A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not so sure about DMac having higher 2011 upside than Cam. My guess is that Cam can still hit lefties better than DMac and is three times a better fielder.

    I agree, Theo must have had evidence that Cam had lost quite a bit of his ability to field and/or his bat speed was thought to be gone forever.  Possibly the evidence was in practice, not games? Otherwise it makes no sense to choose DMac considering his fielding.

    I think a Francoeur deal could happen soon.


    Good points, tom. Perhaps his bat speed has slowed measurably.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Cameron era is over in Boston. It was flat out just a terrible signing, but Theo all but admitted to that in his quotes, and it takes a man to say he made a mistake on him. I think the big thing is that Ellsbury (and his troublesome routes to fly balls) is in CF to stay. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    danny, was it ever in doubt this year?

    The "big thing" is that we still lack a corner OF bat vs LHPs.

    Reddick may be the man, but it is not a sure bet.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The CAM mistake was more costly than the bread. Theo took Softy's adviseto get Jake out of CF. So he over-paid for Cam. Cam goes down and Jake runs into a bull: both players are removed prematurely.

    The RedSox paid 70 mil for Drew and got as seasoned outfielder.
    They have paid little for Jake and he's still learning his position every year, as anyone with his limited experience will do. The trade-off to this learning process is what he gives the team with his bat/speed.  Look at the Drew trade-off this year.
    Look at the difference in cost.  Jake should have been allowed to continue to play CF and grow. It would have meant a bridge LF'er in 2010 and possibly no injury to Ells.

    This is what happens when anybody dares to listen to Softy...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The injury was Ellsbury's fault. He never called off "the bull".

    Speaking of "softy's adviseto"...

    Cam should be the FT starter in CF this year.
    Wake and Vtek should have been DFA's.
    Dice-K was healthy and Wake was injury prone.
    Keep Oki.
    Let "Fat Beckett" walk.
    Nick Johnson at 1B or keep Kotchman there for 2010.
    Ben Sheets or Bedard for 2010.
    Wheeler was the best FA signing this year.
    Keep Lugo here.
    Bring Crisp back.
    Lackey was a good deal, but a year too long.
    VMart as a fulltime catcher for the first 2-4 more years (1B/DH the last 1-2 years) .



     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]The injury was Ellsbury's fault. He never called off "the bull".Speaking of " softy's adviseto "... Cam should be the FT starter in CF this year. Wake and Vtek should have been DFA's. Dice-K was healthy and Wake was injury prone. Keep Oki. Let "Fat Beckett" walk. Nick Johnson at 1B or keep Kotchman there for 2010. Ben Sheets or Bedard for 2010. Wheeler was the best FA signing this year. Keep Lugo here. Bring Crisp back. Lackey was a good deal, but a year too long. VMart as a fulltime catcher for the first 2-4 more years (1B/DH the last 1-2 years) .
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    There is no calling off a bull. Once he is in motion and charging, get the hell out of the way. Ask Hermida. Jake has earned the right to be the team's CF'er. He gives far more than he takes away.

    Softy wanted CAM starting this year in a platoon with Kalish over the CC signing.
    The longer he posts, the more idiocy is exposed. He clings to and defends the few times he's right ( inevitable given how many stances he takes) - to deflect his poor judgement and blatant bias.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I've watched the play many times. Jake never said a word. His moth never moved. Beltre did what he is supposed to do: run hard for every ball until called off.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Maybe Jake and Hermida are ventriloquists.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I was going to wait until the half way point to start the next chapter, but for some reason they closed Part II. Let's keep it real. Stay on topic: Sox and anything related to the Sox. Topics about to heat up: 1) RF: Drew, Reddick, Cam, DMac or trade? 2) SS: Always an issue. 3) C: Been quiet lately, but... 4) Starters 5) Releivers 6) Trade deadline
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Realistically when Crawford returns, they can platoon Drew (primary), Reddick (secondary) and MacDonald (tertiary).  Barring a trade for Reyes which is not an impossibility what you see is what you have.  Orlando Cabrera is not walking through that door.  Catchers have improved offensively, but continue to be unable to throw out base runners.  Expect more of the same.  Starting rotation is adequate and has sufficient depth as currently consituted.  Lester will be very solid, Beckett will decline from his current level which will be offset by a corresponding improvement by Lackey, Buchholz is the middle of the rotation guy and Wakefield and Miller are competing for the 5th spot.  The bullpen is solid at the back end and suspect in the middle (Albers, Jenks and Wheeler are hardly a strong troika).  It's been a revolving door which will likely continue in the second half and it is the team's most glaring, but under the radar weakness.  The Sox GM will have to do "something" this year at the trade deadline just for the sake of PR, but do not expect a whole lot.  His record is like most GM's a "mixed bag" with modest success on moves borne of necessity (Garciaparra and Ramirez) and modest failures (e.g., Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez and Mike Gonzalez and Eric Gagne for David Murphy and Kason Gabbard).  Other than signing Ortiz as a free agent which has turned out to be his greatest success, drafting and developing a group of quality youngsters in Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, Papelbon and Bard, one might view his overall grade in the job as a C or C-.  He has failed much more often than he has succeeded.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Maybe Jake and Hermida are ventriloquists.


    Are you calling Beltre their "dummy"?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Realistically when Crawford returns, they can platoon Drew (primary), Reddick (secondary) and MacDonald (tertiary).  Barring a trade for Reyes which is not an impossibility what you see is what you have.  Orlando Cabrera is not walking through that door. 

    Thank God! That door could be any player's wife's bedroom door.

    Catchers have improved offensively, but continue to be unable to throw out base runners. 

    23% is not that bad.

    Expect more of the same.  Starting rotation is adequate and has sufficient depth as currently consituted.  Lester will be very solid, Beckett will decline from his current level which will be offset by a corresponding improvement by Lackey, Buchholz is the middle of the rotation guy and Wakefield and Miller are competing for the 5th spot.  

    You own a crystal ball?

    The bullpen is solid at the back end and suspect in the middle (Albers, Jenks and Wheeler are hardly a strong troika).  It's been a revolving door which will likely continue in the second half and it is the team's most glaring, but under the radar weakness. 

    Almost every team has a weak back-end pen.

    The Sox GM will have to do "something" this year at the trade deadline just for the sake of PR, but do not expect a whole lot. 

    They spent their wad on CC and AGon.

    His record is like most GM's a "mixed bag" with modest success on moves borne of necessity (Garciaparra and Ramirez) and modest failures (e.g., Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez and Mike Gonzalez and Eric Gagne for David Murphy and Kason Gabbard).  Other than signing Ortiz as a free agent which has turned out to be his greatest success, drafting and developing a group of quality youngsters in Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, Papelbon and Bard, one might view his overall grade in the job as a C or C-.  He has failed much more often than he has succeeded.

    Mueller, Millar, Roberts, and AGon?

    Letting Pedro, Damon, JBay and other go "just in time".
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Dummies?               

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkrzFQc3BgA&feature=related



                            Laughing
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    When a player ages it can be a precipitous drop. It needs to be factored into the equation when a guy gets to be 36 - 38 years old. We need to consider the impact of that precipitous drop in our decisions. When a guy was hitting .250 in a good year, that precipitous, age related, drop can result in a player hitting under .200 with little pop; i.e, a disaster at that position. I never liked the Cameron signing but I recognize that last year we didn't really have a lot of good options. 

    The same thing went into my equation last year for Papi. He could have come back and hit .210 for all we knew. It might well have not been worth the risk. I factored that into my projections but fortunately got that one completely wrong. My point though is that when a player in in their prime we generally know what we are going to get. When they are 36 - 38 years old we are at risk of a career blow out, which really hurts the team bad.

    Another thing to factor in with McDonald is that he is mainly a fastball hitter and he has a known past as a PED user. He is not likely to hit good pitching; i.e. get a hit when you really need it, and he cannot be counted on for consistent performance. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Ryan Lavarnway is on pace to hit about 40 HR over a 600 AB season. The guy has hit consistently his entire career. I think we may have a major asset in that guy going forward and he fits perfectly in Fenway.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    My gut feeling is that he has opposite field hitting ability, and the ability to keep his bat in the zone long enough to hit breaking pitches fairly well. Even as slow as Lavarnway is, he might hit for a decent average in Fenway as well as hit for some pop.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    How many 24 year old players hit for a 40 HR pace in AAA? Especially catchers.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Brandon Jacobs gives every impression of being potentially the best OF prospect in the system. Major pop in his bat and enough speed to cover a lot of ground. A 5 tool guy potentially. 17 steals now and a .331 average from a 20 year old power hitter in Greenville.

    The guy they should consider to be major trade bait now is Wieland. He has emerged as a solid starting pitching prospect. A lot of teams would love to have him but he's probably a #5 at best for us. We have Doubront, Wakefield, Aceves , Ranaudo and Hernandez. i think Wieland could be had in the right deal.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Good job, boom. I think we will see Lavarnway this September (or earlier if someone gets hurt).
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Dummies?                http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkrzFQc3BgA&feature=related                         
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Works for me.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Boom, what's your source on the PED allegations regarding Mac? I frankly don't have my ear that close to the ground to ever heard anything about a guy sort of trapped at the AAAA level in his career and the first I ever heard of Darnell was his call up last year.

    FWIW I see why Tito keeps trying to get Mac on track. He is hitting a lot of balls well for his outs and just not finding the holes with them. And at any rate I think the only way you get Theo or any GM to make a move is to have a player assemble a sample set. To date the RH platoon OFer has been an important piece on the roster so it hasn't been a situation where you could "hide" the RH OFers any way.

    I am sure Theo really wrestled with cutting Cameron. By all visible indications he is a great clubhouse guy, well respected and Theo thought a great deal of him when he signed him. Then there is the money. Recognizing a $15M mistake and bringing that to a point of finality probably requires some time to get your head around it and the belief that the player is a total loss for your team.

    The fact that Mac was the player held on to and the much larger contract was basically written off yesterday suggests to me that no matter how slim the odds are of Darnell giving the RS what they need from the right side, the RS feel the odds are better than they would have been with Mike.

    In terms of proportionality let's keep in mind what we are talking about during AL play and a healthy roster however. It is RF and pinch hitting. It is the #8 spot in the line-up. What we have been getting from Drew, Mac and Cam isn't acceptable but we don't need the offensive production of A-Gon there either. If Drew could improve his SLG and get his BA up 2% (20 points) or we can get .250/.350/.420 from Reddick and something similar moving forward from Mac .240/.330/.400 we'd be in great shape.

    This tough stretch should not be over read (though it will be). This is a club with a lot of positives. Good moving parts in the BP behind a solid hold and close tandem, a good line-up of position players that make most of the plays behind the pitchers and more options with starting pitchers than most teams have with two starters having top of the rotation years.

    Fixing the OF production is not a matter of finding a middle of the line-up thunder stick, just getting league average or slightly below production from RF.

    Most everybody else in baseball would like to have this problem. It is a much smaller problem than it would have been if Salty was the train wreck many of feared he could be back in April.

    Just my takes
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Katz -


    May 6, 2005

    Minor leaguer Darnell McDonald (Cleveland Indians) -- 15 games for violating baseball's minor league steroid policy.

    Link:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2474192

    Darnell had a mediocre minor league career overall. Sometimes he was way up there and sometimes he was very average. Maybe he peaked last year. My point being that we don't know what we are going to get from that type of player.

    I think they DFAed Cameron because they think they may be able to trade him to a team which needs a CF. They won't get much but if they pick up some of that salary they should be able to do a trade I would think. McDonald is not worth anything in a trade right now.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I hope they hang in there with Reddick and Darnell for the RF situation. It saves a lot of money and if Reddick cuts it they have a low cost solution in RF for a long time and mlb OF will be a a big premium next year. Some of their best prospects are outfielders going forward. They can get buy next year with Kalish / Reddick / Linares, Hassan and Nava. After that they have Brentz, Jacobs and others.

    I hope they go with an internal solution.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Katz - May 6, 2005 Minor leaguer Darnell McDonald (Cleveland Indians) -- 15 games for violating baseball's minor league steroid policy. Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2474192 Darnell had a mediocre minor league career overall. Sometimes he was way up there and sometimes he was very average. Maybe he peaked last year. My point being that we don't know what we are going to get from that type of player. I think they DFAed Cameron because they think they may be able to trade him to a team which needs a CF. They won't get much but if they pick up some of that salary they should be able to do a trade I would think. McDonald is not worth anything in a trade right now.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]Theo certainly appears resigned to the fact that this probably ends up a release...

    Epstein said the Red Sox would look to trade Cameron. But given the money he is owed, that seems unlikely. Epstein also admitted it was "a remote possibility" Cameron would accept a minor league assignment. They discussed that today.

    Honestly I think they held out less hope for Cam than Mac but it is a matter of opinion of course. After all eating part of Cam's salary and getting back a low ceiling minor leaguer still is a bigger hit than releasing Mac who is owed one half of $0.475M versus Mike's situation.

    Even if we assume they could get somebody to eat half of Mike's salary they will take a $2M hit. So best case scenario Mac's release would have saved the RS $1.750M.

    As for Mac his minor league career was probably better than mediocre, don't you think? He has never been able to be compelling enough either in his AAA stats or his cups of coffee but a career .763 OPS in AAA isn't mediocre, is it?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Great post katz.

    We are also 5th in fielding by UZR:
    1) TB   25.5
    2) AZ   23.3
    3) NYY 20.6
    4) Cin   20.4
    5) Bos  20.3
    6) LAA  14.4

    Very close to 3rd place.

    On offense, we are tied with the Yanks for the best team OPS at .792.

    We are 4th in WHIP in the AL at 1.27, just ahead of the Yanks.Weare 4th in tERA at 4.04, just ahead of the Rays (Yanks at 4.24).
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Theo certainly appears resigned to the fact that this probably ends up a release... Epstein said the Red Sox would look to trade Cameron. But given the money he is owed, that seems unlikely . Epstein also admitted it was "a remote possibility" Cameron would accept a minor league assignment. They discussed that today. Honestly I think they held out less hope for Cam than Mac but it is a matter of opinion of course. After all eating part of Cam's salary and getting back a low ceiling minor leaguer still is a bigger hit than releasing Mac who is owed one half of $0.475M versus Mike's situation. Even if we assume they could get somebody to eat half of Mike's salary they will take a $2M hit. So best case scenario Mac's release would have saved the RS $1.750M. As for Mac his minor league career was probably better than mediocre, don't you think? He has never been able to be compelling enough either in his AAA stats or his cups of coffee but a career .763 OPS in AAA isn't mediocre, is it?
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE] 

    OK, it's not mediocre if we look at him as a AAA player but there is nothing there which indicates a solid mlb level player. Relatively little pop or obp or even average as a career OF. Not a good defensive CF and not enough pop for a starting level corner OF. Look at his career averages at each minor league team since he was drafted in 1997:

    .260
    .261
    .222
    .266
    .242
    .248
    .282
    .238
    .290
    .292
    .289
    .296
    .234
    .281
    .284
    .270
    .292
    .297
    .315
    .277
    .268
    .314
    .341
    .345

    And his HR totals also stink. This guy has 5734 minor league plate appearances. A career .273 minor league average as an OF.  A total of 99 minor league HR in 14 seasons.  A career minor league OBP of .333 even as a career minor league guy. This guy is probably out of the majors for good after this year.  



     

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