A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tito is changing his lineup constantly. I don't think the problem is the lineup and I still think Ellsbury is going to have a great year.

    It is great to see Pedroia cranking it up at least and Adrian looks for real. Lackey just can't hit his spots at all. I'm not seeing a lights out staff here but if Lester and Buchholz do well and Matsuzaka/Lackey/Beckett can be above average we can still get in the playoffs. I don't see any of those last 3 becoming dominant any time soon though. It's really tough to develop a great team by signing aging pitchers.

    I've been on this beat for a while now but Gonzalez is a great situational hitter. He can hit and run, knock the ball through the SS hole if someone is stealing ...etc. He even bunted for a hit today. I really think he benefits when men like Crawford and Ellsbury are on base in front of him. Hitting him 3rd after Pedroia gets the most out of him right now IMO.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I think it's possible that the AL East will be so competitive that no team may make 95 wins. I just don't see any magic number for wins needed to make the playoffs.
    Posted by devildavid[/QUOTE]

    I feel the same way. I think the parity in the A.L. East will be like nothing we've ever seen before.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It's too early to make judgements, but it is nice to see AGon start out quickly after his injury.

    I'm expecting an extension press conference any day now.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

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    [QUOTE]And I do not fault Francona for where he is placing Ortiz against LH (most LH) since dumping him way down in the order serves less purpose when the game is inevitably turned over to the bullpen. It isn't as though Francona isn't look at the numbers at all when he asks Drew to sit out opening day because a filthy LH is going. katz, with all due respect, I do not see that benching Drew, who is better vs LHPs than Papi, but ot daring to move Papi down makes any sense. I don't get it. When a lefty starts, usually the order gets 2-4 PAs before the pen comes in. Then they bring a righty in and maybe, just maybe, Papi might face one righty in a key situation dictated by his #5 slot. The opps can always bring back in a lefty if it's really crucial. It's just not anywhere near worth trading in 2-4 near automatic outs (vs some lefties) for the off chance that his spot in he order just may possibly get up late in the game for 1 crucial PA an the opps have no lefty releif pitcher to use. Last year Papi had just over 1 PA vs LHPs that he had a poor career record against beforehand. In those PAs, he had a .500 OPS... all while batting 5th or better. I'm sorry but I can't see how having him 5th a few times late in the game, instead of 7th or on the bench as a PH'er is going to come close to making up for this loss. My guess is that if Cam or Lowrie is playing instead of Papi, we'd get them vs the lefty starter for 2-4 PAs, then when they bring a righty in, we'd have Papi to come in and PH for a AB or more if he can PH for the DH.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Well a couple of thoughts.

    First Drew was better than Ortiz versus LH pitching before 2010 when Francona could no longer "protect" Drew from better LH pitchers as he did from 07-09. They were vitrtually the same hitters last year, with Ortiz having a slightly higher BA and SLG but lower OBP. But any way you look at it the difference between an OPS of .599 to .611 isn't enough to say one was better than the other. And as I say Francona used to use LH pitching as the way of determining JD's days off until last year when the OF was AAA guy's and Drew.

    It is early but in limited appearances versus LH Ortiz has been just fine. 3 for 9 with a HR. Personally I'd like to see what Cameron can do with the playing time for Drew and get Lowrie more ABs in Scutaros case before the RS and/or the rest of the regulars start to hit before I'd yell for Francona to move Ortiz to the bottom third of the order.

    If he used straight splits wouldn't he have to bat Crawford ninth or start McDonald against LH pitching? 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I don't see the EE or the Sox winning 93 this year.  That could change if the EE gets a solid starter via trade, they do have loads of chips to trade.

    I think Balt and Toronto will a few more than they have, but TB might not.

    Hughes only hit 91 twice today both were way outside I think.  He has lost 4 mph that he could not afford to lose, unlike Bard for example.  If he doesn't regain the mph he might not even be a 5th starter.

    I think the best you can hope for from Lackey is maybe a decent half season and a tick over 6 innings per.

    There is no reason to be confident in Lackey, Beckett, Dice, Garcia, Burnett, Nova, and now Hughes. I don't see how these guys lead either  team to the mid 90s in wins.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    No, it was Theo. Many of the players commented how passionate it was. They said they never heard Theo talk like that before.

    Wasn't that Tito's job?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The O's are not for real. They have improved and will win more games than the old doormat teams, but they are not for real. They are not contenders, they are an improved team that is a 2011 pretender.

    There has always been only one place to put Crawford. Despite his continued early struggles, the lineup was set properly with Pedroia in the 2, Agon in the 3 and Youk and Ortiz behind. Ellsbury's only proper place is at the bottom to turn the lineup over better. Cameron in CF, hitting 8th, is the best overall lineup, but that isn't going to happen. Ellsbury at 8 and Scutaro at 9 is reversed from what it should be, but it's close enough as the rest of the lineup is finally what I Knew management would learn the hard way.

    Ellsbury should have been told he will hit 9th, back in the spring, and Crawford should have been told he will leadoff and needs to worry about nothing else but getting on base. The #3 move was a disaster, as he's trying to drive the ball instead of slapping it the other way and getting on base. If he's told to relax and just focus on getting on base from the leadoff spot, he will be the most efficient he can be. I suspect they still haven't written off the notion of moving him back to 3, which is nothing short of incompetent with the other players on this team. With Pedroia, the team only needs one base stealer and the top of the lineup to get on base, and Pedroia being able to hit balls out of the zone and execute the run and hit is the proper lineup. Ellsbury getting on base from the bottom makes the lineup turn over better, but Cameron should be used more in CF because he is a much better defender and the games almost always end up in the pen if a righty starts. Ellsbury could then be plugged in from the bench as pinch runner or hitter, for either Drew or Cameron. Crawford should be the only 140 to 150 game guy. Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew should divide the other 2 spots time, as Cameron's RH bat is needed more often to balance out the lineup. The mistake being made is thinking that Ellsbury and Crawford was some kind of an advantage in competition. It isn't. They do not compliment this lineup in the AL East. I don't see Ellsbury every sitting for Cameron, but at least putting Ellsbury at the bottom of the lineup is a drastic improvement in use of the roster.

    The Red Sox should near the summer trade deadline shop Ellsbury and Lackey to the NL to get out from under Lackey's contract and net back a really good young RH OF part that fits the long term future. If Lackey strings out a few decent starts, that's the perfect time to shop him and try and get rid of him.  Assuming Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, DiceK, Aceves and Doubrant are all in good health, going to the last couple of months should be fine. Atchison and other farm hands are fine as emergency spot starters over the last month or two. 

    Lackey is counting his money and is a bust. The data was there to show the huge value mistake in his contract. But 3 solid starting pitchers are all that is needed, so either Beckett and/or Dicek will need to step up and take care of that problem. Aceves could have helped in the close game losses. Now that he is up for a DL guy, the Red Sox still need to bring up another lefty to make a good pen even deeper. Wakefield needs to be DL'd or DFA.

    Big hit for Drew, and an aging out but still capable Ortiz continues to be a Yankee killer. Pen was almost perfect, thanks to Aceves and no Wakefield.

    AGon is about as poised a first base defender as one will see, and he's always been a gifted overall hitter. That's why he is a true superstar, unlike Crawford. It's past the CBT capture date for being able to sign AGon to an extension, so it's surprising that no extension has been agreed to as was reported. The Red Sox were hedging on the shoulder injury, so it stands to reason that they should have to pay a premium for waiting to see that AGon's health is fine and he's still performing as the young superstar that he is. Given the total payroll for 2011 and what comes off in 2012, the Red Sox will pay just about whatever premium AGon's agent demands.  Whatever they were trying to save on the CBT should go into AGon's pockets, in addition to a premium for ownership hedging. Given the absurd 6M that Agon gets from his Padres assigned contract, the extension premium will still make AGon a fair value as the new superstar face of the Red Sox.

    The division will come down to the Red Sox and the Yankees, unless a core starter has a long term DL. It will come down to which team gets better starting pitching, with the Yankees likely making a summer move. Epstein is handcuffed on any quality pitching acquisition mid-season moves, and will simply have to hope that Beckett, DiceK, and perhaps Doubrant and Aceves collectively get it done for the rotation year end production. The Rays offense and pen got worse, and the starting pitching did nothing more than go sideways. They will not be a 2011 contender. The O's and Jays are improved, but the first month of the season is a completely false picture of the standings at the end of the marathon.

    With 155 games to go, I'd say the Red Sox are still in the AL East race. The right adjustment was made to the lineup, with Pedroia, AGon, Youk in proper place. A few more adjustments should be made, but the GM is slow to make even the obvious adjustments that shouldn't even be needed in the first place. The lineup was just one of them.

    Go Red Sox!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Really? I think that's the next alternate lineup they use. I personally don't care as long as the speed stays together.

    I was being a bit sarcastic, but Tito is irritating me enough now to get close to advocating change. The problem is that I am not sure if Theo even thinks the order is an issue. I do not think Tito will ever drop Papi from the line-up against most lefties or even put him below #6, so in that sense, I do not think we will ever see my favorite line-up vs LHPs.

    But the season is still young, not enough of them are hitting well enough to have success in any batting order. So, I guess what I mean is that the batting order isn't the problem. The batters in it are. But this will change, it has to.

    Again, I am not saying change the order because we are 0-6. I do not use small sample size to make definitive judgements. I have been saying AGon and Youk should bat 3/4 or 4/3 since the day we traded for AGon. This is not a knee-jerk reaction on my part. I have stated my reasons, supplied ample evidence to support my position, and am just voicing my opinion again.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    And I do not fault Francona for where he is placing Ortiz against LH (most LH) since dumping him way down in the order serves less purpose when the game is inevitably turned over to the bullpen.

    It isn't as though Francona isn't look at the numbers at all when he asks Drew to sit out opening day because a filthy LH is going.

    katz, with all due respect, I do not see that benching Drew, who is better vs LHPs than Papi, but ot daring to move Papi down makes any sense. I don't get it.

    When a lefty starts, usually the order gets 2-4 PAs before the pen comes in. Then they bring a righty in and maybe, just maybe, Papi might face one righty in a key situation dictated by his #5 slot. The opps can always bring back in a lefty if it's really crucial. It's just not anywhere near worth trading in 2-4 near automatic outs (vs some lefties) for the off chance that his spot in he order just may possibly get up late in the game for 1 crucial PA an the opps have no lefty releif pitcher to use.

    Last year Papi had just over 1 PA vs LHPs that he had a poor career record against beforehand. In those PAs, he had a .500 OPS... all while batting 5th or better. I'm sorry but I can't see how having him 5th a few times late in the game, instead of 7th or on the bench as a PH'er is going to come close to making up for this loss.

    My guess is that if Cam or Lowrie is playing instead of Papi, we'd get them vs the lefty starter for 2-4 PAs, then when they bring a righty in, we'd have Papi to come in and PH for a AB or more if he can PH for the DH.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Hideki would be an improvement over Wakefield. It doesn't matter what Jenks, Papelbon and Bard numbers are against lefties, they can't pitch every night or in the middle innings of many games. Having another lefty helps as it provides another pen middle and earlier innings option. In reality, there should be no such thing as "a mop-up role". Another lefty is a useful part, something Wakefield is not. Having him waste a roster spot as this gold nugget starter when someone hits the DL is cause for great laughter. The Red Sox have ample other batting practice "innings eaters" to roll out on the retread role.

    As bad as keeping Lowell on the roster was, Wakefield is about the worst case I've seen in a long time. What Wakefield has been doing is on the level of girl's softball, where those girls could chip the ball to him and still beat him to the bag. He looks fat, old and bad. He his fat, old and bad. When he comes in, it does make me laugh. I'm sure it makes the other team smile and salavate.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]95-plus wins isn't out of the realm of possibilities yet. The Sox were 12-13 last April, but by midseason were on a 96-win pace or so before all the injuries hit. They play 27 games in April. To get to at least 13-14 for April, they just have to go 13-8 after the 0-6 start -- 12-8 after today's win. For a team that should be good, that shouldn't be an impossible scenario. And there is nothing wrong with having one month under .500.  That should be the goal now for April -- to get within a game either way of .500 for the month. For instance: In 2009 (95 wins), they had months of 15-14, 13-12 and 15-13. That's half a season of being just four games over .500. In 2008 (95 wins), they had an 11-13 month. In 2007 (96 wins), they had a 13-14 month. In 2005 (95 wins), they had months of 12-11 and 14-13. In 2004 (98 wins), they had an 11-14 month. By that measure, the Sox still would be in decent shape this year if they went just 11-9 the rest of the month to finish 12-15. And the 2004 Sox weren't great the other five months. Ind addition to the 11-14 month, they had months of 16-14 and 14-12. So for three months, half the season -- and they were three consecutive months -- the Sox were 41-40.  So can we all keep some perspective?
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    Don't forget that their first 3 games were against the defending AL champs and all 6 of their first 6 games were on the road (where their record has been significantly worse over the past several seasons).

    The Orioles are legit, the Jays are still the Jays and I expect the Rays to turn it around too.  95-96 wins may very well win this division.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I said in January:

    1) Crawford
    2) Pedroia
    3) Youk
    4) AGon
    5) Ortiz
    6) Drew/Cameron
    7) SS of the day
    8) CA of the day
    9) Elles

    There is no reason to not stick with this line-up.  Another juggling of the machine will not be the answer.

    This is a nice line-up, except I move Cam to 5 vs LHPs and sit Papi unless he is within 150 OPS points with the other choices (Lowrie/DMac/Drew) vs that particular pitcher.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we never see this line-up all year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Until it doesn't take 95 winsto make a post season out of the AL East is safe to assume it will IMHO. Both the RS and NYY are capable of winning a lot of games where their pitching is pedestrian at best. Both have good backend in their bullpens. The O's look poised to assume the role of the Rays. In the AL Central they have at least two teams capable with the unbalanced schedules to post over 90 wins. And as far as the RS pitching goes, it is always dangerous to draw too many conclusions from April either way. Ditto for the NYY, Hughes is a lot better than he showed today by example. I agree with you Boom in as much as the line-up isn't why the RS lost their first six. With their team ERA they'd have to have averaged 9 runs a game to have won the first six. And I do not fault Francona for where he is placing Ortiz against LH (most LH) since dumping him way down in the order serves less purpose when the game is inevitably turned over to the bullpen. It isn't as though Francona isn't look at the numbers at all when he asks Drew to sit out opening day because a filthy LH is going. I personally was pleased to hear Francona say that getting A-Gon in the 3 slot was important and loved they way he phrased it as getting him to the plate in the first inning. Looking at it this way, would I think that the RS were in the race in mid-August if they trailed the O's by 4.5 and the NYY by 4? I would, so clearly the tiny sample set of total failure until today, combined with expectations that are very high do tend to taint the picture. All is just a bit better with the world after a RS win and evn more so when that win was at the expense of the EE. just my takes
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    To be precise, It only took 90 wins to secure the WC in 2010. The other 5 wins were gravy.

    In 2009, Boston won 95, but only needed 88 wins to reach the PO's.
    Same for 2008.


    To Roy: There's a lot of truth to UR post about considering the human element.
    Stats can't measure a player's heart.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I said in January:
    1) Crawford
    2) Pedroia
    3) Youk
    4) AGon
    5) Ortiz
    6) Drew/Cameron 7)
    SS of the day
    8) CA of the day
    9) Elles
    There is no reason to not stick with this line-up.  Another juggling of the machine will not be the answer. This is a nice line-up, except I move Cam to 5 vs LHPs and sit Papi unless he is within 150 OPS points with the other choices (Lowrie/DMac/Drew) vs that particular pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if we never see this line-up all year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Really? I think that's the next alternate lineup they use. I personally don't care as long as the speed stays together.

    But the season is still young, not enough of them are hitting well enough to have success in any batting order. So, I guess what I mean is that the batting order isn't the problem. The batters in it are. But this will change, it has to.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Really? I think that's the next alternate lineup they use. I personally don't care as long as the speed stays together. I was being a bit sarcastic, but Tito is irritating me enough now to get close to advocating change. The problem is that I am not sure if Theo even thinks the order is an issue. I do not think Tito will ever drop Papi from the line-up against most lefties or even put him below #6, so in that sense, I do not think we will ever see my favorite line-up vs LHPs. But the season is still young, not enough of them are hitting well enough to have success in any batting order. So, I guess what I mean is that the batting order isn't the problem. The batters in it are. But this will change, it has to. Again, I am not saying change the order because we are 0-6. I do not use small sample size to make definitive judgements. I have been saying AGon and Youk should bat 3/4 or 4/3 since the day we traded for AGon. This is not a knee-jerk reaction on my part. I have stated my reasons, supplied ample evidence to support my position, and am just voicing my opinion again.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon, I was at this point last year for reasons we both discussed at length. That's why I advocated his warranted promotion to the FO and giving Farrell a shot.

    When Tito had a stocked team with 2 possible HOF'ers in the rotation, he had plenty of margin for error. His assets clearly outweighed his liabilities. Now, that differential isn't anywhere near what it once was.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Who gave the Knute Rockne speech that fired up the team: Tito or Theo?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Well, the O's won again. Only Texas has a better record than them. I think ur right Moon when ya say 95 wins will be enough to get into the playoffs. Might even be less. I never bought into the 100-win hyperbole. Not after what I saw last year - and I'm not  just referring to the injuries I think the AL is too good and balanced to have the wildcard be over 95 wins. I still think we can win 99-100. Is 100-56 that improbable?

    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Yes, highly improbable. This is a very flawed team. Basically, they replaced vmart and beltre with crawford and agon, they tried to fix the bullpen which hasn't worked out to well as of yet and they have the same shoddy rotation as last year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Boom, don't you think 95 wins will get us in? 95-61 is .609 ball. 94-62 is .603 ball. 93-63 is .596 ball. 96-60 is .615 ball. 97-59 is .623 ball. 98-58 is .628 ball
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    93 wins might get us in this year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I'm not "softy", I hated Lugo who was another foolish contract from the mind of Theo. Whoever "softy" was, it's pretty easy to see that he or she must have embarrassed you enough to where you feel the need to keep invoking that moniker. Don't be so defensive, you might want to rethink the need to be defensive. It makes you look inferior.

    Save the O's quote all you would like, and I will make a note how you saved it when you later deny buying into the O's being for real. I repeat, the O's are not for real. Now, save that;)
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    95-plus wins isn't out of the realm of possibilities yet. The Sox were 12-13 last April, but by midseason were on a 96-win pace or so before all the injuries hit. They play 27 games in April. To get to at least 13-14 for April, they just have to go 13-8 after the 0-6 start -- 12-8 after today's win. For a team that should be good, that shouldn't be an impossible scenario. And there is nothing wrong with having one month under .500. 

    That should be the goal now for April -- to get within a game either way of .500 for the month.
    For instance:
    In 2009 (95 wins), they had months of 15-14, 13-12 and 15-13. That's half a season of being just four games over .500.

    In 2008 (95 wins), they had an 11-13 month.

    In 2007 (96 wins), they had a 13-14 month.

    In 2005 (95 wins), they had months of 12-11 and 14-13.

    In 2004 (98 wins), they had an 11-14 month. By that measure, the Sox still would be in decent shape this year if they went just 11-9 the rest of the month to finish 12-15.
    And the 2004 Sox weren't great for all of the other five months. In addition to the 11-14 month, they had months of 16-14 and 14-12. So for three months, half the season -- and they were three consecutive months -- the Sox were 41-40. 

    So can we all keep some perspective?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The O's are not for real. They have improved and will win more games than the old doormat teams, but they are not for real. They are not contenders, they are an improved team that is a 2011 pretender.

    Takes a pretender to know a pretender, but I agree. The O's will sink like a "led balloon".
    Nice of you to create an alter ego so you can sneak on this thread and "keep your word".

    Sidenote: alter egos should be different from their egos: yours are identical.


    There has always been only one place to put Crawford. Despite his continued early struggles, the lineup was set properly with Pedroia in the 2, Agon in the 3 and Youk and Ortiz behind. Ellsbury's only proper place is at the bottom to turn the lineup over better. Cameron in CF, hitting 8th, is the best overall lineup, but that isn't going to happen. Ellsbury at 8 and Scutaro at 9 is reversed from what it should be, but it's close enough as the rest of the lineup is finally what I Knew management would learn the hard way.

    Scutty 8 and Ells 9th is a nobrainer as wll. I'm wondering about Tito's brain these days.

    I like how you used a one game sample size on another thead to show how batting Crawford 1st worked, even though he went 0h for 5. Only you can move the goalpost that far and actually believe your own spew.

    Ellsbury should have been told he will hit 9th, back in the spring, and Crawford should have been told he will leadoff and needs to worry about nothing else but getting on base. The #3 move was a disaster, as he's trying to drive the ball instead of slapping it the other way and getting on base. If he's told to relax and just focus on getting on base from the leadoff spot, he will be the most efficient he can be. I suspect they still haven't written off the notion of moving him back to 3, which is nothing short of incompetent with the other players on this team. With Pedroia, the team only needs one base stealer and the top of the lineup to get on base, and Pedroia being able to hit balls out of the zone and execute the run and hit is the proper lineup. Ellsbury getting on base from the bottom makes the lineup turn over better, but Cameron should be used more in CF because he is a much better defender and the games almost always end up in the pen if a righty starts. Ellsbury could then be plugged in from the bench as pinch runner or hitter, for either Drew or Cameron. Crawford should be the only 140 to 150 game guy. Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew should divide the other 2 spots time, as Cameron's RH bat is needed more often to balance out the lineup. The mistake being made is thinking that Ellsbury and Crawford was some kind of an advantage in competition. It isn't. They do not compliment this lineup in the AL East. I don't see Ellsbury every sitting for Cameron, but at least putting Ellsbury at the bottom of the lineup is a drastic improvement in use of the roster.

    Wow! Something new fron softy... not!

    The Red Sox should near the summer trade deadline shop Ellsbury and Lackey to the NL to get out from under Lackey's contract and net back a really good young RH OF part that fits the long term future.

    I love this one: you have bashed Lackey for over a year and now think at his high cost, someone will givbe us a good young OF'er for him. It also make a ton of sense to trade a low cost young OF'er, so we can trade a starting pitcher to replace Ells with... a low cost younf OF'er... not!

    If Lackey strings out a few decent starts, that's the perfect time to shop him and try and get rid of him.  Assuming Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, DiceK, Aceves and Doubrant are all in good health, going to the last couple of months should be fine. Atchison and other farm hands are fine as emergency spot starters over the last month or two. 

    Tell us why Douby, Aceves, and Atchison deserve such strong confidence...

    Lackey is counting his money and is a bust.

    I thought with Lugo, you said that money should not be counted when determining if he defines the word "bust". Moving the goalposts is your specialty.

    The data was there to show the huge value mistake in his contract. But 3 solid starting pitchers are all that is needed, so either Beckett and/or Dicek will need to step up and take care of that problem. Aceves could have helped in the close game losses. Now that he is up for a DL guy, the Red Sox still need to bring up another lefty to make a good pen even deeper. Wakefield needs to be DL'd or DFA.

    Wow...another new idea.
    We have no lefties anywhere in the system other than Oki who have better histories vs LHBs than guys like Bard, Paps and Jenks. Who is this lefty you want called up?


    Big hit for Drew, and an aging out but still capable Ortiz continues to be a Yankee killer. Pen was almost perfect, thanks to Aceves and no Wakefield.

    AGon is about as poised a first base defender as one will see, and he's always been a gifted overall hitter. That's why he is a true superstar, unlike Crawford. It's past the CBT capture date for being able to sign AGon to an extension, so it's surprising that no extension has been agreed to as was reported.

    Is this your lame attempt to seperate yourself rom th softy persona? Oh, tha's right, softy already began to backtrack on his AGon/contract psoition anyways, so you're cool.

    The Red Sox were hedging on the shoulder injury, so it stands to reason that they should have to pay a premium for waiting to see that AGon's health is fine and he's still performing as the young superstar that he is. Given the total payroll for 2011 and what comes off in 2012, the Red Sox will pay just about whatever premium AGon's agent demands.  Whatever they were trying to save on the CBT should go into AGon's pockets, in addition to a premium for ownership hedging. Given the absurd 6M that Agon gets from his Padres assigned contract, the extension premium will still make AGon a fair value as the new superstar face of the Red Sox.

    The division will come down to the Red Sox and the Yankees, unless a core starter has a long term DL. It will come down to which team gets better starting pitching, with the Yankees likely making a summer move. Epstein is handcuffed on any quality pitching acquisition mid-season moves, and will simply have to hope that Beckett, DiceK, and perhaps Doubrant and Aceves collectively get it done for the rotation year end production. The Rays offense and pen got worse, and the starting pitching did nothing more than go sideways. They will not be a 2011 contender. The O's and Jays are improved, but the first month of the season is a completely false picture of the standings at the end of the marathon.

    With 155 games to go, I'd say the Red Sox are still in the AL East race. The right adjustment was made to the lineup, with Pedroia, AGon, Youk in proper place. A few more adjustments should be made, but the GM is slow to make even the obvious adjustments that shouldn't even be needed in the first place. The lineup was just one of them.

    We're just 3 games behind the Yanks with 155 to play. If we gain one game every 39 games, we're ahead.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]The O's are not for real. They have improved and will win more games than the old doormat teams, but they are not for real. They are not contenders, they are an improved team that is a 2011 pretender. There has always been only one place to put Crawford. Despite his continued early struggles, the lineup was set properly with Pedroia in the 2, Agon in the 3 and Youk and Ortiz behind. Ellsbury's only proper place is at the bottom to turn the lineup over better. Cameron in CF, hitting 8th, is the best overall lineup, but that isn't going to happen. Ellsbury at 8 and Scutaro at 9 is reversed from what it should be, but it's close enough as the rest of the lineup is finally what I Knew management would learn the hard way. Ellsbury should have been told he will hit 9th, back in the spring, and Crawford should have been told he will leadoff and needs to worry about nothing else but getting on base. The #3 move was a disaster, as he's trying to drive the ball instead of slapping it the other way and getting on base. If he's told to relax and just focus on getting on base from the leadoff spot, he will be the most efficient he can be. I suspect they still haven't written off the notion of moving him back to 3, which is nothing short of incompetent with the other players on this team. With Pedroia, the team only needs one base stealer and the top of the lineup to get on base, and Pedroia being able to hit balls out of the zone and execute the run and hit is the proper lineup. Ellsbury getting on base from the bottom makes the lineup turn over better, but Cameron should be used more in CF because he is a much better defender and the games almost always end up in the pen if a righty starts. Ellsbury could then be plugged in from the bench as pinch runner or hitter, for either Drew or Cameron. Crawford should be the only 140 to 150 game guy. Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew should divide the other 2 spots time, as Cameron's RH bat is needed more often to balance out the lineup. The mistake being made is thinking that Ellsbury and Crawford was some kind of an advantage in competition. It isn't. They do not compliment this lineup in the AL East. I don't see Ellsbury every sitting for Cameron, but at least putting Ellsbury at the bottom of the lineup is a drastic improvement in use of the roster. The Red Sox should near the summer trade deadline shop Ellsbury and Lackey to the NL to get out from under Lackey's contract and net back a really good young RH OF part that fits the long term future. If Lackey strings out a few decent starts, that's the perfect time to shop him and try and get rid of him.  Assuming Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, DiceK, Aceves and Doubrant are all in good health, going to the last couple of months should be fine. Atchison and other farm hands are fine as emergency spot starters over the last month or two.  Lackey is counting his money and is a bust. The data was there to show the huge value mistake in his contract. But 3 solid starting pitchers are all that is needed, so either Beckett and/or Dicek will need to step up and take care of that problem. Aceves could have helped in the close game losses. Now that he is up for a DL guy, the Red Sox still need to bring up another lefty to make a good pen even deeper. Wakefield needs to be DL'd or DFA. Big hit for Drew, and an aging out but still capable Ortiz continues to be a Yankee killer. Pen was almost perfect, thanks to Aceves and no Wakefield. AGon is about as poised a first base defender as one will see, and he's always been a gifted overall hitter. That's why he is a true superstar, unlike Crawford. It's past the CBT capture date for being able to sign AGon to an extension, so it's surprising that no extension has been agreed to as was reported. The Red Sox were hedging on the shoulder injury, so it stands to reason that they should have to pay a premium for waiting to see that AGon's health is fine and he's still performing as the young superstar that he is. Given the total payroll for 2011 and what comes off in 2012, the Red Sox will pay just about whatever premium AGon's agent demands.  Whatever they were trying to save on the CBT should go into AGon's pockets, in addition to a premium for ownership hedging. Given the absurd 6M that Agon gets from his Padres assigned contract, the extension premium will still make AGon a fair value as the new superstar face of the Red Sox. The division will come down to the Red Sox and the Yankees, unless a core starter has a long term DL. It will come down to which team gets better starting pitching, with the Yankees likely making a summer move. Epstein is handcuffed on any quality pitching acquisition mid-season moves, and will simply have to hope that Beckett, DiceK, and perhaps Doubrant and Aceves collectively get it done for the rotation year end production. The Rays offense and pen got worse, and the starting pitching did nothing more than go sideways. They will not be a 2011 contender. The O's and Jays are improved, but the first month of the season is a completely false picture of the standings at the end of the marathon. With 155 games to go, I'd say the Red Sox are still in the AL East race. The right adjustment was made to the lineup, with Pedroia, AGon, Youk in proper place. A few more adjustments should be made, but the GM is slow to make even the obvious adjustments that shouldn't even be needed in the first place. The lineup was just one of them. Go Red Sox!
    Posted by BaseballGM[/QUOTE]

    I'm gonna save that statement about the O's...just in case your posts mysteriously disappear.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Who gave the Knute Rockne speech that fired up the team: Tito or Theo?

    My guess?

    Pedey.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Until it doesn't take 95 wins to make a post season out of the AL East is safe to assume it will IMHO. Both the RS and NYY are capable of winning a lot of games where their pitching is pedestrian at best. Both have good backend in their bullpens. The O's look poised to assume the role of the Rays.

    In the AL Central they have at least two teams capable with the unbalanced schedules to post over 90 wins.

    And as far as the RS pitching goes, it is always dangerous to draw too many conclusions from April either way. Ditto for the NYY, Hughes is a lot better than he showed today by example.

    I agree with you Boom in as much as the line-up isn't why the RS lost their first six. With their team ERA they'd have to have averaged 9 runs a game to have won the first six.

    And I do not fault Francona for where he is placing Ortiz against LH (most LH) since dumping him way down in the order serves less purpose when the game is inevitably turned over to the bullpen.

    It isn't as though Francona isn't look at the numbers at all when he asks Drew to sit out opening day because a filthy LH is going.

    I personally was pleased to hear Francona say that getting A-Gon in the 3 slot was important and loved they way he phrased it as getting him to the plate in the first inning.

    Looking at it this way, would I think that the RS were in the race in mid-August if they trailed the O's by 4.5 and the NYY by 4? I would, so clearly the tiny sample set of total failure until today, combined with expectations that are very high do tend to taint the picture.

    All is just a bit better with the world after a RS win and evn more so when that win was at the expense of the EE.

    just my takes
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Sense this is the 'Realistic Look @ 2011' thread.

    I'm not trying to make excuses for this team, but there are some hard facts that any reasonable fan cannot ignore.

    1) Recent Injuries
    2) Recent Surgery
    3) Extended missed playing time from the previous year
    4) New additions/Chemistry
    5) New personel

    You can fill out your roster on your fantasy baseball team and everything seems A-OK.  However, this is a real team, with real, living, breathing people on it.  As fans, we want instant team chemistry, when some of these players obviously are having a hard time finding chemistry with themselves (see 1-3, + 5 ).  This team is a work in progress. My guess is that they, if they're lucky, hover around .500 baseball for atleast the first half of the season, and hopefuly don't get too far behind. They could surprise me. But as for now, I'm not expecting too much. Not this year, anyway. Too many factors in putting together a winning team.  I'm by no means writing them off.  But they have some serious individual hurdles that won't show up in the box score, are invisible to ESPN, and Boston.com will probably miss.

    I'm still gonna watch though!
     

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