A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I don't know about that . If this was true, the NL wouldn't have won so many games this yr in interleague play. (And I'm an AL fan, who always heard as a kid, "Who's the stronger league? The NL; why do they win the AS Game every yr? The AL is a joke". )
    Posted by nhsteven


    Yes, I vividly recall those days when the N.L. was a much better league. They had Mays and Aaron and an endless steam of HOF pitching.
    But the times have changed. And they haven't kept up.  The gap in the post steroid era is closing some what, but the only N.L. line-up worth a damn comes out of Philly.

    The RedSox finished 10-8 against the N.L. - without Crawford, Buchholz, and a minimized Beckett/Papi.
    How did NY fare against the N.L.?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Yes, I vividly recall those days when the N.L. was a much better league. They had Mays and Aaron and an endless steam of HOF pitching. But the times have changed. And they haven't kept up.  The gap in the post steroid era is closing some what, but the only N.L. line-up worth a damn comes out of Philly. The RedSox finished 10-8 against the N.L. - without Crawford, Buchholz, and a minimized Beckett/Papi. How did NY fare against the N.L.?
    Posted by harness


    13-6 i believe
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I actually thought it was better. Interesting to see how both leagues fared against eachother this time around. I know it was 22-22 at one point...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    With Lackey getting bombed, the Sox pitching is once again suspect.  Wakefield too hasn't looked very sharp.  Buchholz on the DL with no definite return date other than "after the all-star game."  Dice-K gone.  Aceves can fill in for Lackey or Wakefield, but not both, and Aceves himself hasn't been all that sharp lately.  Six games before the all-star break. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Max, you have a tendency to look short-term.
    The team has sufficient depth to keep them in the race until they get healthy. Any holes will be filled by 7/31.

    That's a long-term prognosis.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I actually thought it was better. Interesting to see how both leagues fared against eachother this time around. I know it was 22-22 at one point...
    Posted by harness


    I thought it was 14-4.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Yes, I vividly recall those days when the N.L. was a much better league. They had Mays and Aaron and an endless steam of HOF pitching. But the times have changed. And they haven't kept up.  The gap in the post steroid era is closing some what, but the only N.L. line-up worth a damn comes out of Philly. The RedSox finished 10-8 against the N.L. - without Crawford, Buchholz, and a minimized Beckett/Papi. How did NY fare against the N.L.?
    Posted by harness


    Actually, Pha's lineup isn't the same without Werth and a now over-the-hill Ibanez, but the pitching might be 2nd to None. What about Milwaukee, StL, Cin, Ariz & Colorado?  There's also pitching rich teams like SF (World Champs), Pitt, Atl, & Fla.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    What's Werth worth this year? My allusion was to hitting, Steve. NL pitching faces no DH and a pitcher 3 times a game. That said, there are some very good young arms, as well as some solid older ones.

    But the NL line-ups are weak.
    I agree that Philly's isn't what it was last year or years past, but I still say it's the best the N.L. has to offer. Toronto's line-up would rake over there.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Theo carried 5 outfielders for a reason, Moon . He knew the line-up was susceptible to lefties, so he had CAM/MAC as RH depth. I doubt Theo was blind to CC's splits. 

    I agree, except that Tito never will sit CC vs LHPs, except when he needs a normal day off, so what's the use of carrying 2 righties? In theory, it made sense, but not when you factor in Tito's paradigm obsessions.

    The problem was CAM. Now it's finding his replacement. 

    Yes, Cam and DMac did not thrive in the part-time role, sadly. Perhaps if just one of them got all the right-handed PAs that both got, that one might have found a groove easier.

    To draw an analogy, Yaz was a .244 career hitter vs. lefties. .692 OPS. Was he platooned? His managers wisely saw his overall value. CC can look pathetic against a mediocre LH pitcher for 2-3 AB's. Then maybe he gets a scratch hit or reaches on a FC. Close game. Steals 2nd. Scores on a bloop hit and ties the game. Not everything translates on paper.

    I disagree, over the long term, major "on paper" differentials do translate into more runs and more wins. Back in Yaz's day, BAs and OPS were much lower. There were not better options on the bench than Yaz's .692. If therer was a significantly better option than Yaz at that time, I'd have been for that guy playing.

    At the start of this year, I thought Cam (and even DMac) would hit lefties much better than CC: enough to offset his better D (than DMac) and better speed than both. As it has turned out, Cam and DMac have done poorly, but have still done better than CC vs lefties: much better. Still enough to say CC should sit vs most LH starters. 

    CC's career has been long enough to know for a near certainty, that he will continue to be sub .700 vs LHPs. Like I said before, I hope I am terribly wrong here. We'll see after a few more years.
    Posted by harness


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bleacherchat. Show Bleacherchat's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I was going to wait until the half way point to start the next chapter, but for some reason they closed Part II. Let's keep it real. Stay on topic: Sox and anything related to the Sox. Topics about to heat up: 1) RF: Drew, Reddick, Cam, DMac or trade? 2) SS: Always an issue. 3) C: Been quiet lately, but... 4) Starters 5) Releivers 6) Trade deadline
    Posted by moonslav59


    OH MOON KISS YOUR LOVER HARNESS, BEAT HARNESS, RUB HARNESS, PLEASE BITE ME SO I HAVE THE ENERGY TO KEEP POSTING. SWEETIE I LOVE YOOOOOOOOOOO
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bleacherchat. Show Bleacherchat's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I was going to wait until the half way point to start the next chapter, but for some reason they closed Part II. Let's keep it real. Stay on topic: Sox and anything related to the Sox. Topics about to heat up: 1) RF: Drew, Reddick, Cam, DMac or trade? 2) SS: Always an issue. 3) C: Been quiet lately, but... 4) Starters 5) Releivers 6) Trade deadline
    Posted by moonslav59


    OH PLEASE READ MY NEW POST ON REALISTIC VIEW ON 2011 BEFORE IT GETS DELETED AGAIN AND THE RAYS WONT GO AWAY BECAUSE I AM HARNESSES LOVER, FRIEND AND TWIN OF THE CAPTIVATING STATISTICAL GARBAGE WE DECEND ON OUR PEOPLE. 

    JOIN MY PEOPLE, MY CULT, MY WORSHIPERS AND YOU WILL SEE THE LIGHT
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Actually, Yaz is the perfect example of why you can't go with career numbers sometimes in evaluations. If you look at him year-by-year, he was up and down. He also played in the pitching era of the 1960 and he had two down years (.636 and .662) in years that should have been among his prime (1971 and 1972) when he had the wrist injury. His career numbers also were down because of his longevity. His OPS vs. LHP in 1979 when he turned 40 was .551 followed by .593, .292, .722 (hence the up and down) and .591. And if you look how he went up and down why it's dangerous to manage by one stat.  And it's worth nothign that Crawford had a .837 OPS against LHP in 2007. In 2006, he hit .288 and had a .776 OPS In 2004, he batted .295 and had a .764 OPS. So looking at career numbers don't make things cut and dry.
    Posted by royf19


    Moon, Roy posted this recently. As you can see, CC has hit lefties before, which is why going by career norms is not necessarily accurate.
    In the same fashion, Papi is hitting them this year.

    As for non-platooning players of his caliber, the only way it makes sense is if the alternative is over-whelming. In other words, the difference in productivity must outweigh removing other elements of CC's game by  staggering proportions.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Pity Lester had to leave the game. I find it interesting that Tito again paired Tek with Jon. Lester has spun shutout frames with Tek in his last two outings. In fact, dating back to last year, over 50%! of Lester's outings with Tek are shutdown performances.

    Beginning to look like Tek has Lester/Beckett.
    Salty gets Wake/Miller.
    Either catch Lackey.

    Hopefully, this will be protocol come playoff time.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Tek has been to me the team's biggest asset this season. Outstanding as a tandem with SaltandPepperMachiato.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The injuries are piling up again though guys. Lowrie, Buchholz, Youk, Scutaro, Crawford, Lester, Matsuzaka...etc. It's beginning to look like last year again. 

    I'm not seeing any big moves before the July break but maybe it is needed. I really don't see it though.

    One thing this team absolutely needed was for Buchholz, Beckett and Lester to stay in the rotation and be strong. We have a lot of starting pitching depth but we can't replace those guys.

    The Yanks are not going away. Granderson has been putting up monster numbers and sometimes even just one guy like that can carry a team's offense. They have over 20 more HR compared to the Sox.

    There is a great women's world cup game coming up this morning on ESPN. The US needs a win to avoid having to play Brazil next and the match up with Brazil is not good for the US. Marta's speed and skill could potentially expose our left back badly. In today's game, Rapinoe is taking O'Reilly's place due to the injury and Boxx is back in. There is some indication that Wambach will be out today, to be replaced by Alex Morgan potentially, the projected next big star in Women's soccer. I would think that they may go with Cheney up top though, and continue to use Morgan as a sub. Maybe go with Heath in the midfield or maybe even Lindsay again.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I would hope that they go with Alex Morgan today, at forward though, on today's WWC game. She's 22 years old and they need to get her some world cup experience. They need her to develop and contribute in the knockout stages. WC coach's almost always aren't willing to take a chance on youth but it is often better to play that young emerging player rather than the aging star.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Andrew Miller, who entered this season with two years and 132 days of MLB service, should be arbitration eligible after this season if he remains up with the parent club. However,  Cot's Baseball Contracts reports that the Red Sox have an unspecified club option for 2013. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html Does anyone have the details on the 2013 club option? FWIW, I think it's too early to extend Miller.
    Posted by hill55


    According to Sox Prospects, it's a $3mil club option.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Boom, what language is that you're speaking???Wink
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from FarmFan. Show FarmFan's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I was going to wait until the half way point to start the next chapter, but for some reason they closed Part II. Let's keep it real. Stay on topic: Sox and anything related to the Sox. Topics about to heat up: 1) RF: Drew, Reddick, Cam, DMac or trade? 2) SS: Always an issue. 3) C: Been quiet lately, but... 4) Starters 5) Releivers 6) Trade deadline
    Posted by moonslav59


    OH GOD, whats this your fifth post on this.  cant take a message from the MODS after they erased your last one? 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Nice to see the bats clicking - and no AGONE.
    Interesting to see Youk hitting 5th.

    I can't remember this much rain home/away in any given baseball season.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from bettersoftthanlaw. Show bettersoftthanlaw's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : OH GOD, whats this your fifth post on this.  cant take a message from the MODS after they erased your last one? 
    Posted by FarmFan

    This thread is merely for Moon and his pet harness to hear themselves talk. I've done my best to avoid this black hole of drivel and I reccommend that you do the same.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Isn't it interesting that Ellsbury is having a career year, exactly as projected by some of us, and his UZR/150 in CF this year is now a PLUS 15.8. Bringing his career total UZR/150 to a PLUS 8.4. He has had only one negative UZR/150 year, out of his 5 years in mlb now ( since 2007 ) but some here still think he is a subpar defensive OF. The data is beginning to become definitive. He appears to be a solid PLUS defender, even in CF.

    25 doubles so far, 10 HR. Extended out that is about 49 doubles and 20 HR for the year. Exactly as projected several years ago by many of us, with one or 2 extremely notable exceptions.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Another CERA article with insight:

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Boom, what language is that you're speaking???
    Posted by jidgef


    They lost today! I'm bummed. Next up though, USA vs Brazil next Sunday morning on ESPN. Huge game!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from canetime. Show canetime's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : This thread is merely for Moon and his pet harness to hear themselves talk. I've done my best to avoid this black hole of drivel and I reccommend that you do the same.
    Posted by bettersoftthanlaw


     reccommend you go and stay away!
     
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