A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Soxprospects has really geared up this year on the draft. They should have their own cable channel by now. Very impressive!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    A friend of mine will likely go in the top 50, and has been interviewed by the Red Sox and Yankees, amongst nearly every team in MLB. It's called due dilligence, which means only a few detailed GM's actually do the interviews.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Rumors are that Theo personally visited with Josh Bell last week, and then the very next day Bell said he was going to the Univ of Texas so don't draft him!

    How is this for hype:
     

    This could be a very special draft this year guys! Chances are it doesn't happen of course but wouldn't it be great?

    Lots of predictions but who really knows!



     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It's almost 12:30 PM now and I can't bring myself to go to work! Probably will forget to pick my kid up at school today at 3PM. I love draft day and the trading deadline. 2 best days in sports!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I've set up a twitter feed just for draft day. Following 115 sportswriters. It is one of the better ways to get the latest news and rumors on the draft.

    @boomerangscom
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Rang, that's some good stuff, on the draft on Twitter. I'm no fan of Twitter, but good information, just the same.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Jim Callis of Baseball America basically picked 8 out of the first 9 picks. Why even speculate when the guy is that good? Did something similar last year if I remember correctly.

    Would have liked Bubba Starling but what were the changes. We have a good chance of picking up a decent starting pitcher the way things are playing out.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    We are getting closer. Lots of top prospects left, for example:

    BA Top 200: Taylor Guerrieri (No. 10), Sonny Gray (12), Matt Barnes (13), Jed Bradley (14), Alex Mayer, Josh Bell, Blake Swihart?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    To me, our first pick now should be:


    One or the other should be available.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    They went to see Matt Barnes pitch just last week. Should have seen it coming but I thought he was a step down from the other 2. Still a great pick up for sure and I'm glad they went with a high upside college arm. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Here's the breakdown of CERA by pitcherswith over 25 IP this year.

    Note: almost all sample comparisons have lopsided IP differentials and/or small sample sizes, but here are the number (Red is the leader in CERA)
             (IP) CERA  Opponents OPS

    Beckett:
    w VTek (71)  1.77  (.505)
    w Salty  (5)    5.40  (.796)
    Sample size too small for comparative purposes (same as Buch was last year).

    Lester:
    w VTek      (7)   3.86  (.613) Sample size to small to judge comparatively.
    w Salty (68.1)   3.95  (.759)

    Buchholtz
    w VTek (18.2)  3.38  (.841) A wide IP differential: maybe too small to judge.
    w Salty    (52)   3.98  (.729)

    Lackey
    w VTek   (0)
    w Salty   (45)  7.60  (.880)  Can't be compared.

    Dice-K
    w VTek (35.1)  3.82    (.545)
    w Salty  (2.0) 31.50  (1.768) Too small

    Wakefield
    w VTek   (3.2)  2.45  (.517) Too small
    w Salty (39.1)  4.58  (.743)

    Aceves
    w VTek  (16.2)  4.35  (.683) A close IP sample, but still both are rather small.
    w Salty  (20.2)  2.16  (.656)

    Bard
    w Vtek  (15.0)  1.80  (.644) The closest, but 15 IP is still too small so far.
    w Salty (15.1)  4.11  (.533)

    Papelbon
    w VTek  (11.0)  4.09  (.653)
    v Salty    (14.0)  4.50  (.717) Close comp in IP, but both sample sizes too small.


    Sidenote: although CERA is not meant to be used as a total team number, her is the total comparison:

    Staff with...
    VTek  (220)  3.35  (.643)
    Salty  (311)  4.75  (.756)

    Some laughed when I said VTek might make a 0.75 ERA difference over a full year of numbers.

    The numbers are inconclusive so far due to small sample sizes and/or wide disparities in IP by catcher; however the trend seems to point towards VTek doing better with all but Aceves thus far (7 out of 8 pitchers)
























     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Matt Barnes interview:

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The guys the Sox got were rated much higher than their slots. Looks nice on paper.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I've got a question on CERA. Wouldn't the starter generally play against the tougher teams, and the bench guy be brought in more against the lesser teams normally. Wouldn't that be a significant factor over the course of the year, or over the course of years.

    Last year VMart was clearly the starter right. Clearly the guy with more catching starts. Salty is this year. More wear and tear. Higher level of competition...etc. 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Let's see the list of those with under 25 IP.
     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Let's see the list of those with under 25 IP.

    1) It doesn't surprise me that you seek out the smaller sample sizes.

    2) Get them yourself.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    No, I want all the sample sizes. Not just the one you gerrymander.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    You want it: you get it.

    The last time I did your homework for you, you denied the results and went with the absurd clown logic again.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Boom, to answer you question, I saw no indication that back-ups caught lesser competition when I thoroughly researched this last year. Back-ups played because of
    1) injury to starting catcher
    2) Day game after night game
    3) pitcher/catcher preference.

    The reason the data is tough to apply this year with Salty/Tek was just thoughtfully outlined by Moon. Tito is grouping Tek with Josh/Dice/Aceves.
    Salty with Lester/Buch/Wake. Neither are catching both pitchers with any regularity.
    The BP numbers are best weighted at the 100-120 game mark.

    My concern with the bulk of the staff is:
    A) Inconsistent mechanics
    B) loose focus
    c) injury - some of which might be due to A and/or B.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Guys, Moon, Five-K, etc. thanks for the feedback on RF.  You confirmed pretty much what I thought was happening.  Seemed like Reddick did well out there but I see the value of him playing every day right now.  The bottom line is either Cam or Drew is going to bring the glove and yes, we have all seen Drew get hot for a month.  I think he did it one month last year.  And Tito will remain loyal to his verterans whether a kid is ready or not.

    Boom, I hope tomorrow you can give some perspective on the first four draftees.  Seems like they've put a lot of time into Barnes and the young switch hitting catcher was no surpise.  The one that surprised me a bit was the outfielder from SC who has been injured.  I guess he would have gone much higher and had a great year last year, great skills.   But the fact that he was fast, speedy, and a left handed hitter threw me a bit.  If he's the best outfielder at that spot, then hey, I'm into it but it seems we ought to be looking for some right handed power to ballance the future up.  Comments? 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Katz: You made some very interesting points on the effect air has on night games out west. I doubt many here realized that. Nice job.

    Also, I commend you for sticking with the CERA discussion on the 44 R/8 G. thread.
    As I stated earlier, you are no rabbit. 791 take notice...
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    That is like the 8th slight at 791 you have made in two weeks - your quite the antagonistic little person aren't you.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Crit...I had such high hopes for this year's draft that anyone would have been a disappointment. I don't think we go a Ranaudo this year, and I was hoping for one.

    The more I read the more I like though. Sometimes with the numbers it is just so hard to tell. One guy might have fantastic numbers in the Big 8 and never make it past AA ball while another has an ERA of 3.8 in the Big East and be a #2 starter for Cleveland...etc. It is really hard to tell. I look for size, mph, quality of pitches, feel for pitching...etc. No one really knew Buchholz would turn out well and look what they got there. The guy was mainly a SS.

    We have reason to trust Theo and the team. I love the videos of Bradley. He reminds me of Guttierez defensively. That would be a welcome development. He has been part of an NCC championship and was MVP on that team. As well as league MVP if I remember correctly. He dropped a lot this year but look at baseball. In 200 AB, anything can happen.

    Barnes certainly has put up great numbers. The raw stuff is there and he's probably healthy. What can the player development staff do with him? He throws 97, is big and has a consistent record of success. He's a pocket Verlander, not the same but still high quality raw material.

    The numbers our new catching prospect put up with team USA are amazing. He's out there in New Mexico and we don't really know the high school competition but when he competed with team USA he was our best hitter, and they think he can stick at catcher. We seem to be getting a lot of Team USA players recently and I like that trend. Sean Coyle, Cechinni etc.

    It's 3:30 AM. I woke up still thinking about it. I'm obsessing just a little don't you think! I'm back in the rack!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It appears that the FFAFKAS (Flim Flam Artist Formerly Known as Softlaw) has been deleted again.  You could see it coming with the barrage of posts yesterday.
     
     
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