A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : What was the exact offer to VMART? I was off the board at that time.
    Posted by harness


    Reportedly $36M/3 or $42M/4.

    One can debate whether this was a deliberate lowball offer designed to let VMart walk, but it appears only one team with a high need for a DH and back up 1Bman/C offered more. Detroit signed him to $50M/4 or about $2M per year more on the 4 year comparison, but only marginally more per year than the Sox 3 year offer.

    I think it was a serious attempt to bring VMart back. There are related issues, such as, had VMart accepted Theo's offer, would Theo have kept Papi? Would Theo have not traded for AGon or used VMart at 1B and PT catcher? Hard to know for sure, but the way Salty and Vtek are handling the complete catcher job, and Papi and AGon's performances to date, you gotta like the fact that VMart went elsewhere even for this year. Wait 4 years from now and the VMart loss of production will make it even more obvious.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    This may be a strange thought, but are the Mets willing to take a chance on several B type prospects like Lars for Beltran? Beltran's value is only good for half a season with no draft compensation when he walks. The Sox do have several guys that are blocked in the Minors right now or they are about to give up on. At least the Mets get something for him. I dont see anyone giving up 2-4 top prospects for a half year rental with no compensation later.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Maybe thats better left for "A Realistic Look at 2012: Part I", but I'll bite: Drew ($14M): 100% bye bye Papi ($12.5M): 75% chance he is back. I'd say he gets $25M/2 from Theo. Papelbon ($10.333M): 40% chance he is back. Theo offers him $39M/3, but someone else offers more and he walks. Scutaro ($5M with 2012 $6M team option/$3M player option with $1.5M buyout.) 25% chance he walks. Lowrie/Navarro/Iglesias will take over. Wheeler ($3M with $3M option for 2012): 90% chance option not offered. Varitek ($2M): 50% chance VTek is back/50% chance Lavarnway.  Wakefield ($2M): 75% chance Wake is back, probably as the 6th starter. Miller ($1.3M with club option for ?): 100% chance he is back. 
    Posted by moonslav59


    I try to simplify these things even though in reality they are very complex. 

    I think Lavarnway is almost certain to be in Boston next year if his bat stays good, but I also think Tek and Salty will continue to do what they are doing now.  Lavarnway can DH or maybe even be that righty outfielder. 

    Scutaro will be gone, as will Drew.  Probably Papelbon too because of Bard and the high cost long term contract Pap will demand. 

    Agree with moonslav that Lowrie/Navarro/Iglesias should have SS covered.

    I'm just not sure about Ortiz.  Tough call.  I'd offer no more than $20M for 2.  35 is a dangerous age for any contract of more than one year, plus he is basically a DH. 

    I see Wheeler and Miller both coming back.  Ditto Varitek. 


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    He may well become a 25-30 HR, 45-55 type double guy in the next couple years This is the first year since T-Ball that Bellsbury has reached double digit homers. He will never become a 25 to 30 HR dugy in the next couple of years. He'll be lucky if he reached 20 HR one time in his entire career.
    Posted by billbyboy

    Another perfectly well-timed post! Where did you get his T-Ball stats by the way?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I hope softy keeps posting "unattainable numbers". It seems as soon as he posts something, he is soon proven wrong. I hope he says AGon can't get 150 RBIs this year.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Watching the game today on the Orioles feed Jim Palmer was gushing about Jake; called him one of the most dynamic players in the game, and the new Ricky Henderson.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Reportedly $36M/3 or $42M/4. One can debate whether this was a deliberate lowball offer designed to let VMart walk, but it appears only one team with a high need for a DH and back up 1Bman/C offered more. Detroit signed him to $50M/4 or about $2M per year more on the 4 year comparison, but only marginally more per year than the Sox 3 year offer. I think it was a serious attempt to bring VMart back. There are related issues, such as, had VMart accepted Theo's offer, would Theo have kept Papi? Would Theo have not traded for AGon or used VMart at 1B and PT catcher? Hard to know for sure, but the way Salty and Vtek are handling the complete catcher job, and Papi and AGon's performances to date, you gotta like the fact that VMart went elsewhere even for this year. Wait 4 years from now and the VMart loss of production will make it even more obvious.
    Posted by moonslav59
    I don't think that Ortiz was a question. His option had already been picked up and trading him was going to an ugly process where Ortiz had 10-5 leverage.

    And Gonzalez was going to traded for IMO if the could get that deal done, either way. The player that would have been hard to shoe horn into the budget would have been Carl Crawford.

    I don't think that the RS were as freaked out about playing Victor at catcher for another year as some on this board are.

    For as much as Salty and Tek are doing the "total job" this year the 2010 RS were 9th in ERA and only .04  over the league average in ERA. YTD they are 8th and .08 over the league average.

    Now that said I don't think there is any reason to look back at the non-signing of VMart with trepidation of opportunity lost, even if the upgrade in LF (Crawford) is as debatable a value as he appears to be. The fact that VMart could find a better suitor who would have to give up a first round pick for signing him along with the sandwich worked out just fine.

    And while many including myself were very concerned about if Salty failed that having a catcher as old as Tek as the back-up and no heir apparent in MiLB, it did not play out that way.  (saying that I was wrong is so much easier than making 1000 posts about Salty's reverse pivot throw to 2B).

    Come 4 years from now, hardly anyone will question Victor's moving on, I am not sure the same can be said for the player that salary made enough room for IMO and that is Crawford. Now if you believe they weren't going to do a deal for A-Gon that point is mute. But do we really think that a player Epstein tried to trade for as early as 2006 was going off his radar if VMart had given the RS the discount and stayed?

    Just my takes
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Katz, I agree that if Victor had accepted our offer, he would be probably catching as much as Salty is now, and Salty might well have started the season at AAA. But I also think that had he accepted the offer, he would only be catching for this season and transitioning to DH for future years. But I also think that Theo is shrewd enough to know what if would have taken to sign him and he made an offer that was under that threshold. Obviously things have worked out wonderfully for all, including Victor.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Katz: Comparing pitching staffs from year-to-year is risky business, given form change/injuries. I do believe Theo was going for AGONE regardless of the VMART situation. They also had Crawford on their radar for over 6 years.

    Moon: Thanks for the info. What I find hard to understand is why, for the sake of 2 mil a year, VMART would walk away from a place he really enjoyed. And he stated repeatedly he loves catching and hoped/expected to be signed as a FT catcher.
    He doesn't appear to me to be the all-out mercenary type.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Katz : Comparing pitching staffs from year-to-year is risky business, given form change/injuries. I do believe Theo was going for AGONE regardless of the VMART situation. They also had Crawford on their radar for over 6 years. Moon : Thanks for the info. What I find hard to understand is why, for the sake of 2 mil a year, VMART would walk away from a place he really enjoyed. And he stated repeatedly he loves catching and hoped/expected to be signed as a FT catcher. He doesn't appear to me to be the all-out mercenary type.
    Posted by harness
    The $8M difference before tax was a great deal of money when applied against his career earnings to dat. He had earned $22.6M in his career. That $8M was equal to 35% of his prior career earnings. Given this was likely his last shot at making legacy money it is no surprise that it made a difference to him.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I realize that, in that context, Katz. But in the realm of 13 or 15 mil a year, guaranteed over the next few years, I have to believe he would prioritize team and position over 13% a year, especially given the fact that, as you said, this would likely be the last hurrah for him.

    As I mentioned, he doesn't come across as a mercenary. And he badly wanted a ring. Which team gives him the best shot at one?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Katz, I agree that if Victor had accepted our offer, he would be probably catching as much as Salty is now, and Salty might well have started the season at AAA. But I also think that had he accepted the offer, he would only be catching for this season and transitioning to DH for future years. But I also think that Theo is shrewd enough to know what if would have taken to sign him and he made an offer that was under that threshold. Obviously things have worked out wonderfully for all, including Victor.
    Posted by jidgef


    So, basically if VMart stayed here, Theo was deciding Papi would walk after 2011? I think VMart would have been our FT catcher for 2011 and maybe Theo thought C vs RHPs & /DH vs LHPs in 2012 and beyond (kepping Papi as well).

    Hard to imagine in 2012 spending big money for all these guys:
    3B/1B Youk
    1B AGon
    DH Papi
    C/DH VMart
    Plus, C Salty (low cost)

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I realize that, in that context. But in the realm of 13 or 15 mil a year, guaranteed over the next few years, I have to believe he would prioritize team and position over 13% a year, especially given the fact that, as you said, this would likely be the last hurrah for him. As I mentioned, he doesn't come across as a mercenary. And he badly wanted a ring. Which team gives him the best shot at one?
    Posted by harness


    99% of players would take $8M more, especially since this was his only "big payday" contract. I know it's hard to see it this way, but he was "underpaid" for years.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Hell, Moon, how much is enough? So it's 42 mil instead of 50.
    You really think he'd sac. the difference to lose the position he loves...and go to a team that has very limited ring potential?

    I find that difficult to accept.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Hell, Moon , how much is enough? So it's 42 mil instead of 50. You really think he'd sac. the difference to lose the position he loves...and go to a team that has very limited ring potential? I find that difficult to accept.
    Posted by harness


    Players do it all the time. If you think players sign with the Yanks or Sox to get a chance at a ring, I think you are fooling yourself. They sign because they want the extra few million. $8M is a lot of money, even to a multimillionaire. Also, I think Detroit does have a shot at a ring. At the time, VMart did not know we were going to have AGon and CC.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    It's getting real close to the deadline now. I'm wondering how the rest of you view our top need(s). I think we could still win it all with no moves, but I do think we have 4 areas that could be improved. Here is my list with highest 2011 only need listed first:

    1) RF: I am not totally sold on Reddick. I think Theo will get a RF'er who can hit LHPs for 2012 anyways. Maybe not a great player, but rather a role player who is more than capable vs lefties. Perhaps Theo might make a deal for a player who would be here in 2012 as well.

    2) SS: Scutaro, Lowrie and Navarro are fine with me, if healthy, but that is a big "if" right now. I wouldn't trade top prospects for Reyes, but would like to see him here as a rental.

    3) Starting Pitcher: Buch's health is a key to this need, but I'd love another top starter for the dog days and the playoffs. The problem is that we have such a large percent of our budget already tied up in our starting staff, that it just seems counterproductive to keep adding to it.

    4) Relief Pitcher: Always a crapshoot and a high need for many teams. The cost is usually higher than the return, so I'm not thinking this will happen. If we get a starter, we'd have Miller or Wake become a long man in the pen, so that might be a better way to go.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    It's getting real close to the deadline now. I'm wondering how the rest of you view our top need(s). I think we could still win it all with no moves, but I do think we have 4 areas that could be improved. Here is my list with highest 2011 only need listed first: 1) RF: I am not totally sold on Reddick. I think Theo will get a RF'er who can hit LHPs for 2012 anyways. Maybe not a great player, but rather a role player who is more than capable vs lefties. Perhaps Theo might make a deal for a player who would be here in 2012 as well. 2) SS: Scutaro, Lowrie and Navarro are fine with me, if healthy, but that is a big "if" right now. I wouldn't trade top prospects for Reyes, but would like to see him here as a rental. 3) Starting Pitcher: Buch's health is a key to this need, but I'd love another top starter for the dog days and the playoffs. The problem is that we have such a large percent of our budget already tied up in our starting staff, that it just seems counterproductive to keep adding to it. 4) Relief Pitcher: Always a crapshoot and a high need for many teams. The cost is usually higher than the return, so I'm not thinking this will happen. If we get a starter, we'd have Miller or Wake become a long man in the pen, so that might be a better way to go.
    Posted by moonslav59


    On 1) I think this is the main target area. A RH role player to replace CAM. I don't see the FO taking on Pence $$$/commitment. 

    2) I don't want to see Scut manning SS in the PO's. It will hurt our chances.
    They should be playing Navarro there exclusively up to the trade deadline - to see where they stand defensively at that position.

    3) Go with present SR and baby Buch into a meaningful role in the PO's.

    4) Lefty reliever will be sought out. But Miller might fill that role in Sept.

    On VMART: I wonder if he now regrets his decision. For 2-mil a year less, he could be in Salty's spot...

    Me? I don't regret the decision to let him walk.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Good points, harness. I do not trust Reddick to keep shining vs LHPs. You know this has been a big issue with me even before the CC signing (which made it worse).

    I think a guy like Fancouer might fit the need and the cost. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't think the FO is banking on Reddick vs. southpaws.
    I'm interested to see what NY does...
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I think a starting pitcher is the biggest need - going down the stretch with Miller (walks) Lackey (inconsistency) and Wake (injury risk) at the back end really worries me. Who knows what is going on with Clay at this point. Feels like the wheels could come off of these three at any time, if they collapse at the same time we're really in trouble (in our bullpen as well where we wouldlose depth if guys like Aceves have to start).

    I don't think Miller is much of an help out of the pen, you can't bring guys that walk that many hitters into remotely high leverage situations.

    However, I'm not sure that we can get a starter that will give us anything more than the depth we have already with Acevees (pen) and Dubrount (AAA). Particularly with the Yankees scouring for starting help. Prices must be very high and I don't want to give away the farm. I think we might be stuck with what we've got here. 

    I agree that the most realistic upgrade is a role player in right field, not someone here long-term. This is the route that I see us going. I don't want to count on Reddick through the end of the year, but I also don't want to get rid of him - he's earned playing time and a shot to take over the job next year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The Sox are holding 1st with a current rotation of
    Beckett
    Wake
    Lackey
    Weiland
    Miller

    They don't need another when Lester/Buch waiting in the wings.
    They spent enough on Lackey/Dice.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I could see Theo trading for a cheap 5th/'6th starter type to add to the mix...just in case.

    I doubt he will go bigtime here, since there is already so much invested in our starters now.  I guess a lot depends on what is offered and what they want in return, but if it a great pitcher, you know every team still in it will be in competition, driving up the cost beyond the worth.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I don't care what you contribute....I LOVE your new avatar!!
    Posted by ampoule

    Thanks Amp! People probably think that's my photo...I'm pretty old! It's a Rupert Murdoch caricature:
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Now that guy is having a bad day. I just checked a news feed for him and he is getting body slammed around the world about once every 2 hours. Stories about him now losing an acquisition bid in Australia, losing media rights to the 2012 London Olympics, ...etc. Every 2-3 hours he is losing millions of dollars in worldwide deals just today only! 

    I feel so sorry for him! JK!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Moon and Harness...we can agree to disagree and it's ok right!

    To me, I wouldn't touch Franceour with a 10 foot poll. He's not our kind of guy!

    At this point, I'm running with Reddick the rest of this year unless he really tanks in over 100 AB. So far he has been saving this team over the last 20 games, keeping us in first just like Drew did a couple years ago. Do I think he puts up the numbers Drew did 3 years ago? No, but at least he will swing once in a while when men are on base and that's what I want from a #6 or 7 hitter. He's going to contribute good OPS and he can definitely field RF for us. His overall contributions should be acceptable for a guy making mlb minimum.

    I can't believe I'm saying this, as Reyes is so injury prone lately, but why the Mets would save him is beyond me. I don't believe their comment that he will stay a Met. If I were Theo I'd have to consider Reyes for SS. That looks like our weakness now and I think it will be next year as well. There is not that much available for SS in FA next winter so he might be target A anyway next winter. Reyes is a gamble but if he can say on the field....WoW! It changes a lot of things for the better on this team. Maybe the Mets just want too much for him though. I don't think they are in that great a position though in that regard. 

    Do the Mets have the money to retain him next year? He's a near definite type A I would think but the Mets are broke. Would they make a statement and make him a foundational player going forward? We are probably talking Carl Crawford type money to retain him next winter. Is he worth that much too us? Especially given our situation near the luxury tax limit?

    Would it maybe make sense to let Papi, Drew, Papelbon and maybe a few others like Scutaro go and spend some of our cash for Jose Reyes? Have Lavarnway step in for Papi, Bard for Papelbon, Reddick for Drew. I think we could make a strong case in that regard. Is he worth a Ranaudo, Kalish, Doubront type deal if we can extend him? I would think so, but we might be able to get him for less if the Mets think they have no ability to retain him financially next year. Or we could just wait and bid for him next Winter with the Yanks basically out of it.

    But then again, the Mets know that also. It shouldn't take a huge haul to move him off the Mets roster. He is probably gone next winter anyway. They might be bluffing. We should find out.

    I don't think a SP is going to be available at a good value. Maybe a LH reliever makes sense ( can't we trade Okajima to some NL team for God's sake! ). 


     
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