A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Lackey shouldn't get mad, but I sure do.  In 2008, I think, Lowrie played a bunch of errorless games at SS, but his year he has 9 already, and that's a bunch.  These days his glove work looks downright casual.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    He never was even an average fielding SS due to short range issues, but the errorless (half) season fooled some posters. He is a decent fielding 2Bman and 3Bman, and adequate as a back-up SS, but with Scutaro's health and not-so-great fielding, we sure could use a great defensive SS even if just for late inning replacement. Iglesias fits the role, but should not sit on the bench that much. We are loaded at 2B and 3B, so Jed's role is, and always has been as a utility IF'er and very good bat vs LHPs (a high need on this team).

    With Scutaro's health in doubt, Lowrie's value is still high. Youk and Pedey have had health issues lately as well. Trading Jed would be a high gamble.

    Posters who have judged Jed based on a sporadic career interrupted by a bothersome wrist injury, a Mono illness, and now a sore shoulder are being short-sighted. All players have bad streaks. I'm not blaming this one on injury. I don't care if Jed is trying to do such. I know Jed can hit with some "pop" (mostly dbls) for a middle IF'er, he can get on base at a good clip for a middle IF'er, and he fills a need on this team. He's still on pace for over 50 extra base hits for 600 PAs, he's still batting .283 even after a horrific recent stretch.

    Jed is going to hit well again. He may never hit righties well, but if used correctly, he can be a big asset to this team.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Good to see Pedey on base 4 out of 6 times. Good to see VTek keep hittingin his limited role. Scutaro didn't waste any time lighting things up. Maybe all this run support will help Lackey not get so mad the next time someone makes an error or misplays a ball to let a run in.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Good to see him get around on a 94 MPH HIGH fastball and deposit it into the opposite-field stands. Hitting RH no less.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tell me!  Objectively..... Which of our farm hands could even hold a candle to Ells????

    In all that ranting incoherent postal work, you ask a question about baseball. It's the wrong question, but at least it's a question.

    And when you actually comment on baseball, you use a meaningless phrase "could even hold a candle". It's not about comparing Ellsbury to the best farm talent lefty OF profile, it's about comparing his future cost v. the cost of the farm hand and the cost, quality and fit of the player he's traded for.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Scutaro was a value mistake off a career high, but he has one quality that is very important in a MLB player. Anything short of an injury that leads management to make him stop playing, he's going to play. Not the most talented middle infielder (a 2nd baseman), but has a tremendous heart for playing the game. The Red Sox can easily decline his option and resign him as a UIF guy to a relatively cheap one year contract. They would be wise to consider.   

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I wouldn't call Scut a "mistake". Most FA's will be over-paid.
    Cam might better fit that billing.

    If Scut is deployed properly, he can be an asset, like anybody else on the 25-man roster. How much of an asset is debateable.

    I don't see him being re-signed at his age. Especially if Navarro shows his recent AAA form if/when given a chance.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I think the Sox medical staff has a read on Scutty's health outlook.

    My guess is the Sox pay the $1.5M buyout and he walks.

    12
    :$6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buyout)

    No way Marco takes the $3M option, since he can get Boston's $1.5 buyout and easily get more than $1.5 elsewhere. I don't see the Sox paying $6M for a SS who turns 37 shortly after the 2012 season. It will be Iglesias/Lowrie/Navarro in 2012 unless Theo tries to make another FA
    SS splash signing.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I'd really like to see Navarro at some point this year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    What about McCoy pitching the 9th for Toronto?
    Looked like the Real McCoy to me.
    3 up & 3 down...and he never broke 77 MPH.


    Foot in mouth


    I'm entertaining thoughts for a comeback:)
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I think we'll see him at some point.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I think the Sox medical staff has a read on Scutty's health outlook. My guess is the Sox pay the $1.5M buyout and he walks. 12 :$6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buyout) No way Marco takes the $3M option, since he can get Boston's $1.5 buyout and easily get more than $1.5 elsewhere. I don't see the Sox paying $6M for a SS who turns 37 shortly after the 2012 season. It will be Iglesias/Lowrie/Navarro in 2012 unless Theo tries to make another FA SS splash signing.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Do you think jose reyes is on theo's radar?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    With Theo and SSs, you never can tell, but I think not this season unless Scutty gets hurt and is out for the season.

    I could see Theo trading Iglesias and signing Reyes this winter. Theo loves SSs who can hit, even if sporadically.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Some more short sample eye openers:

    VTek is 7 for his last 20 (.350) with 2 HRs, a 2B, 4 BBs and 6 RBIs.
    VTek has a 1.012 OPS his last 12 games and a 1.182 OPS his last 5.

    Salty has a .956 OPS his last 14 games played.

    Our catchers have hit the ball hard the last month or so!

    Scutty is 8 for 20 (.400) since his return and 7 for 16 in his last 3 gms.

    Pedey is 6 for 9 with 2 BBs since his day off.

    Jed is 2 for his last 24 ABs with only 1 BB. He has a .605 OPS his last 19.

    Crawford his last 24 games: .309/.340/.574/.914

    Youk is 3 for his last 19 with no extra base hits and 3 BBs.

    AGon: last 11 gms: .386/.460/.750/1.210.

    Jacoby: last 24 games: .343/.404/.510/.913 (12 SB) & 1.220 OPS last 5.

    Papi the last 14 days: .439/.511/.927/1.437 (5 HRs, 15 RBIs & 5 BBs) and
      Papi on
    6/12/11: .325/.396/.615/1.011
    6/12/10: .251/.346/.525/.871
    6/12/09: .205/.299/.338/.627
    6/12/08: .252/.354/.486/.839 (missed June1st to July 24th)
    6/12/07: .340/.452/.609/1.061 (was at 1.013 on June 2nd)
    6/10/06: .256/.357/.538/.896 (went 4/7 on June 11th with 5 RBI)
    6/12/05: .298/.380/.574/.954
    6/12/04: .287/.344/.545/.890
    6/12/03: .311/.378/.515/.893

    Papi his last 365 days:
    .298/.388/.565/.952  36 HRs and 102 RBIs.

    Is this team hot or what?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/06/on-framing-pitches-30803" title="On Framing Pitches">On Framing Pitches

    By Moshe Mandel On June 12, 2011 · 3 Comments · In Statistical Analysis

    Max Marchi of THT posted a fantastic bit of www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-catchers-quantifying-the-framing-pitches-skill/">research this week that could go a long way towards quantifying one of the more difficult to measure elements of catcher defense:

    According to this analysis the top catchers can win a ballgame per season (even playing fewer than 100 games) only with the skill of framing pitches.

    If you think that’s a lot, I’m with you.

    Anyway, let’s look at that from a different perspective. Please re-read the last sentence of the previous section. The fact that umpires and catchers have a similar range of variation implies that playing with a receiver who is good at framing pitches is the equivalent of having a pitcher friendly umpire calling the game. Now, suppose you are allowed to have every game called by an average umpire when your team is at the plate and by the most pitcher-riendly umpire when your team is pitching. Does an extra win per season seem an acceptable effect of having such an advantage?

    [...]

    According to the analysis presented here, the best catchers at framing pitches can add something like one or two wins per season, which is the equivalent of trading www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez‘s 2010 bat (.270/.341/.506, 30 HR, 125 RBI, 19 runs above replacement) with Alex Rios’ lumber in the same year (.284/.334/.457, 11 HR, 45 RBI, nine runs above replacement).

    The number could even be a conservative estimate. In fact, as soon as a pitcher realizes his catcher gives him an edge on borderline pitches, he should immediately begin to exploit the advantage.

    If the magnitude of the framing effect measured in this study is confirmed, major league teams should not neglect this factor when they go hunting for a catcher in the market, especially those with pitching staffs that make their living on the black.

    Marchi includes a spreadsheet that shows www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martiru01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Russell Martin to be one of the best catchers in baseball at framing pitches, while Frankie Cervelli comes in at above average and www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/posadjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jorge Posada sits at about the average line.

    I really do not have a ton to add here, but I will note that the sizable nature of the effect illustrates that any analysis of catcher defense at this point is, at best, a rough estimate. If something such as framing pitches can create a value gap of 2-3 wins between two catchers, how can we really evaluate relative value without measuring every element that goes into the catching position? The best we can do is measure those skills that are more easily quantifiable and roughly estimate the rest based on scouting reports, while waiting for people like Marchi to help read the tea leaves that the data provides us in the murkier areas.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Tell me!  Objectively..... Which of our farm hands could even hold a candle to Ells???? In all that ranting incoherent postal work, you ask a question about baseball. It's the wrong question, but at least it's a question. And when you actually comment on baseball, you use a meaningless phrase "could even hold a candle". It's not about comparing Ellsbury to the best farm talent lefty OF profile, it's about comparing his future cost v. the cost of the farm hand and the cost, quality and fit of the player he's traded for.  
    Posted by betterredthandead[/QUOTE]

    Ok.....  But you didn't tell me WHO "compares to Ells with respect to future cost, or WHO has the quality & fit?"

    Do you actually think your rambling supports your basic premise that Ells is a sub par player???  Are you truly that clueless?  The present & future VALUE of Ells is so self evident that a perfunctory defense of his clearly emerging ALL STAR play is demeaning to anyone who knows baseball.  Irrespective of his "future value," IS ELLS. a VALUE PLAYER FOR THE SOX NOW & FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS IF WE DECIDE TO KEEP HIM???  That was a strictly rhetorical question, as your rejoinder would no doubt be a complete NON SEQUITUR!

    SoldRed / bettered,  

    It's absolutely hysterical watching you & your desperate attempts to prop up your worthless predictions about Ells!  LOL :)  He proves you SO WRONG every day, & it's killing you!!!!  It's almost sad to see a guy with decent baseball knowledge reduced to rooting against so many RS players simply to cover your obviously failed predictions.  No need to be so thin skinned.  It's OK to be wrong!  It doesn't make you any less of a man, or any less of a baseball prognosticator.  What does clearly make you less of a man, is to be so insecure as to be completely incapable of admitting when you are so clearly wrong!!!!!
    THAT'S JUST PATHETIC!!!!


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Gotta love the .373 OBP thus far.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Those first 6 hitters all producing at a high rate is feeding this streak. Even if we have a bad pitching performance we can still beat most teams. We are putting numbers on the board in the 1st and then just continuing to extend the lead. The best way to win! 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Regarding Scutaro, unless Iglesias starts turning it on I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox do pick up his option. Assuming that he is healthy. A Lowrie / Scutaro combo might well be a decent plan for next year also. 

    I agree that it probably doesn't happen but Iglesias may well not be ready and I'm not counting on Navarro for anything more than deep depth.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/06/on-framing-pitches-30803 " title="On Framing Pitches" /> On Framing Pitches By Moshe Mandel On June 12, 2011 · 3 Comments · In Statistical Analysis Max Marchi of THT posted a fantastic bit of www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-catchers-quantifying-the-framing-pitches-skill/ "> research this week that could go a long way towards quantifying one of the more difficult to measure elements of catcher defense: According to this analysis the top catchers can win a ballgame per season (even playing fewer than 100 games) only with the skill of framing pitches. If you think that’s a lot, I’m with you. Anyway, let’s look at that from a different perspective. Please re-read the last sentence of the previous section. The fact that umpires and catchers have a similar range of variation implies that playing with a receiver who is good at framing pitches is the equivalent of having a pitcher friendly umpire calling the game. Now, suppose you are allowed to have every game called by an average umpire when your team is at the plate and by the most pitcher-riendly umpire when your team is pitching. Does an extra win per season seem an acceptable effect of having such an advantage? [...] According to the analysis presented here, the best catchers at framing pitches can add something like one or two wins per season, which is the equivalent of trading www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank"> Alex Rodriguez ‘s 2010 bat (.270/.341/.506, 30 HR, 125 RBI, 19 runs above replacement) with Alex Rios’ lumber in the same year (.284/.334/.457, 11 HR, 45 RBI, nine runs above replacement). The number could even be a conservative estimate. In fact, as soon as a pitcher realizes his catcher gives him an edge on borderline pitches, he should immediately begin to exploit the advantage. If the magnitude of the framing effect measured in this study is confirmed, major league teams should not neglect this factor when they go hunting for a catcher in the market, especially those with pitching staffs that make their living on the black. Marchi includes a spreadsheet that shows www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martiru01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank"> Russell Martin to be one of the best catchers in baseball at framing pitches, while Frankie Cervelli comes in at above average and www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/posadjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank"> Jorge Posada sits at about the average line. I really do not have a ton to add here, but I will note that the sizable nature of the effect illustrates that any analysis of catcher defense at this point is, at best, a rough estimate. If

    something such as framing pitches can

    create a value gap of 2-3 wins between

    two catchers, how can we really



    evaluate relative value without

    measuring every element that goes into

    the catching position
    ? The best we can do is measure those skills that are more easily quantifiable and roughly estimate the rest based on scouting reports, while waiting for people like Marchi to help read the tea leaves that the data provides us in the murkier areas.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    Nice work, Tom.

    I draw this to the attention of those who minimize a catcher's relevance.

    Or to those who think catchers have nothing to do with pitching.
    Obviously, the author of this initial, ludicrous statement really doesn't think at all.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    catcher's relevance.

    It's more than just CERA.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tons more. CERA is just a branch off the Oak. A catcher's relevance is about approach & ability.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tons more. CERA is just a branch off the Oak. A catcher's relevance is about approach & ability.

    Yes, and more. Personality and compatability may also come into play to some extent. Plain old knowledge and preparedness and the ability and foresight to know when to adjust and how to adjust when things aren't going as planned.

    I'm getting ready for my road trip to Maine this week. I'm staying with my sister in Pittsburgh and seeing all three there, then catching 2 of 3 in Philly before heading north. I'll catch a few in Boston over the 7 weeks in New England. I'm really excited this year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Speaking of being prepared, did you hear Heidi talking about AGONE's extensive prep during the game today? His in-depth study of video is now being echoed by his team mates.
    Wonder if that has anything to do with this offensive surge?

    I do the same thing in the winter. The advent of video has changed the entire landscape.

    I hope you have a safe, wonderful trip, Moon. Sounds interesting. I saw a game at Three Rivers Stadium many years back. What a trip, taking a boat to the game.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Thanks.

    Last summer, I took a river cruise in Pittsburgh.

    I love the city.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Catcher's framing a pitch is one of the biggest factors of CERA. It's one of many factors, for example the ability to throw out runners is pretty significant also right. CERA is significant. It's just not as significant as is sometimes speculated. And one pitcher can be terrible catching one guy and terrific catching another.

    It is sad to see Exposito throwing out 47% of runners in Pawtucket this year but hitting only .223. What do we have to do to get a catcher to survive our farm system!

    Swihart is a very important sign. The biggest one this year IMO for the Sox.
     
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