A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Much of the approach IMHO in terms of in game tactics and line-up structure would remain the same if Epstein is still the GM. It would take a sea change on Yawkey Way for the RS to abandon many of the tactical values which run for dev league to MLB. The disdain of sacrafice bunts, LH-RH-LH line-ups, deep use of splits all seem to be what uels so many Tito bashers and I can't imagine this team moving on from that because they built a pitching staff that had so many injuries and disppointments in 2011. I agree Tito will be hard to replace. It will take extraordinary organizational patience not to feed the masses the red meat they crave. Maybe it will be like it was after 2006 and Bogar and Young will go down as a appetizer for a blood thirsty public like Papa Jack and Wallace went down after 2006. Personally I think Epstein might own more of the "blame" but it is rare to see a franchise blow up a FO and retain the field manager indeed. And Henry probably still has a lot respect for Epstein, though I wonder how Larry Lucchino is playing this behind closed doors.
    Posted by fivekatz


    Yeah, I was thinking the same, but I didn't want to fuel 30 threads on "Fire inEpstein". I do think there are problems that have gone unattended. If it's due to inability to recognize them, then let the chips fall accordingly.

    Theo took the job at age 28 and initially alienated many baseball people around him. (Personally, I wasn't crazy about a GM who never played the game).
    The FO lost some good minds, and some on-field coaches were hired/retained for the wrong reasons IMO.

    Accountability is second to addressing issues that lead up to a monumental collapse. I think Henry has more character than to look for scapegoats first.
    We'll see.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    So, is Lavarnway starting tomorrow? When a slugger is hot, I say keep playing him.

    He's benched hot players all year long.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I don't think the only options were Werth or CC. (I too thought Werth was a better fit.) Yes, Dunn, Ordonez and most other LF'er types flopped badly, but the longterm and short term cost would have been way way less, and maybe allowed us to get 2 pitchers at the break not one injury-riddled diceroll. In hindsight, Lance Berkman might have been the big steal had we gone that way.  I understand the view of OF need. I was for going after Holliday as a preemptive move, however, we did have Ellsbury and Cameron returning from injury, and Kalish was high on many prospect lists. I think a Josh Willingham or deJesus could have been gotten for much cheaper and actually done better. Thanks for clarifying your earlier position. When you responded here, it reminded me of your whole position.
    Posted by moonslav59
    Moon not sure how Holliday was in play for 2011, so I am not getting that. I am sure there is something I am missing?

    Yes in hindsight Willingham who has been an OBP bust in 2011 or Dejesus would have been better bridges while Kalish and the kids matured. But I think the RS were hoping to fill one OF spot in FA in 2011 for a number of years and that one of the kids would have emerged as a 2012 OFer. 

    But that "bridge" word sure took a beating in Boston after 2010 and it would have taken great organizational discipline to let VMart walk, replacing him with Salty and getting a bridge in the OF with the tarnished Ellsbury and aging Drew.

    But until they did sign Crawford, I thought they would bridge and take the heat before paying Crawford the $90M-$100M the media speculated he'd get. There must have been some pretty fascinating rationalizations internally as they got to a place where they made that commitment.

    I know CC is a worn out topic but I guess while I always try to take my RS rooting in stride, the quality of his play just has become my annoyance, though I know that he is not the reason for collapse any more than he made any real contributions to the great months of baseball we saw sandwiched between the sputtering start and the collapse.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    So, is Lavarnway starting tomorrow? When a slugger is hot, I say keep playing him. He's benched hot players all year long.
    Posted by moonslav59
    He hasn't played one game for the entire season all year either.

    A lot of stuff will go into that assessment. Both the HRs were dead down the middle.

    I doubt Lavarnway is going to see too many fastballs tomorrow and they will try and stretch the KZone. But if they think Tek and Salty would play at 80% or so there is a strong chance they will go to well.

    Lowrie hit in clean-up tonight IMO based on a hot night the night before and his sitorical splits versus LH. Heck, Francona is pulling at straws at this point as would any of us here given the way this club has played in September.

    I can see that Lavarnway is fast joining the long line of instant RS future HOfers. Why not I guess. Any port in a storm I suppose. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I was just asking if he would get a start tomorrow, after hitting 2 HR today for 4 RBI, throwing out a runner and making a great play on that slow grounder to first. That was the best game we have gotten from a catcher all year long. I say play him.

    I think Reddick had a good year. Good pop. Decent average. Some great plays. For $400,000. He has a good shot of being our RF next year IMO.

    Lavarnway looks like the best prospect we've had since Ellsbury. I'd play him. He injected a lot of life into this team. We should roll the dice with him. We have little to lose considering what we have seen recently with the other catching options. This team needs some sort of spark plug.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Moon not sure how Holliday was in play for 2011, so I am not getting that. I am sure there is something I am missing?

    I meant by getting him in the winter of 2009-10. That's what I meant by "pre-empting" the year we needed someone by one year. Actually signing Holliday instead of Cameron would have lessened the overall cost in theory by $15M (from maybe $125M/7 to about $110M/7 overall.) That would have been $30M less than CC, but for an older, supposedly worse fielder.

    Yes in hindsight Willingham who has been an OBP bust in 2011 or Dejesus would have been better bridges while Kalish and the kids matured. But I think the RS were hoping to fill one OF spot in FA in 2011 for a number of years and that one of the kids would have emerged as a 2012 OFer.  

    But that "bridge" word sure took a beating in Boston after 2010 and it would have taken great organizational discipline to let VMart walk, replacing him with Salty and getting a bridge in the OF with the tarnished Ellsbury and aging Drew. 

    Not signing CC, may have changed those plans. We could have afforded VMart and much much more had we gotten one of the two guys I listed (or someone else) instead of CC.

    But until they did sign Crawford, I thought they would bridge and take the heat before paying Crawford the $90M-$100M the media speculated he'd get. There must have been some pretty fascinating rationalizations internally as they got to a place where they made that commitment.

    I'll never understand it. He never has had a good OBP, and this team values that highly. Couple that with serious issues vs LHPs, and I just never got the fascination at all.

    I know CC is a worn out topic but I guess while I always try to take my RS rooting in stride, the quality of his play just has become my annoyance, though I know that he is not the reason for collapse any more than he made any real contributions to the great months of baseball we saw sandwiched between the sputtering start and the collapse. 

    There are many players and administrators who share the "blame" this year.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Maybe he slots as one of our catchers, instead of our DH. I thought he was fine out there.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Boom, he needs to play nearly everyday at age 23. If Papi is back next year, it will be tough to expect him to catch 120-130 games and maybe DH 10-20.

    I do agree, there's too much potential to keep him down much longer.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The heck with it. Play him at the mlb level. The guy can help us right now. Look at his AB. The guy is ready for mlb at bats. He has a great approach. He has a middle of the order type bat and he can catch acceptably. 

    Salty and Tek had some decent pop but it looks like Lavarnway is a step up offensively, even in his rookie year. I'd throw him out there.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Gentlemen, I think Lavarnway should start tomorrow.  A hot player who is injury free trumps an injured player.  I don't think his defense hurt us, but that nubber to the mound didn't make anyone look too good.  At least he got an out.  I didn't think the pitcher went to the ball in a very strong way and when Lavy went to the ball, did anyone cover home?  I was surprised to see Lowrie batting cleanup tonight.  Frankly I don't get that.  I have a metaphor for how this team is playing.  I think the pitching has slowly been strangling the club until the oxygen level is so low, they are all playing with no confidence, a certain confused malaise.  I agree with Katz that Tito is not the problem.  I think we lack a certain cockiness-arrogance-I want to kick yourbutt attitude right now.  I know Pedey has it, I know Youk either has it or some I-don't-want-to-lose attitude that looks like it, but we don't have him and I think we really miss what he brings when healthy.  We look great in scoring 8 runs, but not great in giving up 7.  I was agonizing when we had the bases loaded but couldn't get the needed hit to drive in runs.  This is going to be an interesting off season--as usual.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    The heck with it. Play him at the mlb level. The guy can help us right now. Look at his AB. The guy is ready for mlb at bats. He has a great approach. He has a middle of the order type bat and he can catch acceptably.  

    There's no way to know this, but we may just find out.

    Salty and Tek had some decent pop but it looks like Lavarnway is a step up offensively, even in his rookie year. I'd throw him out there.

    125 games?

    That's tough.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    " If the Rays win out they will have 91 wins, or exactly what Moon projected (I was at 92 ). We are tied for the wild card right now.

    By any definition, the Rays are "in it to the end". Guys like you are such a pain in the rear. Either just admit you got it wrong or say nothing, don't lie and distort."

    An incisive critique of how "lesspaul" was way off on Tampa Bay, and there's no shame in that, just admit it. Softy has been wrong about some things and right about others, just like all of us. Yes, he is mostly even right about Wakefield aside from the relentless trolling and childish name calling. Time to leave narcissism and cynical political jabs behind.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    To be completely honest about it, was the Tek / Salty experiment all that successful? The pitching was awful. Their defense was not strong. Their offense was 10th, in a hitters park. I think an objective assessment is that we may as well roll the dice with Salty/Lavarnway and I think Lavarnway is the probable starter. 

    As Katz would say, just my take.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    32 dingers in 435 AB in AA and AAA. Solid average, ops and obp. His defense was acceptable. Just needs to call games. I think we would be a better team in 2012 with Lavarnway on the 25 man roster.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    As far back as July there were signs that the team was playing to its flaws. A league leading offense was the only thing that saved Boston this summer as the pitching essentially has been terrible all year.

    Lester and Beckett were not even going 6+ in the summer, Aceves was far too over-worked, Wake took weeks just to win his 200th, and Lackey was throwing poorly and copping attitude.  Though Beckett cannot be blamed for having the stomach flu as soon as he missed those two summer starts I got nervous as now the entire staff was bleeding red.

    Offensively we recognized by August that AGon was not going to hit 100 homers, that Youk was hurting, and that Crawford was in the midst of a season long slump; all the while we continued to win. People believed Reddick would save us and that Tek would actually continue to be part of a wining defensive combo - his bat and ability to play has been MIA for a month. JD Drew played (or didn't play) exactly as most of us might have guessed as far back as 2008.

    All of these things were happening while we were in first place.....

    Some were fooled in July enough to make statements like "Lackey really turning it around," and "Crawford ready to do some damage."

    I started a thread the 1st week of August questioning the management of the staff and the fact the pitchers even if allowed seemed incapable of going the distance.

    As luck (bad luck) would have it all of the underlying issues came to the forefront in September and this is why we are where we are.

    Tomorrow is D-Day (no offense military veterans I mean this light heartedly).
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    To be completely honest about it, was the Tek / Salty experiment all that successful? The pitching was awful. Their defense was not strong. Their offense was 10th, in a hitters park. I think an objective assessment is that we may as well roll the dice with Salty/Lavarnway and I think Lavarnway is the probable starter.  As Katz would say, just my take.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    Well, from an offensive standpoint, they have combined for AGONE-number dingers and a competitive OPS. Defensively, they both have physical drawbacks.
    As for the pitching, Tek will do much better in this area, so maybe it balances out some,given the uneven tandem. Hard to say what another FT catcher would have done with this staff.

    This year, I do believe that the poor Sept. pitching goes beyond a catcher's relevance.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We have gotten decent pop out of our catchers but we have an OBP of around .295 from them also and an average around .230. Imagine a guy who projects for the same pop, a .260 average and an obp closer to .335 in fewer AB. That's what Lavarnway offers IMO in the first year.

    Lavarnway has hit consistently at every level and if anything is trending up. He may be the best hitting catcher prospect we've ever had. His swing is taylored for Fenway. He is quickly becoming a major factor on this team going forward.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    We have gotten decent pop out of our catchers but we have an OBP of around .295 from them also and an average around .230. Imagine a guy who projects for the same pop, a .260 average and an obp closer to .335 in fewer AB. That's what Lavarnway offers IMO in the first year. Lavarnway has hit consistently at every level and if anything is trending up. He may be the best hitting catcher prospect we've ever had. His swing is taylored for Fenway. He is quickly becoming a major factor on this team going forward.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    Sorry Boom, but one heroic game doesn't qualify as "a major factor going forward". He could tank in his next one and draw nothing but negativity.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Sorry Boom , but one heroic game doesn't qualify as "a major factor going forward". He could tank in his next one and draw nothing but negativity.
    Posted by harness


    All to true, we were ready to give Reddick Dewey's old glove and uniform number in the summer.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : All to true, we were ready to give Reddick Dewey's old glove and uniform number in the summer.
    Posted by BurritoT

    Not everyone.

    Theo has a lot of serious decisions to make this winter (assuming he is still here).

    Who to keep and who to let walk.

    What prospects and kids to allow a FT role or major role.

    The staff- starters and relievers.

    Tito- stay or go?

    We thought last year was a big changeover and major decision offseason, this next one is twice as important.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Sorry Boom , but one heroic game doesn't qualify as "a major factor going forward". He could tank in his next one and draw nothing but negativity.
    Posted by harness

    One man's projection is another man's opinion. Right Harness? I've been projecting Lavarnway as one of our top guys for years and he has consistently produced at every level, at a higher level than Reddick with a lot more pop. And Reddick gave us a Drew type year in 2011 at $13.5 mil less cost. I'm not one who thought Reddick had a bad year, for a young player still developing.

    There are no guarantees with Lavarnway, as there were no guarantees for Crawford, Lowell, Youk, Ortiz...etc. He is a factor. No one is guaranteeing his future but he is a solid bet given the consistency of his numbers at every level. He is a major factor in the equation going forward but that doesn't guarantee anything.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : One man's projection is another man's opinion. Right Harness? I've been projecting Lavarnway as one of our top guys for years and he has consistently produced at every level, at a higher level than Reddick with a lot more pop. And Reddick gave us a Drew type year in 2011 at $13.5 mil less cost. I'm not one who thought Reddick had a bad year, for a young player still developing. There are no guarantees with Lavarnway, as there were no guarantees for Crawford, Lowell, Youk, Ortiz...etc. He is a factor. No one is guaranteeing his future but he is a solid bet given the consistency of his numbers at every level. He is a major factor in the equation going forward but that doesn't guarantee anything.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

      Chances are Boomer, you're right. Minor league production is more likely transferable to MLB than not. I once read where Carlton Fisk got better in MLB,
    because the pitchers throw more pitches around the plate. Wade Boggs hit .318 in the minors, and .328 in the show, so no surprise really. Lavarnway also provides real RH Pop, which finally gets the line-up balanced again.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Last regular season game tonight. Who is Boston pitching? I think Lester on 3 days rest, but who is coming out of the pen. Aceves threw over 30 pitches and Bard and Paps both through a very intense 25 and 28 pitches respectively.
     
    How is this going to play out?

    E Bedard3.153336184-483.62
    A Aceves
    (W, 10-2)
    3.231101136-272.63
    D Bard1.032201025-183.38
    J Papelbon
    (S, 31)
    1.021100028-212.69
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Good question... imagine the season coming down to Atchison, Albers and Morales... Lavarnway, DMac, Aviles...
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    It has to be all hands on deck which then puts additional pressure on them. I liked the way Morales pitched Sunday vs the Yanks. He showed me something there. I think Bard is wiped out and I don't know how much more of a load Paps can carry.
     
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