A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

      Katz, my sentiments entirely! I occasionally engaged Softy in discussions and thoroughly enjoyed it. But he has become so fixated on his contrarian status and so relentless in his bashing of certain players, posters and ideas that I now find him tiresome. As for starting a new thread to escape him or not, that seems pointless. He can always sign on to it as well with whatever new name he chooses. Personally, if I were ever banned from anything I would never return, which is why I was never a Boy Scout and my sons weren't either after a fight at my first ever Cub Scout pack meeting in about 1955!Wink

      Harns, you may not realize this but I agree with your CERA position and have posted many times on here that Tek will go down in Boston baseball lore as one of the top two or three catchers in Red Sox history. Unfortunately for them, both VMart and Salty have been brought in to replace the legend, and both have come up short in comparison to the master. I am speaking specifically about defense and game-calling, especially in the eyes of the pitchers they have to catch. My point about Salty's 0-6 start was not to exonerate him for it but to point out how much better he's doing lately. I was bringing Lackey into the discussion, again not to dismiss any blame to Salty but to point out how, especially this early in the season, that a few terrible starts can really skew overall numbers. I completely disagree with the few posters who are saying that Salty does not receive the ball well nor does he block balls well; I think he's doing reasonably well and getting better daily! As for his arm, it is an average catcher's arm on a team that does not utilize the slide step to slow down the running game. This is and has been an organizational decision, and posters who continuously blame the catchers for stolen bases just don't understand the position. I happen to agree with the organizational philosophy in that the most important focus for the pitcher is the batter, not the runner. I also view catcher as a defensive first position, so any offense is a bonus. It was never uncommon in the pre-steroid era for catchers to bat eighth (pre DH as well), hit .215 with a little pop, and catch about seven out of every ten games.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    There is NO Lowrie fixation!

    It's just hysterical to see this ape cling (as if he would to the wreckage of a ship) to the notion that Lowrie is more or less a poor hitter...  :)  Most guys just LOVE stickin it up his @ZZ because he is CLEARLY SO WRONG!!!!  I actually feel bad for the guy!  He talks about others having purely emotional opinions, as opposed to his "logical & statistically" based opinions.......  It's an absolute riot, & the delicious IRONY unfortunately eludes poor majorleague, GM, et. al .....
    He becomes so wedded to his particular thesis that he will go to the ends of the earth trying to "prove" he was right, no matter what everyone else CLEARLY sees.....  EVERYONE!!!!  EVERY novice Red Sox fan, KNOWS that Lowrie IS NOT A GREAT defensive SS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Majorleague constantly conflates an issue, piecing together his amalgamated naive Red Sox fan, whom he must set straight with his dispassionate analytical Swiss Cheese mind....  He actually believes that he is telling us something we don't know.  As for Lowrie's hitting??  He simply CAN'T EVER admit when he is SO OBVIOUSLY wrong!!    It's sort of sad!  It takes a very insecure person to not be able to come to grips with being WRONG!!!!
    ADD ELS. to the equation, & majorleague / GM / ????  just can't get his mind on anything else!

    Majorleague,

    I challenge you to forget about this exercise in futility......  Forget about your thesis on Els. & Lowrie for a week!  No wait a minute......   Cancel that!!!!!!!
    Keep it up big guy!!!!   Yikes!  That's how superstitious I am with the Sox!  The minute this guy starts praising their obvious achievements, they go south.......

    Keep up the good work majorleague!!!   :)  :)
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    A lot of ranting and hold down the exlaimation point key. You might want to seek help for anger management. It's alright that you have a childlike fixation on Bellsbury and Lowrie, but busting your pipe dream should not lead to angry rants of drivel. Nothing "is killing me", but it's clearly killing you that your years of pipe dreaming has been busted. 

    1. Ellsbury is not "destined to be a superstar", and, like Lowrie, is poor in CF
    2. Ellsbury has a lower career OBP than Gardner
    3. Lowrie has never, ever played a full everday MLB season
    4. Lowrie's career BA is .264 with 16 HR in 706 PA
    5. Lowrie's numbers will continue to fall, even steeper if he isn't given the frequent tired and sick days off and will end up the year, if he plays at somewhere close to at least 140 games, close to his career averages

    Coming from someone who talks about extending Bellsbury and claims he's "destined to be a superstar", it's obvious why the need to engage in grandiose delusional claims.

    The clinging defense of these two teenage idols is a cross section of the emotional bent wheel that drives most Red Sox fans. Although Crawford's contract is a disaster ball and chain, there is no chance he'll ever be as popular as Bellsbury. However, he's a far more talented and capable baseball player, despite his embarrassing start and 1 for 12 against the Yankees. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Jidgef,

    Good thoughhts on how much offense catchers usually provide. OTOH when a catcher does give you plus offense for the position it certainly makes the team better and allows great margin to absorb the various slumps that come in the course of the season beause there is one more potent bat in the line-up.

    Teams with strong offensive catchers tend to win a lot of games when the team has a decent roster around them, whether they are the subject of critique for the play behind the plate like Posada, Javier Lopez, Piazza or VMart. Tek at his peak was that nice balance similar to, though only the most ardent Tekies would say as good as I-Rod. Heck the Dodgers and NYY dominated the 50's because they had great two way catchers (Yogi and Campy).

    You are right that much of the RS issues with the stolen base is on the pitchers. Most bases are stolen on pitchers. But Tek, Victor and now Salty aren't strong throwing catchers and that does embolden the opponent even further. The great alarm for me was the fact that there was one game where Salty's throwing back to the pitcher looked like it might re-emerge and how he would handle the obvious feeding frenzy that would focus on him in the face of the RS start. After all winning is a wonderful mouthwash and losing a magnet for arrows to be flung at the weakest of the weak.

    While a team can get by with a light hitting catcher, the current .196 BA does not cut it and is magnified if and when other hitters slump. At Tek's age it is fair to question how much he can improve off of his start but it isn't impossible. Salty certainly can hit better and IMO the guy seems to be handling his business with calm and focus so there is hope.

    Frankly the catchers are over analyzed on the forum. OTOH it was the greatest known weakness coming into the year and it has so far proven to be a weakness. The unsuspected weaknesses like $20M #8 hitter's start and Lackey's personal challenges so adversely splashing on to the field served to magnify it. Over the course of 162 hopefully it will play out as Epstein hoped it would this winter.





     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Ellsbury may not be destined to be a superstar, but he's having a very solid season offensively, especially after missing last year, with an OPS of 812 and an OPS+ of 122.

    Brett Gardner is a very good player as well.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    FanGraphs is held in low regard by many on this forum, but ...

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-power-rankings-51611/
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    That a boy majorleague, GM, etc.   >  Keep it comin  :)  :)
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Great posts katz.

    Keeping this thread softy free was a great start, but sadly he changed his name and went back on his word. No surprises there.

    Avoiding his tired and stale posts here on this thread may eventually steer him to his own created tired and stale threads.

    There's always hope.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]18-9 in his starts last year, 10-6 this year And that's not a large enough sample sizefor 162 game baseball seasons. The wet baby blanket and his magic fingers needs to go or take Wakefield's sqaut spot.
    Posted by majorleague[/QUOTE]
     

    How about .600 ball over 12 years- since Tek became a FT catcher.
    How about .505 ball when he doesn't catch?

    You post shallow bias about an area that clearly exposes UR ignorance.

    This is further exemplified by UR admission that your opinion on "Bellsbury"
    is based on his defense. His offense has nothing to do with his "D", so why is it you never, ever credit him for his offensive production?

    Your bias tells all.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Just ignore the clown who continually blasts Sox players for one AB, one game, and2 games, but when someone else shows a 14 or 28 or 365 day trend, it's labelled "short sample" and we are directed to career numbers only.

    Let's let the absurdity ride solo for a bit.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Babe-Ted. Show Babe-Ted's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Why not just put Softy and his alias's on ignore? It seems to me that many of you pretend to want Softy gone but you really want him here? Why argue and debate with someone whom you all agree 100% with is a phony and yet you never put him onto ignore status? Could it be that you are part of the charade?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    As much as you might try to ignore a pesky gnat, sometimes it goes up your nose.

    I hate when that happens.

    (Point well taken Babe-red)
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Jid: I know where you stand and I think UR take on Salty is admirable.
    Your points are well measured. This is the third season the RedSox have been going through the growing pains of a catcher transition. The reason I spend so much time on it is because it is critical  to the team's success. Otherswho don't acknowledge the catcher-pitcher link will view this differently. That's fine. I know where they are coming from. Fact is, I'd be furious to see VMART leave in favor of CC if I limited him to his bat. But some pretty extensive research says otherwise.

    My present area of concern is the BP inconsistency. It affects how Tito manages his pitchers. This goes beyond the poor efforts from Jenks/Wheeler.

    Last year, there was an alarming 1.65+ run disparity with the BP with/without VMART. It's again becoming a problem, as the BP numbers with Salty are poor.

    It's too early to draw any conclusions, as the SS are limited. But the numbers with the two key components - Bard/Paps - are revealing:

    Bard/Paps with Salty: 17 IP  10 ER  5.29 ERA
    Bard/Paps w/Tek:  20.6 IP  2 ER  0.88 ERA

    Here are the overall numbers with the BP's main arms: 
    With Salty: 52 IP    30 ER  5.19 ERA
    With TEK:  45 IP  16 ER  3.20 ERA

    Obviously, one blow up can alter the numbers this early in the season.
    For example, the BP's numbers with Tek without the Wheeler blow-up is:
    42.3 IP  9 ER  1.91 ERA
    [These numbers do not include tonight's game vs.the O's].

    The perception last year was that the pen was mighty thin beyond Paps/Bard. The truth was: they were decent to good when they weren't compromised. The BP ERA with Tek/Cash was 2.92. But it was 4.65 with VMART.

    Tito can mask Salty with Buch/Lester, as they are good enough to win their majority of games even if they are compromised. But the mask drops once the starters leave the game. If Salty is indeed improving, hopefully this trend will reverse.

    But, IMO, it's a huge reason why this team is struggling at .500.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    What a huge win for the Sox tonight!

    It seemed almost everyone had a hand in the comeback.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It seems like just a week ago many posters were saying the Yankee lead was too much to overcome with120 games left to play.

    Next year (or later this year), the same fans will do it agan.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The spirit of this team is clearly emerging. Great comeback!!!
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Nice. They are battling back and winning the close ones and the walk-offs.  Good to see.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    We're getting into that "feel good" zone where we not only do what we have to do to win, but our opponents are doing what they need to do to lose. This was a family affair tonight as my daughters are in town and none of us ever really had any doubts but that the Sox were going to pull this out tonight. Without the wind blowing in we could have won going away! Love that AGON!!
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Lot's of thoughts:

    Very entertaining game tonight. Not a banner night for the pitching staff but Aceves aside from the long ball to Reynolds was solid.

    Good nights again from the hated Pac-10 twins (4-9, 3 runs, 1 RBI and a big 9th inning steal), Tek was productive at the plate tonight. It was encouraging to see him actual put decent wood on high fastballs because he never has been able to lay off that pitch and for much of the year just like Kit Keller he could not hit them either.  

    Pedey seems to be starting to come around and his outs were hit on the screws. Youk still is chasing more breaking pitches than I can ever remember but he is looking better and was huge.

    And once again A-Gon shows just why Theo who is so in love with his own prospects let three of the most cherished go and spent $154M of the RS money on him.

    On the positive side also was the fact that Tito was able to stay away from much of the bullpen which isn't always the case when the score gets away early like it did tonight.

    I think the day's play and news proves both sides of the Wakefield debate. Aceves probably is the better middle reliever and keeping both was wise. With lackey going on the 15 day and 20 games in a row without a day off it is apparent that Wake will have started 4 games before June.

    On the minus side Carl Crawford looks lousy IMO and I don't care what his May BA is, crummy ABs with the worst always seeming to come with runners on and very uninspired defensive play. I want to get it and figured once he was signed that Theo Epstein has forgotten more about baseball than I will ever know. And no doubt Theo does know way more but I just don't get the Crawford signing from where in this line-up he will fit when he gets going to the staggering size of the commitment.

    Last thought, I like Lowrie hitting between Drew and Crawford versus RH. Ortiz, Drew and Crawford tend to bait managers into going to a LH and my goodness that kid can rake from the right side.

    The kind of win coming off of a sweep in the House that the Taxpayers Built that may be remembered as a key point in the season but regardless was entertaining as all get out.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Just imagine if Lackey and Dice go on the DL at once, Wake is surely a btter bet than anyone other than Aceves.

    You are right about Aceves fitting the middle relief role so well.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Really the past 4 games have been outstanding entertainment. Every game was fun. It felt like October for every one of those Yankees games, and always does whenever we play them and win!

    Especially in Yankee Stadium!

    Especially against Sabathia!

    Basically we are hitting at least some with RISP. And the Yanks are feeling the pressure we felt earlier in the year.

    Is it me or are the Yanks the biggest cry babies in the league when it comes to ball and strike calls, led by cry baby in chief Girardi. The Sox hitters didn't get a lot of calls either, the whole series.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    We are still 12th in the AL in pitching. We still are overcoming a horrendous start to this year in terms of pitching. We are 4th in hitting though and rapidly going up IMO. If we eliminate the Lackey starts with something reasonable our starter ERA will look much better. As predicted last week, the best way to handle that was to put Lackey on the DL before throwing him out there again to get hammered with that stuff.

    It was great to get a win out of a game Matsuzaka started. He sure made it difficult but they got it done.

    One great thing about Wakefield, IMO, is that he is still capable of giving us still about 50% or more of quality starts. He will get shelled some games but quite often he still can get us some wins. If we can win 50% of our games from the 5th starter I think that is great!

    Ellsbury's OBP is up to .358 and it is on the way up still. As predicted in spring training, he is having a solid year. Leading the league in SB. Only one double behind Gonzalez ( 5th in the league in doubles ). 7th in the league in runs scored. Hitting around .300 and still producing consistently. Showing his durability. 

    So far this year, even on an excellent hitting team 2nd in the league in OBP percentage, we are projected to get 56 RBI's and 40 runs scored total this year from the catching position and a .200 BA. We are last in the league in SB allowed and it's climbing fast when guys like Russell Martin and the entire Baltimore team seemingly running on us. And imagine what it's going to be like with Wakefield getting more innings. I'm sorry, but this is still the area of greatest potential improvement and I really think they are huddling on this issue right now.

    I noticed tonight that Mark Wagner is back with the organization. I'm not saying he is going to have an impact but he is back in the mix. Here is my bottom line. I like what Tek has been doing lately by at least working his AB. At least he is seeing some pitches and helping to wear the opposing staff down. Salty though needs to go back to AAA to try to improve his swing. We'd probably be better off with McKenry at this point until a better solution becomes available. They probably don't want to crush his confidence though so we may be in this situation until the July trading deadline. McKenry was added at the end of ST if I remember correctly so he's had virtually no time with the staff. We probably are going to have to bring in a veteran.  
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Imagine if we still had VMart though and his .330 hitting bat with 23 RBIs. And if we didn't sign Crawford that could easily have been facilitated, at less than 1/2 the cost per year, and a shorter term deal. We'd be in first place right now.

    Bryce Brentz is just demolishing the SAL. Hitting .388 with 10 HR. 26 game hitting streak. Triple crown numbers so far and almost leading the league in triples also!

    We all are worried about who is going to play RF next year but the year after looks pretty secure with the numbers some of these guys are putting up. Hazelbaker, Hassan, Reddick...etc. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Yankees are 3-10 in their last 13... I predicted (prayed) they would at some point go 5-15 during the season - which would totally allow for the Red Sox to make up all the ground they had lost and then some.  I made this prediction two weeks ago.

    Now the way they are playing there is a huge chance they may only go 2-5 over their next 7, thus ending up 5-15!

    BurritoT's prophecy may just be for real!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tek has worked pitcher counts his whole career. Did you just notice this?

    VMART 2011 offensive breakdown:
    .172 BA as catcher. .484 OPS
    .397 BA as DH        1.130 OPS

    Oh yeah. We sure miss him as catcher.
     

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