A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The only reason I keep going over Victor's situation is because so many people here apparently think Salty has GREAT POTENTIAL or something I'm totally missing because in the past 3 years he has flat out stunk. The guy hit .250 in AAA ball last year in over 300 AB and had a case of the YIPS for God's sake. Was dumped unceremoniously for some A level players. Those are the facts. I actually pay attention to the facts. This isn't a pipe dream to me. I objectively think he is not at all likely to be our future catcher. I objectively want to do something about it. I know it sounds premature. I'm just looking at years of data here and the trends are not good. A lot of us are hopeful about the situation, including me, but I prefer to think about the team from a GM perspective and if I were GM I'd be looking for other options. At minimum as a back up in case someone gets hurt. And yes, I have revisited what I think got us in this situation in the first place.

    Good catchers are SO hard to find. All the more reason to have taken Martinez as a part time catcher / DH for the next few years. The first year or 2 he could have been our primary catcher. The next 2 he could have been our DH / part time catcher. 

    I don't want to offend anyone but I ask you all to just look at the numbers. Look at Salty's numbers for the past 3 years. He is no longer the stud who could clean out a high fastball right down the middle at will. He has to face these things calls curveballs now and off speed pitches and the opponents have this new fangled thing called "control". And the pitchers he is facing have mlb level stuff. He's not in Kansas any more guys ok. 

    And compare that to Victors track record. It should be the end of that discussion but some of you feel differently for some reason. Victor was a better catching solution this year than Salty ok. That should be pretty obvious. He also could have helped us a lot in future years. If we were to let him go mainly because we preferred Papi that makes some sense, as Papi is back. If we wanted the picks that makes sense but we shouldn't have gone into this year with Salty as the projected 1st string catcher. We need to do something about it soon.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Another trade is probably in the works, and trading Oki frees up some salary to maybe still get a catcher. I don't think they are just going to release Oki.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Or maybe some starter depth.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I don't think that many here now consider Salty with that high a ceiling. The polish came off a few years back. If anything, his tarnish is more the issue.

    The majority here don't get instilling him as the #1. I sure don't. But now that he's there, let's support him and hope the gamble pays off.

    Talking about VMART can't be done without discussing all the winter moves.
    It's not an isolated decision.

    Nice win tonight, eh Boom?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    boom, you may be right and Salty could end up a bust.

    However, the guy is only just turned 26. Just because he was brought up early, does not mean he must or will progress faster.

    Look at VTek at age 26/27.

    I agree that a team like this should not have put a kid in a situation like this.

    In terms of CERA, I think I have seen improvement and hope it continues.

    I had wished for a 3rd catcher this winter, especially since Salty has options.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Lots of things happening tonight. Iglesias going to Pawtucket to be replaced by Sutton. Lots of moves in motion. They want to give Iglesias playing time and to be honest I thought he could have gone to home earlier tonight on that bloop. Pedroia would have scored on that play.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Bowden being sent down also. Lots of potential roster moves happening.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Harness, I have been so busy lately I have missed quite a bit of the games. I saw the 9th inning only tonight. From the highlights it seems that Ortiz is primed for a great year, as we discussed yesterday.

    Beating Verlander is so freaking hard. The Sox are playing great baseball.

    Just ordered a pizza. Late night at work.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Someone is going to get dropped from the 40 man roster I would think, beyond Oki.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I wasn't aware Bowden was sent down.
    That's a bummer. I was looking forward to seeing him in his new role.

    I'm watching the replay and marveling at Verlander. Just amazing stuff. He blows AGONE  away on a 3-1 count with two expected fastballs.

    Geez.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    He was a lousy catcher and we already had a DH, which is really his only position.

    jid, you really need to get a grip. Ask Buchholz what kind of catcher VMart was.

    Lowrie and Bellsbury get the goose egg. Bellsbury's OBP is right back in the .340's where his career average. Hard to ignore big samples. What's unusual is how poor his plits are v. LHP. Lowrie is the opposite, very weak v. RHP.

    Rang is correct on VMart, who was perfect bridge into Ortiz's departure which will most surely be no more than another year or two.

    Good baserunning by Iggy, who had to stay close enough to 3rd to not pull an Ellsbury and get doubled off. It was a very close play at home and only the draw in OF and force got him out. Lowrie v. RHP amounts to mostly weak pops to the same bloop spot or strikeouts. Few people see beyond his potemkin current BA and OBP, which are falling fast. The more he plays, the more they will fall. He should reamin in the many days off plan that helped him since missing all that time in 2009 and 2010.

    Iggy isn't the fastest guy from point A to B, but he runs the bases beautifully and has a low center of gravity and cat like quickness in his footwork. I can't wait to watch him provide the defense that everyday SS is all about.

    Oki has looked quite sharp in his outings, after the one bad outing when he was first called up. The splits on the new guy look impressive, but Rich Hill is a reclaimation project who has hardly proved himself in limited inning of work. He's a local guy, which most surely is the poltics behind the switch.

    Millwood is truly a dig through the dumpster signing, but it's hard to depend upon a guy in his mid 40's who has been terrible for going on 2 years. The way Theo operates, Wakefield is completely unaccountable in his performances.

    Anyone see a good pitcher in a dumpster?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I'd like to point out that Varitek foolishly, in a pitcher's count, called for a pitch just off the plate that Austin Jackson easily chipped into RF. The pitcher missed the tarket slightly, but the pitch call should have been a fastball just above the letters.

    The biggest single moment wasn't Crawford's game ending hit, it was Papelbon striking out the great Miggy on a ball that was out of the strike zone but too close to take with 2 strikes and 2 outs. Miggy's OBP and slugging are what being superstar is all about, and his contract was the comparative for AGon's piggyback extension on top of the 6 million and change year one. Great moment for Papelbon, who is a tough cookie after getting hit and still remaining poised and easily getting the force out. Maybe Paps can have a father son type of talk with the two softy players on the Red Sox, Bellsbury and Lowrie.  
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon: A question:

    After Drew/Cam are off the books this winter, can the team sign Paps (10-12 mil a year) and still make a 2-year pitch to Papi - while staying under the tax threshold?
    (Assuming Drew is replaced by the farm).

    Or will it come down to keeping Paps or Papi?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    You'd have to keep Paplebon wouldn't you (if you have to choose)?  Crawford has to be producing at a higher level a year from now - and if so - even without Ortiz this is a high run offensive steam engine.  

    If you had to choose...
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


    Things I noticed during tonight's game.

    1.  I was astounded at the amount of pitches that Beckett shook off.  It was always my thought that Becket and Varitek were joined at the hip and in the mind.  If so, who so many shake off's?

    2.  If not mistaken, I think is was Salty in the bullpen catching and chatting away with the pitchers.  I view this as a good thing for him to understand their pitch preferences etc....getting to know the whole staff.

    3.  A while back, I wrote that all will be forgotten if we win ten in a row...well, we're getting closer.

    Majorleague...I know, at heart, that you're probably a good guy, but you've GOT to give credit where credit is due.  Ells and Lowrie are doing well.  Are you hoping they fail?....please answer that question.  You're a fan.  You ARE a Sox fan, correct?   If the clock is working, don't fix it. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


    Once upon a time, I thought it would be out of the question to sign Paps.

    Well, the heir apparent, Bard causes my ulcers to bleed.

    Do we actively go after Paps?

    I'm curious what you guys opinion on this is.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon: A question:

    After Drew/Cam are off the books this winter, can the team sign Paps (10-12 mil a year) and still make a 2-year pitch to Papi - while staying under the tax threshold?
    (Assuming Drew is replaced by the farm).

    Or will it come down to keeping Paps or Papi? 

    You know my position on paying huge money for a closer (in short, it rarely works), but I will go along with the idea.

    We lose these deals (Cap number):
    Drew: $14M
    Papi:  $12.5M
    Paps: $12M
    Cam: $7.25M
    Scut: $4.7M ($14m/3 assuming buyout)
    Wheel: $3M (if he goes over 65 gms we owe $3+M in 2012)
    VTek:  $2M
    Oki:    $2M
    Wake: $2M
    Taz:  $1.1M

    With some other s, this totals about $60M lost.

    Assuming we keep the same budget as this year, I think Papi and Paps can both be back.
    Lety's assume Paps @ $42M/3 ($14M per) and Papi @ $24M/2 ($12M per); thats $26M per year with these other slots to fill on about $36M per year:

    RF: Free Agent or Kalish (see below)
    OF: Kalish/Reddick/Linares
    SS: Free Agent, Lowrie, or Iglesias
    C:   Free Agent or Lavarnway or other kid
    RP: Free Agent or several choices from within
    SP: Free Agent or Doubront or other kid
    RP: Free Agent or several choices from within.

    A lot depends on Theo's view on how many of these kids can backfill these slots well enough to compete.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Things I noticed during tonight's game.

    1.  I was astounded at the amount of pitches that Beckett shook off.  It was always my thought that Becket and Varitek were joined at the hip and in the mind.  If so, who so many shake off's?

    I noticed the same thing. It seemed way more than usual. Maybe Beckett was just feeling something. He looked great...again!

    2.  If not mistaken, I think is was Salty in the bullpen catching and chatting away with the pitchers.  I view this as a good thing for him to understand their pitch preferences etc....getting to know the whole staff.

    I think he might be, at his age, more of a sponge than VMart was. I mean this in a good way for Salty.

    3.  A while back, I wrote that all will be forgotten if we win ten in a row...well, we're getting closer.

    How about 3 or 4- 6-7 game winning streaks bunched together?

    4) (edit) Do we actively go after Paps?

    I love Paps and all he has done for us. I just have a philisophical difference of opinion on the worth of any closer. Almost every closer who signs a huge deal goes on to be a let down. While the closer is a vital role on a team, many teams have won with low cost closers.

    I had hoped Bard or Jenks could fill the role, but so far, they have not done much to convince me.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Bard doesn't appear to be closer material to me. It's not his stuff. He just doesn't appear competitive enough, gutsy enough. Papelbon has the fire in the belly needed to win. Imagine how important that gets in the playoffs. I've said this about Bard since last winter, when everyone seemed to be thinking we could just slot Bard as closer.

    I'd rather have Jenks or another option but I wouldn't be surprised if Papelbon is brought back.


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Recent history , however, dictates he should be the starter and Scutaro the utility guy / part time starter.  If Jed's v.RHP #'s dip (or perhaps if they fail to improve along with his fielding) then a platoon is in order.  Instead of rational discussion, though, you choose to defend your opinions and predictions using spurious stats and " meaningless jocular phrases."  There is no substance to this comment or the meaningless phrases. It is, de facto, not rantional.   I imagine if you said a fire truck was orange, you would stand in the street pointing at it yelling "orange!" until it actually ran you over. You imagine wrong. I am certain that if you said "he's a great hitter", and "he" had career metrics that were simply commercial, you would continue to keep using the word "great" to describe "him". I've already given the details on Lowrie, and his SS defense is too poor to even broach a number on his year ending hitting metrics (which will end up around his career averages and not where he is now if he keeps playing everday). He will not satifsfy me as long as he's an everyday SS because he doesn't cut it on what the defensive requirements are for the position. If his splits v. RHP were closer to his current v. LHP splits, even that would not cut it and suffice in the face of his butchery as an everday defensive SS. The belly flop on the routine DP ball was the final straw if there was ever any doubt. He needs to be trying to play everday at 2nd base somwhere, but not here.
    Posted by majorleague
    ^^^ I don't see this post anywhere.  Did Softy get banned again?

    Katz: Nice posts re: Salty and the catching situation.  
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    m
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I think they basically troll for Softy every 2 weeks and ban him now. It's like they fish for him periodically and it doesn't take long to find him.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Things I noticed during tonight's game. 1.  I was astounded at the amount of pitches that Beckett shook off.  It was always my thought that Becket and Varitek were joined at the hip and in the mind.  If so, who so many shake off's? I noticed the same thing. It seemed way more than usual. Maybe Beckett was just feeling something. He looked great...again! 2.  If not mistaken, I think is was Salty in the bullpen catching and chatting away with the pitchers.  I view this as a good thing for him to understand their pitch preferences etc....getting to know the whole staff. I think he might be, at his age, more of a sponge than VMart was. I mean this in a good way for Salty. 3.  A while back, I wrote that all will be forgotten if we win ten in a row...well, we're getting closer. How about 3 or 4- 6-7 game winning streaks bunched together? 4) (edit) Do we actively go after Paps? I love Paps and all he has done for us. I just have a philisophical difference of opinion on the worth of any closer. Almost every closer who signs a huge deal goes on to be a let down. While the closer is a vital role on a team, many teams have won with low cost closers. I had hoped Bard or Jenks could fill the role, but so far, they have not done much to convince me.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]A catcher liking and performing well with a catcher can often have little to do with the catcher taking the pitcher by the hand and leading him through the game while the pitcher thoughtlessly throws whatever the catcher calls. Beckett often shakes off Tek. Heck Buchholz at this point shakes off everyone. I think Tek should have gotten high fives the other night for getting Aceves to accept one of his initial calls.

    The McCarver story with Carlton telling him on a visit to the mound that the only thing Tim knew about pitching was he could not hit it speaks to this. because while Carlton said that according to McCarver, he always wanted McCarver catching him, even with the great Bob Boone on the roster.  Those two (Beckett and Tek) have great chemistry at this point and that is all that counts, the why of it we will never know for sure because Beckett might not even be able to explain it.

    Bard's thing right now is he can get sloppy with his secondary pitches and when he does and the hitter is sitting on one they get hit really hard. And if all he throws is 98, most of his fastballs are on a string, so matter how fast if the hitter has seen enough and guesses right he has a decent chance to drive the ball. So Bard needs to use his two secondary pitches and if he isn't commanding them bad things can happen.

    Hate to say it but in a way the inning points out it isn't just other catchers who have pitchers get a little too much of the plate, the hitter sitting on that pitch and the ball exiting the confines quickly. That reaction is what a few thousand catchers relevance posts will do I suppose (my bad, I know.)

    Bard's eventually being a closer is yet to be seen. he bounces back from these tough outings well and that is a big part of being a closer because it is hard for a pitcher to accept when the game has been given to him to bring home after 8 innings of hard work by his teammates and he fails. To me greatness as a closer is at  least 60% how they handle the occasional failure.

    And whatever anyone wants to say about Papelbon, he's got the ability to go in shower and wash off a tough loss and come out the next night wanting the ball and believing he should have the ball.

    The biggest difference for Papelbon this year to me is better command (look at the K to BB ratio). It sets up the split. And when he throws one split for a strike in an appearance to any batter, once he is up on the count on any proceeding batter, that guy might as well head back to the dugout.

    Moon you are right that huge money for closers is a big risk but the lack of one is a sure way not to see post season. Tough call for the RS because getting the last 3 outs is special and more so on a team like the NYY or RS.   
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Sad day for Boom and all fans of underdog kids. Daniel Nava has been DFed today.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    One thing about Papelbon is that he knows how to pressure the hitter. He has that glare. He has imposing movement. He has confidence. He holds the ball to build pressure in key moments. He manipulates the situation to apply pressure, just as Papi does as a hitter BTW. It works. Look at his numbers with the bases loaded. Incredible.

    I think I say Cabrera's numbers with the bases loaded as him hitting over .420 in over 100 AB. Amazing.
     
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