A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moonslav has always been a realist. I refuse to believe that he is now a pessimist. He may indeed to disappointed with some of Ben's moves and none of us know how those moves will pan out.Here is the definition of a pessimist:

    pes·si·mist

    /ˈpɛs ə mɪst/ Show Spelled [pes-uh-mist] Show IPA

    noun 1. a person who habitually sees or anticipates the worst or is disposed to be gloomy. 2. an adherent of the doctrine of pessimism .   Moonslav is NOT disposed to be gloomy or anticipate the worse. To be that way is a character flaw.[/QUOTE]

    I am not predisposed to gloominess, but I do feel it now, so maybe my choice of words was inappropriate.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Dempster is going to get better at his age?  Drew who has declined every year - is now going to get better?

    [/QUOTE]

    That's just a completely wrong statement.  You're misinformed, would be the nice way to put it.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Dempster's ERA by age:

    21-25 (FLA)  4.64

    25-26 (Cin)   6.39

    27-35 (Chi)   3.74

     

    Since 2004 with the Cubs:

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

               3.13                     2.96                                 2.25  

    3.92                                          3.65   3.85

     

                         4.80  4.73                               4.80

     

    From ages 31-35, Ryan has been near or below his career Cubs ERA of 3.74 in 4 of the 5 years.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew's OPS for 2012 was clearly impacted by coming back from injury in mid-season.  His monthly OPS for 2012 shows a steady improvement.

    July .537

    Aug .670

    Sept-Oct .752

    His home run power also improved each month.  In Sept-Oct he had 5 HR in 29 games.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Here's a preliminary comparitive look at 2013 as compared to 2012 (offense only):

    2012 by position: (PAs)

    C   .215/.279/.429/.708  ( Salty 388, Shopp 155, Lava 99)

    1B .289/.337/.459/.795  (AGon 455, Loney 104, Gomez 58, Youk 44, Papi 30)

    2B .281/.337/.431/.768  (Pedey 615, Ciriaco 47, Punto 42)

    3B .257/.303/.400/.703  (Midd 279, Ciriaco 136, Youk 120, Punto 67, DV 28)

    SS .241/.278/.365/.642   (Aviles 517, Iggy 76, Ciriaco 40, Punto 20)

    LF .267/.332/.411/.744  (Nava 288, Pods 116, CC 124, Ross 73, DMac 65)

    CF .264/.299/.354/.654  (Ells 318, Byrd 101, Pods 74, Kalish 65, Sween 61)

    RF .261/.319/.431/.751  (Ross 374, Sween 152, AGon 65, Kalish 30)

    DH .278/.360/.473/.833  (Papi 351, Lava 65, Ross 53, Salty 47, Ciriaco 37)

     

    A quick look at 2013 (I will do a complete analysis this spring):

    Stats are OPS from 2011-2012 combined, unless otherwise noted.

     

    Catcher (.708 in 2012):

    Salty vs RHPs .782

    Ross vs LHPs .674   (vs RHPs .826) - could see Salty traded and Lava vs LHPs.

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but Ross will not likely macth Shopp's O.

     

    1B (.795 in 2012):

    Napoli vs RHPs .955/vs LHPs .879

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but can he get 650 PAs?

     

    2B (.768 in '12):

    Pedey vs RHPs .789/vs LHPs .934

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    3B (.703 in '12):

    Middlebrooks vs RHPs .798/vs LHPs .906

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but much is unknown.

     

    SS (.642 in '12)

    S Drew .714 /vs LHPs.617

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but...

     

    LF (.744 in '12):

    Nava vs RHPs  .797

    Gomes vs LHPs .935

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    CF (.654 in '12):

    Ells vs RHPs .886 / vs LHPs .774

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    RF (.751 in '12):

    Victorino vs RHPs .705 /vs LHPs .960

    * Some potenetial for gains here.

     

    DH (.833 in '12):

    Papi vs RHPs .977 /vs LHPs .988

    * Much potenetial for gains here if Papi can stay healthy.

     

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

    [/QUOTE]

    Every position has the potential for downsides also. Not sure how you include Nava. He's a AAAA player and won't even be on the opening day roster. You are assuming Napoli is healthy, etc. He's obviously not or else they would have introduced him already. And Drew? Don't start. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Looking at it like a stock, no one would want to own it, unless you are Ben Cherington.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Didn't last years team never win more than 5 in a row? You guys will wet your pants when this bologna team wins 8 in a row.... it won't amount to much though.

    [/QUOTE]

    Good point.  Please remind me to not get excited by an 8 game winning streak this year.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Looking at it like a stock, no one would want to own it, unless you are Ben Cherington.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew had a severe injury in mid-2011. 

    You have to look at Drew's 2012 numbers the same way you would look at Ellsbury's.

    If you only look at Ellsbury's yearly OPS he looks like one of the most up and down players in baseball.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Right now - barring moves from the front office - the Sox will need a miraculous confluence of events.  That is spot on.

    Some kid is going to have to make the team and then shock the league.  Middlebrooks is going to have to go crazy.  Ells will need an MVP type year.  Lester will have to be the best LH in baseball. 

    Things along those lines. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Maybe 2 of those 3 might be enough...

    [/QUOTE]


    A had a post similar to this a few weeks back that contained lots of "IF's"....

    The Red Sox were fine offensively last year even without the benefit of Ells - an MVP-level player if he stays on the field. Things really broke down when Papi, Pedey, and WMB all went out. Papi was compiling a great year last year. So the big IF is whether or not we can keep core players on the field for 140 games or more - Papi, Ells, Pedey (not playing through an injury, that does not count), WMB, and even Victorino (who was playing through his own injury last year) and Napoli.


    While it is too much to hope for that they ALL stay healthy, it is also unnecessarily pessimistic to assume that ALL will be hurt again next year at the same time.

    As you point out, Moon, we have had offensive upgrades from last year.


    It would make my year (2013) if Iggy comes to Spring Training and hits .250 while showing patience to draw walks and bunt effectively. Talk about a miraculous event!!!

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Vegas 2013


    Toronto Blue Jays -- 15/2 

    Los Angeles Angels -- 17/2 
    Los Angeles Dodgers -- 17/2 
    Washington Nationals -- 9/1 
    Detroit Tigers -- 10/1 
    Cincinnati Reds -- 12/1 
    Texas Rangers -- 12/1 
    New York Yankees -- 14/1 
    Atlanta Braves -- 16/1 
    Philadelphia Phillies -- 16/1 
    San Francisco Giants -- 16/1 
    Tampa Bay Rays -- 22/1 

    Red Sox 25 to 1

    Odds to win the AL East 
    Blue Jays -- 3/2 
    Yankees -- 19/10 
    Rays -- 5/1 
    Red Sox -- 11/2 
    Orioles -- 10/1

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Executives rank Sox 2nd-most improved team
    December, 20, 2012
    Dec 20
    12:53
    PM ET
    By ESPNBoston.com

    In sizing up the major league landscape at the offseason’s midway point, ESPN.com senior baseball writer Jayson Stark polled executives around the league, asking them to identify the five teams that improved themselves most and the five that have done the least to help their chances in 2013.

    Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays topped the first list after trading for three starting pitchers who averaged 209 innings apiece last season (R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson), a dynamic leadoff man (Jose Reyes), a guy who hit .346/.390/.516 (Melky Cabrera) before testing positive for a banned substance and two players (Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis) who give them the depth and versatility they lacked in 2012.

    "I give them a lot of credit," one NL executive told Stark. "They recognized that right now, the Red Sox and Yankees aren't the Red Sox and Yankees. The AL East isn't the AL East like it used to be. They saw a window of opportunity, and they're going for it. A lot of teams never take that swing. At least they took it."

    Perhaps more surprising was the team that executives think improved itself the second-most in baseball: The Boston Red Sox.

    The Sox have added eight free agents (assuming they come to terms with Mike Napoli), for the most part because they had more holes to fill than almost any other team in baseball after their worst season in more than four decades.

    Nevertheless, executives on the whole were bullish on Boston’s acquisitions, though there were divided opinions as to how much better the Red Sox would be in 2013. This from Stark:

        They're deeper. Our panel agreed on that. Their clubhouse should be much more harmonious. They've added more of Keith Law's top 50 free agents (six) than any other team in either league. And “they've brought in a bunch of guys who can play in Boston,” said one AL executive. But on the other hand ...

        "They've added a lot," said one AL exec. "But remember, they had to add a lot, because they had so many holes."

        And another AL exec gave this scathing review: "To me, they've spent a lot of money to be mediocre."

    There you go folks - something for both sides there. :-)

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Red Sox were fine offensively last year even without the benefit of Ells - an MVP-level player if he stays on the field

    A. The Red Sox were not fine, offensively, in 2012

    B. Ells was on the field for nearly half the season and he was not MVP level player. In the half a decade he's been given a starting position for the Red Sox, he's been a MPP player, most prima donna player.

    The great news is that Ellsbury will play his last game for the Red Sox in less than one year, and it could be as soon as days.

    [/QUOTE]


    Ha-ha!

    OK, the Red Sox were fine offensively before all of the injuries struck and they were playing a AAA team on the field. Up until the All-Star break, they were near the top of the AL in runs scored.

    I know that you have "issues" with Ellsbury - - some of which I share. Even if he repeats 2011 in 2013, I still cannot see signing him to a long-term contract. There are too many health risks. You may argue that 2011 was one season of many, but the player has shown that HE CAN produce at that level. You have to give him that much.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    [/QUOTE]


    I still think that without a major addition to our rotation, we will need a miraculous confluence of chance to occur to help us win over 86-88 games

    [/QUOTE]

    On the other hand, many people fail to realize that it took a remarkable "confluence of chance" for the team to be as bad as it was last year.  I do think it will require upside variance for the current roster to win 90+ games next year, but I disagree that it would need to be of "miraculous" proportions.

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Here's a preliminary comparitive look at 2013 as compared to 2012 (offense only):

    2012 by position: (PAs)

    C   .215/.279/.429/.708  ( Salty 388, Shopp 155, Lava 99)

    1B .289/.337/.459/.795  (AGon 455, Loney 104, Gomez 58, Youk 44, Papi 30)

    2B .281/.337/.431/.768  (Pedey 615, Ciriaco 47, Punto 42)

    3B .257/.303/.400/.703  (Midd 279, Ciriaco 136, Youk 120, Punto 67, DV 28)

    SS .241/.278/.365/.642   (Aviles 517, Iggy 76, Ciriaco 40, Punto 20)

    LF .267/.332/.411/.744  (Nava 288, Pods 116, CC 124, Ross 73, DMac 65)

    CF .264/.299/.354/.654  (Ells 318, Byrd 101, Pods 74, Kalish 65, Sween 61)

    RF .261/.319/.431/.751  (Ross 374, Sween 152, AGon 65, Kalish 30)

    DH .278/.360/.473/.833  (Papi 351, Lava 65, Ross 53, Salty 47, Ciriaco 37)

     

    A quick look at 2013 (I will do a complete analysis this spring):

    Stats are OPS from 2011-2012 combined, unless otherwise noted.

     

    Catcher (.708 in 2012):

    Salty vs RHPs .782

    Ross vs LHPs .674   (vs RHPs .826) - could see Salty traded and Lava vs LHPs.

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but Ross will not likely macth Shopp's O.

     

    1B (.795 in 2012):

    Napoli vs RHPs .955/vs LHPs .879

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but can he get 650 PAs?

     

    2B (.768 in '12):

    Pedey vs RHPs .789/vs LHPs .934

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    3B (.703 in '12):

    Middlebrooks vs RHPs .798/vs LHPs .906

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but much is unknown.

     

    SS (.642 in '12)

    S Drew .714 /vs LHPs.617

    * Much potenetial for gains here, but...

     

    LF (.744 in '12):

    Nava vs RHPs  .797

    Gomes vs LHPs .935

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    CF (.654 in '12):

    Ells vs RHPs .886 / vs LHPs .774

    * Much potenetial for gains here.

     

    RF (.751 in '12):

    Victorino vs RHPs .705 /vs LHPs .960

    * Some potenetial for gains here.

     

    DH (.833 in '12):

    Papi vs RHPs .977 /vs LHPs .988

    * Much potenetial for gains here if Papi can stay healthy.

     

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

    [/QUOTE]

    Every position has the potential for downsides also. Not sure how you include Nava. He's a AAAA player and won't even be on the opening day roster. You are assuming Napoli is healthy, etc. He's obviously not or else they would have introduced him already. And Drew? Don't start. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Unless we sign someone of make a trade Nava beats out Kalish for the LF platoon vs RHPs. Even if Kalish wins the job, there is potential upside gain in LF in 2013.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Moon and others, this may have already been stated, but here is my two cents. The core of our lineup, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz and Middlebrooks combined and healthy are well capable of 100-120 HR's, 400-500 RBI's, and 400-500 runs scored. The rest of the lineup as is now constituted will consist of veteran guys who can all deliver quality at bats and will grind up pitchers. We will score runs. It all comes down to starting pitching. If John Farrell and Juan Nieves can coax even career average years from the starting five, then we will contend. Overly optimistic you may say, but the last year's world champs could not field a batting order close to this one, they won with pitching and timely offense. I'm not comparing our starting five to San Fran's, but Lester and Lackey's average years do compare favorably. And if Buch and Doubie continue to develop and Dempster pitches to his career averages, then this offense will win lots of games. It may indeed be a bridge, and my glasses may be too rose-colored, but this team looks at least twenty games better than last year's team. And that's enough to contend.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves

    Why spend an entire thread with aggregate rainman position player stats, when you state that it all comes down to "how our rotation improves". This exposes your delusion.

    And, your "improvement" for the 2013 rotation is to pay about 11 million for McCarthy and Colon.

    Wha wha wha <buzzer>

    [/QUOTE]

    I never said it was 100% pitching, but knowing you, you probably misread that somewhere.

    Yes, McCarthy and Colon at $11M is better than Dempster at $13M x 2, or better than pipedream lowball offers to 4th rate pitchers like Guthrie.

    You bashed me for wanting Gio Gonzalez last year, then you failed to give Gio the credit he deserved after a fine season, just so you can retain your smug air of superiority.

    When you get one position right, then let us talk.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Agreed, looks like the joy of baseball could be back  

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to proftom2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The biggest number for me is if I care or not. I spent most of my life from early childhood to senior citizen deeply caring for the Boston Red Sox, they were my number one.  Last year drove me away. I quit caring.  This years team got me caring again. 

    I am not much of a numbers guy. I just really like to see good baseball. My sense is this years teams will play good baseball.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Well stated.

    A lot of people think that because I enjoy stats so much, I may not appreciate just watching "good baseball". I love baseball and played for many many years before switching to softball when my knee gave out.

    I will enjoy watching this year's team. It should be fun. I will also try to catch some Sea Dog games when in Maine this summer.

    I can pretty easily seperate my frustration for what "might have been " or "should have been" from just sitting down and watching a game.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Technically therte is always a chance.

    However - the chance of Gomes having a "great" year is statistically close to zero. 

    The chance of a young OF shocking the league is still very low but higher than zero.

    I put Napoli, Dempster, and Victorino much closer to zero than a rookie.  Drew?  Closer to zero than one of the rooks.

    Don't get me wrong - the rookies are long shots too.  But the rookies have a much better chance to improve and outperform expectations than older, mediocre players.

    I have no problem with saying "we are rebuilding and saving money."   But the sox aren't doing either of those things.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You are completely right.  Rookies, who you do not even name, have a much better shot of emerging as all-stars than guys who were all-stars in their last healthy seasons.  Spot on.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I never said it was 100% pitching, but knowing you, you probably misread that somewhere.

    Yes, McCarthy and Colon at $11M is better than Dempster at $13M x 2, or better than pipedream lowball offers to 4th rate pitchers like Guthrie.

    You bashed me for wanting Gio Gonzalez last year, then you failed to give Gio the credit he deserved after a fine season, just so you can retain your smug air of superiority.

    When you get one position right, then let us talk.

    [/QUOTE]

    Softlaw is trying to create a new course to be added to English programs everywhere. Creative Reading.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Looking at it like a stock, no one would want to own it, unless you are Ben Cherington.

    [/QUOTE]

    That kind of depends on whether you're the type to buy or sell when the market goes down.  I don't think you'd be on the right side of history if you're the type to sell on two year's of market decline.

     

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