w/88 mph slider in ACC Tournament

    [/QUOTE]


    Gotta luv it

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The only problem with Stanton is Miami is 1.5 games out of the playoffs.....He might not be for sale until the offseason, or next seasons trade deadline.  If Miami goes on a horrible streak here...that could change. 

    [/QUOTE]


    As it looks now, waiting until winter could be the best time for both clubs.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to J-BAY's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ‏@alexspeier
    Red Sox signed 11th rounder Karsten Whitson - former Padres 1st rounder - for $100K. He was up to 96 mph w/88 mph slider in ACC Tournament

    [/QUOTE]


    Gotta luv it

    [/QUOTE]

    Is he related to Ed Whitson?

     

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