A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    AL Central: One will win the division; the other will compete for the WC.

    CWS 60-48
    5/14 in runs scored (514) 7th in OPS .742
    5/14 in runs allowed (448) 4th in WHIP 1.26
    Net: +66
    Strength: .781-.900 OPS 3-6 slot. Solid 2-3 starters.
    Weakness: .296 OBP in 2 slot. Struggle vs LHB's.

    Detroit 59-50
    7/14 in runs scored (503) 3rd in OPS .763
    7/14 in runs allowed (474) 8th in WHIP 1.31
    Net: +29
    Strength: 3 slot .967 OPS, 4 slot .918 OPS, 1st slot .388 OBP. Verlander.
    Weakness: 5-9 slots have 4 slots under .679. 2-5 slot SPs. 

    AL West: One will win the division; two may compete for the WC.

    Texas 63-45 
    1/14 in runs scored (550) 2nd in OPS .785
    8/4 in runs allowed (474) 5th in WHIP 1.27
    1st in Net: +76
    Strength: Bal. line-up (vs L&R) and 1-9 all over .740 OPS. Few injuries.
    Weakness: Away offense (-.072 OPS vs home). Shaky top slot starters.

    LAA  59-51
    6/14 in runs scored (512) 3rd in OPS .764
    6/14 in runs allowed (459) 6th in WHIP 1.29
    2nd in Net: +53
    Strength: Top 2 starters. 3-5 slots with 20+ HRs.
    Weakness: Bottom 3 starters. Weak 8-9 slot offense.

    Oak 58-51
    14/14 in runs scored (430) 12th in OPS .709
    1/14 in runs allowed (409) 3rd in WHIP 1.24
    Net: +21
    Strength: 3-7 slots 15+ HRs. Pitching (helped by park)
    Weakness: 7 of 9 slots under .322 OBP & .722 OPS.

    AL East: Yankess likely to win division; several others may compete for WC.

    Balt 58-51
    10/14 in runs scored (447) 11th in OPS .709
    9/14 in runs allowed (502) 10th in WHIP 1.33
    Net: -55
    Strength: Top 2 starters. 1-7 slots 11+ HRs.
    Weakness: Bottom 3 starters. 1-3 slots under .307 OBP. Away OPs -.069.

    TBR 56-52
    13/14 in runs scored (434) 13th in OPS .679
    2/14 in runs allowed (415)  3rd in WHIP 1.24
    Net: +19
    Strength: 4 starters with 20+ GS & under 4.24 ERA (home park helps)
    Weakness: Vs RHPs -.070 OPS. 6 of 9 slots under .306 OBP. Only 2 slots have an OPS above .711 & none above .790.

    Bos 55-55
    2/14 in runs scored (539) 3rd in OPS .763
    10/14 runs allowed (503) 8th in WHIP 1.31
    4th in Net: +36
    Strength: .754+ OPS vs LHPs & RHPs. 7 of 9 slots 11+ HRs. Bench.
    Weakness: -.086 OPS away. OBP .317 slots 1&2. Starting Pitchers. BS%

    As you can see, every team here has weakness that can be exploited. I'm sure all of these teams have blogs where posters are roasting their players, managers, GMs or weak links.

    WC Standings:
    Det/LAA    --
    Bal/Oak  -.05
    TBR        -2.0
    Bos         -4.0
    Tor         -5.0

    Schedule:
    Boston ends with 6 vs Bal, 6 vs TB & 3 vs NYY.
    TBR: starting Aug 27th, TB has a rough ending. 6 vs TEX, 7 TOR, 6 NYY, 6 Bal, & 4 @ CWS
    Bal ends with 3@Oak, 3@Sea, 6 vs BOS, 3 vs TBR & TOR.

    Tex: 7 Oak, 6 LAA, & 6 Sea.
    LAA: 6 TEX, 6 Sea, 4 Oak, & 3 CWS
    Oak: 6 TEX, 6 Sea, 4 Oak, 3 CWS, & 3 @KCR

    CWS: 6 CLE, 4 DET, 4 TBR, 3@ LAA, 3@ KCR, & 3@ MN
    DET: 7 KCR, 6 MN, 3 Oak, 3 @ LAA, 4 @ CWS, & 3 @ CLE

    There could be a lot of beating each other up, and we could see a team make the playoffs with just 89-90 wins.

    If the number is 89, the Sox would have to go 34-18. We probably have to go 36-16 or better to have a real shot.

    We have a very difficult schedule to do that. Here's what we'd have to do team by team:
                          At worst  Probable to have a legitimate shot
    NYY 9 (3H/6A)  5-4         6-3
    BAL 9 (3H/6A)  6-3         6-3
    TBR 6 (2H/4A)  4-2         4-2
    TOR 6 (3H/3A)  4-2         4-2
    LAA 6 (3H/3A)  4-2         4-2
    KCR 4 (home)   3-1         4-0
    CLE 4 (away)    3-1          3-1
    Oak 3 (away)    2-1          2-1
    SEA 3 (away)    2-1          2-1
    Tex 2 (home)    1-1          1-1

    Looking at the above numbers looks frightening to me. I'm trying to stay positive, but this is a rough ending to the season. We could back into the last WC slot if a couple teams get hot (namely TEX or LAA but not both or DET or CWS but not both) and beat our competitors badly.

     




     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    First of all, last year Boston had one of the easiest schedule of all wildcard teams from the month of August to September.  I projected Boston that they could  try to regain games on the Yankees to try to over take the Yankees for the division title base on looking at Boston's schedule.  Somehow I got it all wrong.  And what is worst that Boston didnt even make into the playoff.

    Schedule sometime do not favor one team to another lately.  Especially for having two teams to get to play in one game wildcard playoff.

    Quit looking at schedule.....Boston just have to keep winning the series for every series that they are in for the rest of the season!!
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bisson1. Show Bisson1's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    What worries me is all the games remaining against the Angels, Rangers, Yankees, Rays, and the pesky Orioles.....

    It will take a phenomenal run and Beckett/Lester will have to get their act together and pitch like they're capable off. The Angels or Tigers won't be easy to beat out, and with Longoria returning the Rays should improve aswell. 

    Like what I'm seeing from the duo of Ellsbury and Crawford atop the lineup, they will be critical to the teams success. When hot they make the Sox a tough club to beat.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    Moon, Baltimore's runs allowed should be 502, which gives them a run differential of -55 and a Pythagorean W-L record of 49-60, which makes their 7 games above .500 record rather amazing.

    Add to that, they are 21-6 in one run games and 11-2 in extra inning games, both of which defy the odds.

    I would say they have been more than a bit "lucky", and we should see them fading. Of course, I've been thinking that for a while, and there they still sit, in 2nd place....
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]First of all, last year Boston had one of the easiest schedule of all wildcard teams from the month of August to September.  I projected Boston that they could  try to regain games on the Yankees to try to over take the Yankees for the division title base on looking at Boston's schedule.  Somehow I got it all wrong.  And what is worst that Boston didnt even make into the playoff. Schedule sometime do not favor one team to another lately.  Especially for having two teams to get to play in one game wildcard playoff. Quit looking at schedule.....Boston just have to keep winning the series for every series that they are in for the rest of the season!!
    Posted by GoUconn13[/QUOTE]

    The Red Sox have had a better time of beating the good teams than they have the bad teams lately.

    I agree, take it one game at a time and win series.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    I wouldn't count Toronto out just yet. Cleveland is in freefall, losing 10 in a row, but they could just as easily win 10 in a row.
    Lots of baseball yet to play.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    My concern is that the Tigers and Angels were already better than their winning percentage prior to the deadline.  The Angels were at .540, due in large part to a Pujols slump that is now in the past.  The Tigers also underperformed up until the deadline.

    I dont think its wise to predict that their winning percentage would stay at .540.  Then both teams went out and got much better at the deadline.  The AL is absolutely stacked this year.  LAA, Detroit, CWS, Texas, NYY are all really good teams.  Its going to be a tough climb for sure.  Its doable, but we are going to need a serious run.

    I think our best shot is for Detroit to run away with the division and have the CWS go on a losing streak.  Then we may be able to grab the second WC spot (with the angels grabbing the other one). 

    We're probably going to have to play .600 ball (at least) hereon to have a shot at making it.  I dont think its impossible, but it is going to be tough.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    Im not even considering the O's, Toronto and A's because LAA, Tex, Detroit are all much better.  As I mentioned, there is a chance that CWS fades and Detroit runs away the division.  But CWS would have to fade to the point where we pass them , and even if that happens, we'd have to beat O's Tor, and A's for the remaining spot.

    I cant see LAA not making the playoffs.  Their lineup is fearsome (Trumbo, Trout, Pujols, Kendrick, Hunter) and their rotation is elite (Weaver, Wilson, Greinke, Haren)

    IMO , its us vs everyone else for the final WC spot.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    We weren't one of the 5 Top Teams going into the season and we most certainly aren't a top 5 team today.  It's not that hard to figure out. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]Moon, Baltimore's runs allowed should be 502, which gives them a run differential of -55 and a Pythagorean W-L record of 49-60, which makes their 7 games above .500 record rather amazing. Add to that, they are 21-6 in one run games and 11-2 in extra inning games, both of which defy the odds. I would say they have been more than a bit "lucky", and we should see them fading. Of course, I've been thinking that for a while, and there they still sit, in 2nd place....
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]

    They have a good MGR. The team that's really looking at a gift horse in the mouth is OAK. How many walk offs do they have? (And notice that Coco was involved often). RS can do it if their starters remember they were good once. Hitting doesn't seem to be an issue. C DEF is.Their biggest competitors, in the order shown:

    1. Loser of AL West (Prob LAA)
    2. Oak
    3. 2nd best team in ALE (whoever that is, prob TB)

    IMO, forget about CHW (Det shall win Central), Tor & Clev.

    There's the rub: OAK SP has to come back to earth, BOS SP has to get off the schneid.

    I guess that's why there's the old saying pitching is 75-90 % of the game.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    I think the Red Sox need to not worry about what someone else does, and my guess would be that Bobby and the players realize this. In order for the Sox to make the playoffs they will need to play some amazing baseball for the rest of the season. The good news is that they are probably capable of a run like that, if Beckett and Lester can remember how to pitch. (Witness last summer) I personally will hold out hope for my team until they are mathematically eliminated.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]AL Central : One will win the division; the other will compete for the WC. CWS 60-48 5/14 in runs scored (514) 7th in OPS .742 5/14 in runs allowed (448) 4th in WHIP 1.26 Net: +66 Strength: .781-.900 OPS 3-6 slot. Solid 2-3 starters. Weakness: .296 OBP in 2 slot. Struggle vs LHB's. Detroit 59-50 7/14 in runs scored (503) 3rd in OPS .763 7/14 in runs allowed (474) 8th in WHIP 1.31 Net: +29 Strength: 3 slot .967 OPS, 4 slot .918 OPS, 1st slot .388 OBP. Verlander. Weakness: 5-9 slots have 4 slots under .679. 2-5 slot SPs.  AL West : One will win the division; two may compete for the WC. Texas 63-45  1/14 in runs scored (550) 2nd in OPS .785 8/4 in runs allowed (474) 5th in WHIP 1.27 1st in Net: +76 Strength: Bal. line-up (vs L&R) and 1-9 all over .740 OPS. Few injuries. Weakness: Away offense (-.072 OPS vs home). Shaky top slot starters. LAA  59-51 6/14 in runs scored (512) 3rd in OPS .764 6/14 in runs allowed (459) 6th in WHIP 1.29 2nd in Net: +53 Strength: Top 2 starters. 3-5 slots with 20+ HRs. Weakness: Bottom 3 starters. Weak 8-9 slot offense. Oak 58-51 14/14 in runs scored (430) 12th in OPS .709 1/14 in runs allowed (409) 3rd in WHIP 1.24 Net: +21 Strength: 3-7 slots 15+ HRs. Pitching (helped by park) Weakness: 7 of 9 slots under .322 OBP & .722 OPS. AL East : Yankess likely to win division; several others may compete for WC. Balt 58-51 10/14 in runs scored (447) 11th in OPS .709 9/14 in runs allowed (409) 10th in WHIP 1.33 3rd in Net: +38 Strength: Top 2 starters. 1-7 slots 11+ HRs. Weakness: Bottom 3 starters. 1-3 slots under .307 OBP. Away OPs -.069. TBR 56-52 13/14 in runs scored (434) 13th in OPS .679 2/14 in runs allowed (415)  3rd in WHIP 1.24 Net: +19 Strength: 4 starters with 20+ GS & under 4.24 ERA (home park helps) Weakness: Vs RHPs -.070 OPS. 6 of 9 slots under .306 OBP. Only 2 slots have an OPS above .711 & none above .790. Bos 55-55 2/14 in runs scored (539) 3rd in OPS .763 10/14 runs allowed (503) 8th in WHIP 1.31 4th in Net: +36 Strength: .754+ OPS vs LHPs & RHPs. 7 of 9 slots 11+ HRs. Bench. Weakness: -.086 OPS away. OBP .317 slots 1&2. Starting Pitchers. BS% As you can see, every team here has weakness that can be exploited. I'm sure all of these teams have blogs where posters are roasting their players, managers, GMs or weak links. WC Standings: Det/LAA    -- Bal/Oak  -.05 TBR        -2.0 Bos         -4.0 Tor         -5.0 Schedule: Boston ends with 6 vs Bal, 6 vs TB & 3 vs NYY. TBR: starting Aug 27th, TB has a rough ending. 6 vs TEX, 7 TOR, 6 NYY, 6 Bal, & 4 @ CWS Bal ends with 3@Oak, 3@Sea, 6 vs BOS, 3 vs TBR & TOR. Tex: 7 Oak, 6 LAA, & 6 Sea. LAA: 6 TEX, 6 Sea, 4 Oak, & 3 CWS Oak: 6 TEX, 6 Sea, 4 Oak, 3 CWS, & 3 @KCR CWS: 6 CLE, 4 DET, 4 TBR, 3@ LAA, 3@ KCR, & 3@ MN DET: 7 KCR, 6 MN, 3 Oak, 3 @ LAA, 4 @ CWS, & 3 @ CLE There could be a lot of beating each other up, and we could see a team make the playoffs with just 89-90 wins. If the number is 89, the Sox would have to go 34-18. We probably have to go 36-16 or better to have a real shot. We have a very difficult schedule to do that. Here's what we'd have to do t eam by team:                       At worst  Probable to have a legitimate shot NYY 9 (3H/6A)  5-4         6-3 BAL 9 (3H/6A)  6-3         6-3 TBR 6 (2H/4A)  4-2         4-2 TOR 6 (3H/3A)  4-2         4-2 LAA 6 (3H/3A)  4-2         4-2 KCR 4 (home)   3-1         4-0 CLE 4 (away)    3-1          3-1 Oak 3 (away)    2-1          2-1 SEA 3 (away)    2-1          2-1 Tex 2 (home)    1-1          1-1 Looking at the above numbers looks frightening to me. I'm trying to stay positive, but this is a rough ending to the season. We could back into the last WC slot if a couple teams get hot (namely TEX or LAA but not both or DET or CWS but not both) and beat our competitors badly.  
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    moon - All those numbers don't mean anything. The Red Sox run differential is high comparatively. Why? Blowout wins and close losses.

    The bottom line is W-L and the Red Sox have shown no ability to go 34-18 over any stretch. They haven't done it in year.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]Moon, Baltimore's runs allowed should be 502, which gives them a run differential of -55 and a Pythagorean W-L record of 49-60, which makes their 7 games above .500 record rather amazing. Add to that, they are 21-6 in one run games and 11-2 in extra inning games, both of which defy the odds. I would say they have been more than a bit "lucky", and we should see them fading. Of course, I've been thinking that for a while, and there they still sit, in 2nd place....
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]

    Thanks. I went back and corrected my post.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]I wouldn't count Toronto out just yet. Cleveland is in freefall, losing 10 in a row, but they could just as easily win 10 in a row. Lots of baseball yet to play.
    Posted by harv53[/QUOTE]


    True, but as hard as it will be for the Sox to make the WC, it will be one game harder for the Jays.

    Good point though. They are still in it. Any of these teams are an 8 or 9 game win streak away from being in the top 2 afterwards.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    We're probably going to have to play .600 ball (at least) hereon to have ashot at making it.  I dont think its impossible, but it is going to be tough.- Drewski5

    .600 ball is 31-21 and just 86 wins: not even close.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    Moon -

    I appreciate the research to compile all of this and the time it took to post. Definitely worthwhile (and necessary information) when analyzing the Sox postseason hopes. I personally declared this team dead at the AS break - and again at the deadline - but I will humor the chance that they make the post season. 

    The most likely to claim WC Spots (in my order of likelihood - predicting Tex/CWS division winners)

    LAA
    DET
    BOS
    TB
    BAL
    OAK
    TOR

    I think Angels and Tigers are a step above the Sox now - TB and Oakland lack the offense - BAL and TOR lacks the pitching...

    I think the Sox will fall short - barring a dramatic upswing in performance

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]We're probably going to have to play .600 ball (at least) hereon to have a shot  at making it.  I dont think its impossible, but it is going to be tough.- Drewski5 .600 ball is 31-21 and just 86 wins: not even close.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    But with the newly second wildcard spot, 86 wins may get them in.

    Never know!!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    In Response to Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors:
    [QUOTE]In Response to A Look at the Wild Card Competitors : moon - All those numbers don't mean anything. The Red Sox run differential is high comparatively. Why? Blowout wins and close losses. The bottom line is W-L and the Red Sox have shown no ability to go 34-18 over any stretch. They haven't done it in year.
    Posted by ADG[/QUOTE]

    Good point, but I just have a feeling we have a great stretch in us.

    Last year we had a .556 winning %.
    Although we went 7-20 to end the year, the same team also had had these hiot streaks:
    8-1 in a strecth inApril.
    13-2 in a stretch in May.
    9-0 (12-1 same stretch) in a stretch June.
    13-2 (17-3 same stretch) in a stretch in July.
    5-1 twice in August.

    This year's team is not that different from 2011's, especially if Papi returns and everyone else stays healthy.

    We've won 6 in a row once (7 out of 8) in April.
    We went 6-1 (9-2 same stretch) in May.
    We went 7-1 (9-2 & 11-3 same stretch) in June.
    4-1 in July.
    4-0 in July.

    We may not have a nice stretch in us, but I do not think it is being overly optimistic to think we have one long one in us this year with near everyone healthy soon.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    I appreciate the research to compile all of this and the time it took to post. Definitely worthwhile (and necessary information) when analyzing the Sox postseason hopes. I personally declared this team dead at the AS break - and again at the deadline - but I will humor the chance that they make the post season. 

    The most likely to claim WC Spots (in my order of likelihood - predicting Tex/CWS division winners)

    LAA
    DET
    BOS
    TB
    BAL
    OAK
    TOR

    I think Angels and Tigers are a step above the Sox now - TB and Oakland lack the offense - BAL and TOR lacks the pitching...

    I think the Sox will fall short - barring a dramatic upswing in performance

    I agree with your odds order, except maybe flip Oak & Balt.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Look at the Wild Card Competitors

    But with the newly second wildcard spot, 86 wins may get them in.

    Never know!!

    While certainly true, 4 teams are on pace for over 86 wins, but your point is well taken since 2 of them (Bal/Oak) are on pace for 86.184 wins.

    AL :
    #5 team's win total

    2011 90 (Sox)
    2010 88 (CWS)
    2009 87 (TEX)
    2008 89 (NYY)
    2007 88 (Sea/Det)
    2006 89 (LAA)
    2005 93 (CLE)
    2004 91 (Oak)
    2003 93 (SEA)

    Seems like there is more parity than 2003-2005.
     
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