A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Nice article boom. I'm really excited about Lavarnway. I think we'll see him in September.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    to HARNESS, just because your chances of winning are slim doesn't mean you simply "white-flag" your lineup to make it more obvious. The very presence of 2 .100 hitting OFs (yes I know DMAC hit a double...oh, oh, start him!!!) to go with no DH and Varitek doesnt quite give your team much of a chance against Cliff Lee or Bruce Chen for that matter.
    Posted by dannycater


    White flag is a bit strong. Poor player deployment in the face of limited depth is more accurate, I would think.

    Regardless, the outcome stands for itself.


    To Boom: I read that link on Lavernway. It's a long road from DH to catching veteran arms. But he looks like he can hit. Question is, will he be a one-dimensional receiver?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    to HARNESS, just because your chances of winning are slim doesn't mean you simply "white-flag" your lineup to make it more obvious. The very presence of 2 .100 hitting OFs (yes I know DMAC hit a double...oh, oh, start him!!!) to go with no DH and Varitek doesnt quite give your team much of a chance against Cliff Lee or Bruce Chen for that matter.

    danny, Theo's failure to address our issues vs LHPs was discussed at length this past offseason. Spending $142M on a player who is actually worse vs LHPs than DMac and Cam had been was glossed over by many posters on this sight. Some felt after 9 years in MLB, Crawford would suddenly learn to hit lefties. Others laughed at me when I said he should be platooned vs lefties.

    Drew has also had serious issues vs lefties. Reddick has been hot, and I feel he should be playing; however, the judgement of DMac on such a small sample size and the fact that he just returned to active duty is too premature. The guy has decent numbers vs LHPs over his career and last year. I don't think he should be batting 5th, but Tito is entrenched in his thinking and will never move Pedey from the 2 to 5 slot.

    Cameron has been a tremendous hitter vs LHPs going back 3-4 years. His numbers since 2008 vs LHPs lead the team. He's off to a poor start, but I'd still bet on him doing better (from today forward) vs most LHPs than Drew or a healthy Crawford. He is off to a very poor start. He may never adjust to the back-up role or playing just vs LHPs. He's still a very good fielder.

    VTek has had very good numbers vs LHPs (until this year). Salty has struggled vs LHPs.

    Even Pedey had bad numbers vs LHPs for a couple years (until this year).

    I'm not sure any line-up we put in there tonight would have mattered, but I wouldn't have minded seeing this one:

    1) Ellsbury
    2) Scutaro
    3) Youkilis
    4) AGon
    5) Pedey
    6) Reddick (LF/RF)
    7) Cam RF/DMac LF
    8) Vtek
    9) Beckett
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Lots of people think that Lavarnway will not be able to catch at the mlb level but his defense keeps improving and at this point I think he probably makes it. He has made great strides and hopefully will continue to improve. I think he probably gets a September call up and may even spend all next year in AAA to improve his skills but he could probably step in and be a decent back up solution right now IMO. If Tek or Salty get hurt, I think they give Lavarnway a shot.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    to HARNESS, just because your chances of winning are slim doesn't mean you simply "white-flag" your lineup to make it more obvious. The very presence of 2 .100 hitting OFs (yes I know DMAC hit a double...oh, oh, start him!!!) to go with no DH and Varitek doesnt quite give your team much of a chance against Cliff Lee or Bruce Chen for that matter. danny, Theo's failure to address our issues vs LHPs was discussed at length this past offseason. Spending $142M on a player who is actually worse vs LHPs than DMac and Cam had been was glossed over by many posters on this sight. Some felt after 9 years in MLB, Crawford would suddenly learn to hit lefties. Others laughed at me when I said he should be platooned vs lefties. Drew has also had serious issues vs lefties. Reddick has been hot, and I feel he should be playing; however, the judgement of DMac on such a small sample size and the fact that he just returned to active duty is too premature. The guy has decent numbers vs LHPs over his career and last year. I don't think he should be batting 5th, but Tito is entrenched in his thinking and will never move Pedey from the 2 to 5 slot. Cameron has been a tremendous hitter vs LHPs going back 3-4 years. His numbers since 2008 vs LHPs lead the team. He's off to a poor start, but I'd still bet on him doing better (from today forward) vs most LHPs than Drew or a healthy Crawford. He is off to a very poor start. He may never adjust to the back-up role or playing just vs LHPs. He's still a very good fielder. VTek has had very good numbers vs LHPs (until this year). Salty has struggled vs LHPs. Even Pedey had bad numbers vs LHPs for a couple years (until this year). I'm not sure any line-up we put in there tonight would have mattered, but I wouldn't have minded seeing this one: 1) Ellsbury 2) Scutaro 3) Youkilis 4) AGon 5) Pedey 6) Reddick (LF/RF) 7) Cam RF/DMac LF 8) Vtek 9) Beckett
    Posted by moonslav59


    Yeah. That's the line-up I had in mind. I thought Cam looked old early on this year, but it's really tough to differentiate that from one who still is able to make the necessary adjustments, but hasn't yet.

    Either Mac or Cam may be gone by July 31st, but the longer they tank, the greater the pressure to cut it...and lack of PT consequently becomes even more of an issue.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We should have traded Cameron last spring when we had the chance. He just isn't cut out for part time duty. Most big swing guys aren't. Lots of sluggers struggle in their first 100-150 AB. Especially ones who swing and miss a lot.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    The Red Sox had no chance in the Lee derby though, would have been a colossal waste of time going up against two teams ready to break the bank and a third he really wanted to play for. Do we really know if Lee likes Boston or not? I doubt he would have come here, but who knows for sure?
    Posted by moonslav59


    Correct. We have been down this road before with Teixeira.  No need to go over those footfalls again.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We should have traded Cameron last spring when we had the chance. He just isn't cut out for part time duty. Most big swing guys aren't. Lots of sluggers struggle in their first 100-150 AB. Especially ones who swing and miss a lot.

    I assume you mean Spring of 2011 since we had just signed him before the Spring of 2010. I'm not sure we could have gotten much for him, but their were rumors of a few teams with interest. I think Theo was afraid of our team vs LHPs and looked at Cam as the biggest bright spot off the bench in that area. With Drew and Crawford stinking vs LHPs, I don't think it was dumb not to trade our best hitter vs LHPs over the past 2-3 years. I hasn't worked out so far, but really, the sample sizes on Cam and DMac are too small to really know if they both can't produce anymore vs lefties. I know we are fast running out of time to find out, but I really think small sample size bashing gets out of hand on this site too often.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from scoobydew. Show scoobydew's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    First thought: AL is playing for WS loser.  Does anybody think Cliff Lee will do anything other than start Games 1, 4 and 7????  All they need is one Halliday/Hamels win and it's over.  Give AL one win and call it Phillies in 5.

    Second thought:  Ever notice Abraham loves mentiioning the decline against the Yankees in the standings....but ignores the streaking Rays who are ONE game behind the Sox.  You know the team with starting pitching better than either the Sox/Yankees and now Longoria is becoming Mr. Walkoff after struggling the first half?

    Final thought:  Sox have to big time buyers at the deadline - RF with .300 average, 30/100 performance, another starter (seriously who wants Lackey on the mound?) and relief help for Bard/Papelbom.  Go big or watch the playoffs....again.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I doubt we do anything serious. We may get a RH'd hitting OF'er, but not s megastar. We may get some pen help, but not at a high cost.

    All teams have faults. Ours are being exposed at NL parks vs lefties, but I still feel other teams have bigger weaknesses than ours.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Cameron was projected for the bench and he was 38 years old. We should have traded him. Some team needing a CF would have picked him up and paid half his salary. I understand the numbers against LH pitching but he was always projected to be a bench guy and he just wasn't cut out for it.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Hindsight is 20/20 but I did propose trading Cameron in the off season and in Spring training. He was just risky and although I didn't anticipate it being this bad I thought our young players could put up similar numbers and enable us to develop Kalish some as a reserve OF at the mlb level. It also would have saved us a little cash and maybe brought a prospect back in return. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    First thought: AL is playing for WS loser.  Does anybody think Cliff Lee will do anything other than start Games 1, 4 and 7????  All they need is one Halliday/Hamels win and it's over.  Give AL one win and call it Phillies in 5. Second thought:  Ever notice Abraham loves mentiioning the decline against the Yankees in the standings....but ignores the streaking Rays who are ONE game behind the Sox.  You know the team with starting pitching better than either the Sox/Yankees and now Longoria is becoming Mr. Walkoff after struggling the first half? Final thought:  Sox have to big time buyers at the deadline - RF with .300 average, 30/100 performance, another starter (seriously who wants Lackey on the mound?) and relief help for Bard/Papelbom.  Go big or watch the playoffs....again.
    Posted by scoobydew


    How did Lee do against the Giants in the 2010 WS?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Hindsight is 20/20 but I did propose trading Cameronin the off season and in Spring training. He was just risky and although I didn't anticipate it being this bad I thought our young players could put up similar numbers and enable us to develop Kalish some as a reserve OF at the mlb level. It also would have saved us a little cash and maybe brought a prospect back in return. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    Boom, I recall there being some rumoured interest in CAM this spring, due to injuries to RH hitting outfielders (forget the teams involved). I think if Boston had some legit RH pop in AAA instead of the lefties Kalish/Reddick, they may have considered it. But it would have been egg on Theo's face to eat 4 mil and be stuck with paying Cam 12 mil for squat.

    The hope was he'd rebound. The need for his RH bat was clearly evident once they committed themselves to Papi/CC/AGONE. Who could have known he'd end up playing like he's aged 10 years since being here.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The season is not yet half over, The sample sizes are too small to judge Cam and DMac too harshly, but you did call for trading Cam this Spring. Thus far, you seem to have been correct, but it was hard for anyone to forsee, he'd do poorly vs LHPs in sporadic play. He did very well last year in limited duty.

    I do not think he would have been dealt for another OF'er, so I really think if he was dealt, DMac would have been his primary replacement as the resident RH'd OF'er.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    UR probably right, Moon. Which means the risk of any impending Cam deal wasn't worth the risk of losing a (potentially) good RH bat. He still might click, but the tide is against him.

    I thought Pedey's remark tonight was humorous. When learning AGONE would be in RF and Papi at first, he replied, "Great. Now I gotta play 2nd, RF and 1st..."
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    OFFICIAL NOTICE:

    Moon: I have officially served you notice on the Disappearance of MR. Wastefield thread of being a jinx. Pertinent data is available there.

    You may reply via legit soothsayer after doing a tribal chant to the
    Moon Dance you tube.


    H

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    UR probably right, Moon . Which means the risk of any impending Cam deal wasn't worth the risk of losing a (potentially) good RH bat. He still might click, but the tide is against him. I thought Pedey's remark tonight was humorous. When learning AGONE would be in RF and Papi at first, he replied, "Great. Now I gotta play 2nd, RF and 1st..."
    Posted by harness


    Funny; but AGon looked like he knew what he was doing out there; a good ballplayer uses his instincts, hustle, and adapts; even in the face of adversity.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    UR probably right, Moon. Which means the risk of any impending Cam deal wasn't worth the risk of losing a (potentially) good RH bat. He still might click, but the tide is against him.

    I know they have both not done well. I expected better. Maybe they are not cut out to just play sporadically. I'm not sure if they will adjust or not, but my main issue is that their sample sizes vs LHPs are very small.
    Cam 70 PAs (.516 OPS)
    DMac 33 PAs (.440 OPS)
    Here's someone with more PAs vs LHPs that will take over their playing time when he returns:
    Crawford 92 PAs (.474 OPS)

    (Drew is at 38 PAs and a .606 OPS vs lefties)

    I thought Pedey's remark tonight was humorous. When learning AGONE would be in RF and Papi at first, he replied, "Great. Now I gotta play 2nd, RF and 1st..."

    That is funny. If Youl misses today's game, does AGon play 3rd?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The return on any trade of Cameron probably made trading him unattractive.

    His age (38) and the fact that he missed most of the 2010 season meant the RS weren't going to get quality in return and were going to pay a large part of his 2011 contract.

    In that light Epstein decided to hold on to a player who could play all three OF positions with some proficiency and had up to age 36 excellent splits against LH pitching.

    Even with the tremendous budget and lofty expectations that the RS and NYY have a simple fact has always been in play. The more highly paid, above league average front line players you have, the more that dilutes the quality of the second line (depth).

    As I write this my MLB Trade Rumors alert says the RS are planning a roster move for Cameron. So ends the Cam era if this is true. And it makes sense. I amy be wrong but the chance for Mac to rebound is better than Cameron's.

    While others disagreed last off season, the current situation IMO confirms that the RS were challenged in the OF and did need to address it for this season. As it sits right now it appears they may have not done enough but there is little doubt something needed to be done.

    While Reddick's early results are encouraging, I a remain concerned about his AAA BA and how that converts in MLB with more regular PT.

    Dumping Cameron at any rate in the winter probably had about as much return as whatever they will do now. For $7M it was worth it to the RS to see what Cameron had left. Sadly, not enough.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Well said katz, but as I said before, our biggest OF need was a RH'd bat, not a lefty that stinks vs lefties. I know after Drew leaves, that changes a bit, but our minors are loaded with lefties.

    I'm not saying I was right about the OF only needing minor adjustments this past winter, but I do think Cam and DMac might have done better had he played more this year.

    I'm not so sure about DMac having higher 2011 upside than Cam. My guess is that Cam can still hit lefties better than DMac and is three times a better fielder.

    Cam vs LHPs:
    2011: .516 (70 PAs)
    2010:  1.128 (48)
    2009: .954 (150)
    2008: .951 (132)

    DMac vs LHPs:
    2011: .440 (33)
    2010: .821 (174)
    2009: .921 (57)

    DMac has never been better vs LHPs than Cam, and he isn't now. Figure in the fielding, I still like Cam better. We will be paying for Cam whether he is here or not.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Moon I understand everything you are saying. Two thoughts.

    One is the Crawford signing. I hear you but given the market and what Werth got it probably was a case of the best option and some amount of rationalization on the RS part how good CC could be, all fueled by how thin the RS OF depth chart at the MLB level was coming into 2011.

    As far as Cameron's stats once players hit the other side of 35 personally I tend to discount the absolute relevancy of their historical splits and averages because aging has a tremendous impact.

    38 in a world without greenies and PEDS is after all pretty darn old, some guys it hits at 36 (Jeter), some as late as 39 (Posada). But when it hits it can hit fast and as a .250 hitter with some power Cameron had less to lose and still be a productive player IMO.

    What we will never know with Cameron was how different 2010 would have been if he hadn't been hurt and for that matter how different 2011 might have been if he had regular PT in 2010.

    But it was a signing with the potential to have major downside when we signed Cameron for $14M for his 37th and 38th years of age. Whatever the reasons, sadly the downside couldn't have been much more "major".

     
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not so sure about DMac having higher 2011 upside than Cam. My guess is that Cam can still hit lefties better than DMac and is three times a better fielder.

    I agree, Theo must have had evidence that Cam had lost quite a bit of his ability to field and/or his bat speed was thought to be gone forever.  Possibly the evidence was in practice, not games? Otherwise it makes no sense to choose DMac considering his fielding.

    I think a Francoeur deal could happen soon.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Yes, the "downside" was always a factor at his age. The injury was unfortunate, although many here think it was predictable. I think Theo looked at the fact that Cam was still in tremendous shape, better than anyone else on the team except Ellsbury, and had had better than career OPS is 5 of the previous 6 years (ages 31-36) before his signing.

    As it turned out, we got very little for the $14M/2 years. I hope DMac takes up the slack. His fielding in RF is not something I want to see much of.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I'm not so sure about DMac having higher 2011 upside than Cam. My guess is that Cam can still hit lefties better than DMac and is three times a better fielder. I agree, Theo must have had evidence that Cam had lost quite a bit of his ability to field and/or his bat speed was thought to be gone forever.  Possibly the evidence was in practice, not games? Otherwise it makes no sense to choose DMac considering his fielding. I think a Francoeur deal could happen soon.
    Posted by tom-uk
    I think it was to some extent visible in the games. His mind told him he plays on balls that he would have in 2009 that he didn't. He still was pretty good mind you, his athletic conditioning isn't an issue. It's his reaction time.

    Yeah it is AAA but Mac was tearing the cover off of the ball down there. During this second stint in a platoon Mac has hit a lot of balls on the screws. Personally Drew, Mac and Cam all have been less than exciting this season so it is very much a case of picking which poison pill to cut bait on.
     
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