A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Drew had less hits, less doubles, less HRs, less RBI, a lower BA, lower slugging, and lower OPS in 2010 than he had in 2008.

    WHat statistics are you using to say that Drew was better in 2010?  Walks??  This is what you are using to tell me I am "completely wrong"

    I am laughing at you right now.

    [/QUOTE]

    Higher OPS+.  Much better fielding rating.  Higher WAR according to Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

    Let me guess - you don't accept any of those ratings.

    [/QUOTE]

    this is the funniest post ever.  I am going to print and frame this one. 

    hits, doubles, runs, rbi, Hrs, avgh, slugging, ops - all out the window because he fielded better.

     

    Now I am really laughing. 

    Don't pull a hamstring doing your statistical gymnastics.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

     

    I did the same thing, but used Bill James' projections.  We should finisih in the top-3 in OPS.

     On the rotation side, Lackey, Dempster should finish at league average ERA, maybe slightly better.  Lester and Buchholz should be well above average.  There was  a good article on this that I'll dig up.

    [/QUOTE]

    And Bill James projections worked well for Crawford and all. Projections mean nothing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Exactly which is why your theories are no better than anyone's except you think if we don't agree with you we are all idiots.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Lavarnway played RF at Yale for an entire season - then he switched to catcher. 

     

    Is it your position he cannot learn 1B? 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

    [/QUOTE]


    I love how the optimists think it is impossible for Lavarnaway to learn to play some 1B. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    He is still learning to catch at the MLB level and you wish to throw first base at him....seriously not a smart move

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Last year's team lost 93 games.  Of course there is potential for improvement - I'm not sure it requires a ton of statistical analysis.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I still think that without a major addition to our rotation, we will need a miraculous confluence of chance to occur to help us win over 86-88 games (the minimum expected to have a chance at a wildcard playoff slot).

    This is about our offense.

    The 2012 numbers were also greatly effected by the big trade and injuries to Ellsbury, CC, Middlebrooks, and AGon playing in RF. On paper, I think our offense looked better last winter than this one, so you are right: statistical analysis is not "required" to know we should get better than a team that had Loney, Lava and others dragging down the 2012 numbers. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Its what we have been saying for quite some time moon.  Next years team should have a much more positive clubhouse atmosphere along with depth at certain offensive positions. 

    My posts generally use the term "team OBP" for reason and with the added depth and better health we have a chance to maintain a higher percentage as a team which could be huge.  What we still lack in my opinion is that go to guy every five days on the mound before things inprove enough to make the PS. 

    I would be shocked but happy for our club and fans if Lackey or Dempster can make a difference.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think we will be lucky if just one of Lester or Buch stay healthy all year and pitch great.

    I think we will be lucky if one of Dempster or Doubront do well in 2013.

    Lackey is a wildcard.

    Overall, if 3 do well I'd think that was on the good side of the odds, and I suppose that might be enough if we have very few injuries or declines on offense, but it's just too much for me to consider serious.

    Alas, this is supposed to be a positive thread, so I'll end with this: "Hope springs eternal".

    [/QUOTE]

    I would say that it's optimistic to say that both Lester and Buchh will rebound and stay healthy

    Realistic to say that one will

    Pessimistic to say that neither will.

    My two cents.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Lavarnway played RF at Yale for an entire season - then he switched to catcher. 

     

    Is it your position he cannot learn 1B? 

    [/QUOTE]


    Actually, I do not think he'd be a good 1Bman, but he could probably learn over 2-3 years to be acceptable.

    I was just responding to your position and pointing out some inaccuracies with your statements. I wasn't trying to take sides, because I just don't think lava at 1B is an option now (since Salty can already play 1B) or in the near future (I think Bogaerts or Cecchini have a better chance at being good 1Bmen than Lava.)

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    I would say that it's optimistic to say that both Lester and Buchh will rebound and stay healthy

    Realistic to say that one will

    Pessimistic to say that neither will.

     

    I agree.

    Last year, I said it was too optimistic to expect Beckett, Lester, and Buch to all stay healthy and productive at the same time (it had never been done before). I said that realistically maybe 2 would do well, and that just one doing well all year was probably more likely than all 3. I caught some grief for saying that last winter/spring, and basically that position was the foundation for my belief that without a major addition to our rotation last winter, we had little chance of winning a ring.

    Now that Beckett is gone and replaced by Dempster. Cook, Bard and others are replaced by Lackey. I still see the same dynamic at play. Wishing and hoping on 4 or 5 pitchers do all do well in the same year is not realistic. If we trade Morales for Hanrahan, we lose an outside chance at someone else filling the role of a struggling starter. I was hoping Taz would get a chance as a starter, but it doesn't look like that will happen.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ben Cheringtom's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Lav has never played 1B before

    and the rest of your drivel is whine

    [/QUOTE]


    How many seasons did Napoli catch exclusively before playing a game at 1B brainless?

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I am wide awake

    you as always are into the stupid pills again.

    [/QUOTE]


    Okay - rise and shine.  Tell me - why is it okay for Napoli to learn 1B but not Lavarnaway?  Explain that.

    [/QUOTE]

    Because Napoli's career OPS is .863.  That is a bat that you try to fit into your lineup even if you have to get creative and move some pieces around.

    For comparison: AGON's is .877

    Torii Hunter's is .800

    Pedroia's : .830

    Lavarnaway's : .516

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    i think we could win 81 games...i guess that makes me an optimist

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Lavarnway played RF at Yale for an entire season - then he switched to catcher. 

     

    Is it your position he cannot learn 1B? 

    [/QUOTE]

    No, its that he was given a chance to earn a spot on the MLB roster last year and didnt.

    .157 BA, .211 OBP, 2 HR.  Thats over 150 AB.

    I'm not saying to give up on him, but his production did not warrant us handing him a starting job.  He goes back to teh minors.  If he hits in AAA, there will be future opportunities for him.  There will always be injuries, and we can always work out a trade.

    He was given a chance to earn a spot on this team and he didnt.  Simple as that.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    4 full seasons.  He didn't play 1B until he was 28.  Wake up.

    Since when is 75-96 games a full season?

    BTW, he played almost 20% of his minor league games at 1B.

    How many has Lava played in his life?

    (Hint: it's between -1 and 1.)

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Lavarnway played RF at Yale for an entire season - then he switched to catcher. 

     

    Is it your position he cannot learn 1B? 

    [/QUOTE]

    No, its that he was given a chance to earn a spot on the MLB roster last year and didnt.

    .157 BA, .211 OBP, 2 HR.  Thats over 150 AB.

    I'm not saying to give up on him, but his production did not warrant us handing him a starting job.  He goes back to teh minors.  If he hits in AAA, there will be future opportunities for him.  There will always be injuries, and we can always work out a trade.

    He was given a chance to earn a spot on this team and he didnt.  Simple as that.

    [/QUOTE]

    He may be given a chance to earn a spot in this spring training as well. They can always trade Salty during ST, if Lava looks great (or even if he doesbn't).

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Higher OPS+.  Much better fielding rating.  Higher WAR according to Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

    Let me guess - you don't accept any of those ratings.

    [/QUOTE]

    this is the funniest post ever.  I am going to print and frame this one. 

    hits, doubles, runs, rbi, Hrs, avgh, slugging, ops - all out the window because he fielded better.

     

    Now I am really laughing. 

    Don't pull a hamstring doing your statistical gymnastics.

    [/QUOTE]

    They're not my statistics.

    Even if, as expected, you don't accept that he had a better season statistically in 2010, even a muddled thinker like you has to concede that 2010 was a very solid season for Drew.  And it's just plain fact that 2010 was his last full season, because of injury...you know, like Ellsbury's injuries.

    You can't stickhandle your way out of your foolish remarks about him being in decline.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No, the trend is 2 years. He went up 3 years ago. He has gone up from the previous year 2 times, and down 3 times...not four out of 5.

    His over all trend is actually up and down, so if you play the odds, it is "up time" this year.

    [/QUOTE]
    Moon - But look at the decline. If he goes "up" from the .657, he can still be at an OPS of less than .700. Look at the comparative numbers.

    moon - Redo your analysis but on a chart that actually compares the numbers. The .713 number he had in 2011 was closer to the .683 in 2007 than it was to the .748 in 2009.

    So for example, if someone went from 35 HR's, to 25 HR's to 15 HR's, and then back 20 HR's, you would say that is a rising trend?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Higher OPS+.  Much better fielding rating.  Higher WAR according to Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

    Let me guess - you don't accept any of those ratings.

    [/QUOTE]

    this is the funniest post ever.  I am going to print and frame this one. 

    hits, doubles, runs, rbi, Hrs, avgh, slugging, ops - all out the window because he fielded better.

     

    Now I am really laughing. 

    Don't pull a hamstring doing your statistical gymnastics.

    [/QUOTE]

    They're not my statistics.

    Even if, as expected, you don't accept that he had a better season statistically in 2010, even a muddled thinker like you has to concede that 2010 was a very solid season for Drew.  And it's just plain fact that 2010 was his last full season, because of injury...you know, like Ellsbury's injuries.

    You can't stickhandle your way out of your foolish remarks about him being in decline.

    [/QUOTE]


    you guys are laying THE WOOD on SG. the entire 4th page was you guys just railing on him LOL! and rightfully so, he is being quite ignorant in his views.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    His 2nd "Up year" is less than two years before that! 

    He never played as well as 2008 again.   

    [/QUOTE]

    Completely wrong again.  Drew's 2010 season was his best statistically.  And that was his last full season.

    [/QUOTE]

    And you are extremely wrong. 2008 was his best statistically. Please recheck your math.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Moon - But look at the decline. If he goes "up" from the .657, he can still be at an OPS of less than .700. Look at the comparative numbers.

    The guy said he declined "every year".

    He has decline only 3 of 5 years (compared to his previous season).

    He said he has declined 3 straight years. Not true. It is 2 straight years. He went up from 2009 to 2010.

    He has been up and down, and I see no steady downward trend over his 6 year career.

     

    Let's look a little closer:

     

    Drew's 1st 3 years:  .759

    Drew's last 3 years: .746

    I wouldn't call this a major decline at all.

     

    Drews first 2 years: .764

    Drew's mid 2 years: .780

    Drew's last 2 years: .687

    Again, no steady decline here: more like a normal bell curve.

     

    One more angle:

         Drew   vs MLB SSs

    '12   .657     .685

    '11  .713      .684

    '10   .810     .679

    '09   .748    .711

    '08   .836    .713

    '07   .683    .731

    Differential from norm:

    -48

    +123

    +37

    +31

    +29

    -28

    He's been above the norm of SSs in 5 of the last 6 years.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    And you are extremely wrong. 2008 was his best statistically. Please recheck your math.

    [/QUOTE]

    I already tried to explain this to SG.  My numbers come from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, they're not mine.  You can take up the math with them.

    Do you want to dispute that Drew had an excellent season in 2010, or that it was his last full season?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    And you are extremely wrong. 2008 was his best statistically. Please recheck your math.

    [/QUOTE]

    I already tried to explain this to SG.  My numbers come from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, they're not mine.  You can take up the math with them.

    Do you want to dispute that Drew had an excellent season in 2010, or that it was his last full season?

    [/QUOTE]

    While Drew's OPS was .026 better in 2008 over 2010, his OBP was .029 better in 2010. Most feel that OBP is much more important than SLG, so if you wieght OBP 2:1 over SLG, then both seasons are essentially even.

    OBP+ OBP+SLG x 2/3

    2008: 1.168 x .667= .779

    2010: 1.162 x .667= .776

    Drew had 10SB and 3 CS in 2010 and 3/3 in 2088 if that means anything.

    His OPS+ was 113 in 2010 and only 110 in 2008.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    And you are extremely wrong. 2008 was his best statistically. Please recheck your math.

    [/QUOTE]

    I already tried to explain this to SG.  My numbers come from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, they're not mine.  You can take up the math with them.

    Do you want to dispute that Drew had an excellent season in 2010, or that it was his last full season?

    [/QUOTE]

    While Drew's OPS was .026 better in 2008 over 2010, his OBP was .029 better in 2010. Most feel that OBP is much more important than SLG, so if you wieght OBP 2:1 over SLG, then both seasons are essentially even.

    OBP+ OBP+SLG x 2/3

    2008: 1.168 x .667= .779

    2010: 1.162 x .667= .776

    Drew had 10SB and 3 CS in 2010 and 3/3 in 2088 if that means anything.

    His OPS+ was 113 in 2010 and only 110 in 2008.

    [/QUOTE]


    both were good seasons. he is a good ballplayer. this was a good signing.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    While Drew's OPS was .026 better in 2008 over 2010, his OBP was .029 better in 2010. Most feel that OBP is much more important than SLG, so if you wieght OBP 2:1 over SLG, then both seasons are essentially even.

    OBP+ OBP+SLG x 2/3

    2008: 1.168 x .667= .779

    2010: 1.162 x .667= .776

    Drew had 10SB and 3 CS in 2010 and 3/3 in 2088 if that means anything.

    His OPS+ was 113 in 2010 and only 110 in 2008.

    [/QUOTE]


    both were good seasons. he is a good ballplayer. this was a good signing.

     

    One of the few things I really had my heart set on for 2012 was watching Iggy flash his defense and improve our staff's numbers along the way. I'm a bit dissapointed by that, but it would be nice if Drew repeats 2010 or 2008 to make up for some of the drop off on D.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    150 Million to Big Labor for 25 to 1 result isn't a good bet.

    [/QUOTE]

    How much will Henry make for such a poor entertainment product?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    150 Million to Big Labor for 25 to 1 result isn't a good bet.

    [/QUOTE]

    How much will Henry make for such a poor entertainment product?

    [/QUOTE]

    Softy's grasp of business realities is being exposed as painfully feeble.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    150 Million to Big Labor for 25 to 1 result isn't a good bet.

    [/QUOTE]

    How much will Henry make for such a poor entertainment product?

    [/QUOTE]

    Softy's grasp of business realities is being exposed as painfully feeble.

    [/QUOTE]

    Just look at how much money Oprah made as an entertainer. Did she make all that because of a union?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    While Drew's OPS was .026 better in 2008 over 2010, his OBP was .029 better in 2010. Most feel that OBP is much more important than SLG, so if you wieght OBP 2:1 over SLG, then both seasons are essentially even.

    OBP+ OBP+SLG x 2/3

    2008: 1.168 x .667= .779

    2010: 1.162 x .667= .776

    Drew had 10SB and 3 CS in 2010 and 3/3 in 2088 if that means anything.

    His OPS+ was 113 in 2010 and only 110 in 2008.

    [/QUOTE]


    both were good seasons. he is a good ballplayer. this was a good signing.

     

    One of the few things I really had my heart set on for 2012 was watching Iggy flash his defense and improve our staff's numbers along the way. I'm a bit dissapointed by that, but it would be nice if Drew repeats 2010 or 2008 to make up for some of the drop off on D.

    [/QUOTE]


    i know you did. so did i. but we are getting a clear upgrade at SS and even if he isn't what we expect we can always bring iggy back up. he definitely needs more time at AAA no matter how you slice it. its just that 2 weeks ago we didn't have a better option at SS so it made sense to just slot him in and go with it.

    this is a win-win

     
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