A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Nice to see Ortiz hitting well against LHP. There was a goober who claimed he needed to sit v. LHP. In that case, please sit Bellsbury v. LHP, and please sit Lowrie v. RHP.  
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I'm glad to see Ortiz crushing LHP this year.  I hope this is the result of finally being fully recovered his wrist injury (if so, we should hope this applies to Lowrie going into the second half of the season).  Based on Ortiz' prior three years stats plus the options we had on the bench, at the start of the year the idea of sitting him against some LHP's had merit and was subscribed to by just about everyone.  Did you speak out against this idea in ST or is this newly developed insight now that results are already in?

    Re: Lowrie, his recent splits (2010-present) aren't as bad as Papi's were (2008-2010).  Ellsbury has been equally competent vs. LHP & RHP (I don't draw any conclusions from this season's 40 AB v. LHP sample ... yet).  Oh, and who exactly is going to play in place of Lowrie and Ells when they sit?  Have there really been better options on the bench?  

    Don't get me wrong, whenever Lowrie needs a "tired day off" it should definitely be v. RHP, but I fail to see why he should sit against all RHP's.  And re: Ellsbury, I think you are just off your rocker entirely.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I spoke out against this "idea" since the creator starting droning it.

    Lowrie has stamina issues and it's immaterial what his splits are compared to what Ortiz's were. Since when has he hit about 30 homers a year and been one of the true legends in Red Sox baseball?

    Sitting Lowrie v. most RHP starters puts him in the very role that has allowed him to do well on offense. His SS defense is horrible and it makes perfect sense to continue him in the role he was put in during spring training. He's a better pinch option than Scutaro, and is the type of profile that benefits from a lot of rest. Scutaro, also a 2nd basemen, is still a better defensive SS and hits RHP well enough to put his 6M to use in a platoon.

    They you need to draw conclusions from Bellsbury's career leadoff in inning and leadoff OBP. I believe I'll take Cameron v. LHP, given what this team has in place. That's much better CF defense and a better fit for most ballparks, most importantly, Fenway. Cameron has 2 homers in a game, despite being buried in Theo's doghouse. When Bellsbury sits v LHP, Drew has an adequate lifetime .357 OBP v. LHP, and would fit nicely in a platoon leadoff spot until Scutaro returns to the active roster and Crawford returns to career averages form. 

    Bellsbury's career leadoff OBP is .335. In 2011, his OBP v. LHP is .310

    The defensive issues should be the tiebreaker on cutting Bellsbury's time against LHP. Having the flexibility to insert Bellsbury as a pinch runner for any slow runner, late in a close game, is also a good reason to platoon him.

    To borrow your line, I don't read much into Cameron's BA and OBP in such a tiny 2011 sample size.

    And re: Bellsbury, I think he is off his rocker by whining about not having enough MRI angles taken, only to return after months of sojourn with his Doctor's blessing and roll and get a boo boo and went right back on the DL
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Nice to see Ortiz hitting well against LHP. There was a goober who claimed he needed to sit v. LHP. In that case, please sit Bellsbury v. LHP, and please sit Lowrie v. RHP.  
    Posted by majorleague[/QUOTE]


    Ya know, I don't necessarily buy into alternating hitters based on LHP or RHP.  I know all the numbers indicate that this is the way to go, but what happens is that the guy coming off the bench is accustomed to playing full time.

    Cameron, who supposedly crushes LHP, is having a tough time.  He's not used to sitting and waiting for the right pitcher to come along so he can play.

    I guess, in essence, not every ball player will be effective as, essentially, a DH...or part-time batter.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Cameron's OBP v. LHP has been very good in his last two full seasons and he has undoubtedly been a better fielder ... but keep in mind we are talking about 2008 and 2009 and the guy is getting up there in age.   Also, Ells has no particular weakness v. LHP, his career line is quite nice and he has been evolving into more of a prototypical leadoff hitter.  That and he can run like the wind.  You are better off sitting Drew v. LHP IMO (and keep in mind that I really like Drew)

    I honestly don't know that Scutaro is better fielding SS than Lowrie ... they are both pretty meh.  Not to mention Scutaro isn't much (if any) better than Lowrie v. RHP.  Ortiz is a RS legend, but his v.LHP was abominable for 3 straight years.  I'm very happy to see him back to something like old form but I can't criticize the idea of sitting him against some LHP when evaluated by what we knew during ST.

    Re: Lowrie and his "stamina issues" or Ellsbury and his "boo boo" you will only ever see what you want to see.  You might as well complain about Cameron whining about his tummy ache throughout last season.

    I don't think Lowrie is the second coming but I do like what I have seen so far and hope to see more.  Let me ask you this: what would it take for him to earn your approval?  If he posts a season line of .300 with 40 doubles and 15 HRs and plays 130-140 games would that do it?   How about if his v L/RHP is something like .265/.365?  What would it take on defense with that batting line?  Let's set a benchmark okay?  Tell us all what will qualify as success using objective criteria.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from czap. Show czap's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Who cares what the bums criteria is? He is a moron. Tito and Theo are not dumb. Ells is quickly becoming the best leadoff hitter in baseball.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Let's see him handle this benchmark first:

    Complete a full season of MLB and start and or appear in at least 140 MLB games in a single season. Okay?

    Ortiz was no more "abominable" v. LHP than Bellsbury, this year. With the exception that he could still crank one and really change the game. "Game changer" should not be used with scatbacks. That's what AGon and Ortiz do. 

    As for Bellsbury running like the wind, he'll never do that nor is he has smart as the wind. I think it's important to note that "protatypical leadoff hitter" does not have career leadoff spot and leadoff an inning OBP that Bellsbury has.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    majorleek,

    Ellsbury is demonstrably the best hitter of the five Sox outfielders right now--best OPS by almost 100 points, 2d on the team in runs scored, tied for third with Ortiz in rbi's.  He has twice as many SBs as Crawford.  McDonald, Cameron, and Drew can't hit much, won't steal bases, and seldom score runs or bat them in. And Crawford can't get on base.   As for his outfield skills, Ellsbury has very good range thanks to great speed, a so-so arm, and great hands--he has committed 2 errors in 382 games.  He's one of two Sox who have played in every game this season--for good reason. 

    Lowrie started ahead of Scutaro because he was blasting the ball and Scutaro couldn't hit spit.  Now that he has cooled down, Scutaro might get to play again if he can just get off the DL.  Funny you should accuse Lowrie of frailty when Scutaro's on the DL.  Lowrie's lifetime (203 games) OPS is 60 points higher than Scutaro's and his OPS for 2010 and 2011 is 150 points higher.  Scutaro has more range, but not a lot more.  Navarro is on the DL, and Iglesias, who is probably a great fielder, can't hit (yet--I hope).  You should be delighted that Lowrie is playing this year. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Ortiz was no more "abominable" v. LHP than Bellsbury, this year. With the exception that he could still crank one and really change the game. 

    2008-2010 Ortiz had 13 HR in 454 ABs v. LHP.  That's one per 35 ABs.  His OBP was just under .300.  In comparison, in 2010 Jed "No Pop" Lowrie had 4 HR in 100 ABs v. RHP (against whom you think he should be benched) ... that's one per 25 ABs.  If you were wondering, Jed's OBP was .353 v. RHP.

    I'd still like a full answer from you on the benchmark question ... please provide offensive and defensive benchmarks at your earliest convenience.  I understand your games played criteria, but I think 130 games is a better threshold for 2011 since he has already "missed" 7 games since he wasn't the starter.  Further, it is a good bet that Scutaro will get some games at SS and Lowrie will sit v some RHP ... this will happen whether or not he is "fragile" or "tired."  I have confidence in this since Tito is a good manager.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    MajorSoft - Since you seem to be focused on Ellsbury's 2011 stats, what is his leadoff OBP this year?  Just wondering.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I honestly don't know that Scutaro is better fielding SS than Lowrie ... they are both pretty meh.  Not to mention Scutaro isn't much (if any) better than Lowrie v. RHP. 

    I think Scutaro, when healthy, is a better fielder than Jed, but not by a large margin.

    Scutaro is pretty close to even vs RHPs (.711) and LHPs (.742)
    (2010: .711/.743 and 2009: .782/.809)

    but he has been better vs RHPs.

    Jed Lowrie vs RHPs: .667 career (.669 in 2011 and .823 in 2010)

    A .044 differential in career OPS is pretty significant.


     Ortiz is a RS legend, but his v.LHP was abominable for 3 straight years.  I'm very happy to see him back to something like old form but I can't criticize the idea of sitting him against some LHP when evaluated by what we knew during ST.

    3 years is a large enough sample size to project trends, but nothing is certain. Normally, the larger the sample size, the better chance of projecting correctly. It was a projection and nothing more.

    I guess I could have said there was a 50-50 chance he'd rebound for 40 games or more.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Here's a new Softy alliteration:

    Redundantly reincarnated reactionary rails relentlessly regarding Red Sox.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Silly sinister certifiable simpleton
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    "A .044 differential in career OPS is pretty significant."

    Moon - The problem is that we don't know what Lowrie is yet ... small sample size and data corrupted by injured playing time.  I'd like to give more recent stats more weight in light of the injury but that may just be wishful thinking.  

    I'll be curious to watch how things develop.  When Scoot gets back, I personally feel like Jed should still get something like 75% of the playing time until we have a better read on things.  He has a higher ceiling which is reason enough for me at this point.  If his v. RHP declines over the next 20-40 games, we'll have our answer, for now at least ... still holding out hope that he improves against righties over time which wouldn't be too surprising in light of the wrist injury.  Then again, the opposite wouldn't be that surprising either.  Either way, it will be interesting to watch.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Boom: I get what UR saying. But if we agree that VMART is a PT catcher at this point, then who catches FT if we'd have signed him over Papi?
    Isn't the team in the same boat?

    Katz: The Sox had all yearto sign VMART. The Nov. 23rd signing isn't why Boston didn't ink VMART. In fact, I think he wanted to re-sign w/Boston and probably would have taken a reasonable offer.

    No reasonable offer was made. It could have been made. There was plenty of time.
    If they saw him as the catching bridge to the farm, they would have re-signed him. The Papi signing had nothing to do with the catcher position.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I think Youk should get some extended rest at some point this year, and Jed at 3B with Youk at DH vs tough lefties (for Papi) could get Jed more PAs without benching Scutty so much.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Vlad with the big sac fly off Rivera.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Boom : I get what UR saying. But if we agree that VMART is a PT catcher at this point, then who catches FT if we'd have signed him over Papi? Isn't the team in the same boat? Katz : The Sox had all year to sign VMART. The Nov. 23rd signing isn't why Boston didn't ink VMART. In fact, I think he wanted to re-sign w/Boston and probably would have taken a reasonable offer. No reasonable offer was made. It could have been made. There was plenty of time. If they saw him as the catching bridge to the farm, they would have re-signed him. The Papi signing had nothing to do with the catcher position.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]Harness they were in play after the season ended. Their offer was enough with them not knowing the other sides offers that Victor might have taken it. By those reports the difference ended up being $8M according to Speier's report today.

    Now while we are operating in the space of hindsight, baseball GMs have no such luxury. They offer what they are prepared to honor if accepted.

    You come to a conclusion that fits your position which is since the player's first name rather than last name starts with a V and they did not sign him they never wanted him. Even though the club has a history of drawing firm valuations for its own players in FA and only crosses them with rare exception.

    Man, when it comes to all matters Tek or any player who threatens his career prospects you can be insufferable. I do agree with you that Ortiz never had or would have had anything to do with Martinez being re-signed. The CBA made it the first order of business and the team option had to be evaluated on its merits and the potential of things possibly happening further down the road. 

    Just my takes
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Katz: What does it have to do with Tek? His PT was so diminished in 2010, how is that relevant? I suppose he could have been brought back as a back-up to VMART, with Salty starting in AAA, or possibly using Salty as a 3rd stringer to cover 1st, but this isn't about Tek. And I resent that allusion.

    NOTE: Salty just delivered big-time!

    What this is about is why the team did not re-sign VMART.
    I already mentioned I didn't follow the winter stuff, so I'm in the dark as to what might have transpired. I never once said this had a thing to do with Tek.

    I do believe it had a lot to do with how the FO saw VMART as catcher.
    This stance was echoed elsewhere, as other teams still had a window to sign him as a FT catcher, but didn't. Aren't catchers who can hit like him still in demand?


    You prefer to use an undeserved tone instead of admitting that my take might very well be accurate. Victor Martinez is 32 - too young for a .300 hitting catcher with power to be a DH/back-up receiver. That's the truth.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Let's hope this big hit by Salty helps him feel like he belongs, boosts his confidence, and is the start of something good. Buch pitched a lot of pitches, but kept em off the boards. I think I am seeing Salty mature as a catcher.

    Remember, VTek was not awesome overnight.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    To follow up, VMART cleaned out a good Paps heater inside. The guy, when on, is a hitting stud. Nice comeback for Paps.

    No need to retort Katz. I doubt you would anyway, and I don't want any hard feelings. I admire you too much as a poster for that. If you want to think I would forsake a hitter like VMART for seeing Tek play 40 games a year, well go ahead. Nothing I say will alter UR thought process at this point.

    I believe you are in total denial as to VMART'S effect on a pitching staff. That cornerstones my take on why he is no longer a FT catcher. Since you brought up the similar situation with Tek being inked to 4 years at the same age, aren't you curious as to why it didn't happen for VMART - who wanted to remain a FT catcher? Who's the better hitter?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Let's hope this big hit by Salty helps him feel like he belongs, boosts his confidence, and is the start of something good. Buch pitched a lot of pitches, but kept em off the boards. I think I am seeing Salty mature as a catcher. Remember, VTek was not awesome overnight.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    It's a painfully slow process, Moon.

    Man, I never thought we'd score tonight.
    It's was all about keeping the Tigers off the board. Ya can't lose when that happens.
    Just a matter of time.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It was also great to see the way his teammates, especially the other starters, responded to Salty's big night! That tells me that the staff is behind him! And he did catch another shutout. I know the start was rough but I'm liking what I'm seeing more and more each day.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    harness, look at the age where VTek became a top "CERA-realted" catcher. Salty is about at that age. I think because he started in the majors at a younger age, people have expected a faster progression.

    While I agree on your take on VMart and why nobody wanted him as a catcher, but an argument could be made that Theo thought the VTek 4 year deal had been a mistake and "learned from it" to the point that that was the real reason he wouldn't offer VMart more years. Can we really know what Theo's thoughts were? I think katz makes some good points, and as it turned out, the offer Theo made for VMart was not that far from what he signed at with Detroit. You can't believe everything you read, but I did find this:

      According to boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox offered Martinez two separate contracts: "three years and $36 million or four years and $42 million," but neither seemed to be enough for the soon-to-be 32-year-old, as he took Detroit's offer instead.

    The $42M offer was just $2M less per year than what he signed for.
    If it was the second highest offer, it does show Theo did think he had some value, unless you believe it was just ceremony to save face with the fans (like the Jason Bay deal in some ways).

    The other factor was that Detroit didn't get 2 draft picks for signing VMart.

    We got 2 for not signing him. I think Theo might value that at more than the $8M differential.



      
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I know the start was rough but I'm liking what I'm seeing more and more each day. (jid)

    harness, isn't this the sign (small sample size yes) of CERA-related improvement. Buch "didn't have his best or worst stuff" tonight, and that is when the catcher has the most influence. We needed a shutout and got it.

    Thanks Salty.
    Thanks Buch.
    Thanks Bard and Paps.
     

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