A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It is sad about Nava and hard to understand what happened there. The guy seemingly hits .340 all through the minors and now they send him back down and he can't hit .200. I hope it's just a slump and they didn't find a hole. The kid has come so far. I'm sure someone will give him another chance. In the long run this probably helps him.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Soxprospects.com was all over the Nava situation yesterday. It is interesting that they seem to be all over the Hassan situation also. Even more than Brentz. Hassan might end up being our next RF guys. He doesn't appear to be slowing down and some of the more knowledgeable guys are not viewing this as a fluke any more. He's leading the EL ( or 2nd ) in quite a few offensive categories. Not a lot of HR but excellent double power and he used to be a pitcher so his arm is probably decent. Expect to see him get a promotion real soon ( maybe Nava's slot in Pawtucket? ).
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Once upon a time, I thought it would be out of the question to sign Paps. Well, the heir apparent, Bard causes my ulcers to bleed. Do we actively go after Paps? I'm curious what you guys opinion on this is.
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]



    See a good doctor.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Moon : A question: After Drew/Cam are off the books this winter, can the team sign Paps (10-12 mil a year) and still make a 2-year pitch to Papi - while staying under the tax threshold? (Assuming Drew is replaced by the farm). Or will it come down to keeping Paps or Papi?  You know my position on paying huge money for a closer (in short, it rarely works), but I will go along with the idea. We lose these deals (Cap number): Drew: $14M Papi:  $12.5M Paps: $12M Cam: $7.25M Scut: $4.7M ($14m/3 assuming buyout) Wheel: $3M (if he goes over 65 gms we owe $3+M in 2012) VTek:  $2M Oki:    $2M Wake: $2M Taz:  $1.1M With some other s, this totals about $60M lost. Assuming we keep the same budget as this year, I think Papi and Paps can both be back. Lety's assume Paps @ $42M/3 ($14M per) and Papi @ $24M/2 ($12M per); thats $26M per year with these other slots to fill on about $36M per year: RF: Free Agent or Kalish (see below) OF: Kalish/Reddick/Linares SS: Free Agent, Lowrie, or Iglesias C:   Free Agent or Lavarnway or other kid RP: Free Agent or several choices from within SP: Free Agent or Doubront or other kid RP: Free Agent or several choices from within. A lot depends on Theo's view on how many of these kids can backfill these slots well enough to compete.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Appreciate it, Moon.

    Yes, I know UR stance on high-priced relievers.
    You know mine on Paps value. As I see it, the Sox would be in deep doo-doo if not for paps this year. If they let him walk, they have to replace him with one who can cut it in this venue - in this presure-cooker of a city - against tough competition.
    As you can see, Soriano/Jenks are having a tough time with the transition.
    Paps was born into it.

    On Papi, I wouldn't go 12 mil a year. Not on a two-year deal. This time, I'd hold out on 8 mil a year and see if the FA market can top it. If he walks, get a RH bat that can play the field, thus possibly eliminating the 5th outfield spot.

    Papi is gonna have  to take a discount if he wants to keep playing in Boston. And unless Bard starts to show he can cut it in the closer role, I'd make Paps a priority, unless there's a better option.

    I'm glad they have the resources to do both, though.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : See a good doctor.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I'm glad you didn't suggest a colonoscopy....
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]It is sad about Nava and hard to understand what happened there. The guy seemingly hits .340 all through the minors and now they send him back down and he can't hit .200. I hope it's just a slump and they didn't find a hole. The kid has come so far. I'm sure someone will give him another chance. In the long run this probably helps him.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely, Boom...

    Unfortunately for him, Boston was a dead end.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    A catcher liking and performing well with a catcher can often have little to do with the catcher taking the pitcher by the hand and leading him through the game while the pitcher thoughtlessly throws whatever the catcher calls. Beckett often shakes off Tek. Heck Buchholz at this point shakes off everyone. I think Tek should have gotten high fives the other night for getting Aceves to accept one of his initial calls.

    The McCarver story with Carlton telling him on a visit to the mound that the only thing Tim knew about pitching was he could not hit it speaks to this. because while Carlton said that according to McCarver, he always wanted McCarver catching him, even with the great Bob Boone on the roster.  Those two (Beckett and Tek) have great chemistry at this point and that is all that counts, the why of it we will never know for sure because Beckett might not even be able to explain it.

    katz, I always enjoy your thoughtful posts. I have said at times that in a way, I don't really care and think we may never know the reason(s) why almost all our pitchers have done better with VTek. It just is. It might just mean we have to bide our time until some pitchers become "familiar" of "comfy" with Salty or our next FT catcher.

    Bard's thing right now is he can get sloppy with his secondary pitches and when he does and the hitter is sitting on one they get hit really hard. And if all he throws is 98, most of his fastballs are on a string, so matter how fast if the hitter has seen enough and guesses right he has a decent chance to drive the ball. So Bard needs to use his two secondary pitches and if he isn't commanding them bad things can happen.

    I agree, and I wouldn't close the book on Bard as a potential top closer. He has nasty stuff, and to me that is the most important thing to have at this point in his career. He hasn't done a good job this year as out 8th inning guy, but that doesn't mean he can't someday soon, become a great 9th inning guy. I have also not given up on Jenks.

    Hate to say it but in a way the inning points out it isn't just other catchers who have pitchers get a little too much of the plate, the hitter sitting on that pitch and the ball exiting the confines quickly. That reaction is what a few thousand catchers relevance posts will do I suppose (my bad, I know.)

    Could it be something as simple as the target they set?

    Bard's eventually being a closer is yet to be seen. he bounces back from these tough outings well and that is a big part of being a closer because it is hard for a pitcher to accept when the game has been given to him to bring home after 8 innings of hard work by his teammates and he fails. To me greatness as a closer is at  least 60% how they handle the occasional failure.

    And whatever anyone wants to say about Papelbon, he's got the ability to go in shower and wash off a tough loss and come out the next night wanting the ball and believing he should have the ball.

    He certainly has the closer mentality, even after initially disliking the conversion.

    The biggest difference for Papelbon this year to me is better command (look at the K to BB ratio). It sets up the split. And when he throws one split for a strike in an appearance to any batter, once he is up on the count on any proceeding batter, that guy might as well head back to the dugout.

    I hope it's not all about the "contract year". Papelbon has been good to great for several years, and not bad last year. There are not many closers who have been as consistent as Paps. Perhaps, he is the exception to my general position on closers.

    Moon you are right that huge money for closers is a big risk but the lack of one is a sure way not to see post season.

    So true. I try to look at it this way: say the choices are signing Papelbon to a 3 year $45M deal or use the money to gte a less expensive ($20M/3) but fine set-up guy and hope he, bard, or Jenks can fill the role well... not as good as paps, but well. There's a chance Papelbon could not do well after signing and a better chance the best of the other three will not do well. Is the differential in that chance worth a $25M difference in pay? If Theo spent that $25M wisely at another position, I think not signing Paps can make sense.

    I realize it's a big gamble, but to me, only Rivera was a sure bet enough to have ever warranted a huge multi year deal.

    Tough call for the RS because getting the last 3 outs is special and more so on a team like the NYY or RS.   

    Not if we're ahead by 4 every late game...

    Tongue out
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Appreciate it, Moon.

    Yes, I know UR stance on high-priced relievers.
    You know mine on Paps value. As I see it, the Sox would be in deep doo-doo if not for paps this year. If they let him walk, they have to replace him with one who can cut it in this venue - in this presure-cooker of a city - against tough competition.
    As you can see, Soriano/Jenks are having a tough time with the transition.
    Paps was born into it.

    They are transitioning into a different role as well as a pressure situation. I agree, that so far this year, Paps has been a savior and anyone else appears to be not fit for that role.

    On Papi, I wouldn't go 12 mil a year. Not on a two-year deal. This time, I'd hold out on 8 mil a year and see if the FA market can top it. If he walks, get a RH bat that can play the field, thus possibly eliminating the 5th outfield spot.

    They may offer $20M/2 with moderate incentives to bring him to $25M (no pay cut) or even higher if he does great.

    Papi is gonna have  to take a discount if he wants to keep playing in Boston. And unless Bard starts to show he can cut it in the closer role, I'd make Paps a priority, unless there's a better option.

    harness, if he puts up last year's post April/May numbers added to what he has done this year, he will not want a pay cut.

    I'm glad they have the resources to do both, though.

    ...and then some, but this presupposes that many kids will fill the other open slots. I am confident they can and will, but that Crawford deal cripples us if they don't.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : Appreciate it, Moon . Yes, I know UR stance on high-priced relievers. You know mine on Paps value. As I see it, the Sox would be in deep doo-doo if not for paps this year. If they let him walk, they have to replace him with one who can cut it in this venue - in this presure-cooker of a city - against tough competition. As you can see, Soriano/Jenks are having a tough time with the transition. Paps was born into it. On Papi, I wouldn't go 12 mil a year. Not on a two-year deal. This time, I'd hold out on 8 mil a year and see if the FA market can top it. If he walks, get a RH bat that can play the field, thus possibly eliminating the 5th outfield spot. Papi is gonna have  to take a discount if he wants to keep playing in Boston. And unless Bard starts to show he can cut it in the closer role, I'd make Paps a priority, unless there's a better option. I'm glad they have the resources to do both, though.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]I don't think it is even fair to judge Jenks performance in his brief time as being the market. The guy is on the DL and 90% of the time when it comes to pitchers who have struggled for awhile before the DL trip, it is safe to say their struggles were physical impairment. That said healthy Jenks is no Papelbon. Bard has that easy electric stuff and because of it and some eye popping stats people were quick to dismiss his low SVO to SO percentages. Jury is out still because the guy has been killer with inherited runners ( a high pressure situation) and has hurt himself by making his own mess and not being able to get out clean.

    Papelbon may be hard to sign. It certainly is his right but I believe he has gone this far with no security to get the biggest, longest contract he can find. He will be the first in-house FA in the Epstein era to be retained under those circumstances. I have no idea and I don't think anyone else does how the market will perform for him in years or dollars. $14M maybe high, 2 years may be way short.

    At David's age it is very early to be speculating just where his valuation will go because the totality of his work will drive it. I think we do know he will be worth more than $8M. Vlad is the nearest comp at $8M and Ortiz is a better DH than Vlad. $12M may be high. And I think the Ortiz swagger alone and the RS desire to have the insurance of draft picks if he walks will set an offer of arbitration in motion. And if I were Ortiz agent unless I could get a $20M two year deal with a third year mutual options and buy out, I would be tempted to take the arbitration award which should go north of $12M.

    But the scary one will be the closer. Only one thing feels worse or bad as paying $12M to a guy not getting it done. And that is not having anybody who can get the last three outs when it matters. Question is will someone show up like the Mets did and just blow the roof off of sane limits for what a top line closer is worth? 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    On Bard's dingers and battery rhythm:

    Bard gave up a cheap foul pole homer. The one to IGGY was one great hitter saying to Bard "You can get away with that on most hitters, but not with me".

    Like the hits off Paps in a tie game - it has a humbling affect. They have to be reminded that their stuff alone isn't gonna be enough against many M.L. hitters. They have to concentrate and command.

    Statistically, there's always the evening out process. Bard will find too much of the plate with any receiver. The margin for error is in the sequence and in his ability to  command. Before last night:

    Bard w/Tek since 2010: 31.6 IP  16 H  2 ER  0.57 ERA
    Bard is good, but not that good!
    Now the numbers read: 32.6 IP   18 H  4 ER  1.11 ERA

    At the same time, his numbers with Salty should improve. Currently:
    Since 2010: 11 IP  7 H  7 ER  5.73 ERA  Very Short SS.

    It's all about having a greater margin for error. A catcher influences this aspect - but not as much as the pitcher.





    Pitchers as they become vets put less thought into repetitive mechanics, and more into setting up hitters. The whole idea is to get on the same page as their catcher. If they feel good about a certain pitch at a certain time, they'll wait for that sign.
    The catcher might be going by scouting reports - or being acute to in-game adjustments. If you watch signs closely, it's not just a type of pitch, but location as well. The pitcher might like the sign for a cutter, but not the location.

    If you watched the at bat with Iggy vs. Paps, Tek stayed with heat, all the way. This surprised me - and I think Iggy felt the split was coming at any time once the count went to 2-2. But Paps had a great heater: 96-97. And his command of it was good. So they simply didn't want to get beat with anything less. And in the back of IGGY"s mind was that cutter. That was the advantage Paps needed.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I really don't think that Papelbon's improved SO to BB ratio is in any way connected to his walk year. IMHO a more likely answer would be he has finally unscrambled the changes he made to his mechanics two years ago to take some stress off of his shoulder. The jump in WHIP and reduction in SO/BB began in 2009 and carried over to last year. The change in pitching coaches might have as much to do with the improved command or more than impending FA. Papelbon was in recent years playing for his next contract already, so while the rewards may be slightly higher this year, he just doesn't strike me as a guy who thinks walks and blown saves are tolerable.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Sad day for Boom and all fans of underdog kids. Daniel Nava has been DFed today.

    I hope someone takes a chance on this guy: someone who has room for him to get to the ML.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon: In a way, the CC contract is crippling. But OTOH, it enables the team to only have to fill one outfield position. And they have several choices on the farm.
    It may involve different faces on different bus rides for a time.
    But the fact that only Rf needs to be filled is huge. Especially considering other team needs at the time.

    Furthermore, I doubt fans will ever see the true value CC adds to the club, given Jake's presence. For this reason, his contract will forever be an eye sore. At the same time, Drew brings intangibles that will be ignored by one-dimensional thinkers.

    It's a pity that this is the age of the millionaire player. Value measured in $$$ alone leads to narrowed vision.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]If you watched the at bat with Iggy vs. Paps, Tek stayed with heat, all the way. This surprised me - and I think Iggy felt the split was coming at any time once the count went to 2-2. But Paps had a great heater: 96-97. And his command of it was good. So they simply didn't want to get beat with anything less. And in the back of IGGY"s mind was that cutter. That was the advantage Paps needed.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]That did not surprise me, with a guy on third it takes some big ones to call for or throw the splitter. Break it off too good and the run walks home while the catcher goes and fetches it from the back stop. IF Papelbon's going to get beaten, both the catcher and the pitcher want it to be on the pitch. Same situation as the night before when Salty was catching Papelbon with a 1-0 lead BTW.  
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : I don't think it is even fair to judge Jenks performance in his brief time as being the market. The guy is on the DL and 90% of the time when it comes to pitchers who have struggled for awhile before the DL trip, it is safe to say their struggles were physical impairment. That said healthy Jenks is no Papelbon.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]
    Just look at Jenks' first four outings: 4 IP, 5 SO, 0 hits, 0 ER. Something went horribly wrong after that. The kid has talent. We Yankees fans aren't giving up on Soriano.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    But that's the whole idea, Katz: To have the guts to call for and throw the unexpected. The pitch doesn't have to be perfect. The margin for error is greater.

    And I think if Paps was throwing 94, I believe that's what we'd have seen. But not at 96-97 with his deception. The idea is to keep the hitter from sitting dead red on one pitch in one location. Or, as Palmer would say: "The art of pitching is keeping the hitter off-balance".

    On Jenks, I agree with you in that it's too early to make any definitive call. He has good stuff, but now has less margin for error pitching at the Fens against better comp. He has to refine is location...without the brain cramps.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It's a pity that this is the age of the millionaire player. Value measured in $$$ alone leads to narrowed vision.

    It doesn't bother me that players make millions upon millions. People ar paying big money to see them and 162 geames is a lot of money to be spread around.

    The issue with money to me is simply: what other or better ways could that money have been spent.

    I don't think $20+M is worth checking off one future positional need for the likes of CC.
    He's barely better than Ellsbury and may not be here on out. He stinks against lefties, and "stinks" is a kind word. His fielding was over-rated, and his speed is a plus, but it is hurt by his comparatively low (to others making $14M+) overall OBP. I was never on this bandwagon, even if he put up 2010 numbers for 2-3 years then dropped off slightly after that each year. $20+M per year for 7 years could have bought us 3-4 very good players.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    My issue with the age of the millionaire isn't so much the ludicrous prices fans will pay to support this American royalty - but with how players are measured.

    "If he's making 20 mil; - he has to be worth 20 mil".
    Well, it's easier to measure Manny's skill-set on paper than it is CC's.
    I get UR allocation for $$$ spent. That's a given.

    The task is to keep the team competitive while keeping the farm relatively stocked.
    If that means signing Lackey or CC and over-paying, so be it.
    A team in regression means drastic revenue drop. That is far worse than over-spending.

    It's not an easy balance for the FO. But while NY gets older, Theo continues a prime-youth movement. And so far, I don't see how spending 20 mil on a player worth 65% of that is gonna cripple their future prognosis. 

    They can fill SS/RF/BP depth cheaply. The core of this team is primed for a continued run.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Guys, I am watching this slugfest with the Cubs.  A few thoughts.  I have seen Lowrie hit a couple of amazing line drives, two for four at the plate,  go deep in the hole at short, and make a great (under the circumstances) throw to first which A-Gon bobbled.  This is absurd on a team like this; if I was Theo Jed would be gone tomorrow.  And Ellsbury slammed a double, ran the bases perfectly, and is scoring from first on a lot of doubles.  That guy would be sent to the Bangor Lobsters tomorrow if I was the GM.  Why can't we get some decent players around here? And I'm keeping an eye on Salty too.  He may have potential but he cranked one into the Monster seats.    That boy needs watching.
                                                      Soft Critter
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Salty doubles!  No, single and error!  I'm calling Bangor immediately...

                                                           Soft Critter, GM Extra-Ordinaire
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    It's not an easy balance for the FO. But while NY gets older, Theo continues a prime-youth movement. And so far, I don't see how spending 20 mil on a player worth 65% of that is gonna cripple their future prognosis...

    35% of 142M is almost $50M. We'll talk at a later date about what we could have gotten for $50M over 7 years.

    I realize signing impact players means you have to "overpay". I realize that some of that cost should be judged against the fact that no money was spent on developing a FA. The amount management pays in player development to produce a few handful of players shuld be figured in when comparing cost methods to building a team.

    Another factor in your favor is this: signing 4 good players at $5M instead of one at $20M is problematic since players at $5M would not likely take over any slots on our starting team except maybe at catcher. Spending bif at one position has merit, but again, I did not see OF as our biggest, second biggest, or even 3rd biggest  weakness this past winter.

    Sure, Crawford is better than a Cam/Kalish/Reddick/DMac combo, but $20M worth?

    There were also trade options, and RH'd hitters that fit better on paper, although many of them are off to just as bad starts as CC.

    The length and amount were both extreme to me. My point has always been that even if he produces like 2010 for 2-3 years, then less and less slightly until year 7, we could have done better.

    My take on our biggest weakness after keeping Papi last November was:

    1) 3B/1B
    2) C
    3) RP
    4) RP2
    5) OF (RH'd)
    6) RP3
    7) SP/RP (middle/long)

    As bad as Crawford is against lefties, I don't see hima ddressing any of my lists' top priorities... not to mention the fact that he isn't that great anyway even if we needed a LH's OF'er.


    2
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Ellsbury hits the wall, Crawford scores from second.  Harness, it's CRAWBURY!
    Some of these guys have to be moved!    A-Gon hits wall, Ellsbury slides into 
    third!  Trade 'em all to the NL and throw in Wake--tomorrow's starting pitcher.
    It's 15-5, something has to be done.  
                                                        Soft Critter 











    A
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury hits the wall, Crawford scores from second.  Harness, it's CRAWBURY! Some of these guys have to be moved!    A-Gon hits wall, Ellsbury slides into  third!  Trade 'em all to the NL and throw in Wake--tomorrow's starting pitcher. It's 15-5, something has to be done.                                                       Soft Critter  A
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    young guys look-ells 297 avg 21 rbi-14sb and lowrie 313 avg -19 rbi,great!!!!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The softy twins are #4 and 5 in OPS on this team.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Boom and Amp I think Nava was exposed very shortly after his great start last year. ML pitching has a tendency to do that to marginal players; and remember he is an awful defensive player.
    Of course, ML pitching is something that the Cubs are still in search of. That rotten staff and the first decent weather in Fenway maybe all season, really has the bats cranking. It's hard to believe that we went this deep into the season before we hit double digits in a game.
    Hopefully, our new fourth and fifth starters can keep the fires burning over the weekend. As hard as it may be to believe after the terrible start, we could be leading the division by Memorial Day!
     

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