A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    11 out of 14 AL teams still within 5 games of a playoff spot!

    11 out of 16 NL teams within 5 (14/16 within 7.5).

    Teams likely out of it by the trade deadline:

    Houston     -10.5
    Minnesota  -11  (still some hope, I guess)
    Chic Cubs   -9.5
    KC & Oak   -8
    Wash          -7.5
    SD               -7

    Bubble:
    LAD    -6
    Pitt     -4
    NYM   -4.5
    Colo   -5
    Balt    -4.5

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon, post game and I should be elated but I'm actually bummed that Pedey is returning for possible surgery.  It seems like we've had injuries this year but haven't paid a big penalty yet.  People have stepped up or come off IR or been called up to step in for someone else, and they have performed.  All teams have injuries, and the Yanks for example have them too.  But after last year I'm worried about them building up.  We have a starter and two relievers out by my count and an infielder.  Hope the BB Gods are with us...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Pedey has been bothered for a while. Whatever has been bothering him needs to be fixed. My concern is that him attempting to come back so soon last year might just end up costing him much of his career. When you start having metal pins put into foot bones it can affect your speed and mobility long term.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    No, we've seen enough of our 2011 4.84 ERA and 5 plus ERA since the last half of 2009. Even with a week or more of squat time, "Wake" is quite poor. Thank goodness for Aceves, and why on earth he was in AAA so Wake could squat is beyond comprehension. But, at this stage, give the ball to Wake every 5 days, not every week, and get it over with so he breaks down sooner rather than later.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Softy, my sincere congratulations on your friend Maples accomplishing a 14th round pick ( around # 420 ) when he was a top 50 guy. He really knows how to position himself and I'm sure that he will end up making over $5 mil out of that move when he clearly was able to get well over $1 mil this year. I'm sure he will be so GREAT that he will be a top 5 baseball pick in 2 years and it will end up being worth it. After all, North Carolina has such a great history of developing pitching talent. We are still waiting for Andrew Miller to make it in the majors and Daniel Bard started out with around a 7.00 era in the low minors. North Carolina took that raw material and did little to nothing with them. 

    Maples is taking a big risk. When a high school kid can get above $1 million as a signing bonus he should generally take it. He could blow out his arm. He could end up dropping to a lower signing bonus level. He could even wash out. He should have taken the cash. The Cubs are one team who might still offer him that level of bonus. He should strongly consider taking it.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Andrew Miller finally had a solid outing tonight. 7 innings, 1 run allowed. Zero walks. The no walks is huge for him. I believe he has an out clause in his contract. We are going to have to bring him up or lose him, probably within the next few weeks.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Andrew Miller finally had a solid outing tonight. 7 innings, 1 run allowed. Zero walks. The no walks is huge for him. I believe he has an out clause in his contract. We are going to have to bring him up or lose him, probably within the next few weeks.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    He can opt out on the 15th. Plan on seeing him start next Tuesday against the Rays. Or else he's coming to New York after he opts out.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    merrang,

    Once again, you don't have a clue what you are talking about. You know nothing about the business of baseball, or the way prospects must position themsleves. A draft takes place every year, and the factors in handling interest with interested teams is beyond your ability to understand it.

    As for North Carolina, it has history of developing top talent, in the southeastern area which is deep in baseball history. New England is both weak in baseball talent and weak in baseball knowledge. The Red Sox are smart enough to know where the wealth of baseball talent is. 

    You should be more concerned about the future of the central government to meet the entitlement promises than about what Maples should or should not have done. Maples has the best people advising him, on a business that is as cut throat as any business. Not that you would have a better grasp of either matter;

    The only dowside of playing for the Red Sox is dealing with the people in New England.  My mother grew up there and left with her family, and never had any desire to return. No, she did not come from a bad economic or family environment. 

    Ted Williams most certainly would understand. There is the Red Sox, and the old history, and there is Boston, and the new history. 

    If you are going to continue to lauch insults to a school and a region, understand the state of your States. Pretty embarrassing, on both a values and an economic basis.  
     
     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    betteredthandead:

    "New England is both weak in baseball talent and weak in baseball knowledge." 

    Softlaw, if you lose on the merits of a discussion do you have to insult the intelligence of an entire region? 

    "You know nothing about the business of baseball"

    I've successfully managed a multimillion dollar business since 1993. And I pegged this discussion. The guy was projected to be a top 50 pick but his price demands dropped him to around a # 420 pick. Like you, he has a disproportionate view of his abilities. An enlarged self image, and baseball just confirmed that. He dropped more than any other player in the top 50. Teams didn't want to pay him what he's asking for.  End of discussion. His only hope now is to take a lesser offer or go to North Carolina and wait 2 years. The University of North Carolina, the place where good baseball prospects go to showcase their ability but not develop. If he ever makes the majors, he just delayed it and earned less.

    The only dowside of playing for the Red Sox is dealing with the people in New England.  My mother grew up there and left with her family, and never had any desire to return. 

    I didn't mention the region. You are the only one insulting a region. WHERE did I insult a region? Why are you such a nitwit? Personally I hope you stay the heck out of New England because you aren't wanted dude!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    When looked at from the perspective of improving our ability to beat the Yankees, the Crawford and Gonzalez signings make a lot more sense. Crawford is optimized in Yankee Stadium's left field defensively and as a hitter he should do well in Yankee stadium. Adrian is optimized in both Fenway and Yankee stadium. 

    And it's working. Our left hand dominant lineup is crunching their RH pitching. It's a wrecking crew against RH pitching, especially in Yankee stadium. A lot of southpaw call ups can beat us but the Sox just demolish RH pitching.

    I just hope if we do get to the world series we don't have to face the Phillies.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    just want to drop in with a Wakefield update...still healthy, still running to first and making plays at near 45, still pitching his team into the 6th inning of games and holding the lead, still doing his job, still being effective starter despite all the analysis that's been done by many posters who just don't get that Tim is a special pitcher with special talents and doesn't need the coddling or over-managing.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]When looked at from the perspective of improving our ability to beat the Yankees, the Crawford and Gonzalez signings make a lot more sense. Crawford is optimized in Yankee Stadium's left field defensively and as a hitter he should do well in Yankee stadium. Adrian is optimized in both Fenway and Yankee stadium.  And it's working. Our left hand dominant lineup is crunching their RH pitching. It's a wrecking crew against RH pitching, especially in Yankee stadium. A lot of southpaw call ups can beat us but the Sox just demolish RH pitching.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    The team does seem well constructed for Yankee Stadium.

    However it should also be noted that the team as a whole is hitting LH pitching and RH pitching almost identically.  784 OPS vs. RH, 780 OPS vs. LH. 



     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Wake looked better than his numbers. I think the "tumble" at 1B effected Wake a little.  I was worried about Aceves back in his former park. He let up the inherited runs, but the doubleplay was huge.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    It looked like Pedrioa was trying to pull Wake up off the ground before Wake really wanted to. Wake set the tone for the game as much as scoring 3 runs in the 1st inning (again) set the tone. He made many quality throws, lasted as long as you could ask a spot starter to, and I felt lucky to still have him on the team. Does Wake's very presence make or break this team? Maybe. This was against our cheif rival, battling for 1st place ( April aside ). We rested Buch and it didn't cost us. What's not to like?

    I was worried about Aceves too.... he might have some kind of glandular problem? Or did he dunk his cap in a bucket of water before he came in?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I'm just glad we kept all out options opoen this April. We have already used 20 pitchers and will likely use a few more before the season is over.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Most baseball talent is in rural souteastern and southern regions of the country. Which is kind of ironic considering how many bigoted provincial New Englanders who make the biggest part of the Red Sox fanbase

    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/02/usborn_baseball.php


    http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php?y=2010

    http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    ^^^ Don't forget the urban elitist new england liberals ... we're big fans tooMoney mouth
    It's surprising "how many ... make up the biggest part" ... really?  They are rolling with laughter in Hahvahd Yahd

    Oh, and last time I checked much of the MLB talent comes from points a little further south than NC.  Then again, we are equal opportunity bigots ... we don't like anyone who pronounces their R's or hasn't watched Good Will Hunting about 47 times.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I had never read about an analysis of the "knuckleball hangover effect".  Plus I like the Wake/Aceves duo idea!

    Over the Monster
    Manager Terry Francona had mentioned that Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves would be used with match ups in mind, but both are right-handed, and neither has major platoon splits, so the how of that was somewhat up in the air.

    Last night, though, we may have seen a glimpse of what Francona was talking about. Wakefield threw 91 pitches over 5 1/3 innings and allowed five runs in that stretch. Once he got into trouble in the middle of the game, Francona called for Aceves... and no one else. Aceves has been stretched out, as he has started three games for Boston and two in Pawtucket, so if he is pitching well, there is no reason he can't go 3-4 innings every five days. He pitched better than Wakefield last night, even, going 3 2/3 frames with four strikeouts against one walk, one run allowed, and four hits using 59 pitches, 63 percent of them strikes.

    If Aceves can be something of a dedicated reliever every fifth day, then the rest of the Red Sox bullpen can get an extra day to rest (or, at least, pitch less often than relievers do following a team's fifth starter). Fresher versions of www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/69494/daniel-bard">Daniel Bard, www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/816/bobby-jenks">Bobby Jenks, Matt Albers, and the other arms in there could mean a lot to this team--remember how fatigued Bard was down the stretch last year, when the entire weight of holding leads was thrust onto the shoulders of he and
    www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/298/jonathan-papelbon">Jonathan Papelbon?

    This isn't a new idea by any means. Grady Fuson has used tandem starters in the minors for years, rather than relying on minor league relief arms to finish out games, but it is not an idea that has caught on everywhere in the majors. It also isn't entirely necessary everywhere in the rotation (or possible, given the lack of quality arms league-wide) but in the fifth spot in the rotation, where you aren't taking innings away from a more productive pitcher, it has merit.

    Plus, there is something to the idea of a "hangover effect" for knuckleball pitchers. Hitters tend to perform worse the day after facing a knuckleball pitcher, www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11372" target="_blank">according to research by Ben Lindbergh last year:

    If a moderate knuckleball "hangover" effect exists, this is essentially what we’d expect it to look like. After facing Wakefield, strikeouts go up, homers go down, and overall performance suffers, with rates rebounding on the second day of release, and returning to near-normal levels by the third day of deliverance.

    Batters have also performed worse following Wakefield's exit from the game, though, as Lindbergh notes, that may simply be due to the nature of high-quality relievers coming in after the starter.

    This does lend weight to the idea that Wakefield should be the fifth starter, though, and not Aceves, as Aceves may see a boost to his own performance by virtue of being a non-knuckler following Wakefield, in addition to the extra rest afforded the other relievers. Let's hope that this is something Boston is doing intentionally, and that they will continue to toy with this fifth-starter experiment

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Most baseball talent is in rural souteastern and southern regions of the country.   http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/02/usborn_baseball.php http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php?y=2010 http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php
    Posted by devildavid[/QUOTE]
    Just for kicks I mapped this out since it is easier to digest visually:

    The locations are clustered and the clusters will group or split depending upon what zoom level you use, but the smallest cluster size is US state or country outside US (since that is the data provided by BA).  Enjoy.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    After all, North Carolina has such a great history of developing pitching talent. We are still waiting for Andrew Miller to make it in the majors and Daniel Bard started out with around a 7.00 era in the low minors. North Carolina took that raw material and did little to nothing with them. 

    WHERE did I insult a region?

    In addition to insulting intelligence, in your last post, you insulted one of the best baseball program and talent developers in baseball.

    You multi-million dollar business is bubble puffery, as the business world and multi-million dollar businesses are frequently in bankruptcy due to debt service. Not that the business of baseball has anything to do with it.

    You don't have a clue about draftee value or what was offered or anything else. You pegged your own idiocy with zero knowledge of the facts or the business workings. "Draft dodging"  is part of the business, with another draft next year, etc. You don't understand that, anymore than you understood that the Twins could afford Mauer or that Tex and countless others "draft dodge".

    The Red Sox know very well the leverage of those who rebuff there low ball advances by using the current draft system. It's part of the business.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Softy, this one is a classic. Am I to assume that the entire draft is made up of low ball advances? Maybe your guy can just hold out forever. That's what you would do! If he doesn't sign this year he has to wait 2 more years and there is zero indication that his value will improve.

    "The Red Sox know very well the leverage of those who rebuff there low ball advances by using the current draft system. It's part of the business."

    No amount of money is worth it to you right! You don't want to sell yourself short now!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Since you have never seen him play and have zero knowledge of the details in his case or other draft dodgers, your comment is not worthy of a response. It is that ignorant.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I had never read about an analysis of the "knuckleball hangover effect".  Plus I like the Wake/Aceves duo idea!

    Over the Monster
    Manager Terry Francona had mentioned that Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves would be used with match ups in mind, but both are right-handed, and neither has major platoon splits, so the how of that was somewhat up in the air.

    Last night, though, we may have seen a glimpse of what Francona was talking about. Wakefield threw 91 pitches over 5 1/3 innings and allowed five runs in that stretch. Once he got into trouble in the middle of the game, Francona called for Aceves... and no one else. Aceves has been stretched out, as he has started three games for Boston and two in Pawtucket, so if he is pitching well, there is no reason he can't go 3-4 innings every five days. He pitched better than Wakefield last night, even, going 3 2/3 frames with four strikeouts against one walk, one run allowed, and four hits using 59 pitches, 63 percent of them strikes.

    If Aceves can be something of a dedicated reliever every fifth day, then the rest of the Red Sox bullpen can get an extra day to rest (or, at least, pitch less often than relievers do following a team's fifth starter). Fresher versions ofwww.sbnation.com/mlb/players/69494/daniel-bard">Daniel Bard,www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/816/bobby-jenks">Bobby JenksMatt Albers, and the other arms in there could mean a lot to this team--remember how fatigued Bard was down the stretch last year, when the entire weight of holding leads was thrust onto the shoulders of he and 
    www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/298/jonathan-papelbon">JonathanPapelbon?

    This isn't a new idea by any means. Grady Fuson has used tandem starters in the minors for years, rather than relying on minor league relief arms to finish out games, but it is not an idea that has caught on everywhere in the majors. It also isn't entirely necessary everywhere in the rotation (or possible, given the lack of quality arms league-wide) but in the fifth spot in the rotation, where you aren't taking innings away from a more productive pitcher, it has merit.

    Plus, there is something to the idea of a "hangover effect" for knuckleball pitchers. Hitters tend to perform worse the day after facing a knuckleball pitcher, www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11372" target="_blank">according to research by Ben Lindbergh last year:

    If a moderate knuckleball "hangover" effect exists, this is essentially what we’d expect it to look like. After facing Wakefield, strikeouts go up, homers go down, and overall performance suffers, with rates rebounding on the second day of release, and returning to near-normal levels by the third day of deliverance.

    Batters have also performed worse following Wakefield's exit from the game, though, as Lindbergh notes, that may simply be due to the nature of high-quality relievers coming in after the starter.

    This does lend weight to the idea that Wakefield should be the fifth starter, though, and not Aceves, as Aceves may see a boost to his own performance by virtue of being a non-knuckler following Wakefield, in addition to the extra rest afforded the other relievers. Let's hope that this is something Boston is doing intentionally, and that they will continue to toy with this fifth-starter experiment

    Excellent piece, tom. 

    I have often brought up the idea of using tandem starters in a few situations from the past (Dice-K + Wake last May was one example). It saves the pen once every 5 days, and perhaps Wake and Aceves could be used in relief between tandem starts depending on how long they went the previous game.

    harness brought up the fact that Tito often does not use our best relievers when Wake pitches, so this hurts his chances of getting the win when he leaves with a lead or men on base. This year, it seems like almost all of his runners left on base have scored.  Tito also seems to rest everyday players more when Wake pitches, but that is just my gut feeling. I do not have any numbers to support it.

    I have often thought batters would have more difficulty adjusting to the relivers after Wake has pitched, but never paid much attention to the start after Wake. I guess it makes sense that batters (especially those on a hot streak) might be knocked off stride a bit during a Wake game the night before.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Hey Moon

    Not to nitpick but Tito has gone L r L r  tonight and I usually prefer it.  Boone Logan threw 33 pitches last night.  He usually throws less than 10.  I don't know if they have a rightie with great splits vs LHH.  I think Scutaro could have been 7 to 9.


    I know Cameron has been very poor value-wise so far as a Sox, but we dodged a bullet with Bay.  .749 in 2010 and .586 in 2011.  I never understood why he ever saw a fastball. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I didn't like Scutty before Drew last night, but it worked (I guess).
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    With Sabathia starting I think he didn't want to move Crawford down. Scutaro's splits versus Sabathia are quite good. .345 BA, .429 OBP in 36 PAs.
     
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