A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I didn't say I was leaving.

    Ummm. What does "Good-bye everyone IF this is my last post..." supposed to imply?


    You strongly implied that you wanted me banned

    You are a liar. I never said or implied I wanted you banned. I said it was a possibility if the remark resurfaced. Nobody I can recall ever got away with a death wish on this board until that remark. The Mods don't catch everything, and I think this thread is very lightly watched, it at all.
    If it occurs, I'm sure I'll be the one to blame.


    and God knows you are best buds with Dottie.

    So glad you don't make "groundless accusations".

    ...Along with lots of supporting data which you just refuse to acknowledge. And BTW, take your catcher relevance thread and shove it. I've seen plenty of data on CERA. You are not Bill James ok. I don't have to waste more time disputing your conclusions.

    How do you know what I refuse to acknowledge? You keep running every time I mention where this has all been debated.
    The "Shove it" statement shows you to be the child you are.

    With the exception of Moon, weare all sick of the constant CERA drumbeat. Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Again with the "WE".
    First you cry when no one would come to your rescue with EX-P
    (10 pages).
    Now you again speak for others.  You seem to me to be quite alone.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I wish I had popcorn for this, maybe a big fountain Pepsi with extra ice... the Pepsi here in Cambodia isn't the same and the ice can make you sick - ratts (and there is plenty of those around.)
    Posted by BurritoT



    One "t" . And I alluded to this problem where you live.
    I'm sure I'll be blamed if Boom gets axed.
    Goes with the territory.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    BTW, how did Doug Fister fare in NY?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Oh yeah touche. Well he did not do well. Neither did Cliff Lee.  Tigers have an uphill battle to fight.  I think like any team that wants to beat the Yankees they simply cannot go down 2 games to 1... must win Game 3.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I'd like to see what their back-up catcher's numbers were in those years. That's what CERA is for. If their back-ups did just as well or better, then it clearly was the staff, not so much the catcher, unless it was two catchers with exceptional skills at getting the most out of their pitchers on the same team- certainly a possibility in those days.
    Posted by moonslav59


    OK, Moon, here you go. I looked at Bench, Sanguillen and McCarver, three guys whose reputations as premier catchers can not be quesioned.
                      YEAR                 CERA                  BACKUP/CERA
    BENCH           1971                 3.36                  P. CORRALES  3.52
                       1972                 3.23                  B.Plummer     3.21
                       1973                 3.24                  B.  Plummer    3.96
                       1975                 3.15                  B.Plummer     4.18

    Sanguillen      1971                 3.27                  M. May         3.39
                       1972                 3.23                  M. May         2.65
                       1974                 3.43                  M. Ryan        4.44
                       1975                 3.02                  D .Dyer         3.01

    McCarver      1964                 3.34                  B. Uecker       3.78
                      1966                 3.13                  P. Corrales      3.06
                      1967                 2.88                  J. Romano       4.15
                      1969                 2.80                  D. Ricketts      3.05

     What we can draw from the data...back-ups performed better in just 1/3 of the twelve seasons, and just slightly,their average separation was just .152 in CERA, while the regulars were better eight out of twelve seasons with an average separation of .583 CERA. The regulars also trended to perform better in CERA with each passing season, giving a nod to the benefits of experience.

     What it means moving forward...I would predict that Salty would post better numbers in 2012, and I suggest that Lavarnway should NOT get the full time slot
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I think my main question/concern is that, how do the Sox find a full-time catcher that everyone can pitch to? I feel like there is too much "Caddy-ing" and has been for far too long. I agree with Moon about the CERA stat. But if we had a main-stay, we wouldn't have to look to CERA as much as we do. I think it's decision time. Who's our Ace going forward? Is it Lester? IF it's Lester that's our ace, then THERE'S the starting point to our next catcher and ALL other pitchers need to conform and make peace with that. Inclucing Beckett. If Beckett can't handle that, ask him what team he'd like to get traded to.

    I have a feeling that Tito isn't going to be the only change this off-season. I feel that most of the team is expendable to fix the pitching staff. That means we will probably have to give up some offensive and pitching pieces to get there. Alot of number-crunching will take place to balance-out overall team numbers to field a competitive team. This team needs an enema. Won't happen until the WS is over. I don't suggest the FO hire a manager before that point. In fact, I don't suggest anything, except taking a look at performances, stats, chemistry and watching all the other teams in the PS playing their a$zes off for the next month. Maybe they can learn something?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : OK, Moon, here you go. I looked at Bench, Sanguillen and McCarver, three guys whose reputations as premier catchers can not be quesioned.                   YEAR                 CERA                  BACKUP/CERA BENCH           1971                 3.36                  P. CORRALES  3.52                    1972                 3.23                  B.Plummer     3.21                    1973                 3.24                  B.  Plummer    3.96                    1975                 3.15                  B.Plummer     4.18 Sanguillen      1971                 3.27                  M. May         3.39                    1972                 3.23                  M. May         2.65                    1974                 3.43                  M. Ryan        4.44                    1975                 3.02                  D .Dyer         3.01 McCarver      1964                 3.34                  B. Uecker       3.78                   1966                 3.13                  P. Corrales      3.06                   1967                 2.88                  J. Romano       4.15                   1969                 2.80                  D. Ricketts      3.05  What we can draw from the data...back-ups performed better in just 1/3 of the twelve seasons, and just slightly ,their average separation was just .152 in CERA, while the regulars were better eight out of twelve seasons with an average separation of .583 CERA. The regulars also trended to perform better in CERA with each passing season, giving a nod to the benefits of experience.  What it means moving forward...I would predict that Salty would post better numbers in 2012, and I suggest that Lavarnway should NOT get the full time slot
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20

    Wow! Great detective work Youk. Very telling.

    I do think Salty can and will get better, but he has such a long way to go, that I am not sure a team like the Sox can afford to feel his growing pains. I am also concerned about his throwing and blocking abilities. His hitting is fine... for a catcher.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Someone said we need to trade beckett, because without V'Tek he will be bad... well, we better trade Lester, Bard and others as well, because if they put up seasonal numbers like the put up withjust VMart & Salty combined, we are in deep dew dew.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Wow! Great detective work Youk. Very telling. I do think Salty can and will get better, but he has such a long way to go, that I am not sure a team like the Sox can afford to feel his growing pains. I am also concerned about his throwing and blocking abilities. His hitting is fine... for a catcher.
    Posted by moonslav59
    Neither am I "sure a team like the Sox can afford to feel his growing pains," especially now.  
    What do you suggest?

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'd be fine with Ramon Hernandez, but he is getting old too. A Hernandez/V'TeK combo would make me happy. I believe Salty has one more option left. He may get upset, but I'd start him in AAA. Otherwise, trade him.

    I see the value in having a catcher who helps our staff not hurts it. I don't really care who it is, but I don't think it should be Salty or Lava for 2012 anyways.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I'd be fine with Ramon Hernandez, but he is getting old too. A Hernandez/V'TeK combo would make me happy. I believe Salty has one more option left. He may get upset, but I'd start him in AAA. Otherwise, trade him. I see the value in having a catcher who helps our staff not hurts it. I don't really care who it is, but I don't think it should be Salty or Lava for 2012 anyways.
    Posted by moonslav59
    By George, I'm with you on this one. Given the status of Sox pitching by the end of this season ( an apocalypse ), including, prominently, Beckett and Lester, now is no time for extended experiments in town. Maybe on the farm, but not in town.
    People who don't assign the same weight to catching as we and a few other posters ( all the ex-pitchers, I believe ) may have a different take. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm fine with having Lava and Youk DH next year if Papi's price gets too high. It would be nice to have a 3rd catcher on the 25 man roster to allow for flexibility and late inning PH'ing.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I want to try and put something into perspective.
    For many years, I refused to acknowledge a catcher's relevance.
    I had some real friction with some of my catchers when I played (not all) and maybe it carried over. Or maybe I just didn't want to give anyone else any credit being I took the blame when things went bad.

    Despite what coaches told me, I shut it out. It took years before I'd 'go there'.
    So, I know where others who don't buy into it are coming from.
    In 2009, I decided to make it an issue.
    In 2010, the CATCHER'S RELEVANCE thread came out - heavily researched. The data I showed was but a fraction of what I saw.

    But now, I think it's beginning to create a sector of division, with Tek as the tug-of-war poster child. It's no less important going forward, but I think we need to realize the limitations the FO has with valuing the criteria.
    So, when discussing future roster movement, I think it's wise to predicate it on the fact we may not see the best from our pitchers.

    Doesn't mean the pitching will tank, if healthy. It still should be good enough to reach October, but I would no longer count on the ACES hyperbole. And Verlander isn't coming through the door anytime soon.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I want to try and put something into perspective. For many years, I refused to acknowledge a catcher's relevance. I had some real friction with some of my catchers when I played (not all) and maybe it carried over. Or maybe I just didn't want to give anyone else any credit being I took the blame when things went bad. Despite what coaches told me, I shut it out. It took years before I'd 'go there'. So, I know where others who don't buy into it are coming from. In 2009, I decided to make it an issue. In 2010, the CATCHER'S RELEVANCE thread came out - heavily researched. The data I showed was but a fraction of what I saw. But now, I think it's beginning to create a sector of division, with Tek as the tug-of-war poster child. It's no less important going forward, but I think we need to realize the limitations the FO has with valuing the criteria. So, when discussing future roster movement, I think it's wise to predicate it on the fact we may not see the best from our pitchers. Doesn't mean the pitching will tank, if healthy. It still should be good enough to reach October, but I would no longer count on the ACES hyperbole. And Verlander isn't coming through the door anytime soon.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE
    Holy smokes, Harness, trouble with catchers and then health problems that cursed your career. You had good reason to suspect that the mound was a Druid graveyard. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Sad thing is, Ex-P, I'd probably do it all over again.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Great point harness. I'm prepared for a new direction with our catchers. I hope for the best, in terms of catcher's relevance, but there are ways to win without a great catcher in that area.

    I'll make my first 2012 projection: if VTek walks, after the first well-pitched game, the CERA naysayers will be out in force with their favorite weapon of crass destruction: the tiny sample size.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    And I'll give you one guess as to who'll be heading the mob of naysayers.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Of course you'd do it all over again, Harness. Playing this great game is its own reward. And I'm sure you have plenty of good memories.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I think it is obvious that a great catcher can have a massively positive effect on a pitching staff, that said.... Jorge Posada has proved that you DO NOT have to have a great catcher to win a WS. (He may be the worst defensive catcher ever to anchor a championship staff).
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I support none of you mention Tek or CERA again until Tek retires. Thanks.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Of course you'd do it all over again, Harness. Playing this great game is its own reward. And I'm sure you have plenty of good memories.
    Posted by expitch


    Yes, I have plenty of good memories. And come the time,
    I'll be leaving one of my better ones...for Boom.   Wink
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Most of my fondest memories of playing this great game involve fielding and baserunning. My dreams as a kid never involved hitting an HR in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs, but rather robbing an HR and crashing into the wall. 

    I loved playing behind great pitchers. I have always respected good pitching and fielding as the best way to insure winning or staying close enough to give your team a chance to win. I still do. The SS position was always tops for me (see my 500 or so posts on great fielding SSs being worth more than a poor SS who hits .350). I never realized the importance of the catcher, until much later in life.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Yes, I have plenty of good memories. And come the time, I'll be leaving one of my  better ones...for Boom.  
    Posted by harness


    Go ahead and do it Harness! I look forward to it. The inuendo is inappropriate. If you've got something do it. Until then, enough with the inuendo and false accusations. I don't have time to go through almost 9000 posts to see if I can find something to stick someone with, let alone your almost 20,000 posts. I opened all my posts for everyone to see ( I didn't realize they were not open earlier ). I even asked softy if I said that. I have nothing to hide. If I got angry and really did say something similar to that then so be it. God knows Softy has pushed everyone's patience around here. I have other things I prefer to do with my life if I have to deal with BS like this.

    Let me make this absolutely, crystal clear. I don't have the time or the desire to putz around with you, expitch or anyone else here who wants to nit pick my posts because they LOSE arguments to me. If you guys aren't happy because you got it wrong in a discussion earlier, debate something which actually makes sense and is worth debating. The past 2 weeks have been a complete waste of my time.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Go ahead and do it Harness! I look forward to it. The inuendo is inappropriate. If you've got something do it. Until then, enough with the inuendo and false accusations. I don't have time to go through almost 9000 posts to see if I can find something to stick someone with, let alone your almost 20,000 posts. I opened all my posts for everyone to see ( I didn't realize they were not open earlier ). I even asked softy if I said that. I have nothing to hide. If I got angry and really did say something similar to that then so be it. God knows Softy has pushed everyone's patience around here. I have other things I prefer to do with my life if I have to deal with BS like this. Let me make this absolutely, crystal clear. I don't have the time or the desire to putz around with you, expitch or anyone else here who wants to nit pick my posts because they LOSE arguments to me. If you guys aren't happy because you got it wrong in a discussion earlier, debate something which actually makes sense and is worth debating. The past 2 weeks have been a complete waste of my time.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    A participant in an argument does not get to decide who wins or loses. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not here to argue. You guys just will not stop. I've given you the last word several times which you blew past without a nanosecond's delay and now you are starting it up again. You are the problem. Not me.
     
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