A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Here's a preliminary comparitive look at 2013 as compared to 2012 (offense only):

    2012 by position: (PAs)

    C   .215/.279/.429/.708  ( Salty 388, Shopp 155, Lava 99)

    1B .289/.337/.459/.795  (AGon 455, Loney 104, Gomez 58, Youk 44, Papi 30)

    2B .281/.337/.431/.768  (Pedey 615, Ciriaco 47, Punto 42)

    3B .257/.303/.400/.703  (Midd 279, Ciriaco 136, Youk 120, Punto 67, DV 28)

    SS .241/.278/.365/.642   (Aviles 517, Iggy 76, Ciriaco 40, Punto 20)

    LF .267/.332/.411/.744  (Nava 288, Pods 116, CC 124, Ross 73, DMac 65)

    CF .264/.299/.354/.654  (Ells 318, Byrd 101, Pods 74, Kalish 65, Sween 61)

    RF .261/.319/.431/.751  (Ross 374, Sween 152, AGon 65, Kalish 30)

    DH .278/.360/.473/.833  (Papi 351, Lava 65, Ross 53, Salty 47, Ciriaco 37)

     

    A quick look at 2013 (I will do a complete analysis this spring):

    Stats are OPS from 2011-2012 combined, unless otherwise noted.

     

    Catcher (.708 in 2012):

    Salty vs RHPs .782

    Ross vs LHPs .674   (vs RHPs .826) - could see Salty traded and Lava vs LHPs.

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but Ross will not likely macth Shopp's O.

     

    1B (.795 in 2012):

    Napoli vs RHPs .955/vs LHPs .879

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but can he get 650 PAs?

     

    2B (.768 in '12):

    Pedey vs RHPs .789/vs LHPs .934

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    3B (.703 in '12):

    Middlebrooks vs RHPs .798/vs LHPs .906

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but much is unknown.

     

    SS (.642 in '12)

    S Drew .714 /vs LHPs.617

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but...

     

    LF (.744 in '12):

    Nava vs RHPs  .797

    Gomes vs LHPs .935

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    CF (.654 in '12):

    Ells vs RHPs .886 / vs LHPs .774

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    RF (.751 in '12):

    Victorino vs RHPs .705 /vs LHPs .960

    * Some potenetial for gains here.

     

    DH (.833 in '12):

    Papi vs RHPs .977 /vs LHPs .988

    * Much potenetial for gains here if Papi can stay healthy.

     

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    The biggest number for me is if I care or not. I spent most of my life from early childhood to senior citizen deeply caring for the Boston Red Sox, they were my number one.  Last year drove me away. I quit caring.  This years team got me caring again. 

    I am not much of a numbers guy. I just really like to see good baseball. My sense is this years teams will play good baseball.   

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to proftom2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The biggest number for me is if I care or not. I spent most of my life from early childhood to senior citizen deeply caring for the Boston Red Sox, they were my number one.  Last year drove me away. I quit caring.  This years team got me caring again. 

    I am not much of a numbers guy. I just really like to see good baseball. My sense is this years teams will play good baseball.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Well stated.

    A lot of people think that because I enjoy stats so much, I may not appreciate just watching "good baseball". I love baseball and played for many many years before switching to softball when my knee gave out.

    I will enjoy watching this year's team. It should be fun. I will also try to catch some Sea Dog games when in Maine this summer.

    I can pretty easily seperate my frustration for what "might have been " or "should have been" from just sitting down and watching a game.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Moon I agree much upside and they added "GOOD" guys Who will hustle. Napoli, Drew, Dempster, Ross, ureyha (sp) and Victorino who will leave it all out on the field. Many here say they need Dirt Dogs well they have signed IMHO nothing but DDs.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Napoli cannot leave anything let alone everything on the field if he cannot play.... another gaffe by the positive fan jim

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon I agree much upside and they added "GOOD" guys Who will hustle. Napoli, Drew, Dempster, Ross, ureyha (sp) and Victorino who will leave it all out on the field. Many here say they need Dirt Dogs well they have signed IMHO nothing but DDs.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not into all that DD stuff as much as others. Many a team has won with quite laid back players who give it their all without the theatrics.

    I'll take a clam and cool Manny at bat in the bottom of the 9nt over a hyper-reactive Trot Nixon or Kevin Youkilis any day. Sometimes the hysterics can be a negative influence on a team (see the Youk- Manny dugout confrontation).

    I hear what you are saying, though. By and large, it is prefeable to have go getters on your team than the emotionless JD Drew types.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Last year's team lost 93 games.  Of course there is potential for improvement - I'm not sure it requires a ton of statistical analysis.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Didn't last years team never win more than 5 in a row? You guys will wet your pants when this bologna team wins 8 in a row.... it won't amount to much though.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Last year's team lost 93 games.  Of course there is potential for improvement - I'm not sure it requires a ton of statistical analysis.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I still think that without a major addition to our rotation, we will need a miraculous confluence of chance to occur to help us win over 86-88 games (the minimum expected to have a chance at a wildcard playoff slot).

    This is about our offense.

    The 2012 numbers were also greatly effected by the big trade and injuries to Ellsbury, CC, Middlebrooks, and AGon playing in RF. On paper, I think our offense looked better last winter than this one, so you are right: statistical analysis is not "required" to know we should get better than a team that had Loney, Lava and others dragging down the 2012 numbers. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli cannot leave anything let alone everything on the field if he cannot play.... another gaffe by the positive fan jim

    [/QUOTE]

    Why is it a gaffe other than your thoughts? 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Right now - barring moves from the front office - the Sox will need a "miraculous confluence of events" (moon) That is spot on.

    Some kid is going to have to make the team and then shock the league.  Middlebrooks is going to have to go crazy.  Ells will need an MVP type year.  Lester will have to be the best LH in baseball. 

    Things along those lines. 

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Right now - barring moves from the front office - the Sox will need a miraculous confluence of events.  That is spot on.

    Some kid is going to have to make the team and then shock the league.  Middlebrooks is going to have to go crazy.  Ells will need an MVP type year.  Lester will have to be the best LH in baseball. 

    Things along those lines. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Maybe 2 of those 3 might be enough...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Smartacus. Show Smartacus's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Right now - barring moves from the front office - the Sox will need a "miraculous confluence of events" (moon) That is spot on.

    Some kid is going to have to make the team and then shock the league.  Middlebrooks is going to have to go crazy.  Ells will need an MVP type year.  Lester will have to be the best LH in baseball. 

    Things along those lines. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, there is a chance.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Technically therte is always a chance.

    However - the chance of Gomes having a "great" year is statistically close to zero. 

    The chance of a young OF shocking the league is still very low but higher than zero.

    I put Napoli, Dempster, and Victorino much closer to zero than a rookie.  Drew?  Closer to zero than one of the rooks.

    Don't get me wrong - the rookies are long shots too.  But the rookies have a much better chance to improve and outperform expectations than older, mediocre players.

    I have no problem with saying "we are rebuilding and saving money."   But the sox aren't doing either of those things.

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Here's a preliminary comparitive look at 2013 as compared to 2012 (offense only):

     

     

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

    [/QUOTE]


    Welcome back to the light, my friend!  ;-)))

    I've been thinking the same about the offense and it's nice to see it laid out in simple terms.  I am concerned about Papi's heel, and it would be devastating if he's unable to play much/well.  I also don't think he will reach last years 1.000+ OPS, but half the 2012 DH ABs were terrible.

    Re defense....it's not going to be a great year.  As it stands today, 9, 8, and 4 should be outstanding, and 6 should be good and steady so the key non-catcher postions are a strength.  2 ,3, 5, & 7 are a worry.  Ross will be excellent in his 50(?) games and hopefully he'll help continue Salty's improvement.  Napoli is not a 1B, Midds was shaky last year, and Gomes is here to club LHPs.  A couple of good fielding platoon players for 7 & 5 would make me happier.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Technically therte is always a chance.

    However - the chance of Gomes having a "great" year is statistically close to zero. 

    The chance of a young OF shocking the league is still very low but higher than zero.

    I put Napoli, Dempster, and Victorino much closer to zero than a rookie.  Drew?  Closer to zero than one of the rooks.

    Don't get me wrong - the rookies are long shots too.  But the rookies have a much better chance to improve and outperform expectations than older, mediocre players.

    I have no problem with saying "we are rebuilding and saving money."   But the sox aren't doing either of those things.

    [/QUOTE]

    I realise you are the arch-pessimist around here, but your lack of knowledge of and respect for the new guys is shocking.  No one is claiming they are elite players but neither are they bums nor are they particularly old.  

    Over the past three seasons they have totalled 1 GG, 2 AS appearances and 9 playoff appearances.   Ross is one of the best in the league at his (part time) position.  Napoi's OPS was 1.046 way back in 2011.  Gomes has a career OPS of nearly .900 vs LHP.  Etc.  They all carry MLB value yet you treat them like they are more career minor leaguers like Nava, Ciriaco, Gomez, etc.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    How am I an "arch-pessimist?"

    I am optimistic about the ability of young players to outperform projections.

     

    Gomes has NO CHANCE to play better than projected (mediocrity at best)

    Napoli had 80 hits and batted .227 - you think he'll bat higher now that he is a year older and gimpy?

    Dempster is going to get better at his age?  Drew who has declined every year - is now going to get better?

    Go with Kalish, Boagerts, Lavarnaway, etc.  They at least have a chance to improve. 

    If you bring in veterans - they have to be excellent players much better than youth - or you are wasting $$$.  These guys are not WAY better than the youth. 

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    As usual good analysis Moon.....I choose to be optimistic......Offensively, we can definitely improve dramatically, if only through Healthy years from Papi, Pedey, Ells and Middlebrooks......that takes some good fortune, by why jinx it by being pessimistic. I think the Bullpen, with Uehara, the emergence of Tazawa, presumably Morales back in the pen and possibly Farrell getting the old Bard back could be significantly better 1 thru 7, with depth in the Minors.....the rotation is the rub....I was deeply against the Dempster signing, but he is now on the team and I will give him the benefit of the doubt....as will I with Lackey coming off the injury....his past performance with us is history until he begins repeating it.....Lester, Buch, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, sounds like it could be weak, but all have shown the ability to win at one time or another....would 18, 15, 14, 13 and 10 wins be improbable, probably, but all of them have won better than that number before, so I wouldnt say that would be a miraculous confluence......thats 70 wins from the Top 5 starters.....you need health....you need some good managing....you need the improved offense you mentioned and you need a team attitude which thinks they are winners again and not losers.....we need them to be the optimists.....would I want a dominant #1 or #2 type pitcher.....yes, who wouldnt....but I rooted for them and watched them not win a WS for 37 years....I think I can be patient and optimistic until we see what the product starts doing on the fiels in April/May. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How am I an "arch-pessimist?"

    I am optimistic about the ability of young players to outperform projections.

     

    Gomes has NO CHANCE to play better than projected (mediocrity at best)

    Napoli had 80 hits and batted .227 - you think he'll bat higher now that he is a year older and gimpy?

    Dempster is going to get better at his age?  Drew who has declined every year - is now going to get better?

    Go with Kalish, Boagerts, Lavarnaway, etc.  They at least have a chance to improve. 

    If you bring in veterans - they have to be excellent players much better than youth - or you are wasting $$$.  These guys are not WAY better than the youth. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Still with the BA and hit totals....and you want to be taken seriously? Why not bore on about how Teddy Ballgame only only had 82 hits in 1950?

    How has Drew "declined every year"?  He broke his leg in July 2011....btw, he only had 64 hits in 2012.  The "annual decline" is false, so stop writing that.

    Bogaerts?  You want to put a guy with 23 AA games under his belt in the Major Leagues?  That's absurd.  Lavarnway?  He's about 27 months younger than Salty and failed miserably in his brief 2012 MLB season.  Kalish?    He only had 57 hits last year including the minors!  How could you of all people support someone that only had 57 hits in a season?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    It's funny but it was moon back before the changeover who was clinging on to some promise here, then I guess while I was gone from the room (more so because of the horrible looking format of the room), moon appeared to become increasingly incensed with the high-priced moves for marginal talent. And I'm like looking at the pitching staff from different angles, and it still appears to have a lot of promise. So if some of these newbies can hit their weight and get on base in the low .300s, maybe we have something here. Who knows. Farrell could turn it around and the team could be a 90-win team. Stranger things have happened. Or they could finish 20 under and everyone will be correct when they say Ben will be the next to be canned.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    It's funny but it was moon back before the changeover who was clinging on to some promise here, then I guess while I was gone from the room (more so because of the horrible looking format of the room), moon appeared to become increasingly incensed with the high-priced moves for marginal talent. And I'm like looking at the pitching staff from different angles, and it still appears to have a lot of promise. So if some of these newbies can hit their weight and get on base in the low .300s, maybe we have something here. Who knows. Farrell could turn it around and the team could be a 90-win team. Stranger things have happened. Or they could finish 20 under and everyone will be correct when they say Ben will be the next to be canned.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How am I an "arch-pessimist?"

    I am optimistic about the ability of young players to outperform projections.

     

    Gomes has NO CHANCE to play better than projected (mediocrity at best)

    Napoli had 80 hits and batted .227 - you think he'll bat higher now that he is a year older and gimpy?

    Dempster is going to get better at his age?  Drew who has declined every year - is now going to get better?

    Go with Kalish, Boagerts, Lavarnaway, etc.  They at least have a chance to improve. 

    If you bring in veterans - they have to be excellent players much better than youth - or you are wasting $$$.  These guys are not WAY better than the youth. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Perhaps "pessimist" was the wrong word.  "Complainer" is more accurate.  If a Sox rookie has a season in 2013 like Trout's last year you will bitterly complain for years that they should have brought him up sooner.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to tomnev's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As usual good analysis Moon.....I choose to be optimistic......Offensively, we can definitely improve dramatically, if only through Healthy years from Papi, Pedey, Ells and Middlebrooks......that takes some good fortune, by why jinx it by being pessimistic. I think the Bullpen, with Uehara, the emergence of Tazawa, presumably Morales back in the pen and possibly Farrell getting the old Bard back could be significantly better 1 thru 7, with depth in the Minors.....the rotation is the rub....I was deeply against the Dempster signing, but he is now on the team and I will give him the benefit of the doubt....as will I with Lackey coming off the injury....his past performance with us is history until he begins repeating it.....Lester, Buch, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, sounds like it could be weak, but all have shown the ability to win at one time or another....would 18, 15, 14, 13 and 10 wins be improbable, probably, but all of them have won better than that number before, so I wouldnt say that would be a miraculous confluence......thats 70 wins from the Top 5 starters.....you need health....you need some good managing....you need the improved offense you mentioned and you need a team attitude which thinks they are winners again and not losers.....we need them to be the optimists.....would I want a dominant #1 or #2 type pitcher.....yes, who wouldnt....but I rooted for them and watched them not win a WS for 37 years....I think I can be patient and optimistic until we see what the product starts doing on the fiels in April/May. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Even though bullpens are notoriously hard to project, I love what I see. The depth is amazing (12 deep), even if many have big question marks over their heads.

    Assuming the rotation is this:

    1) Lester

    2) Buch

    3) Dempster

    4) Lackey

    5) Doubront

    Our pen looks like this:

    Closer:

    Bailey

    Set-Up:

    Uehara, Aceves, Breslow, Tazawa, Miller, Melancon, Mortensen, Bard, Carpenter, A Wilson 

    Long Relief/6th Starter:

    Morales, de la Rosa, Webster, Wright, Britton

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to dannycater's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's funny but it was moon back before the changeover who was clinging on to some promise here, then I guess while I was gone from the room (more so because of the horrible looking format of the room), moon appeared to become increasingly incensed with the high-priced moves for marginal talent. And I'm like looking at the pitching staff from different angles, and it still appears to have a lot of promise. So if some of these newbies can hit their weight and get on base in the low .300s, maybe we have something here. Who knows. Farrell could turn it around and the team could be a 90-win team. Stranger things have happened. Or they could finish 20 under and everyone will be correct when they say Ben will be the next to be canned.

    [/QUOTE]

    90% of my pessimism stems from a roation that had an ERA over 5.00 and traded away maybe their best "money pitcher" last August. We added Dempster and Lackey.

    I realize our starting 5 could all come together and lead us somewhere nice, but realistically, I think the chances are just as good that...

    Lester does not bounce back.

    Buchholtz continues to have injury or inconsistency issues.

    Lackey never recovers from surgery or his prior decline.

    Doubront repeats his 1.45+ WHIP of 2012.

    Dempster ages and faces tougher offenses and it shows.

     
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