A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Perhaps "pessimist" was the wrong word.  "Complainer" is more accurate.  If a Sox rookie has a season in 2013 like Trout's last year you will bitterly complain for years that they should have brought him up sooner.

    [/QUOTE]


    It would be impossible for Trout to play lik ethat in Boston.  He would be in Pawtucket waiting for contracts to expire on guys like Gomes and Victorino.

    You asked "how can you like Kalish who had 57 hits?"

    Get this straight PLEASE.  Kalish was not outstanding last year - but like most young players, he is going to improve.  Maybe he'll end up being an average or below average ball player.  Or maybe he'll hit 35 HRs and play oustanding defense (Reddick).

    Even if Kalish ends up as a below average OF - that puts him on par with the below average Gomes - and kalish costs much less.

    When you bring in older mediocre players - rehabbers and decliners - You have NO CHANCE of seeing them become anything more than mediocre.

    And yes, I think Boagerts has an excellent chance to play just as well as Drew.  But we will never find out because Boagerts is going to be stuck at Potland and Pawtucket. 

    Then we can package him for a 32 year old OF to replace Ellsbury who left when he didn't get paid because we squandered cash on mediocre veterans every year Ellsbury was in Boston.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew's OPS for 2012 was clearly impacted by coming back from injury in mid-season.  His monthly OPS for 2012 shows a steady improvement.

    July .537

    Aug .670

    Sept-Oct .752

    His home run power also improved each month.  In Sept-Oct he had 5 HR in 29 games.

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

    Can someone publish the "rules for optimists", so I can get on board with the logic?

     

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You are completely right.  Rookies, who you do not even name, have a much better shot of emerging as all-stars than guys who were all-stars in their last healthy seasons.  Spot on.

    [/QUOTE]

    Here's a tip for you - if you have to start with a lie - your argument is weak.  Did I say emerging as all-stars?  Nope.
     

    But I do think its interesting that Reddick was an All Star last year. 

    There are lots of reasons younger players should get the nod over MEDIOCRE aging rehabbers.  One of them is potential - younger players still have that.  Mediocre rehabbers do not.  Another benefit is the younger players cost little - while the mediocrities are costing a fortune.  This limits the team's abiliity to add REAL help.

    I prefer Kalish over Gomes.

    I'd rather teach Lavarnaway to play 1B than bring in Napoli.

    I prefer Iggy or perhaps Boagerts (depending on how he plays in ST - but let's find out!) can play well enough that you don't go out and sign Drew who is declining and now blocks Iggy at Pawtucket which means Boagerts is stuck in Portland.  We are going to stifle these two guys for Drew??  It's not like we signed an all star.  We are going to slow down young players for Drew????? 

    Victorino is a waste of $$ - we already have a great CF who is younger than he is - so signing victorino is a signal to our best player:  " we don't want you"  - it is also lost resources to sign pitching help.

    Lastly - I prefer an open spring training competition for the rotation rather than signing Dempster.  If he is the best FA available - let the AAA and AA guys fight for roster spots.

     

     

     

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

     

    I did the same thing, but used Bill James' projections.  We should finisih in the top-3 in OPS.

     On the rotation side, Lackey, Dempster should finish at league average ERA, maybe slightly better.  Lester and Buchholz should be well above average.  There was  a good article on this that I'll dig up.

    [/QUOTE]

    And Bill James projections worked well for Crawford and all. Projections mean nothing.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I still think that without a major addition to our rotation, we will need a miraculous confluence of chance to occur to help us win over 86-88 games (the minimum expected to have a chance at a wildcard playoff slot).

    This is about our offense.

    The 2012 numbers were also greatly effected by the big trade and injuries to Ellsbury, CC, Middlebrooks, and AGon playing in RF. On paper, I think our offense looked better last winter than this one, so you are right: statistical analysis is not "required" to know we should get better than a team that had Loney, Lava and others dragging down the 2012 numbers. 

    A lot of people don't realize that, even with the worst manager in BB, maybe in a long, long time, no #4 or #5, the slow start by Buch, the lost season by Lester, CC down for a long time, and everything else, we were still 55-55 after 110.

    [/QUOTE]

    What was the final record? If I'm not mistaken, the baseball season is judged on 162 games.

    The Chicago Bears were 7-1 at one point this year. They are now 8-6.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

     

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No, the trend is 2 years. He went up 3 years ago. He has gone up from the previous year 2 times, and down 3 times...not four out of 5.

    His over all trend is actually up and down, so if you play the odds, it is "up time" this year.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Lav has never played 1B before

    and the rest of your drivel is whine

    [/QUOTE]


    How many seasons did Napoli catch exclusively before playing a game at 1B brainless?

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

     

     

     

     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

    [/QUOTE]


    You're really burying yourself on this one.  You're the same guy who's been complaining bitterly about them not extending Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury's OPS dropped from 928 in 2011 to 682 in 2012.  What a tumble!  You must be out of your mind to want to sign a big extension with a player who is obviously going downhill rapidly.

     
  13. This post has been removed.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No, the trend is 2 years. He went up 3 years ago. He has gone up from the previous year 2 times, and down 3 times...not four out of 5.

    His over all trend is actually up and down, so if you play the odds, it is "up time" this year.

    [/QUOTE]


    His 2nd "Up year" is less than two years before that! 

    He never played as well as 2008 again. 

     

     

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Lav has never played 1B before

    and the rest of your drivel is whine

    [/QUOTE]


    How many seasons did Napoli catch exclusively before playing a game at 1B brainless?

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I am wide awake

    you as always are into the stupid pills again.

    [/QUOTE]


    Okay - rise and shine.  Tell me - why is it okay for Napoli to learn 1B but not Lavarnaway?  Explain that.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    His 2nd "Up year" is less than two years before that! 

    He never played as well as 2008 again.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Completely wrong again.  Drew's 2010 season was his best statistically.  And that was his last full season.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hingham Hammer. Show Hingham Hammer's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

    [/QUOTE]


    You're really burying yourself on this one.  You're the same guy who's been complaining bitterly about them not extending Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury's OPS dropped from 928 in 2011 to 682 in 2012.  What a tumble!  You must be out of your mind to want to sign a big extension with a player who is obviously going downhill rapidly.

    [/QUOTE]

             LOL.

             Facts never get in his way.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hingham Hammer. Show Hingham Hammer's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    His 2nd "Up year" is less than two years before that! 

    He never played as well as 2008 again.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Completely wrong again.  Drew's 2010 season was his best statistically.  And that was his last full season.

    [/QUOTE]

      Remember when Sox fans asked "why could'nt we have the other Drew?"

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

    [/QUOTE]


    You're really burying yourself on this one.  You're the same guy who's been complaining bitterly about them not extending Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury's OPS dropped from 928 in 2011 to 682 in 2012.  What a tumble!  You must be out of your mind to want to sign a big extension with a player who is obviously going downhill rapidly.

    [/QUOTE]


    Nice to get you on record - you think Drew is as good as Ellsbury? 

    I'll hold you to that this season.

     

     

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

    [/QUOTE]


    I love how the optimists think it is impossible for Lavarnaway to learn to play some 1B. 

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    His 2nd "Up year" is less than two years before that! 

    He never played as well as 2008 again.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Completely wrong again.  Drew's 2010 season was his best statistically.  And that was his last full season.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew had less hits, less doubles, less HRs, less RBI, a lower BA, lower slugging, and lower OPS in 2010 than he had in 2008.

    WHat statistics are you using to say that Drew was better in 2010?  Walks??  This is what you are using to tell me I am "completely wrong"

    I am laughing at you right now.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You're really burying yourself on this one.  You're the same guy who's been complaining bitterly about them not extending Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury's OPS dropped from 928 in 2011 to 682 in 2012.  What a tumble!  You must be out of your mind to want to sign a big extension with a player who is obviously going downhill rapidly.

    [/QUOTE]


    Nice to get you on record - you think Drew is as good as Ellsbury? 

    I'll hold you to that this season. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Nice job avoiding the question.  As expected.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Drew had less hits, less doubles, less HRs, less RBI, a lower BA, lower slugging, and lower OPS in 2010 than he had in 2008.

    WHat statistics are you using to say that Drew was better in 2010?  Walks??  This is what you are using to tell me I am "completely wrong"

    I am laughing at you right now.

    [/QUOTE]

    Higher OPS+.  Much better fielding rating.  Higher WAR according to Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

    Let me guess - you don't accept any of those ratings.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    His 2nd "Up year" is less than two years before that! 

    He never played as well as 2008 again.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Completely wrong again.  Drew's 2010 season was his best statistically.  And that was his last full season.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew had less hits, less doubles, less HRs, less RBI, a lower BA, lower slugging, and lower OPS in 2010 than he had in 2008.

    WHat statistics are you using to say that Drew was better in 2010?  Walks??  This is what you are using to tell me I am "completely wrong"

    I am laughing at you right now.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm still laughing at you as you avoid this question. 

     

    This isn;t 60 minutes.  I don't sit here an answer questions from all the cheerleaders all day.  At somepoint you need to answer too.

    Take a look at those stats and explain how I am COMPLETELY wrong.  That's what you said. 

     

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