A Look Ahead to 2016

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    Who would have projected that we would be hitting in the collective .240's at this point in the year, with Brock Holt by far the highest average guy?

    It is just a shock to me. I understand the injuries but to have virtually every player way under projections is off the charts unusual. It's almost like someone in the mafia has it in for us and has rigged the games against us. Losing one run games like crazy. Not getting pitch calls. Next time we win it all, I'm projecting the next year to be not in the playoffs. The game is stacked against us.

    In terms of 2016, it is real tough to see that far ahead but Cechinni is not looking even like a starter at this point but the pitchers are lining up to be significant contributors and Mookie looks for real even in his limited time in AAA. I have lots of hope for Swihart also. Other than that, I don't know if any are likely to be starting level players by 2016. And as much as I like JBJ, the numbers are not his friend so far in the last 1.5 years of baseball. He is a low cost defensive OF as of now. I'm hopeful his plus intangibles pay off for him in the future with continued improvement. 

    Fortunately some money will become available. Will we spend it is the question as top talent is by no means cheap. For example Tanaka was for real. Would we be willing to go there if such an opportunity does come up again for a stud like him?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    I'd still like Xander to be our SS. It just opens up the lineup for a bopper at 3rd. And we need that bopper at 3rd.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What if we traded for Stanton this winter, signed Scherzer & Lester, and then signed another big name after next season? The kids could fill in the rest rather nicely, and we'd still be under the luxury limit.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    pretty much what i've been saying expect the after Stanton, Scherzer and Lester you'd be done (no more big names could stick w/ in the budget)......but yes, after that let the kids fill in (those that remain after Miami took a handful).....

    [/QUOTE]


    Actually, Stanton would not cost much, and if Lester/Scherzer cost $50M combined, we'd still have money leftover.

    Luxury tax numbers for 2015 and 2016...

                 2015       2016

    Napoli  $16M          0

    Ortiz    $10-16M*  $10-16M* (Club options depending on PAs)

    Vic       $13M          0

    Pedey $13.75      $13.75

    Buch   $7.5M       $13M* (club option with $0.245M buyout)

    Mujica $4.75M     0

    Breslow $4M (club option ($0.1M buyout)  0

    Lackey   $.5M   0

    We have a few arb players, but no biggies. Only Hwerrera is on his last arb year. The rest of the players will all be making close to the min.

    I'm counting between $75-85M for 2015 and only about $30-43M for 2016, depending on options taken or not.

    If we spend $50M on Lester & Scherzer and extend Stanton longterm to bring his AVV to about $20M (which averages is his low pay early years), that still leaves us enough to pay the role players for 2015, and a good chunk of change to spend after 2015... but some big shoes to fill as well.

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Assuming no players are extended or re-signed, here is the way I see how our prospects could/should be aligned by position. I took the liberty of placing a ______ where I think a free agent might be signed or one of our current players are continued.

     

    C:  Vazquez, Swihart (Lava/Butler)

     

    1B: _______, Middy, Carp,T Shaw (Cecchini?)

     

    2B: Pedroia, Coyle, Rijo (Betts)

     

    3B: Bogaerts (Middy), Holt

     

    SS: _______, Marrero, Holt

     

    LF: Cecchini, (Holt?), Nava, Hassan

     

    CF: JBJ, Ramos (Margot)

     

    RF: Betts, Brentz

     

    DH: Rotate: Cecchini, Betts, Holt, or Middy

     

    SP: _______, _______, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Mercedes, L Diaz

     

    RP: _______, _______, Tazawa, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirez

     

    I see a lot of hope in our prospects. I know some of the names above will not pan out, but then again, some players not listed here that are currently in our system could rise qucikly and surprise us by being an impact player by 2016 or 2017.

     

    I like the fact that we have at least 8 starting pitchers fighting to earn three rotation slots. 

     

    I like how our OF could turn into an offensive force with the addtions of Betts and possibly Cecchini and Holt.

     

    Our IF defense could be sharp with Pedey at 2B, Marrero at SS and Bogey at 3B, and possibly Middy or Cecchini at 1B.

     

    With all the money coming off the books over the next 2 years, we should be able to fill the 6 slots I left open with some very well paid free agents, if needed. We may end up needing more than the 6 I listed, but there should be budget space for that too.

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Please no to that lineup.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A lot depends on who fills in those blanks, doesn't it?

    Nice catch by Holt in RF. Maybe he can be a plus defender out there going forward.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    I'm hoping more for a lineup like this moon, with the beginning process starting after this season.

    Betts and/or Holt in the OF, along with a big every day bat and maybe a Nava or similar type. 2B Pede, SS Marrero, 3B Bogy with Swihart and Vasquez at C. I also see us with a new DH and 3B with both Middy and JBJ being traded. The only way I see BJ staying is if he starts hitting better. Cecchini depending on whether he can improve his power numbers could land at DH or IB. Garin doesn't have the makeup to play the OF in my opinion, or defensive skills at 3B as we already know. I could also see us trading for another 3B with Bogy landing in the OF at some point

    Other than this it's not even worth trying to predict like our future pitching staff. A lot of names but until they prove themselves that's all they are.

    If Cecchini can maintain a .370+ OBP, I could care less about power. You may be right about his lack of ability to play OF, but playing half your games in Fenway's LF can lessen the negative on defense. If he can play an average 1B and bring his OBP to .380+ with 40+ 2Bs, I can live with 5-12 HRs from him at 1B, as long as the guys we get to fill in the other slots can bash the ball all over the place.

    We have lots of choices to fill our OF from within.

    Holt could be a nice OF'er or a flash in the pan.

    Betts could be great or...

    Cecchini or Middy might play LF.

    As you mentioned, maybe Bogey will end up in the OF.

    Then we have Margot a ways away and maybe a few sleepers like Ramos, Hassan, Brown, de la Cruz...

    JBJ is not someone I have given up hope on either.

    Nava could regain his dominance vs RHPs And still has several years of team control.

    Carp can give us some OF play and Vic still has a year left after this one, but I'm not counting on much there.

    If Marrero doesn't work out, we'll have to try an outside SS once more.

    I hope Pedey is not in a steady decline.

    Our catchers look good in scouting reports, but it's a big question mark for 2015 and beyond.

    Lots of names- lots of moving around options.

    Lots of money to spend this winter.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Who would have projected that we would be hitting in the collective .240's at this point in the year, with Brock Holt by far the highest average guy?

    It is just a shock to me. I understand the injuries but to have virtually every player way under projections is off the charts unusual. It's almost like someone in the mafia has it in for us and has rigged the games against us. Losing one run games like crazy. Not getting pitch calls. Next time we win it all, I'm projecting the next year to be not in the playoffs. The game is stacked against us.

    In terms of 2016, it is real tough to see that far ahead but Cechinni is not looking even like a starter at this point but the pitchers are lining up to be significant contributors and Mookie looks for real even in his limited time in AAA. I have lots of hope for Swihart also. Other than that, I don't know if any are likely to be starting level players by 2016. And as much as I like JBJ, the numbers are not his friend so far in the last 1.5 years of baseball. He is a low cost defensive OF as of now. I'm hopeful his plus intangibles pay off for him in the future with continued improvement. 

    Fortunately some money will become available. Will we spend it is the question as top talent is by no means cheap. For example Tanaka was for real. Would we be willing to go there if such an opportunity does come up again for a stud like him?

    [/QUOTE]


    Cecchini is having a tough year, but a .345 OBP for a "tough year" is not that bad.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd still like Xander to be our SS. It just opens up the lineup for a bopper at 3rd. And we need that bopper at 3rd.

    [/QUOTE]


    Who? HanRam?

    I'm OK with Bogey at SS, if the best way to find a bopper is at 3B, but I think OF is the most likely upgrade slot to start with.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    I would switch Vasquez and Swihart on that depth list.  Not now, but if we are looking ahead to 2016 I think Swihart gives us much more to dream on.  He really seems to have almost put it all together.  His K/BB rate could still use a little improvement.  But he can hit for average, he can hit for power, and he can catch.  In a recent Baseball America chat it was stated that Swihart is in serious contention for being the top catching prospect in all the minors right now.  Of course, he might not ever reach his true potential, but if we are going to look ahead 2 years....I like to dream big with Swihart behind the plate with an above average bat, and glove for the position...and that is rare behind the plate.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Javi60. Show Javi60's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Assuming no players are extended or re-signed, here is the way I see how our prospects could/should be aligned by position. I took the liberty of placing a ______ where I think a free agent might be signed or one of our current players are continued.

     

    C:  Vazquez, Swihart (Lava/Butler)

     

    1B: _______, Middy, Carp,T Shaw (Cecchini?)

     

    2B: Pedroia, Coyle, Rijo (Betts)

     

    3B: Bogaerts (Middy), Holt

     

    SS: _______, Marrero, Holt

     

    LF: Cecchini, (Holt?), Nava, Hassan

     

    CF: JBJ, Ramos (Margot)

     

    RF: Betts, Brentz

     

    DH: Rotate: Cecchini, Betts, Holt, or Middy

     

    SP: _______, _______, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Mercedes, L Diaz

     

    RP: _______, _______, Tazawa, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirez

     

    I see a lot of hope in our prospects. I know some of the names above will not pan out, but then again, some players not listed here that are currently in our system could rise qucikly and surprise us by being an impact player by 2016 or 2017.

     

    I like the fact that we have at least 8 starting pitchers fighting to earn three rotation slots. 

     

    I like how our OF could turn into an offensive force with the addtions of Betts and possibly Cecchini and Holt.

     

    Our IF defense could be sharp with Pedey at 2B, Marrero at SS and Bogey at 3B, and possibly Middy or Cecchini at 1B.

     

    With all the money coming off the books over the next 2 years, we should be able to fill the 6 slots I left open with some very well paid free agents, if needed. We may end up needing more than the 6 I listed, but there should be budget space for that too.

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    With all due respect Moon, pls get Carp out of even next year picture... Why not Lester?...he desrves as much as a good deal as Pedey, for less time of course, a 5 year deal is good enough inmo...Middy good for a trade...glad you focusing 2016, that is my beat too... If FO does not go Liverpool, Sox should win at least 3 out 5... Regretfully I wont see it ( I saw the '46 sries) lol

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would switch Vasquez and Swihart on that depth list.  Not now, but if we are looking ahead to 2016 I think Swihart gives us much more to dream on.  He really seems to have almost put it all together.  His K/BB rate could still use a little improvement.  But he can hit for average, he can hit for power, and he can catch.  In a recent Baseball America chat it was stated that Swihart is in serious contention for being the top catching prospect in all the minors right now.  Of course, he might not ever reach his true potential, but if we are going to look ahead 2 years....I like to dream big with Swihart behind the plate with an above average bat, and glove for the position...and that is rare behind the plate.

    [/QUOTE]


    Agreed, I think Swihart has a better chance of getting more PAs in 2016 than Vazquez.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    With all due respect Moon, pls get Carp out of even next year picture...

    I'm not counting on Carp for more than anything but a sub-roleplayer.

    Why not Lester?...he desrves as much as a good deal as Pedey, for less time of course, a 5 year deal is good enough inmo...

    The blanks on my roster are for signing players like Lester or Lester himself. I have stated several times that I want Lester back. My suggested offer of $100M/5 is more than the reporte3d Sox offer.

    Middy good for a trade...

    I disagree. His stock is about as low as it has ever been. I suggested trading him 2 years ago, 1 year ago, but do not think now is the time, unless some team makes a nice offer.

    glad you focusing 2016, that is my beat too...

    I think we could have a good shot at 2015 with some key moves and signings as well as some prospects filling some slots at low cost.

    If FO does not go Liverpool, Sox should win at least 3 out 5...

    I'm happy with 3 every 10 years.

    Regretfully I wont see it ( I saw the '46 sries) lol

    Wow!

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to J-BAY's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ‏@alexspeier
    Red Sox signed 11th rounder Karsten Whitson - former Padres 1st rounder - for $100K. He was up to 96 mph w/88 mph slider in ACC Tournament

    [/QUOTE]

    Try the SEC tourn. He's worth the 100k but not a penny more. Lots of issues....

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: A Look Ahead to 2016

    In response to dannycater's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to J-BAY's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    ‏@alexspeier
    Red Sox signed 11th rounder Karsten Whitson - former Padres 1st rounder - for $100K. He was up to 96 mph w/88 mph slider in ACC Tournament

    [/QUOTE]


    Gotta luv it

    [/QUOTE]

    Is he related to Ed Whitson?

    [/QUOTE]

    He's Ed's son. Was a huge prospect 4 yrs ago but has many shoulder and arm issues since then at UF..

     
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