A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    "Money-dogs".  "Meritocracy".

    Great terms! But Moon's pun stole the show.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon I agree Wake is looked at differently. That being said I remember him being streaky.  Here are his monthly ERAs:

    2011  5.6  3.5
    2010  5.4   5.9   4.5   7.2   2.5   4.2    9 
    2009  1.9   6.8   3.5   5.1   1.3   8.4
    2008  4.1   5.3   2.4   4.1   2.7   6.7 (16.9 PO)
    2007  2.6   4.1   6.0   5.5   2.5   8.8 (9.6  PO)

    I'd say he has been a decent #5/swing man but a bit frustrating because of the big swings in performance.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    can we use his SP ERA or RP ERA for 2010 and this year...oh, I see, they are quite different..ummmm
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Dice-K monthly ERA's - 2007:

    4.36  5.22  1.59  3.62  4.45  7.62

    How about 2009:

    12.79  6.30  7.71  2.22

    or 2010: 

    5.77  2.81  3.64  4.13  6.31


    Does Dice throw a knuckler?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Wake averages a win more a season than Dice.
    Wanna talk revenue output?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Is the bar for consistency set by DiceK? 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Is the bar for inconsistency set by Wake?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    If somebody wanted to whine about something that has happened to Tim Wakefield in the last couple of years it would be Epstein getting him to alter his contract to have IP incentives rather than the flat $4M evergreen team option deal he had right before he signed Lackey.

    It is a business folks. If the RS have a ton money tied up in younger pitchers with higher ceilings they are going to play so long as their health permits and their performance isn't unacceptable.

    Let's accept for a second Lackey is going to get his position in starting rotation back when the RS deem is mentally and physically able to perform. I am willing to bet Aceves goes to the bullpen.

    Poor Aceves has pitched circles around Timmy this year. He was way better than Tim is ST. He has been more effective coming out of bullpen. He has been equally effective as a starter and doesn't have the extra outing (a bad one) that Tim does. His ERA is better, his WHIP is better and he has less passed balls in his career than Wake has most games. He has been jerked around sent down and called, used as a reliever and a starter and now he is being sent back to the BP even though his metrics are better than Wake's.

    Now on the surface this is unfair (boo bleeping hoo).

    But it is what is best for the team because Aceves is so much better coming on the BP than Wakefield that it won't matter that he might be marginally better than Wakefield as a starter.




     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Agree Katz. And it'll be interesting as to how Aceves takes this perceived demotion.
    One thing to keep in mind: Aceves is a rookie with Boston. And because he has options, he is likely to get jerked around.

    OTOH, Wake is close to 200 wins, most with Boston. He has done everything ever asked of him as best he could. A veteran like that, who has saved this franchise a boatload of $$$ and is charitable to a fault nonetheless, deserves better. And if UR looking at this as what is best for the team, Wake's value is as a starter.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tom, I saw your stats regarding Lackey's swings and misses and I can tell you with all due respect that that has nothing to do with whether or not a guy is a premier pitcher. I once saw Bill Lee pitch an eleven hit shutout with only one strikeout. Now this was well before the emphasis on pitch counts, but I'd be willing to bet that Lee didn't throw more than 80 pitches that day and his team made four or five double-plays behind him. Pitching is about getting guys out, simple as that. As a former catcher I would love to see a pitcher pitch to contact and have economical innings. Throughout Lackey's career, not necessarily his time in Boston, Lackey has been a pitch to contact pitcher who battles hitters and wins much more often than he loses. It is the wins versus losses that make him a premier pitcher and earned him the huge contract.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Pitching to contact over SO's has long been my stance also Jid. That's what pitching is really all about.
    But I think Tom is simply showing that a decrease in velocity has corresponded to his ineffectiveness. It stems from pitching with a bad elbow.

    Dice was throwing 88 MPH in his last start. Then he was diagnosed with the partial tear. Loss of velocity is a good indicator of injury.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Of all the dealings Theo Epstein has had while he's been at the helm I can only think of two moves that had any sentimentality to it. One was offering Jason Varitek arbitration after the 2008 season. It was a sloppy wet $10M kiss but Jason got really bad advise from Boras. The other was trading Dave Roberts for Jay Payton so Roberts could get regular PT.

    In that light the only thing that matters is what is the best configuration of the 25 man roster. Once they signed Lackey last year, given the profiles and contracts, Wakefield was going to be a swing man spot starter. Coming out of ST this year there was little debate what Wake's role should be either. We probably would never know but I don't think Wake has ever gone in asked to be traded.

    And for their part the RS think the starting rotation depth is pretty important and think that Wake is better than the best healthy arm in Pawtucket at any moment. Because when Wake isn't starting outside of low leverage situations carying him requires the RS to effectively carry an 11 man pitching staff in the pitch count era. It isn't heart warming but it is a commitment of consequence to Wakefield.

    As far as Aceves I am sure he will handle it with dignity no matter what he thinks. We might get an 'I just work here" sound bite.

    I never really paid that much attention to his stats when he was signed. Having seen him work and his stats I just keep thinking that Cashman let the emotion over Aceves injury checkered 2010 get the best of him. The kid's WHIP has never been high, his SO/BB ratio is solid, his ERA is low and when he is involved in the decision it is always the win.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Don't agree with "commitment of consequence" to Wake. Not at all. Even beyond the starter insurance, the 12th man is supposed to eat innings and save arms. That's very important. Cutting 4 frames when a starter gets hammered affects the next couple of games.

    Being few teams endure a season using only 5 starters, the issue is not what the defined roles were in ST, it's here and now. Dice is gone and nobody really knows for how long.  If Aceves is pen bound, Wake could very well become the #4 starter, for those who must put labels on such packages.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Harness FWIW very few teams carry a "mop up guy" any more. The frequency with which teams are forced to use mulitple pitchers nightly far exceed the occasions where 6 to 7 innings need to be covered. But that is either here or there.

    As far as Dice K I am assuming he is done for 2011. My best guess is his personal reason to go to Japan is get a second opinion there and then he will get the third from Yocum in LA. Call me a skeptic but I think the RS are advising rest over surgery like they did with Schilling with one eye on the length of the contract. After all if he gets surgery now his ETA in the RS rotation is August 2012. If this was 2007 and the ETA was 2008 the RS might be more aggressive about surgery. When it all sorts out my bet is that he ends up under the knife.

    Labels matter little right now between 4 and 5. But come playoff time if you can get there it does. My sincere hope is that if Wake is the 4, it means he has strung 3/4 of a season together that rivals his first half of 2009. And not that he is pitching to his career numbers because it means Lackey is pitching below his and that just isn't the best scenario.

    The best scenario is Lackey comes back with a renewed burning in his belly, some tweaks in his mechanics and pitches like he is capable of. That's the RS best scenario in my opinion.


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Five-K, though I usually like your ideas, I'm with Boom on this one.  I don't even like your analogy much.  (Sorry.)  Lackey has been speeding in the breakdown lane even though he should know better while Aceves, the less experienced, is driving like a trained professional.  I feel like Lackey already owes us $475.  Your view is most probably what the RS will do, but I'm not sure it's right.  I'm not sure anyone could convince me right now that Aceves if left in there for the rest of the year wouldn't do just as well as Lackey.  Just look at what's happened so far!  These guys may be "backups" and we're "living on borrowed time" but these backups have just won four straight games--when is the last time Dice-K and Lackey did that?  I'm with Boom on this one, eschew all reasoning and logic, and go with the hot hands, the ones that have been winning in this surge.  And I do agree, don't rush Lackey--if he's down 4 or 5 miles per hour, there must be something wrong.  I don't doubt his competitive spirit.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II


     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Of all the dealings Theo Epstein has had while he's been at the helm I can only think of two moves that had any sentimentality to it. One was offering Jason Varitek arbitration after the 2008 season. It was a sloppy wet $10M kiss but Jason got really bad advise from Boras. The other was trading Dave Roberts for Jay Payton so Roberts could get regular PT.

    Not sure how much Theo knew about Schill's health after 2007, but I think some thought the $8M deal for 2008 was a bit sentimental. (I am not one.)
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Katz: I don't know of any team that doesn't protect themselves with an innings eater. Constant usage of set-up arms is the fast-lane to late-season blow-up.
    You don't use those guys in one-sided games - or those where starters implode.

    Nor am I looking down the playoff road in May. The team used 3 starters in the '09 PO's. Granted, they didn't need more, but Lester was scheduled to go game 4, if...

    The team will go to Lackey once he's ready. This I'd bet on. And it's also a good bet the decision (as to who goes to the pen) will be made for them come the time.
    Lackey is dealing with a personal hardship. And I think he'll rise to the challenge.

    On Dice, I refuse to write him off until the final determination as been made. Too many conflicting reports. I take it one day at a time, and try not to get too far ahead of myself.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Moon I agree Wake is looked at differently. That being said I remember him being streaky.  Here are his monthly ERAs:

    2011  5.6  3.5
    2010  5.4   5.9   4.5   7.2   2.5   4.2    9 
    2009  1.9   6.8   3.5   5.1   1.3   8.4
    2008  4.1   5.3   2.4   4.1   2.7   6.7 (16.9 PO)
    2007  2.6   4.1   6.0   5.5   2.5   8.8 (9.6  PO)

    I'd say he has been a decent #5/swing man but a bit frustrating because of the big swings in performance.

    There are very few pitchers who have consistent month to month ERAs. Even a great pitcher like Lester has ups and downs, true, not as extreme as Wake and Dice-K, but still...

    2010: 4.7, 1.8, 2.6, 3.6, 3.5, 3.8
    2009: 5.4, 5.9, 1.8, 2.6, 2.4, 2.5
    2008: 4.3, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.3, 2.1
    2007: 4.3, 6.5, 3.3

    Here's a look at Buch's monthly  consistency:
    2010: 2.2, 3.1, 1.8, 4.9, 1.0, 3.0
    2009: 3.5, 4.8, 4.0
    2008: 4.1, 8.6, 6.8, 11.0
    2007: 4.5, 0.5

    Here's a look at Beckett's monthly consistency:
    2010: 7.2, 7.4, 2.8, 6.0, 4.5
    2009: 7.2, 2.4, 1.5, 3.4, 5.0, 4.1
    2008: 4.1, 4.4, 2.4, 5.7, 5.8, 2.2
    2007: 2.5, 2.9, 4.5, 3.5, 2.9, 3.2
    2006: 4.5, 4.2, 5.1, 5.1, 6.4, 4.5

    Yes, Wake's lows were lower than these guys, but I'm sorry folks, I just don't see that much more "inconsistency" with Wake than with other picthers, especially when you figure he has been the 4th/5th/6th starter for most of his time here in Boston, and one would expect a little more inconsistency.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    On Dice, I refuse to write him off until the final determination as been made. Too many conflicting reports. I take it one day at a time, and try not to get too far ahead of myself.

    I agree, and I really hope his season is not done. We need all the quality arms we can get. The season is long and we've already used 18 pitchers and it's not even reached the first third of the season mark.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Well, NY lost tonight in 12 frames.
    Seattle-sleeping pill in extended-mode.

    Western teams are playing tough. The A's took two from the O's. Rays lost.
    I hope Buch is on tomorrow, because Josh faces Verlander in the night-cap. Justin is 49-22 at home. Tough pitcher.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from losmediasrojas. Show losmediasrojas's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The difficult part with Wake is detecting when he might be losing it.  A game could get away from him very quickly, and a reliever may not be ready to step in to stop the bleeding.  With most other pitchers, there are usually more signs like loss in velocity or inability to get a key pitch over the plate.  With Wake, I'm not sure anybody really knows.  He could look terrible in an early inning and brilliant the next as he has for many outings throughout the course of his career.  Sure, this is true for other pitchers but just not to the degree that it is for him.  So when critics talk about variability, they may be talking about variability from moment to moment in as much as variability from outing to outing.  This is what makes him uniquely difficult to manage, and most managers don't have the patience for it. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I disagree, I think many pitchers are cruising along, then BAM, they lose it in a second. No warning.

    I think Tito keeps Wake in too long sometimes.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tom, I saw your stats regarding Lackey's swings and misses and I can tell you with all due respect that that has nothing to do with whether or not a guy is a premier pitcher.

    We will just have to differ on this issue, it is a good topic.  IMO pitching to contact is a myth.  You have written that Lackey will be a premier starter again, I don't think that is likely.  All of his peripheral stats show he is in decline.  Roy Halladay is often sited for pitching to contact but he has had about 80% contact rate.  Halladay has amazing control Lackey is giving up more than double walks. Halladay leads the NL in BB rate and MLB in K/BB.


    Here is the list of 2011 Pitchers with the worst swinging strike %:

    Nova
    Penny
    Chatwood
    Vasquez
    Davis

    A sinkerballer like Wang had contact rates and swinging strikes% similar to what Lackey has done with Boston, but he had 20% higher GB rate. We looked at Palmer this winter he had an elite elite defense behind him and an amazing ability to strand runners in scoring position.

    As I have read and quoted, Lackey could alter his mechanics or develop a good cutter and be effective again, but the way the numbers are trending is ominous.

     ( 2005, '06,...,'11 )

    Swing and miss %

    10.6, 9.7, 8.9, 8.6, 8.6, 7.0, 6.2

    Contact %:

    76.5, 79.4, 80.3, 81.5, 80.3, 83.7, 84.8





     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Yes, Wake's lows were lower than these guys, but I'm sorry folks, I just don't see that much more "inconsistency"

    Mr Moon  I am sure you won't mind some debate on this one. I don't think the numbers you posted back up your argument, if anything the opposite.  Of course we should not expect the 5th starter to perform like something better though. I know I am wading into an emotive debate but I just looked up the numbers and made an observation. 

    I looked at a few other 5th starter/swingmen monthly ERAs. Granted I had trouble thinking of long tenured 5th starters.

    Sonnastine has been very consistent for 3 years with one exception.

    Joe Blanton has been fairly consistent not up and down month to month too much.

    My point is Wake has created the perception with his performance. He has been asked to perform without ideal planning, and he is an asset no doubt, especially considering the cost.  I say ride him until he falters, if he continues one of his hot streaks the Sox could even pull away in the East. I'd love to see it and to pass Clemens.
     

Share