A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : Perhaps the decrease in velocity is intentional? Or, said another way, he is transforming from a 'thrower' to a pitcher?
    Posted by ampoule


    I've seen him hit 98 on the gun a few times this year. Also, he generally has finished faster at the end of each year as he builds arm strength. He's pitching well. I'm not worried about it at all.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Thoughts on Salty?  Cautious optimism? Continued pessimism?

    I, for one, find myself waiting with fingers crossed hoping that he will continue to slowly improve both at and behind the plate.  If we can get a little more out of him as the season develops, I will be happy enough.  Especially if he starts to show some occasional "pop."  The season is young enough (and he is too) to find some room for hope, IMO.  Of course, it would help if Tek showed a little more at the plate too.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    One bright side if your are Epstein about not have Victor on the roster is it is saving him the embarssment of having a $142M #9 hitter.

    Seriously though for all of us second guessers, if the RS really weren't ever serious about signing Victor Martinez at any figure and really did float a $42M offer to pander to the fans, they probably blew it not engaging Ramon Hernandez in conversation after he was non-tendered.

    Most folks in the industry believe that Ramon is on a par with Tek in terms of his work with pitchers, he is 36 years old and would have been a back-up to Salty that would have been a more realistic player to step up and catch a heavy load in the case of injury or poor play by Salty. Hernandez signed on 11-15 for $3M for 1 year after having his team option for $3.25M declined. I am pretty sure $4M for 1 year would have made Ramon a RS. In 92 PAs he has a 1.026 OPS and 6 HR (5 more than our catchers combined). Now I don't think he will be at 1.026 at the end of the year but chances are good he will be north of .700.

    This is about as relevant at this point as VMart, neither is here. I am more concerned about Carl Crawford and waiting for JD Drew to not look like it is his last lap. Because with Lackey and Dice K both down for awhile the offense needs to be highly efficient. I know Lackey and Dice K weren't going great but neither were the RS. If the projections from the spring are to hold true, if the pitching is not as strong as projected the offense better be or the early hole the team dug will be harder to nullify. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Thoughts on Salty?  Cautious optimism? Continued pessimism? I, for one, find myself waiting with fingers crossed hoping that he will continue to slowly improve both at and behind the plate.  If we can get a little more out of him as the season develops, I will be happy enough.  Especially if he starts to show some occasional "pop."  The season is young enough (and he is too) to find some room for hope, IMO.  Of course, it would help if Tek showed a little more at the plate too.
    Posted by 111SoxFan111
    Assuming the dreaded "can't make the throw back to the catcher" doesn't reappear I think he will be a league average hitter at the plate and a guy with a big "5 hole" and erratic dealing with runners behind it. Given the RS staff's ability to hold runners the later is not that big a deal, Johnny Bench isn't putting up a 30% CS with this staff and Wake now being injected seals that deal. The "5 hole" is troublesome when there are runners on and the pitcher's out pitch is a splitter or a big curve however and will at least a couple times this year bring the fury of the WEEI callers.

    On the plus side, the kid doesn't have rabbit ears because he just keeps plugging away at it in spite of being the center of speculation. Personally I think he can easily be a .250/.310/.700 hitter once he settles in. And the RS will need to figure out the rest. This is a veteran staff after all.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    One thing which we should point out in the VMart discussion is the value of 2 top picks in this year's draft, which is reported to be deeper than any draft in the past 10 years. Theo was on a mission to maximize draft picks this year, as several other teams were as well ( like Tampa ). We don't know just how talented the prospects are yet. We do not know who Theo has in mind drafting. He might just have calculated the risks involved in going with Salty, thinking that his offense would be so strong with Adrian and such that the team could carry Salty offensively if he never hit well. That's what I think happened. I think Victor was clearly a better catching solution but Theo was hot for those 2 picks and he was thinking long term. And just maybe Salty would work out.

    Generally I'm a huge fan of Theo. I just want to maximize the team's chance of winning this year as well. I'd sign Bengie right now and get him ready. At the minimum if someone gets hurt we will need him. I'm not saying go crazy here but a 1-2 year deal for Bengie at $3-4 mil should get it done. He originally wanted $6 mil but Martin has helped set the market now. I understand the luxury tax issue but it's going to hit us anyway probably.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from playball01. Show playball01's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Seriously though for all of us second guessers, if the RS really weren't ever serious about signing Victor Martinez at any figure and really did float a $42M offer to pander to the fans, they probably blew it not engaging Ramon Hernandez in conversation after he was non-tendered.

    While I definitely see the point I really believe that the Salty/Tek tandem or Salty/cheap backup profile was pretty much the plan all along. What I simply can't understand is where the high affinity for Salty, by management, came from. I can't find any indication from his recent past that suggests that the player would become a breakout catcher and be capable of assuming the Number 1 catcher slot in 2011.

    The affinity level may very well support Harness' claim that Theo and Company don't place much stock in the catcher position. Salty as the starting catcher still baffles me and I can only hope that the powers to be know something that both Atlanta and Texas didn't. I can't possibly imagine what it could be.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    What I simply can't understand is where the high affinity for Salty, by management, came from. I can't find any indication from his recent past that suggests that the player would become a breakout catcher and be capable of assuming the Number 1 catcher slot in 2011

    You are right about recent past but the answer is simple. 

    MiLB                        Games       OPS           From

    Salty                          469       .823        HS
    Joe Mauer                  290      .833         HS
    Brian McCann            308      .799
              HS
    Alex Avila                  151      .796       
    College
    Russell Martin            392      .810         HS
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Seriously though for all of us second guessers, if the RS really weren't ever serious about signing Victor Martinez at any figure and really did float a $42M offer to pander to the fans, they probably blew it not engaging Ramon Hernandez in conversation after he was non-tendered. While I definitely see the point I really believe that the Salty/Tek tandem or Salty/cheap backup profile was pretty much the plan all along. What I simply can't understand is where the high affinity for Salty, by management, came from. I can't find any indication from his recent past that suggests that the player would become a breakout catcher and be capable of assuming the Number 1 catcher slot in 2011. The affinity level may very well support Harness' claim that Theo and Company don't place much stock in the catcher position. Salty as the starting catcher still baffles me and I can only hope that the powers to be know something that both Atlanta and Texas didn't. I can't possibly imagine what it could be.
    Posted by playball01
    First off it should be said that Atlanta felt they spent a ton to get Mark Texiera and so did the rest of baseball. Tom-UK's post documents why. So this idea that two organizations played it out with salty and moved on is misleading. The Braves gave up one of their best prospects to get an elite 1B.

    Now as far as why the obsession with Salty, he plays a position where players often mature later than others. In a sport with limited supply at the position at this time and an organization without any clear can't miss prospects in the system the player was of interest to them.

    And yes, the RS think they can hide the offense from a catcher in this line-up and if the 7-8 spots produce as they can, the RS can hide the offense and on occasion they will get that big knock from the catchers like they did last night.

    But if the RS really did not value the catchers position, why haven't they walk away from Varitek long ago. He is not a low budget back-up. When the RS offered him arbitration after 2008 they fully expected he would accept it and a $10M award (probably the single dumbest thing Boras has ever done with a client). And they went ahead and resigned Tek for 2 years and brought him back again this year.

    The tandem reflects just how thin the market is. Now if the question is do the RS value the CERA from a catcher more than the OPS that Adrian Gonzalez can produce that's a different kettle of fish. 

    They probably don't believe that a catcher makes a 1.5 run per game difference in the pitchers performance, which is an astounding 243 runs over 162.


     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    RS Management clearly had their eye on A-Gon being the heir apparent first baseman and Theo

    There was a poster who thought AGon would be selling tickets in San Diego. BTW, what is Crawford's OBP with the Red Sox?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from majorleague. Show majorleague's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Recent history, however, dictates he should be the starter and Scutaro the utility guy / part time starter.  If Jed's v.RHP #'s dip (or perhaps if they fail to improve along with his fielding) then a platoon is in order.  Instead of rational discussion, though, you choose to defend your opinions and predictions using spurious stats and "meaningless jocular phrases." 

    There is no substance to this comment or the meaningless phrases. It is, de facto, not rantional. 

     I imagine if you said a fire truck was orange, you would stand in the street pointing at it yelling "orange!" until it actually ran you over.

    You imagine wrong. I am certain that if you said "he's a great hitter", and "he" had career metrics that were simply commercial, you would continue to keep using the word "great" to describe "him".

    I've already given the details on Lowrie, and his SS defense is too poor to even broach a number on his year ending hitting metrics (which will end up around his career averages and not where he is now if he keeps playing everday). He will not satifsfy me as long as he's an everyday SS because he doesn't cut it on what the defensive requirements are for the position. If his splits v. RHP were closer to his current v. LHP splits, even that would not cut it and suffice in the face of his butchery as an everday defensive SS. The belly flop on the routine DP ball was the final straw if there was ever any doubt. He needs to be trying to play everday at 2nd base somwhere, but not here.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from canetime. Show canetime's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Recent history , however, dictates he should be the starter and Scutaro the utility guy / part time starter.  If Jed's v.RHP #'s dip (or perhaps if they fail to improve along with his fielding) then a platoon is in order.  Instead of rational discussion, though, you choose to defend your opinions and predictions using spurious stats and " meaningless jocular phrases."  There is no substance to this comment or the meaningless phrases. It is, de facto, not rantional.   I imagine if you said a fire truck was orange, you would stand in the street pointing at it yelling "orange!" until it actually ran you over. You imagine wrong. I am certain that if you said "he's a great hitter", and "he" had career metrics that were simply commercial, you would continue to keep using the word "great" to describe "him". I've already given the details on Lowrie, and his SS defense is too poor to even broach a number on his year ending hitting metrics (which will end up around his career averages and not where he is now if he keeps playing everday). He will not satifsfy me as long as he's an everyday SS because he doesn't cut it on what the defensive requirements are for the position. If his splits v. RHP were closer to his current v. LHP splits, even that would not cut it and suffice in the face of his butchery as an everday defensive SS. The belly flop on the routine DP ball was the final straw if there was ever any doubt. He needs to be trying to play everday at 2nd base somwhere, but not here.
    Posted by majorleague

    as always the troll !
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Softy you wear me out with your constant rants against Els and Jed, and you never tire of it and you can't even enjoy both players being off to very solid starts to the season, sad.
    And Boom you're starting to sound just like Softy on the Salty subject. VMart is gone, get over it. He was a lousy catcher and we already had a DH, which is really his only position. Salty is learning on the fly and seems to have the support of the whole team and its management. When a team spends like the Sox on its starting staff, closer and many of its position players, there needs to be a spot or two in the lineup for minimum salary guys. In this lineup we have Salty, Els and Lowrie all at fairly short money ( Yes I know we have bench people earning more) with Drew's replacement coming in next year probably for short money as well. Salty is a low-cost experiment, but with great potential based on physical skills and a great schoolboy career.To my eyes he is improving daily and should be at or above league average, both offensively and defensively by year end at well below league average cost.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : as always the troll !
    Posted by canetime


    What is a troll? Please explain?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    salty pitched a heckuva game last night, right moonie?

    Yes, he threw the ball very well back to the pitcher.

    But, seriously, he should not be judged harshly too soon. He's still young and hasn't had a lot of time with this staff. I'm still confident he will do better and better in all aspects of the game.

    However, thinking, hoping or praying it happens soon is a pretty risky situation on team in this position and in this division.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Respectfully, go to any other significant baseball forum and tell them VMart cost his pitchers up to 1.50 in their ERA last year and you both would be bombarded with catcalls. I've tried to argue a .5 differential. Conventional wisdom is that it is not that big a factor. The pitcher can call off any pitch. It's the pitchers decision. Sometimes guys go through periods of bad luck when the pitching is not good and the catcher in part gets blamed. Posada was a decent CERA guy when his pitchers were studs but when Burnett had some bad days Posada was blamed. It's a significant stat but it's not more than .5 ERA with almost any catcher in baseball over an extended period. IMO. And I had doubts that our catching duo will even reach .700 OPS at the end of this year.

    Boom, look at the numbers of Posada vs the other catcher on the team, pitcher by pitcher and there is a profound trend that shows Posada got less from the same pitchers as his back-ups did...year after year, with very few exceptions.

    I used the numbers 0.75 to 1.50, because that is about what most diffferentials have been between VTek and VMart pitcher by pitcher. If you cut it in half (which I'm not sure there is reason to do so), the differential would still be about 0.40- 0.80. It would take more than a .150 better OPS to overcome that over a full season.

    Also boom, yes the two picks were huge concerning the VMart offer. I mentioned it on another thread last night and at the time of the Detroit signing. I think that is the $8M differential right there.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    boom,

    You are beating your head against the proverbial wall on this one.

    moonie and harness give the credit to tek when the pitchers pitch well but give him none of the blame when they pitch poorly.

    I challenge to find just one time...one time... that I ever blamed VMart, Salty, or anyobe not named VTek for a one bad game from a pitcher they caught.

    1) I very rarely make any one game comments. I do not post on the game threads. When I do post about one game, it is almost always in praise mode.

    2) I have been very supportive of Salty and have been trying to convince many posters to give him time and slack.

    3) Every catcher (good or bad CERA ones) will have days when pitchers will have bad days. No one game or few game stretch can really be blamed on a catcher. Sample sizes need to be larger to make judgements, and that is why I haven't judged Salty yet.

    4) Judging and projecting VTek is another story. His history is long and consistent when it comes to CERA. Of course there will be bad game when he catches, and of course he will make some mistakes at times. Only over a long time can we see a trend emerge. (I think it was was wrong to blame Salty for the bad start by our starters and pen.)

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    A few points while reading the day's posts:

    1) Were it not for this thread, I think my interest in continuing to post on this board would be to the point where I probably wouldn't. The high level of discussion is what this place should adhere to.

    2) I think Katz and Playball make pertinent points regarding what the intentions were with VMART. I think we can all agree that these intentions were influenced by putting a limit on a person's value.

    The question is, how much does this FO value a catcher's relevance. It they prioritize it, VMART'S value is affected. Making an offer of 3-4 years tells me they don't value it nearly as much as I do. There are other indications:

    Not playing Tek in the '09 playoffs.
    Not playing Tek once he was healthy in Sept. of 2010.

    VMART could have manned 1st in lieu of Lowell in each scenario.
    So, it really came down to Lowell or Tek. And that tells me all I have to know.

    Their position echoes that of this board in that the real issue is the actual variance.
    Some think the catcher makes no difference.
    Some think they do, but the disparity isn't what the numbers indicate.
    My position is: Everything has to be incorporated into the determination.

    1.5 runs per game is 240+ runs. That's a hell of a lot. And to answer Boom's statement: It's not a matter of proving it on another venue. The numbers are all there. Check Baseball ref.com and you'll see. Look at each pitcher individually...with each catcher. Where there's a frame of reference, the disparity, and more important, the consistency of this disparity is astounding.
     
    Now, 791's position is similar to UR's, Boom, in that a pitcher could be unlucky with one catcher over another. Luck tends to even out over time. The line drives compensate for the bloopers. My point is, if a pitcher can be unlucky, why can't he be unlucky with both catchers? Why is it the opponents of this try to manipulate the numbers so that it favors their position?

    Any statistical average is flawed to begin with. If AGONE ends up hitting .320, is it legit? Should it be .310 or .330? I go by the numbers, and so far nobody has come up with alternative ones using different criteria.

    What I have found in my research is that pitching form is by far the over-riding factor. That's why this data goes back and forth year to year. Each year has to be looked at individually. And when you see the back and forth over years with two catchers, it's not the catcher, but the variance in form.

    When you see it going one way between two catchers over years, it's far more on the catcher. Otherwise, you'd see major influx. This has been the case with VMART over the last 10+ years. In fact, I read today that a writer for the Herald said Farrell might have been calling some of VMART'S games. That's how bad it might have gotten. This is just hearsay, as far as I'm concerned.

    The disparity with the BP last year was almost 2 runs per every 9 frames. It might be one run with a deeper pen. Lester can be compromised and still win the majority of his games. But he won't win as many. And the critical time for getting the most out of a pitching staff is in the playoffs. There's little margin for error, so that's not the time to screw around. When a team is 64-27 with a particular battery, you don't go with 11-15 for an extra bat, especially when that extra bat could have manned another position.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Boston just signed Millwood.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    softy will be happy: anyone but Wake is his motto
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Imagine this:

    Jed's on 3B.

    A blooper is hit to very short LF.

    Jed stands on the base like he's thinking he might tag up.

    Instead of standing 8-10 feet off the base.

    He then moves 2 feet off the base as the ball falls, but his momentum is at zero.

    He's thrown out by less than 5 feet.

    You think we'd never hear the end of it?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Sox tied for the wild card just about 10 days after they were written off by dozens.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Sox traded for Franklin Morales of the Rockies.  DFA'd Okijima.  Not sure I understand this move, but hey, I ain't Theo.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Morales has a 1.520 Career WHIP - mainly because his BB ratio is high.
    The allure is his age (25) and the fact he pitches at Coors. He's a lefty. 210 LBS.

    I don't get the DFA for OKi. I thought he earned a chance to re-prove himself after his latest stints. He looks to have come up with a new pitch.

    Someone will pick him up. He could do well in the N.L.
    I just never got why Theo re-signed him in the first place. Obviously, they are going with Wheeler over Oki. I wonder if Morales has any options left.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Theo's a racist...will say softy.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Sox traded for Franklin Morales of the Rockies.  DFA'd Okijima.  Not sure I understand this move, but hey, I ain't Theo.

    His career BA is .250. Theo signed him to play catcher.
     
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