A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Thanks for the research harness. Looks like h's about like Napoli and VMart.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


    Well, maybe we'll win tomorrow...

    It can't be all Salty's fault...can it?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Boom, if management changes their mind now about Salty..after only 8 games,  they may just as well release him.  It would be that devastating to any confidence that he may have gotten.  To be honest, I'm more worried about Crawford than Salty.  Paying tons of money for a punch n' judy show, for me, is demoralizing. 

    It would probably be best if we all stepped back a bit and allowed 'tincture of time' to do it's work.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    ...and Softy who is clearly baseballGM behind ( again for the most part ).

    I choose to believe tom-uk over GM.

    tom says he caught softy red-handed. GM slipped by answering as softy, then quickly deleted his post.

    More evidence... we all know softy holds some pretty bizarre positions. What are the odds that GM has exactly the same positions and the same style and vitriol. The same enthusiastic level of bashing of precisely the same players softy despises.

    It's obvious softy's trying to save face by pretending he is not breaking his promise not to come on this thread.

    To me, he has proven his dishonesty countless times, so these actions do not surprise me.

    He's becoming such a pretender, I wonder if even he knows who he is anymore.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Head went 4 for 4 with 2 HR down in Greenville. Lot's of talent emerging this year. Jacobs has 3 mammoth HR so far. Quite a few guys starting hot.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    It was a seminar on the true art of pitching.
    Posted by harness


    I haven't seen Beckett pitch like that in a long time. 2-3 yrs. His pitch selection baffled the Yanks. His command of the strikezone was extremely accurate (save for a few at-bats, but quickly got back on the horse).  Lets hope it's contagious. Not sure who deserved Player of the Game (although it's not particularly important), Beckett or Pedroia? Pedroia had me a little worried this past week complaining about the pin in his foot. Seems like the Sox should've won by soo much more. They're hitting, but having trouble scoring. And looking at this past week of 2-7 ball, not only was Texas off to a hot start, the Indians were too. Who knew?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


    If it takes Tek to draw out Josh's 'A' game, it wouldn't bother me one bit if he caught every game he pitches.  What was it? 2 balls to the outfield? outstanding!  His velocity was great, breaking balls were great, and command was terrific....a guarantee for success.

    A secondary nice thing about the game tonight is that it hopefully takes some of the pressure off of Crawford.

    Boom, tried to go to that page..not sure if successful or not.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I lost respect a long time ago, but then he changed for awhile last winter. I am the forgiving type, but then he started misrepresenting nearly every point I ever had. Couple that with his always present super-sized ego and his taking credit for being first to hold every position that turns out right, was just too much to put up with.

    I was taught to never stand quiet for people telling lies and spouting hatred. I know it may have seemed extreme to answer every one of his lies--and there were many--but I felt I had to. Too many newbies and old enablers were falling for his tired old routines.

    It's ironic how he praised my thread for so long, then once I started criticizing him again, he bashed me, the thread and promised never to come here. Then, of course, he realized this was the best thread for talking serious Sox talk not related to one game threads and couldn't resist.

    He's an outright joke now. It's not even pathetic anymore. It's sick.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Wake & Lester may be Boston's two best bets when facing NY.
    They are the only ones can can negate those LH bats.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : The Indians are like a AAA team. It's not going to continue. Agreed?
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    Agreed that it won't continue? Yes. Undoubtedly. 

    But last time I checked they are a Major League Baseball team that's won 7 in a row.

    Essentially, my point was more about what were the odds of that happening.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : If you recall, when they interviewed C. Young during the game, he was asked about the difference in Beckett between last night and his fir t start. Young replied (paraphrasing) that he mixed his pitches up better and had a good rhythm with Varitek . They also posted these numbers (updated): Josh w/Tek: 61-27. Josh w/o Tek: 11-14.
    Posted by harness


    Let's be honest, if Salty keeps this up he will lose starts anyway.  Wouldn't be surprised to see Varitek start 2 out of every 5 games.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1for89. Show 1for89's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    danny, you make some great points, but I don't recall anyone sayingwe were "surefire"... Is anybody ever "surefire"? Do many other teams have much less "issues" than we do... on paper?
    Posted by moonslav59


    NESN's Eric Ortiz stated as FACT, the RS will win 100 games:

    "The Red Sox have won 100 or more games three times in their 110-year existence. They will make it four in 2011."

    Even the title of the article is a statement of FACT.

    http://www.nesn.com/2011/01/2011-red-sox-will-challenge-1927-yankees-for-title-of-greatest-team-in-major-league-history.html

    Best.

    1-7.

    Team.

    EVAH!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : I haven't seen Beckett pitch like that in a long time. 2-3 yrs. His pitch selection baffled the Yanks. His command of the strikezone was extremely accurate (save for a few at-bats, but quickly got back on the horse).  Lets hope it's contagious. Not sure who deserved Player of the Game (although it's not particularly important), Beckett or Pedroia? Pedroia had me a little worried this past week complaining about the pin in his foot. Seems like the Sox should've won by soo much more. They're hitting, but having trouble scoring. And looking at this past week of 2-7 ball, not only was Texas off to a hot start, the Indians were too. Who knew?
    Posted by emp9
    The Indians are like a AAA team. It's not going to continue. Agreed?


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : His "cost" might be greater than you could imagine. Moon : I doubt Tek could handle that many starts. Not w/o going down or playing with broken bones...yet again. 45% is pushing it.
    Posted by harness


    Agreed; I was thinking if he caught Beckett (20%) + played v LHP (25-33%); this may be too much.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    No Amp, it is not all Salty's fault.  Pitching.  Timely hitting.  Hitting.  Errors.  Slow starts.  Managing decisions.  There are plenty of reasons.  I'm hoping this is just a bad dream from which we can awake.  Another win tomorrow vs. NYY, taking two of three would be a big help.  Sometimes these two teams just club each other.  Maybe tomorrow is our turn again.  I hope so.  I watched some of the game today and they just seemed sort of clueless.  So many guys going through this funk rather than just one or two off track...
    Posted by Critter23



    Well, Crit, I think Moon and Harness are just being gentlemen by holding back
    their feelings about Salty.  I'll never, ever have the patience and statistical interest or knowledge they have, but I still vote for giving the guy some slack.  Actually, I'm really starting to feel the guy is a diamond in the rough who is improving on the fly.  Theo, Terry and others must have seen something in him.  If, down the road, he doesn't work out, I'll be the first to acknowledge my short-sightedness.  But hell, he's young, a switch-hitter, good arm and great work ethic.  It WILL take time to get on the same page as all the pitchers, but with Tek's help, hopefully he will.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Who would you say are the best 5 or so CERA-related catchers in MLB today. Are there any that are possible trade targets? I know it's early, but I'm beginning to wonder.
    Posted by moonslav59


    That would be near impossible to answer, Moon.
    It would mean drawing comparisons to receivers who play in different venues, with different defenses, and catch different pitchers. When I researched this, I did find that catchers who couldn't hit were on the high end of CERA-related data.
    As you've said before, ya can't stay in the majors unless you have something to offer.

    Cash is a great example. Posters will remember him as a pathetic hitter, which he was. And his physical skill-set beyond his arm was only fair. But few got more out of a pitching staff. In fact, despite his anemic bat, the 2010 Sox did very well (win-loss) when he caught if you look at the same pitchers others were receiving.

    And the BP was better with Cash than anyone else.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    ...and Softy who is clearly baseballGM behind ( again for the most part ). I choose to believe tom-uk over GM. tom says he caught softy red-handed. GM slipped by answering as softy, then quickly deleted his post. More evidence... we all know softy holds some pretty bizarre positions. What are the odds that GM has exactly the same positions and the same style and vitriol. The same enthusiastic level of bashing of precisely the same players softy despises. It's obvious softy's trying to save face by pretending he is not breaking his promise not to come on this thread. To me, he has proven his dishonesty countless times, so these actions do not surprise me. He's becoming such a pretender, I wonder if even he knows who he is anymore.
    Posted by moonslav59


    It's time we upgraded this term to...LIAR.

    Softlaw said he'd never come back to this thread.

    Softlaw said he doesn't adopt other handles beyond his own.

    He a conniving liar. Any respect I ever had for him is gone.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    No, it was Theo . Many of the players commented how passionate it was. They said they never heard Theo talk like that before. Wasn't that Tito's job?
    Posted by harness


    Tito's talking to them all the time.  This was something different.  Kind of like the CEO stopping in to give a little pep talk to the employees and making a big impression on them.  It's a rarity for a GM to do this and I'm sure it will stay that way. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    I lost respect a long time ago, but then he changed for awhile last winter. I am the forgiving type, but then he started misrepresenting nearly every point I ever had. Couple that with his always present super-sized ego and his taking credit for being first to hold every position that turns out right, was just too much to put up with. I was taught to never stand quiet for people telling lies and spouting hatred. I know it may have seemed extreme to answer every one of his lies--and there were many--but I felt I had to. Too many newbies and old enablers were falling for his tired old routines. It's ironic how he praised my thread for so long, then once I started criticizing him again, he bashed me, the thread and promised never to come here. Then, of course, he realized this was the best thread for talking serious Sox talk not related to one game threads and couldn't resist. He's an outright joke now. It's not even pathetic anymore. It's sick.
    Posted by moonslav59


    That's the sad part.

    Law vanished when Buck proved him wrong. He is a coward.

    Softlaw uses a ridiculously transparent mask - to mask how wrong he was at so many levels last year. His GM projections never transpired, so he attacks Theo instead of admitting the obvious.

    He took the position that CERA was voodoo because it's not widely accepted by GM's.
    Now that VMART is no longer a FT catcher - that no GM wanted him in that capacity - he won't even debate the issue with me. Instead he wears the mask of a liar.

    Softlaw is a born liar.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    harness, while you were gone I openly wondered about us getting Martin to catch. What are your views on his CERA-related abilities?
    Posted by moonslav59


    Well, he's been a work horse for the Dodgers, so there's not much to go on.
    Here's some data dating back to his Rookie year: (Keep in mind the short sample sizes):

    D. Lowe  w/Martin    3.30 ERA
                 w/Navarro: 1.69 (32 IP)

    C. Billingsly (2010) w/Martin:  4.18 ERA  (97 IP)
                                w/Bajaras: 2.43 ERA (40 IP)
                                w/Ellis:     2.50 ERA  (36 IP)

    Kershaw: (2009)    w/Martin:  3.33 ERA (127 IP)
                               w/Ausmus: 1.29 ERA (42 IP)

    Kershaw: (2010)   w/Martin:  2.94 ERA (137 IP)
                               w/Barajas: 2.53 EEA (32 IP)

    H.Kurota (2010)    w/Martin:  3.56 ERA (116 IP)
                              w/Barajas: 2.11 ERA ( 36 IP)

    These are all I could find for the key starters with more than 30 IP.
    The consistency against Martin raises a warning flag.
    Offensive-minded catchers tend to be that way because that's where their skill-set lies. There are obvious exceptions.

    I'm not sure how much of an upgrade, if any, he is over Posada.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : That was also the Word with VMART early on last year. But the data says otherwise. Salty does not have good numbers handling his pitchers, going back to his rookie season. But I believe he has more potential for improvement than a veteran like MARTIN or NAPOLI or POSADA or VMART. In ur other post, were you refering to spending some time on the BDC Private forum ?  
    Posted by harness


    Heh, Harness. Tek showed the kid how it is done tonight didn't he. And it is fantastic to see Beckett rounding into shape. Lester and now Beckett are getting in form. Others soon to follow hopefully...the juggernaut begins starting this series hopefully.

    Did I hear that Longoria is out for a while, and now Manny. Something tells me the Rays are going to have difficulty scoring runs for a while.

    The forum I was discussing is below. They are not sending out approval emails. Just apply and probably within a day you, Moon, Amp, Crit...etc. will be approved ( I'm sure ) and then we can for the most part leave the trolls behind, and Softy who is clearly baseballGM behind ( again for the most part ).

    Anyone here can impersonate the style and the sorts of things that each of us say. None of us know pretty much anything for certain regarding who is who but I' around 90 % sure Softy is baseballGM. Even if he isn't I'm not thrilled with him anyway!

    Regarding the private forum, there will be more to come on it in the future. It's still very limited, and quite buggy, but I think it's worth being involved in and it has quite a bit of personalization potential. Some time savings fetures also. I think we should join it and check it out. Most of you guys still haven't applied it seems to me. Cater is there, Fivekatz and others but I hope more of you do take part. Below is the one I was describing:

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : I haven't seen Beckett pitch like that in a long time. 2-3 yrs. His pitch selection baffled the Yanks. His command of the strikezone was extremely accurate (save for a few at-bats, but quickly got back on the horse).  Lets hope it's contagious. Not sure who deserved Player of the Game (although it's not particularly important), Beckett or Pedroia? Pedroia had me a little worried this past week complaining about the pin in his foot. Seems like the Sox should've won by soo much more. They're hitting, but having trouble scoring. And looking at this past week of 2-7 ball, not only was Texas off to a hot start, the Indians were too. Who knew?
    Posted by emp9


    If you recall, when they interviewed C. Young during the game, he was asked about the difference in Beckett between last night and his fir t start.

    Young replied (paraphrasing) that he mixed his pitches up better and had a good rhythm with Varitek.

    They also posted these numbers (updated):
    Josh w/Tek: 61-27.
    Josh w/o Tek: 11-14.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1for89. Show 1for89's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Check out Pawtucket's result from tonight. Life is Good!: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_11_pawaaa_bufaaa_1
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    What?  No polo league results?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    When a guy starts out in mlb you expect some hitting problems, but the likelihood of the Salty train even becoming a .260-270 average guy is rapidly leaving the station. He looks like he has a good swing and word is he is handling the pitchers okbut the offensive results are not there across the board. In 2009, he hit .233 in 310 AB. Not a single projection has him above .251 this year and his OBP struggles to reach .320. the only thing to like in his offense is the probability of some power down the road. He seems to have an ok approach and can stroke a ball to LF even while hitting RH. He should be able to reach the wall for lots of doubles and a few HR. He just isn't doing it with enough frequency yet. The Sox struck lightning with Tek and they seem to like the similarities. They gambled. We are approaching well over 600 mlb AB though now and he's hitting .247 so far for his career and he's on a clear downward trend. Sometimes guys with an acute uppercut swing need a lot of AB to become successful. He may blossom in a year or 2 and give us 25 HR. He's decent defensively from all appearances. I think they thought they would win enough games with the talent they have and that that talent would carry them while he grew into that slot. If there is any key to our recent demise though, IMO it's Salty. No one on the staff is pitching well except maybe Lester now. No one seems to be hitting his spots. And he's hitting under .200 with virtually no power. We need to start Tek, tomorrow.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    That was also the Word with VMART early on last year. But the data says otherwise. Salty does not have good numbers handling his pitchers, going back to his rookie season. But I believe he has more potential for improvement than a veteran like MARTIN or NAPOLI or POSADA or VMART.

    In ur other post, were you refering to spending some time on the BDC Private forum?  
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Not only do we have to see how badly the Sox are doing, with Sabathia pitching tomorrow. We have to hear about how GREAT the Orioles are. Enough already Harness! 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    That's just the point, Boom. Most here say the O's will not contend this year. I say they will be major contenders. I equate this to playing a 35-1 horse. In Harness racing, that means collecting 7-8 grand in two minutes. It's rare as hell to find a horse like this.

    Back in late March, I projected them to:
    WIN 90(+) GAMES  and/or
    FINISH 2ND     and/or
    BEAT OUT NY.

    I offered a wager (on another thread) to anyone who wishes to take me up on this, allowing me 35-1 odds. The offer still holds.

    You'll have to indulge me, Boom. I have a pension for longshots.
    I came up short on my 100 win projection in 2009.
    I came up short in my 2010 projection that the Sox would have their best road record of the last decade.

    If the O's go 84-80 over the remainder of the season, I hit my greatest baseball longshot. And even better, I can rub it in to Softy that he was WRONG!
     
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