A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon, I get your points on CERA. But Harns showed a graphic with win/loss records and ERA with each catcher and it dramatically favored Tek. But without Lackey in the calculation, the numbers are getting closer together. Also, if memory serves me, Salty was the catcher for each of our 0-6 starter games.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from playball01. Show playball01's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    "Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right..."

    When they're one in the same does it mean that I am standing in a circle? Hmmm
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    jidgef,

    I could not agree more about what a joy A-Gon is to watch hit and he plays his position quite well too. I honestly felt we never did replace Manny as an offensive player, until now.

    I agree there is little reason to move Crawford just yet, aside from it just sounds insane to have a guy making that much hitting that far down in the line-up.

    Albers has been a pleasant surprise and it appears that both Jenks and Wheeler really did have physical issues so over the long haul the BP may well round out to be as good as the 2009 pen was in terms of depth and quality.

    There's no denying that Tek and Beckett got it going on or that Buch and Tek don't. In the long run Beckett and Dice seem to be the best pair for Tek to catch. And it was nice to see Tek have a big hit last night. Lester seems to be comfortable whoever the catcher is and Lackey has had good and bad games with Salty. No matter how relevant the catcher is, Lackey's issues appear to run deeper. He will correct them IMO.

    Ellsbury and Lowrie for all the back and forth are doing what the FO thought they would, what their amateur and minor league careers suggested they could do and it has been a ray of light in these few weeks were others have struggled.

    When Pedey and Youk lock in, watch out. And at some point Ortiz is going to get a long ball stroke going too. As ugly as the 2-10 streak was at some point this team will have a 10-2 streak and what is in between those top of the world - bottom of the barrel streaks will define the season IMO.


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Some clown claimed that AGon was going to be selling tickets in San Diego.

    Crawford is paid well to hit well, so the 142M superstar contract isn't working out for the current #8 slotted hitter. He's hot, though, if you exlude a large part of the season.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    moon, it's mid-May already with 1/4 of the season gone.

    What's the call on the catcher situation?  My own take is that the jury is still out until Memorial Day, tho Salty and Tek look more promising than they did a few weeks ago.

    And should we persuade Lackey to take a leave and tend to his home issues?  Woudl be best for both entities, methinks.   But as an aside, it just seems we have another California dude who doesn't want to play on Boston, truly (hello, Nomar). And who would take his place?  Buch, Lester and Beckett seem ok.  Dice-K is erratic.  Maybe a deal for a pitcher would make more sense than a catcher, unless the thinking is Doubront could be called up.

    What think?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


    MJ, Do you have anything good to say about OUR team or the players you dislike?

    Personally, I'm not a big fan of a few of the players(Drew, for one), but it is what it is.  I might not like him, but I still hope he does well.  Don't you feel that way about Ellsbury, Lowrie,....and the host of others you don't like?  Don't you want them to succeed?

    In essence, unfortunately, you're beginning to sound like a person who wants OUR players to fail in order to prove your point.  I think I've sat in many more dugouts than you have and this behavior is totally opposite of a good teammate.

    I really wish you'd re-evaluate the negativity.

    Edit: MJ=Majorleague
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    "Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right..."

    When they're one in the same does it mean that I am standing in a circle? Hmmm

    Perhaps, or softy is so fat he can be on both sides of you at once.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    moon, it's mid-May already with 1/4 of the season gone.

    What's the call on the catcher situation?  My own take is that the jury is still out until Memorial Day, tho Salty and Tek look more promising than they did a few weeks ago.

    I agree. 60-70 games is a better sample size, but I do see improvement in Salty behind the plate and at the plate, and VTek at the plate. It's still or weakest link right now.

    And should we persuade Lackey to take a leave and tend to his home issues?  Woudl be best for both entities, methinks.   But as an aside, it just seems we have another California dude who doesn't want to play on Boston, truly (hello, Nomar). And who would take his place?  Buch, Lester and Beckett seem ok.  Dice-K is erratic.  Maybe a deal for a pitcher would make more sense than a catcher, unless the thinking is Doubront could be called up.

    I don't see a deal for a starting pitcher at all. I think Aceves or Wake would take Lackey's slot if they give him a leave. I don't think Doubront is ready.

    What think?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I want the team to succeed, period. If that means certain parts shouldn't be here, should be traded, retire, in different roles, I will say so. Anticipation is part of management, not locking in on the present. Frankly, there is no excuse for this team being under .500, other than some mistakes made during the off season. AGon was the key off season move, and it's a shame that 142M was locked into Crawford because it has a wake on future moves. Crawford will likely end up around his career averages, but that doesn't cut it for either value or fit for this year.

    I'm not on here to be a cheerleader, though you will note that I made it clear that this weekend series looked good for the Red Sox winning at least 2 out of 3.

    Drew is one of the best defensive RF'er's the Red Sox have ever had. That goes unnoticed on this board, and in most fan circles. He's aging out, was overpaid, but at least he is a complete baseball player skillset. He's also has a no nonsense approach to the game, placing it in it's proper perspective. 

    Name the last player from Georgia that was popular in bigottown? 

    I remember the abuse Rice took. 

    I look at both sides of the ball, leadership, fit and price. That's why I don't become cheerleaders for the typical favorite biastown players. That's the reason why I'm not popular, though the "haters" will claim otherwise;) 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    MJ, Do you have anything good to say about OUR team or the players you dislike?

    Amp, let's ignore the big basher on this thread anyway, at least for a while. Maybe the thread can return to reality and not a cesspool of pessimism. 

    Personally, I'm not a big fan of a few of the players(Drew, for one), but it is what it is. 

    I agree, and for some reason it amazes me that JD has the same agent as Jake, misses days for vertigo and hang nails, but escapes the bashing  and "good ole boy" label. Besides, the big basher thinks Drew plays LF. What does that tell you?

    I might not like him, but I still hope he does well.  Don't you feel that way about Ellsbury, Lowrie,....and the host of others you don't like?  Don't you want them to succeed?

    We all know the answer to this question.

    In essence, unfortunately, you're beginning to sound like a person who wants OUR players to fail in order to prove your point.  I think I've sat in many more dugouts than you have and this behavior is totally opposite of a good teammate.

    ...and I'm sure all the Sox players love Wake, Jake, Jed, Dice, Oki, JD and on and on...

    I really wish you'd re-evaluate the negativity.

    Not gahn dah.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Notice the play Gardner just made on Crawford. Few will admit that Gardner is a more complete baseball player than Ellsbury. I don't have any agenda against Yankee players, though I disdain the town and the modern history of the team.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]jidgef, I could not agree more about what a joy A-Gon is to watch hit and he plays his position quite well too. I honestly felt we never did replace Manny as an offensive player, until now. I agree there is little reason to move Crawford just yet, aside from it just sounds insane to have a guy making that much hitting that far down in the line-up. Albers has been a pleasant surprise and it appears that both Jenks and Wheeler really did have physical issues so over the long haul the BP may well round out to be as good as the 2009 pen was in terms of depth and quality. There's no denying that Tek and Beckett got it going on or that Buch and Tek don't. In the long run Beckett and Dice seem to be the best pair for Tek to catch. And it was nice to see Tek have a big hit last night. Lester seems to be comfortable whoever the catcher is and Lackey has had good and bad games with Salty. No matter how relevant the catcher is, Lackey's issues appear to run deeper. He will correct them IMO. Ellsbury and Lowrie for all the back and forth are doing what the FO thought they would, what their amateur and minor league careers suggested they could do and it has been a ray of light in these few weeks were others have struggled. When Pedey and Youk lock in, watch out. And at some point Ortiz is going to get a long ball stroke going too. As ugly as the 2-10 streak was at some point this team will have a 10-2 streak and what is in between those top of the world - bottom of the barrel streaks will define the season IMO.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Katz: Would you mind explaining the highlighted.

    Buch w/Salty:  4.33 ERA 27 IP
    Buch with TEK: 3.38 ERA 18.6 IP

    Despite the SS, how can you draw such a conclusion?


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Welcome back Jid: A few thoughts for you:

    The team started out 0-6. R U saying that Salty should be excused from that?
    I don't know the extent of his part was in that, but don't you think it was more than coincidental that when Tito started using Tek, the pitching "suddenly" came together, got hot, and allowed the team to recover as best they could.
    Keep in mind, Salty out-hit Tek during that period.

    Is Tek catching a "hot Beckett"? Or does this enter into the equation:
    Beckett w/Tek: 68-27
    Beckett w/o Tek: 11-15.

    This includes the post-season, where he's 5-0 with Tek. 0-1 w/o him.

    Dice has a 2.90 ERA with Tek so far. 4.11 overall. Is he "hot" also?

    If memory serves, wasn't this the way this staff was perceived going into this year:
    Lester
    Buch
    Lackey
    Beckett
    Dice

    Kinda funny that Josh & Dice have the best numbers.
    Your take on Lackey is pertinent. His 8 ERA inflates the numbers w/Salty. But Tek hasn't caught him. Would his numbers differ? Who knows. Lackey has other issues. Maybe he needs special handling given his situation. Who's more capable of dealing with it? A vet like Tek? Or Salty?

    My point is, let's see this in it's entirety.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    thanks, moon. Forgot Aceves was meant to start.  Of course, Wakes can start too, but as an innings-eater, he is more valuable in games beyond reach (for either side).

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I think id Wake is given the ball every 5th day and knows it is his role, he can put this team in a position to win in over 66% of the games.  That is morethan can be expected from a 6th starter. At this point, I like Aceves a little better, but I don't think Wake should only be used in mop up games. I'd bring him in to start middle innings in close games as well. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Even with the team just now getting to .500 I'm seeing the things I was most concerned about going into the season looking better than I would have dreamed.
    The return in force of Beckett is absolutely huge, and I'm starting to think the whole "problem" has been Beckett is a bit like Larry Bird and will tell you he's alright right when he clearly isn't.
    He's apparently right now; his velocity and command are way up, and he's not just winning, he's dominating.
    The even bigger concern I had was Papelbon who was dead and burried in my eyes. Very impressive tonight. After starting the 9th with two balls he turned it around, and pumped strikes.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Would someone please post Buch's ERA with VMart, even though it's as meaningless as the other CERA nonsense.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Would someone please post Buch's ERA with VMart, even though it's as meaningless as the other CERA nonsense.
    Posted by majorleague[/QUOTE]
    Varitek caught Buccholz' no-no. What a useless catcher he is. Idiot.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I said that this team would have no problem on offense. I said that the key was getting a 3rd starting pitcher with Lester and Buch, performing at a solid level all season without a long DL. With Beckett showing up for work, this year, Lester and Buch are simply doing what they have been doing. As I've said before, the key is to put the best defense behind the starting pitching, which is the key to the season. As I've said, now that the 3 starters are going well, if healthy, the Red Sox will blow by the Yankees and Rays and win the division. 

    No, that doesn't mean Crawford gets an excuse for 1 for 12 this weekend, or his terrible defense and season to date hitting. Tito should forget the 142M and use Cameron more, for all 3 OF'ers. Cameron, ever at near 40, with Drew, are the best defensive OF'ers on  the team. 

    The focus is always on offense, and not where it needs to be for this team. Iglesias would improve the team defense at SS, and using Cameron more would also improve the team defense in the OF. Youk is getting comfortable at 3B, so being weak at catcher, SS and CF is not exactly the everyday defense needed on the field. Adjustments should be made, but likely will not be. 

    With 3 strong starting pitchers, this team has the parts to win the division. But, that's still not a valid reason not to improve the defense by changing playing time and defining player roles.   
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    What's with the name-calling?

    I feel as if I crashed a middle-school sleep-over.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Lackey is not a California dude, he is very much a Texan. His wife is from New England and he wanted to play here because of that. He may well have under estimated the media and the market but his problems are probably deeper than that. At this point I read they are working on chganging his mechanics back to his 2007 form, which was his best season and probably what earned him this contract.

    Harness, ERA aside did you watch the last start Buch had with Tek? Forget the ERA, the chemistry between those two is not good. While the ball did not leave the park, Buch gave up hits in bunches in that outing. He wasn't fooling anyone.

    On the reverse side the chemistry between Buch and Salty does look good and he went out of his way to praise Salty, go figure. And as a fan of CERA you must be aware that the career numbers for the Buch-Tek tandem stinks. Buch's career turned around with VMart catching him after a trip to minors.

    This whole thing with CERA can be quite misleading IMO and you will have some converts on BDC but it is flawed. Take tonight as an example. It had nothing to do with the pitch calling, if Lester hit the target with the two cutters he hung he gives up 3 fewer runs. Those two HRs were command issues, not the catcher. If Tek caught him next time and hits the same target, Tek's numbers are better than Salty's. But there will never any conversion of either of our view points...

    I suppose it will turn around at some point but Crawford is not playing well still and his May BA is only refreshing when looking at his April. But worse yet his play in LF has been less than spectacular. One can only hope that it will all improve.

    How about a broken bat HR by Ortiz? Testament to his power and the short porch.

    Josh and Dice have the best numbers? Which ones? I know Beckett has had a fine season so far but Lester has more W, more SO, a better ERA and a better WHIP than DiceK. Buch also has a better ERA than Dice K. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Lackey is not a California dude, he is very much a Texan. His wife is from New England and he wanted to play here because of that. He may well have under estimated the media and the market but his problems are probably deeper than that. At this point I read they are working on chganging his mechanics back to his 2007 form, which was his best season and probably what earned him this contract. Harness, ERA aside did you watch the last start Buch had with Tek? Forget the ERA, the chemistry between those two is not good. While the ball did not leave the park, Buch gave up hits in bunches in that outing. He wasn't fooling anyone. On the reverse side the chemistry between Buch and Salty does look good and he went out of his way to praise Salty, go figure. And as a fan of CERA you must be aware that the career numbers for the Buch-Tek tandem stinks. Buch's career turned around with VMart catching him after a trip to minors. This whole thing with CERA can be quite misleading IMO and you will have some converts on BDC but it is flawed. Take tonight as an example. It had nothing to do with the pitch calling, if Lester hit the target with the two cutters he hung he gives up 3 fewer runs. Those two HRs were command issues, not the catcher. If Tek caught him next time and hits the same target, Tek's numbers are better than Salty's. But there will never any conversion of either of our view points... I suppose it will turn around at some point but Crawford is not playing well still and his May BA is only refreshing when looking at his April. But worse yet his play in LF has been less than spectacular. One can only hope that it will all improve. How about a broken bat HR by Ortiz? Testament to his power and the short porch. Josh and Dice have the best numbers? Which ones? I know Beckett has had a fine season so far but Lester has more W, more SO, a better ERA and a better WHIP than DiceK. Buch also has a better ERA than Dice K. 
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Let me get this straight: You judge Tek with Buch on one game.
    Buch didn't fare well, so Tek is responsible. Despite his pitches being up.
    Then, in another game, Buch keeps his pitches down and you credit Salty.

    The reason you feel CERA-related issues is "mis-leading" is because of how you are measuring it. You can not measure this game to game.
    The reason is because pitching form varies. It's measured over time, as the tendency is that things will eventually equal out over time given a credible amount of IP with each receiver.

    Perception isn't always reality. What you perceive as poor chemistry may in fact be anything but.

    As for "Career numbers with the Buch/Tek tandem stinks" - was Buchholz the same pitcher in 2010-11 as he was when he had maturity issues? Honest answer please.


    Where you blow it completely is:
    Buch's career turned around with VMART catching him after a trip to the minors. This statement indicates you acknowledge a catcher's relevance.
    In this case, w/VMART. Problem is, Buch grew up! He put on weight and threw 2-3 miles per hour faster. He had a grand total of 4 IP with Tek last year (2.25 ERA)

    As for his "trip to the minors" in 2009: His numbers with VMART upon his return:
    4.34 ERA over 76 IP. 1.319 WHIP

    He was actually better with others, but the frame of reference is poor.
    Fact is, there is no credible frame of reference with Buch in any single season. Using the cumulative is flawed. And with him, it's heavily flawed because he is matured and stronger now than when he was when Tek was catching him.

    My comment about the "perceived" 4th/5th pitchers doing better than anyone else correspond to their numbers I quoted with Tek.

    Beckett: 1.75 ERA  .896 WHIP
    Dice-K:  2.90 ERA  1.065 WHIP [.495 OPP OPS  .171 OPP BA  .195 BABIP]
    Lester:  3.28 ERA  1.215 WHIP [Over-all]
    Buchholz: 3.94 ERA  1.373 WHIP [over-all]

    Notice: These numbers are not game to game. They are this season's numbers and are up to date.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Does anyone on here actually feel bad for Salty?  He seems like a hard worker and stand-up guy.  I think he's slowly catching on.  He is now proving that he can handle calling a game.  His defensive abilities are still a work in progress but I think he's still better than what we had last year.  His hitting is still a concern but he is showing signs of turning things around.  I'm not ready to give up on the guy yet even though I think that he will be out of town if he doesn't continue to improve.  Hey, the HR tonight certainly helps.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    What I saw the last two games he caught was a player who was playing his azz off.  He made several good blocks, and of course the home-run.  I saw a player who was 1st out of the dugout many a times..... a hustler.

    That is what I saw.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Salty hasn't proven anything. Not with his bat. Not with the pitchers. He has started 29 games in his RedSox career.

    Yes, I feel for him. He should have been in a tandem from the first day of the season. I also feel bad for Crawford in April. Just as I did for Pedey early in 2007.
    Of course he's trying hard. His off-season curriculum was one of total dedication.
    You can say the same thing about Youk and Pedey and...

    He looks to be a great teammate and his dinger tonight was important. He's an open book right now. Not a bad thing considering his learning process.

    Tremendous patience is required when looking at the many intangibles involved in his position.
     
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