A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Talk about getting Tito to break an old paradigm...

    Pulling Buch after just 94 pitches...
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    That's because Buch threw 127 last outing.
    I felt he pulled him one batter too early. Problem is, he still sees Bard as last year's model. And he still doesn't see Hill as a sound compliment.

    With Brantly - a lefty coming up - Hill was the go-to guy. If he gets Brantly, stay with him. If not, Tito has the option of Bard...and walking Cabrera. Tito should have known Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting RH pitching at a .333 clip, and hot as hell. But He is some 55 points less against southpaws.

    I like how Tito is at least acknowledging Hill in the 8th frame now, but the process has been weeks in coming. And sooner or later he's gonna realize Hill is the new "old Oki".

    One other note on Bard: He's got a 1.32 ERA at home.
    On the road, he's 0-3, 5.91 ERA .
    His OPP OPS is half at home of what it is on the road.

    EDIT: This data does not include tonight's game.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Boom, I would love to get together with you in Maine.  I live in Harrison, between Long Lake and Chrystal Lake--near Bridgton, Norway, South Paris.  I will hold you to that meeting in Maine.  Hopefully you can retire there and make some money in the summers renting to tourists.  So what part of the State are you in?

    Moon, I had fun too.  I think I still have your letter and Maine number.  I will definitely call and hopefully we can give Boom a scouting report on the Sea Dogs.

    On baseball, a couple of questions.  How agressive are teams at the major league level asking players to change their stance?  Jid, nice to hear from you and I enjoyed your views on what you're seeing; think you're right on as to Salty and Papi.  CC really looks like Coco Crisp to me in his stance.  My baseball background was brief but when I got into coaching softball, I worked with a great batting coach.  He always wanted a stance where the hitter could react as quickly as possible to the pitch.  I've never cared for these stances where you step once (timing device?) to get to your stance then step again to hit.
    And finally, it sounds like Dice K might be done for the year.  I didn't know this was so serious.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Crit and Moon, there are lots of us here who spend time in Maine as you both know. It would be fun to get together. If I were in Maine I'd be making regular trips to see the Sea Dogs, Lowell and Pawtucket and roll out the best farm blog this side of soxprospects.com. It's just really tough to do it right without photos and video. Someone needs to go to the games to get photos and video. I don't want to do it unless I can do it right, and I'm not commuting from San Diego!

    Thought we had them today. When Ellsbury got thrown out I kept saying Nooooo! The turf was wet and Marson is a defensive stud. It was almost inevitable. The situation said yes  but the stars were no aligned. If he wasn't thrown out we probably tie them up there.

    I thought we'd get to Masterson a little more with our left hand dominant lineup. When he's getting double plays he puts up great numbers. Now he's throwing 97 also. He is a definite stud now.

    Maybe Crawford hit's 2nd tomorrow? A little protection from Adrian might do wonders. I hope he takes some pitches if he gets the opportunity. They are going to have to throw some strikes soon if he's hitting in front of Adrian. I really think it is what the doctor ordered. The guy is swinging at a lot of bad pitchers now.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    You mean...

    1) Ells
    2) Craw
    3) Youk
    4) Agon
    5) Papi
    6) Pedey
    7) Drew
    8) Lowrie
    9) Salty

    (Maybe flip Pedey/Papi and or Drew/Jed)

    Looks a lot like my March line-up vs RHPs.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    If Pedey's dropped, hitting him 8th makes more sense.
    Otherwise, why drop him?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The key to the game was Sutton missing the grounder to his left.  Pedroia would have gobbled it up....one out and nobody on.

    Unfortunately, I think my prediction a while back concerning the longevity(or lack of) of Japanerse pitchers is coming to fruitition. In essence it seemes Dice-k's career could possibly be over.  I hope I'm wrong, but it seems that way.

    So, what now?  I certainly hope that Tito's selection of Bard in the eight isn't etched in stone.  I fear that with all the work Bard does, we'll burn him outl  Besides, whart ever happened to his filthy slider and curve?

    I think Tito has some experimenting to do...Aceves?, Hill?  Someone has to come out of the woodwork to anchor the 7th+8th innings.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Jid, all we needed from CC was a fly ball.  Instead, hr hits a a grounder(about 80% o the time) for a double play.

    Actually, I woud have thought of squeezing.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Crawford before tonight's game:
    23 line drives.
    45 fly balls
    74 Ground balls
    34 SO

    An analogy:

    AGONE:
    23 line drives
    63 flyballs
    72 ground balls
    31 SO

    Crawford is hitting .275 in high-leverage situations.
    This is what I mean AMP: The guy hits a dinger and scores both their runs.
    But he's be remembered for the DP - which he almost beat out.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Nobody should ever be "blamed" for 1 AB, 1 game, or even a bad month. Every great player in MLB has had bad stretches.

    CC has been showing signs of coming out of his funk. I did like the idea of a squeeze, but the way CC has been hitting recently, a fly ball/hit was a good likelihood.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    That's because Buch threw 127 last outing. I felt he pulled him one batter too early. Problem is, he still sees Bard as last year's model. And he still doesn't see Hill as a sound compliment. With Brantly - a lefty coming up - Hill was the go-to guy. If he gets Brantly, stay with him. If not, Tito has the option of Bard...and walking Cabrera. Tito should have known Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting RH pitching at a .333 clip, and hot as hell. But He is some 55 points less against southpaws. I like how Tito is at least acknowledging Hill in the 8th frame now, but the process has been weeks in coming. And sooner or later he's gonna realize Hill is the new "old Oki". One other note on Bard: He's got a 1.32 ERA at home. On the road, he's 0-3, 5.91 ERA . His OPP OPS is half at home of what it is on the road. EDIT: This data does not include tonight's game.
    Posted by harness
    Great point on Buch.

    As for Bard until last night while Bard had struggled at moments with clean frames of his own he had not allowed an inherited runner to score. Hindsight makes it a much easier call but I can see why Tito hasn't bailed on the guy yet. He was sharp just the night before too.

    I hope that Hill's results hold, the new delivery point certainly looks like he is going to be filthy versus LH hitters. Albers looked great right until Saturday night so who knows what happens if Hill comes in?

    Nice to see Crawford go deep, it has to be good for his confidence.

    Not to beat on him as topic too much, once he gets going I think we all know he won't be the tragic hole in the line-up he has been to start the season. In fact I think he will be a positive figure.

    But I think the odds are 10% that he every becomes the player that justifies his salary, because he wasn't when he signed. But it is comforting that he isn't the player we have seen so far.

    Now we can come up with all kinds of intangible numbers, like the similarity in how he strikes the ball to A-Gon's splits and talk about DP's not turned. But it won't put perfume on the contract. What we have is a less defensively versatile version of Ellsbury, with slightly more power who would find few friends trying defend a contract close to this.

    Perhaps the best way to put this we paid Batman money for Robin. I will be curious to see where Tito places Crawford in his line-up with Pedey out for the day. But I don't think that people were pitching around him to get to Salty/Tek too often. His speed negates that. He just hasn't been seeing the ball well and IMO his swing right now makes him vulnerable in much of strike zone. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Crawford definitely isn't trying to do "too much". In fact, he has a fear of padded walls, something the author of this unrealistic thread is in great need of.

    Great spot for the squeeze play, as Crawford is a gas guzzler who is sputtering, idling and backfiring for his 20M this season. I think Tito thinks the squeeze play is where he tends to jock itch.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    So, maybe Theo does know what he is doing a little bit. The clown who thought Oki was in great demand, needs to come out of his "padded room" and actually watch a game for once...


    "Hideki Okajima, who was designated for assignment on Friday, cleared waivers and was assigned to Pawtucket."
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Rays went 1-8 in their first 9, then 22-7 in their next 29, now 3-8 in their last 11 for a record of 26-23.  Is one of the beauties of baseball that so much stuff happens that can't be logically explained?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Passing thoughts.

    Good game tonight. Beckett was very strong again. The RS pitching has been quite good.

    Nice to see Tek go yard. And threw out a couple of baserunners too. I don't know if the NESN feed caught it but after the final out while you couldn't read lips Papelbon was in "deep and animated" conversation with Tek and it continued towards the dugout without interupption until the feed ended and Extra Innings switched the Giant-Fish feed. I don't think I used to notice this or how often Beckett shakes off Tek until that the catcher became such an enduring topic on BDC. But those were just side notes, on the all it was one of those nights where Tek looked fresh and like he rolled back the calendar to 2007. Enjoyable indeed.

    Not sure what Crawford was thinking in the near collision with Ellsbury, the Indians feed showed Ellsbury was calling for that fly for a long time. No harm no foul. And how the speed of those two can come into play in the third inning. Those runs don't happen with station to station runners on even they are quicker intelligent runners like a Drew is.

    Just watching Sportscenter as I type and guess who just butchered a routine ball that had 4-6-3 written on it. Everybody's favorite utility guy with "pop" Next batter went yard. Boy I am not sure how Drew Sutton did MLB stints with other teams before, that guy is just a shaky defensive player and in his few ABs looks like he is over matched.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    Passing thoughts. Good game tonight. Beckett was very strong again. The RS pitching has been quite good. Nice to see Tek go yard. And threw out a couple of baserunners too. I don't know if the NESN feed caught it but after the final out while you couldn't read lips Papelbon was in "deep and animated" conversation with Tek and it continued towards the dugout without interupption until the feed ended and Extra Innings switched the Giant-Fish feed. I don't think I used to notice this or how often Beckett shakes off Tek until that the catcher became such an enduring topic on BDC. But those were just side notes, on the all it was one of those nights where Tek looked fresh and like he rolled back the calendar to 2007. Enjoyable indeed. Not sure what Crawford was thinking in the near collision with Ellsbury, the Indians feed showed Ellsbury was calling for that fly for a long time. No harm no foul. And how the speed of those two can come into play in the third inning. Those runs don't happen with station to station runners on even they are quicker intelligent runners like a Drew is. Just watching Sportscenter as I type and guess who just butchered a routine ball that had 4-6-3 written on it. Everybody's favorite utility guy with "pop" Next batter went yard. Boy I am not sure how Drew Sutton did MLB stints with other teams before, that guy is just a shaky defensive player and in his few ABs looks like he is over matched.
    Posted by fivekatz

    Talking about Bill Hall? Didn't see the play, but it was a grand slam that happened. A four-run error is hard to come by, but Bill Hall was able to pull it off.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II



    The loss of Matsuzaka will probably mean that Varitek will only catch VTek and Salty will get more time.  I think this is a good thing because VTek certainly looked fresh tonight.  At his age, this is certainly a good thing and should help.

    I'd love to be a fly on the wall and hear the dialogue between Ellsbury and Crawford in the clubhouse concerning that near disaster.  I feel it was, without a doubt, Ellsbury's ball.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    The loss of Matsuzaka will probably mean that Varitek will only catch VTek and Salty will get more time.  I think this is a good thing because VTek certainly looked fresh tonight.  At his age, this is certainly a good thing and should help. I'd love to be a fly on the wall and hear the dialogue between Ellsbury and Crawford in the clubhouse concerning that near disaster.  I feel it was, without a doubt, Ellsbury's ball.
    Posted by ampoule

    Thank goodness for that, you almost gave Softlaw a heart attack suggesting Varitek would actually catch a pitcher.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon, thanks for keeping some of us from jumping off the ship a few weeks back.  You were adament they would come back, and look where we are.  Looks like we've got relievers returning soon and Lackey.  Hopefully the time away may have cleared some heads, and they'll all return and get in a positive flow.  I'm worried about the language I'm hearing about Dice-K, it doesn't sound good.  It seems like there's a good vibe around the team now, maybe because of what they've been through early.  Have to say, every time I see or hear about this Cleveland pitcher today, I wish we had him back. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Good point amp. I do think VTek will work more than 1 out of 5 games, but maybe more than 2/5ths. I think Tito can now use VTek strategically when we face certain tough lefties against Salty's bat. This will also keep Vtek "familiar" with the rest of the staff, in case VTek is forced into a greater role later in the season.


    katz, I'm down here in Sugar Land, TX. The media is roasting BHall alive day after day. It must be the color of his skin, I guess, because he's really doing great for the 'Stros.

    Too bad racism blinds so many people!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Well, I saw that big red truck with the sign:

    Softlaw  Glue Factory  turn around and head back home; empty-handed (and empty-headed). The driver mumbled something about "picking up a Tek"  - or something like that.


    Nice to see Tito finally realizing Hill's worth. It only took him 2-3 weeks to see Hill is throwing near unhittable strikes...even to righties, as that curve bears in, gets the corner, and end up almost hitting the batter! The guy has a variance of 15-17 MPH off his 91 MPH FB.  He is the perfect compliment to Bard. And Tito should have been mix-matching them for some time now.

    No hindsight, Katz. Been saying this for two weeks.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I, too, noticed the Paps/Tek dialog. I've seen it many times before with these two, but not as exaggerated.

    Next time Salty catches a Paps save, check it out after the fist pump. I've never seen them share a word. Salty has to win over the pitcher's confidence.

    I think Tito uses Tek for Josh and on day games after night ones. He'll likely catch Aceves until a decision is made to return him to a pen in need of him. I doubt Tito will match Tek to opposing pitchers. His limited bat should not dictate when he catches.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I think you are right (Tito will do that), but I disagree with the idea.

    I still think VTek will end up way better vs LHPs and Salty way better vs RHPs, so I see a potetial for a sizable gain.

    There is merit to the day after night games, but those are few and far between, and as long as Salty is getting 1 out of 5 days rest or maybe 3 out of 10 (or 4/15), I don't think it will effect him at his young age.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    I, too, noticed the Paps/Tek dialog. I've seen it many times before with these two, but not as exaggerated. Next time Salty catches a Paps save, check it out after the fist pump. I've never seen them share a word. Salty has to win over the pitcher's confidence. I think Tito uses Tek for Josh and on day games after night ones. He'll likely catch Aceves until a decision is made to return him to a pen in need of him. I doubt Tito will match Tek to opposing pitchers. His limited bat should not dictate when he catches.
    Posted by harness
    Harness may be it is just me but I don't think they were seeing eye to eye in that conversation at all. Neither guy was smiling, Papelbon still had that game face on and Tek's facial expression looked like he was being harrassed by nagging wife. Now I take that slightly differently than you might think. I don't hink they were on the same page tonight and the good thing about that is the pitchers feel comfortable enough with Tek to be as candid about it.

    On the flip side BTW I have only seen Paps interact with Salty once and it was a big smile and his arm around him. Now I think a lot of that is the veterans are rooting for the kid and he was as happy for Salty that the RS had a strong pitching night as he was with the win. I don't think the pitchers are ready yet to just give it to Salty unvarnished, even Lackey.  And I think Salty is also quicker to subrogate to the pitchers in game too.

    It is funny how we both saw the same thing and saw the opposite thing tonight because IMO there was nothing warm or adoring about Papelbon's body language.

    On the subject of Tek and Salty I think you are right that Tito isn't going to match pitcher-catcher tandems based on Tek's historical splits versus LH pitching. The older a player is IMO the less his historical splits dictate results in the present being as good. And in Salty's case they probably believe the opposite is hopefully true about his splits.

    The pitchers will dictate match-ups. And IMO that means that Tek will catch Beckett as long as Tek is healthy and Salty will get Wake as long as he is in the rotation. If Salty heats up at the plate he'll catch more but right now Tek will catch Aceves as the rotation lines up nicely for that.

    Not to be Debbie Downer they are going to look to limit Tek's games to keep him fresh so that his offense is not a black hole in the line-up and he stays healthy. Gotta protect Beckett's security blanket (wink).
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


    I can't, in my worse nightmare, even imagine having to bat against a guy like Hill whose ball to lefties comes in from 1st base somewhere.  And, he's effective against righties too.  This guy has got to be a tremendous asset to us.

    My only concern is over-use where MLB batters will figure him out and start feeling comfortable over time.  I think it's critical that Tito uses him correctly.  What that is?  I don't know.  Because of this, I wonder how often he should be used.

    Okajima was initially tremendously effective.  Eventually, it wore off.  Whether or not it was mechanical, I don't know.  One thing going for Hill is that besides throwing strikes, his velocity is greater than Okajima's was.

    Hence, I'm cautiously optimistic. 
     
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