Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II
posted at 5/6/2011 3:02 PM EDT
In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : Good analysis of the Scutaro situation. Angst for outs, ho hum for risks that result in runs. Fair or not, par for the course. But who's keeping score? It does seem that Bogar/runners have made more than a permissible number of bad judgments. Seems. You know how it is. Impressions linger. Let's see, the Sox have three plow horses in Ortiz, Gonzalez, and Varitek, though Tek is heady on the paths; one below average speed in Youkilis; three average in Pedroia, Lowrie, and Drew, though Drew is a smart baserunner; and two burners in Ellsbury and Crawford. IMO, this cast cannot afford to make mistakes. Four of the nine are close to lead-footed. Three of the nine should not overestimate what their wheels can do. The last two can at times outrun their bad judgments -- but not always,and they have to be careful not to be picked off or doubled off ( Ells ) because Boston needs their speed. If it comes to that, both of them should probably dare the opposition to make the perfect play to get them -- most of the time.
Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]Good take. I would add that while I haven't seen enough of A-Gon to comment when sending guys home it is important to keep in mind that both Ortiz and Tek have poor technique rounding third, their size finds them cutting the bag quite wide and taking the longer route from point A to point B. Youk is pretty heady much like Tek and he is able to cut third tighter than the other two. On balance wouldn't you agree that this team physically is better equipped to run the bases than the 2004 RS by example?
IMO the two speedsters will occasionally get picked off because it comes with the territory. So long as Ellsbury and CC are 80% plus base stealers even SABRmatricians concede 80% plus base stealing makes base stealing a favorable impact factor.
And while in an ideal world it should never happen, over 162 the guys may get double up a few times. I do think if it had been Bill Hall last season or Coco Crisp in 2008, the introduction of the Ellsbury play to this thread would have been very different (not to say your analysis is tainted by that, just saying why it came to be a topic of so many posts here). So while it was a mistake, all players make mistakes and the weight of that is balanced by what they do right IMO.
A far as the two base running "errors" in the Wednesday night game IMO Bogar should have held up Scutaro sooner but even though the play resulted in an out Cameron should have attempted to take 3rd. It was a freak play with a carom right to Aybar, he had to make a perfect throw even with the fortuitous bounce and Cameron was barely out. That type of aggression over 162 wins more games than it loses I think.
This stuff garners a lot more attention in Boston than it might elsewhere and I suppose that is a good thing.