A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Why should an owner who hires "incompetent" management get rewarded with more and more money?

    Somehow this clown is OK with this, but low and behold if the actual entertainer holds out for the most money he can make.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, too bad that you can't edit out "pessimist" from the thread title since you admitted that it was a poor choice of words.

    [/QUOTE]

    Well, I still feel pessistic about 2013, so it's not a totally poor choice of words.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As you can see, every position has the potenetiasl for gains over 2012, some could be wide gains. I will hope for the best, and as always, it will come down to how our rotation improves. 

    (Sidenote: I'll do a study on that soon. I think we may not be done with "upgrading" our staff.)

     

    I did the same thing, but used Bill James' projections.  We should finisih in the top-3 in OPS.

     On the rotation side, Lackey, Dempster should finish at league average ERA, maybe slightly better.  Lester and Buchholz should be well above average.  There was  a good article on this that I'll dig up.

    [/QUOTE]

    And Bill James projections worked well for Crawford and all. Projections mean nothing.

    [/QUOTE]

    It is my mathematical understanding that taking one player, that James did not even like, to say there is no merit in trying to project anyone, is inane.

    Projections represent an average.  100% of all projections will fail, simply because half of all player out-perform, and half of all players underperform.

    And if projections mean nothing, why are you wasting your time projecting a bad season?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stephen Drew's OPS by year:

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 

               .836            .810

                         .748            .713

    .683                                          .657

     

     

     

     

    Got it.  His OPS has declined every year - but it isn't really a decline because there are excuses for it.

     

    Tell me how you see a "decline every year".

    I see a rise in 2 years and a decline in 3 years.

    Am I blind?

    [/QUOTE]


    The trend is decline.   three consecutive, and 4 of 5  years of absymal decline.

    Invest in that stock?  Go broke.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No, the trend is 2 years. He went up 3 years ago. He has gone up from the previous year 2 times, and down 3 times...not four out of 5.

    His over all trend is actually up and down, so if you play the odds, it is "up time" this year.

    [/QUOTE]

    That was kind of funny.  I know he doesn't like numbers, but I really expected he could differentiate between two years in decline and three years.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Actually you guys are struggling with comparing numbers.  I have no yrouble with them.

    ADG gave you the answer with his home run example - here is another hypothetical:

    2007 11 HRs

    2008  35 HRs

    2009  18 HRs

    2010  22 HRs

    2011 18 Hrs

    2012 11 HRs

     

    I would call that a record of decline in HRs  Drew supporters would say:  "Decline?  How can it be decline when he hit more HRs than the previous season twice?  in both 2008 and 2010"  They ignore that 2010 was a decline from 2008

    Here is the beautiful truth - Drew supporters will have to defend his mediocrity.  We already have one lost soul comparing Drew to Ellsbury.  I look forward to that comparison all season long.

    As for Lavarnway - he made the major leagues because he has been a great hitter at all levels.  Now people are ready to bury him because "he had his chance last year?" 

    Insane.

    Lavarnway is going to hit somewhere - so before we treat him like Reddick and dump another hitter - let's explore ways to GET  him in the lineup.  If it is DH/1B/C combo I am happy with that.  The guy is an athlete - he converted to catcher when he was 19 years old.  He is only 25.  Bringing in Napoli is STUPID.

    Napoli hit .227 last year.  he is an aging gimpy part time player.  he is not an offensive machine.  he is a mediocre ball player who gets hurt EVERY year.  he had one year where he hit a bunch of HRs - who knows why? 

    I can't wait for the season to start just so we get real data on the Napoli, Drew, Gomes acquisitions. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    folks getting excited by any of these signings are the definition of homers...there isnt one excellent player among them...and we won 69 games last year....why did we spent over 100 million to become .500 at best?

    also - there is a reason why that is...its called a short term contract - the real stars of the league dont want them and wont sign them...

    if youre lucky you might get a beltre playing for a contract - but then resigning them once they do well in boston has never been our M.O.

    it is kind of funny to see how the bootlickers are trying so hard to prop up ben's madness as sound Gming.....poor Moon basically had to pull a Galileo and recant his beliefs lest he be hung in effigy by the Cherryites...

    the team is lousy, their new players are for the most part over the hill...we are going to have a bad season....embrace the truth folks....

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Here is the beautiful truth - Drew supporters will have to defend his mediocrity.  We already have one lost soul comparing Drew to Ellsbury.  I look forward to that comparison all season long.

    [/QUOTE]

    Don't be so moronic.  I didn't compare Drew to Ellsbury.  The comparison that somehow escaped you was that they both 'declined' in 2012 and in both cases it obviously had a lot to do with their injuries.  But since you love Ellsbury you're willing to overlook it.

    Go back and read what I said and hopefully you'll understand it if you read it enough times. 

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

    [/QUOTE]

    What name did I call you?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/21/3792374/mike-napoli-adrian-gonzalez-boston-red-sox-hot-stove

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Now, if he can just give us 600+ PAs x 3 years.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

    [/QUOTE]

    What name did I call you?

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't like ot when you break out the "compare notres with softy" garbage.

     

    I don't get into the BDC soap operas - I actually have a life outside this board.  But I do know that you are intentionally trying to lump me in with someone I have never associated with.  I;m not even sure I've ever read a posyt by the guy - and half of the people on this board change names every 3 days.

    Try disagreeing with an agreeable nature - or do me a favor and don't post anything in response to me - because I can't stand all the socially-retarded  human relations on BDC

    Either way works.

     

     

     

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

    [/QUOTE]

    What name did I call you?

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't like ot when you break out the "compare notres with softy" garbage.

     

    I don't get into the BDC soap operas - I actually have a life outside this board.  But I do know that you are intentionally trying to lump me in with someone I have never associated with.  I;m not even sure I've ever read a posyt by the guy - and half of the people on this board change names every 3 days.

    Try disagreeing with an agreeable nature - or do me a favor and don't post anything in response to me - because I can't stand all the socially-retarded  human relations on BDC

    Either way works.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Works for me... bye bye.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    Napoli in PETCO? Easily a max of 15 homer, 60 ribbies, and 104 games played on average

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

    [/QUOTE]

    What name did I call you?

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't like ot when you break out the "compare notres with softy" garbage.

     

    I don't get into the BDC soap operas - I actually have a life outside this board.  But I do know that you are intentionally trying to lump me in with someone I have never associated with.  I;m not even sure I've ever read a posyt by the guy - and half of the people on this board change names every 3 days.

    Try disagreeing with an agreeable nature - or do me a favor and don't post anything in response to me - because I can't stand all the socially-retarded  human relations on BDC

    Either way works.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Works for me... bye bye.

    [/QUOTE]


    Perfect. 

     

    Somehow I knew you would choose that.  There is no way you are going to give up socially-retarded behavior in your virtual universe.

     

     

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

    [/QUOTE]

    What name did I call you?

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't like ot when you break out the "compare notres with softy" garbage.

     

    I don't get into the BDC soap operas - I actually have a life outside this board.  But I do know that you are intentionally trying to lump me in with someone I have never associated with.  I;m not even sure I've ever read a posyt by the guy - and half of the people on this board change names every 3 days.

    Try disagreeing with an agreeable nature - or do me a favor and don't post anything in response to me - because I can't stand all the socially-retarded  human relations on BDC

    Either way works.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Works for me... bye bye.

    [/QUOTE]


    Perfect. 

     

    Somehow I knew you would choose that.  There is no way you are going to give up socially-retarded behavior in your virtual universe.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Drews numbers took a dive after his ankle injury in 2011. At the end of 2012 (september to be specific) he was already starting to put up the numbers he was before the injury.

    I think the Sox saw that and thought the same thing I did. That he knocked the rust off and is ready to produce like he did. 200 points higher OPS over Iggy is huge. Although, like yourself, I still believe in Jose, but think another year in AAA will benefit him more.

    As far as the price goes, Ive given up getting mad because FA is just expensive. When guys like BJ Upton gets 15M for 5 years, you know its not getting better. Because of the restrictions put on comensation for players and the draft limitations, It was only obvious the prices for FA was going to go way up.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nice, now if Napoli only spent most of his career in Petco, and AGon spent most of his career in Anaheim and Arlington. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Don't let facts get in the way of your preconceiced notions.

    Park rankings: below 100 is a pitcher's park/above 100 is a hitter's park.

    With Naps:

    975 PAs Angel stadium is considered a pitcher's park. (park rank: 92/91)

    527 PAs Ranger's Ballpark (hitter's park). (112/111)

    Nap's 3rd and 4th most visited parks:

    170 PAs Oakland Col (97/97)

    147 PAs Safeco(90/91)

     

    With AGon:

    1664 PetCo (pitcher's park)

    636 Fenway (Hitter's heaven)

    273  Dodger Stad. (pitcher's park)

    228 Coors Field (Hitter's heaven)

    218  AT&T  (pitcher's park)

    201  Chase Field (AZ) 

    168  Rangers BPK

     

    They also have a stat that adjust a player's OPS for the parks they play in game by game. It is called OPS+.

    Career:

    Naps:  126  (Last 2 years: 110, 173)

    AGon:  136 (Last 2 years: 116, 155)

     

    I'd much rather have AGon than Naps for many many reasons, but as far as the OPS comparison goes, they are pretty close regardless of what parks they mostly played in.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Positive View from a Recently Turned Pessimist

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You said Stephen declined every year. I just pointed out that he hadn't.

    I pointed out that when you count years in decline, you don't count the obe where he had one of his best seasons. That is the season that he declined from afterwards: 2 years (2011 and 2012). Tell me how you see 2010 as a season in decline.

    You and softy should compare notes.

    [/QUOTE]

    Please - let's not go to the goofy name calling stage, okay?

    [/QUOTE]

    What name did I call you?

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't like ot when you break out the "compare notres with softy" garbage.

     

    I don't get into the BDC soap operas - I actually have a life outside this board.  But I do know that you are intentionally trying to lump me in with someone I have never associated with.  I;m not even sure I've ever read a posyt by the guy - and half of the people on this board change names every 3 days.

    Try disagreeing with an agreeable nature - or do me a favor and don't post anything in response to me - because I can't stand all the socially-retarded  human relations on BDC

    Either way works.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Works for me... bye bye.

    [/QUOTE]


    Perfect. 

     

    Somehow I knew you would choose that.  There is no way you are going to give up socially-retarded behavior in your virtual universe.

    OK, so in your universe, you can bash others, but you ask us to refrain from comparting you to others or even responding to you if we point out glaring mistakes in facts.

    Got it.

    Bye.

    (PS If you don't want me to respond to you, then stop respinding to me.)

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
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