A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Better hope we don't need late inning help.

    It's time for the bats to carry us.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Granite2000. Show Granite2000's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    When does the 'Realistic Look at 2012' thread start?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Hopefully not tonight!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : One man's projection is another man's opinion. Right Harness? I've been projecting Lavarnway as one of our top guys for years and he has consistently produced at every level, at a higher level than Reddick with a lot more pop. And Reddick gave us a Drew type year in 2011 at $13.5 mil less cost. I'm not one who thought Reddick had a bad year, for a young player still developing. There are no guarantees with Lavarnway, as there were no guarantees for Crawford, Lowell, Youk, Ortiz...etc. He is a factor. No one is guaranteeing his future but he is a solid bet given the consistency of his numbers at every level. He is a major factor in the equation going forward but that doesn't guarantee anything.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]I agree with the premise that Lavarnway barring injury will have an MLB career and that if his work as a catcher is deemed good enough it will likely be a notable career.

    As for Reddick, it is kind of a strange position to say a kid gave you the same year as a veteran that has hit the wall age wise. Reddick's sample set got large enough in MLB to expose all the things about his plate discipline that has had every scout concerned about him for the last three years.

    Lavarnway has emerged as one of the best few prospects in the RS organization. There is perhaps an undue optimism how quickly he would drop into the MLB roster and have major impact though. Tons of fans had Lars Anderson penciled in to the 2010 MLB roster and Iggy the 2012 starting SS. There is lots road from promise to fulfillment and Boston isn't the best place to rush kids to learn the fine points of their craft on the job while being critiqued by CHB, WEEI and this fan base IMHO.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Extended over 500 AB, Reddick would have had 14 HR, 36 doubles, 6 triples, .280 Average and fangraphs had him at a plus 20.1 defensively. He didn't have Drew's OBP but I bet anything he would have given us more RBI over the course of a year. Those are better numbers extended than we got from Drew this year or last.

    He's not Drew in his prime probably but I think people here are still not giving him a fair shot. He is a streaky guy. And he is a lot better defensively for us than he gets credit for.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

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    What stands out to me is Lavarnway with men on base in the minors and Lavarnway's consistency at every level, all the way down to the college level. This guy has a chance to be a very special hitter.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I agree with the premise that Lavarnway barring injury will have an MLB career and that if his work as a catcher is deemed good enough it will likely be a notable career. As for Reddick, it is kind of a strange position to say a kid gave you the same year as a veteran that has hit the wall age wise. Reddick's sample set got large enough in MLB to expose all the things about his plate discipline that has had every scout concerned about him for the last three years. Lavarnway has emerged as one of the best few prospects in the RS organization. There is perhaps an undue optimism how quickly he would drop into the MLB roster and have major impact though. Tons of fans had Lars Anderson penciled in to the 2010 MLB roster and Iggy the 2012 starting SS. There is lots road from promise to fulfillment and Boston isn't the best place to rush kids to learn the fine points of their craft on the job while being critiqued by CHB, WEEI and this fan base IMHO.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    I'm sure Sox management relies a lot on the scouts, but it ultimately comes down to how much faith Theo (and Tito) have in the kid. They believed in Pedey and it worked. They stuck with Pedey. Will they give Lavarnway a slot (C or DH) next year and let him run with it for a long time? That's the big question.

    If Lavarnway hits like we think he might, it would be a great plau to have huge output from the catcher's position, but catching has many aspects. I'd hate to see our staff suffer trying to let Lavarnway "work our the kinks". It makes more sense for him to DH, but I am not ready to pull the plug on Papi.I'm not sure if Theo is either.The last thuing that should happen is that Lavarnway sits on the bench for 40% or more of the games. If we keep Papi and let VTek walk, it might be hard to let him catch 120 games and DH 15.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from wherescreamingcomesfrom. Show wherescreamingcomesfrom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I agree. I want Papi back next year, hopefully on a one-year deal. I also start the season with Saltalamacchia and Tek behind the plate and Lavarnway at Pawtucket catching every day.
        If he's the DH in the majors we lose the chance to make him a catcher and the significant advantage of having one that hits.
        I would be very surprised if he's made the starting catcher out of spring training on the MLB club - that would be a huge gamble. And I don't want him backing up Saltalamacchia, again because if he's going to be a good catcher he needs to play every day.
        Start the year like you did this one with Salty/tek. Who knows how improved Saltalamacchia will be after his first full year as a starting catcher. Re-evaluate around the All-Star break. Maybe then tek goes and Lavarnway comes to catch 30% of games gradually increasing over the second half. Maybe not. We don't need to decide at the beginning of the season.

        But anyway, I don't want to talk to much about next year yet . . .
    Go Sox! 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not afraid to go out on a limb. Sometimes taking a risk is the least risky option. Lavarnway projects to be a much better hitter than Salty ever will be. His numbers in the minors were consistently excellent. The biggest difference between Salty/Tek and Lavarnway should be in OBP. The guy gets on base at a much higher percentage than either of them, or at least his numbers project that way.

    I want to win next year. Maybe Lavarnway can improve some more as a catcher, for sure, but I think he helps us win next year. The option of letting either one of the catchers go or letting Ortiz go ( my preference ) deserves strong consideration.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Lavarnway also provides real RH Pop, which finally gets the line-up balanced again.

    It was the game changer and addressed a year long problem that epstein needs to be fired for. Crawford was the most incompetent decision, second to Wakefield ceremonial tour. Red Sox are now boxed in because of Epstein mistakes. Instead of being stupid and paying arbitration 12 to 16M for Ellsbury, it should now be Crawford's new job to simply get on base and steal bases and play good defense. There isn't going to be any #3 slugging average on this contract, and it is time to take this mistake and accept it. Ellsbury stock will never be higher and any competent GM would see the career averages, be sceptical about API/no hgh testing, and recognize the reality of a need for a young star slugging RH OFer. With Crawford, Ellsbury is out of the long term picture by gm decision. Would be pretty simple to make a trade that works for both teams by swapping Ellsbury plus a mid tier prospect or blocked player or two to cover for any team that is unable to extend Ellsbury at end of 2 years. 

    Dbacks have cant afford balloon payments for J. Upton's final 2 years 2014 and 2015. Cost for Ellsbury and Upton for 2012 and 2013 will be about the same. Dbacks have Chris Young strong splits v. LP, so would be more balanced with Ellsbury. A trade fits both teams.

    I like Kemp better, but Upton is younger v. the extension that will need to be in place before any Kemp trade is finalized.

    McCutchen would require a 3 team deal and would be harder to match up.

    Most Red Sox fans will never embrace Crawford or Ellsbury's eventual replacement.

    Wakefield is already politicing for a ceremonial tour 2 year. Very important that he is not brought back. He was one of the causes of the early coast and caution and brief 6 man monte debacle. He also caused at least a loss or two during early season debacle when Aceves was squeezed off active roster to AAA.

    Varitek has been washed up for 2 years. Salty/Varitek was a huge mistake. Lavarnway, regardless of long term prospects, should have been retained after first call up and used more frequently behind plate.

    Varitek should not be resigned to anything more than a minor league contract. Ditto Wakefield.

    Hernandez should be signed as a one year deal FA catcher, and Lavarnway and Salty should battle it out in the spring for the MLB active roster spot for 2012. The loser would be parked in AAA. If Salty is out of options then unless Lavarnway is clearly proven sure bet to be a solid MLB catcher career, start Lavarway in AAA.

    Starting pitching injuries were no excuse for this team. If Wakefield had been cut loose and 2 veteran pitchers signed ie Bedard and harden et al, it would have resulted in more quality innings overall and an easy 93 to 95 win season. 

    Had VMart been retained with Salty as backup, subtract Wakefield and add two veteran pitchers on one year deals (3 to 5M) and this team wins the AL East.

    VMart is a top quality overall hitter who excels from right side that Esptein incompetently neglected.

    Important to fire incompetent Epstein and pitching approach bean counters and implement the needed changes to put out what should be AL East favorites. Fire bench coach and offer Tito a one year probation deal or hire new coach. Do not allow Tito to hire bench coach.

    Hire a new fitness director and go to arbitration on any groundless MLBPA member complaints about fitness regime.
     
    Aviles gets UIF job over Lowrie, who should be traded for first decent bench fit. Aviles isn't much, but he appears more fit and not anal retentive.

    Middlebrooks appears likely to be ready for any late season call-up to replace Youk at 3rd. Decision can be made at 2012 end of Middlebrooks is ready to start in 2013.

    Ortiz is near the end but should be resigned to a ~10M one year deal with a team option for year 2 at 5M and 1.5M buyout. (old Dh market is running about 5M a year, so that is simply a thank you golden parachute for Ortiz with some chance of recapturing base value if Ortiz is still capable for year 2 option making base down to 7.5M) Yankees will do nothing more than bluff with aging Dh cue line.   

    Youk should DH a litte more against the lefties Ortiz has problems with or if Ortiz is struggling v LP.

    CJ Wilson is a poor value and likely Yankee bidding vaue bust, and FA or trade quality proven top tier starting pitcher market does not exist. Red Sox should bluff on Sabathia if it appears he isn't going home to west coast. Because there is no value top tier quality starting pitching, Papelbon must be resigned. He will not get 2 years and 30M, so he'll end up with a market of about 12.5 for 3 years or 14 x 2 years.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Ortiz is near the end but should be resigned to a ~10M one year deal with a team option for year 2 at 5M and 1.5M buyout. (old Dh market is running about 5M a year, so that is simply a thank you golden parachute for Ortiz with some chance of recapturing base value if Ortiz is still capable for year 2 option making base down to 7.5M) Yankees will do nothing more than bluff with aging Dh cue line.   

    Funny! You called me a racist for suggesting we offer Papi $20M/2 with incentives. Now this.

    Not surprising coming from the biggest flip flopper since Bill Clinton.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    That is true I remember it.

    Looks like we go to the play-offs and now the catching question, the #3 and 4 starters, and JD Drew/Reddick all become hot topics.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Burrito, you just gained a ton of respect from me. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I'm sure Sox management relies a lot on the scouts, but it ultimately comes down to how much faith Theo (and Tito) have in the kid. They believed in Pedey and it worked. They stuck with Pedey. Will they give Lavarnway a slot (C or DH) next year and let him run with it for a long time? That's the big question. If Lavarnway hits like we think he might, it would be a great plau to have huge output from the catcher's position, but catching has many aspects. I'd hate to see our staff suffer trying to let Lavarnway "work our the kinks". It makes more sense for him to DH, but I am not ready to pull the plug on Papi.I'm not sure if Theo is either.The last thuing that should happen is that Lavarnway sits on the bench for 40% or more of the games. If we keep Papi and let VTek walk, it might be hard to let him catch 120 games and DH 15.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]All valid. But I fear that the last place to learn to C is in MLB at DH. Lavarnway's greatest value positonal would be as a hitting catcher. Are the RS committed to a true two track tact of win now - win tomorrow?

    The difference with Pedey was he had a lot more time in AAA and they did not make him a SS.

    It is possible they will just go for it. This club badly needs some lower salary production.

    As I write this the team that won't go away just made the score 6-7 after trailing 0-7.

    You have to take your hats off to the Rays they are a game bunch.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : One man's projection is another man's opinion. Right Harness? I've been projecting Lavarnway as one of our top guys for years and he has consistently produced at every level, at a higher level than Reddick with a lot more pop. And Reddick gave us a Drew type year in 2011 at $13.5 mil less cost. I'm not one who thought Reddick had a bad year, for a young player still developing. There are no guarantees with Lavarnway, as there were no guarantees for Crawford, Lowell, Youk, Ortiz...etc. He is a factor. No one is guaranteeing his future but he is a solid bet given the consistency of his numbers at every level. He is a major factor in the equation going forward but that doesn't guarantee anything.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]


    I don't see a player with less than 40 M.L. AB's as a major factor going anywhere.
    He's a prospect. Period. A prospect with good minor league numbers.
    So is Brandon Moss. The Pirates thought of him in the same light. Otherwise, they cut Bay loose in a different deal. Moss has tanked in the majors.

    Chris Carter put up solid numbers in the minors.
    That's where he lives.

    You liked Rizzo. He was exposed in no time...so far.
    You saw Nava as a 4th outfielder. He may never see another M. L. pitch.
    My point is, minor league production is just that. How it transfers to the Majors depends on skill-level and mental toughness.

    Lavernway has showed me more behind the plate than I expected. But his swing is big and could easily be exposed. He's a mistakes hitter at this point in the Big Show.

    On Reddick, I agree with you there. I liked him since '09 and believe he has a potentially high ceiling. He has shown enough this year to keep the FO from spending more on this outfield. Giving up on him in a panic move could prove to be costly.

    Re-signing Papi is a major factor going forward, as his production will be very difficult to replace.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : All valid. But I fear that the last place to learn to C is in MLB at DH. Lavarnway's greatest value positonal would be as a hitting catcher. Are the RS committed to a true two track tact of win now - win tomorrow? The difference with Pedey was he had a lot more time in AAA and they did not make him a SS. It is possible they will just go for it. This club badly needs some lower salary production. As I write this the team that won't go away just made the score 6-7 after trailing 0-7. You have to take your hats off to the Rays they are a game bunch.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Update: Make that 7-7. Unbelievable.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    They could end up with 92 wins (in a 163 game season)!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Update: Make that 7-7. Unbelievable.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

     Even I'm suspicious. Let's not forget TB DOES have gamers, and their season was on the line. Still .... there could be an investigation.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : All valid. But I fear that the last place to learn to C is in MLB at DH. Lavarnway's greatest value positonal would be as a hitting catcher. 

    I agree, and that is one reason I was all for trying to get Mauer if he became a FA. The comparative value of a great hitting catcher vs his peers is much higher than other positions, except for maybe SS.

    Are the RS committed to a true two track tact of win now - win tomorrow? The difference with Pedey was he had a lot more time in AAA and they did not make him a SS. It is possible they will just go for it. This club badly needs some lower salary production. 

    I agree, again, and am certain that Theo will choose one or two slots to fill with inexpensive youth: C (Lavarnway/Salty), DH (Lavarnway or Youk and fill 3B with Middlebrooks/Aviles/Lowrie), RF (Reddick/Kalish/Cheap RH'd platoon or DMac), SP (Weiland/Doubront/Tazawa), or Closer (Bard).

    As I write this the team that won't go away just made the score 6-7 after trailing 0-7. You have to take your hats off to the Rays they are a game bunch.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Somehow softy will twist this into him being right and me being wrong.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Somehow softy will twist this into him being right and me being wrong.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Yup. After 162 games and 9 innings of 162nd still int it, isn't not going away.

    And Ellsbury doesn't have any power and is just an "NL profile."
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    He's already tried to say the "not going away" means winning the WS. We all know that the expression means that the team hangs around in the thick of the playoff race to or close to the very end. They may or may not make it, but the still hung around.

    That particulars were discussed at great length. I specifically said I did not think TB was as good as last year and would not win as much as 2010. My point was that they invariably (of late) have been able to replace departing stars with capable prospects or role players and still had a great young and experienced starting rotation. They would win between 90-92 games. They've clinched that range.

    My second point of the "not going away" was that I felt this year's WC would need less wins. I projected 92-94 wins. It was these two ranges together that led to my projection of a close race involving TB. (Maybe tied-maybe 4 back if following my projections strictly to the ranges.) I was wrong about who that WC team would be to contend with TB. I thought it would be the Yanks or another divisional team, but the fact remains, TB stuck around to the bitter end... and possibly to the very end: heaven forbid!

    "TB will finish a distant third."
    "TB starters will wilt in the dog days of summer."
    "TB will fade away"
    "90% odds means you have gone away."
    "The Marlins are currently the best model for small market management."
    "Matt Holliday is not an elite hitter."
    "VMart is an elite hitter."
    "Sell Jake high"
    "Scutaro will decline from his career norm after his career year in Toronto"
    "Cameron should be the starting CF this year."
    "Ellsbury should be the 4th OF'er."
    "Ellsbury will hit for more power in LF over CF."
    "Cameron should bat 1st, and Jake 9th (if he plays)."
    "BHall should be our sub this year."
    "Lackey was overpaid by a year, but a necesity."
    "Wake will get injured this year."
    "Beckett is fat and should not have been extended."
    "AGon is a 50-50 chance of being traded this winter" (Fall '10)
    "AGon will be traded for Jake and Jed" (Who else?)
    "AGon will not sign in April, but will test the FA waters."
    "Youkilis at 3B is less likely to get hurt than at 1B."
    "Wheeler was a great signing."
    "VTek's winning record and getting the best out of the staff is voodoo."
    "Drew will rebound from a poor 2010 season."
    "We will miss VMart's power."
    "VMart is a top tier offensive 1Bman in MLB" (Later flipped to AL)
    "Salty will fail."
    "Vtek should have retired."

    Please feel free to add your own rememberances. 

    I projected about an 0h for 65 streak for softy since the end of 2010's season. It could be much higher if tom uk brings back some oldsaved memories.



     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    Unreal ending!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

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    It is only fitting that the RS season should end with Crawford not being able to snow cone and drop a sinker liner in front of him.

    I think the board will probably implode now. But somebody surely will figure out how Francona lost this game?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Spot on, katz.

    WOW!

    What a season ending!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]He's already tried to say the "not going away" means winning the WS. We all know that the expression means that the team hangs around in the thick of the playoff race to or close to the very end. They may or may not make it, but the still hung around. That particulars were discussed at great length. I specifically said I did not think TB was as good as last year and would not win as much as 2010. My point was that they invariably (of late) have been able to replace departing stars with capable prospects or role players and still had a great young and experienced starting rotation. They would win between 90-92 games. They've clinched that range. My second point of the "not going away" was that I felt this year's WC would need less wins. I projected 92-94 wins. It was these two ranges together that led to my projection of a close race involving TB. (Maybe tied-maybe 4 back if following my projections strictly to the ranges.) I was wrong about who that WC team would be to contend with TB. I thought it would be the Yanks or another divisional team, but the fact remains, TB stuck around to the bitter end... and possibly to the very end: heaven forbid! "TB will finish a distant third." "TB starters will wilt in the dog days of summer." "TB will fade away" "90% odds means you have gone away." "The Marlins are currently the best model for small market management." "Matt Holliday is not an elite hitter." "VMart is an elite hitter." "Sell Jake high" "Scutaro will decline from his career norm after his career year in Toronto" "Cameron should be the starting CF this year." "Ellsbury should be the 4th OF'er." "Ellsbury will hit for more power in LF over CF." "Cameron should bat 1st, and Jake 9th (if he plays)." "BHall should be our sub this year." "Lackey was overpaid by a year, but a necesity." "Wake will get injured this year." "Beckett is fat and should not have been extended." "AGon is a 50-50 chance of being traded this winter" (Fall '10) "AGon will be traded for Jake and Jed" (Who else?) "AGon will not sign in April, but will test the FA waters." "Youkilis at 3B is less likely to get hurt than at 1B." "Wheeler was a great signing." "VTek's winning record and getting the best out of the staff is voodoo." "Drew will rebound from a poor 2010 season." "We will miss VMart's power." "VMart is a top tier offensive 1Bman in MLB" (Later flipped to AL) "Salty will fail." "Vtek should have retired." Please feel free to add your own rememberances.  I projected about an 0h for 65 streak for softy since the end of 2010's season. It could be much higher if tom uk brings back some oldsaved memories.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Out of frustration with Paps, and Proctor & Gamble now facing the Rays, I will.
    He said Jake's season was the result of AGONE.
    Jake is getting "43% more fat city meatballs".

    My favorite though is how he accused you of changing his Lugo post. That one  stands with the idiotic accusation by Crazy the loon that you erased all UR posts on his thread.
     

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