1) "Wins rant". I said I'd take 4-0 (2.50 ERA) over 2-2 (1.22 ERA). I said nothing about projection or career. I isolated the question in that context.
If I sounded condescending about it, it's because my statement was taken out of context. The bottom line is winning. In a WS, I don't give a sh*t how they win. As long as they win. If I'm projecting, then obviously I use other criteria and handi-cap it
You are still saying the "bottom line is winning". It is not for a pitcher. The bottom line is did the pitcher help us win, does he usually help us win, at what rate does he help us win, does he get lucky or unlucky, and more... Past, present, and projections (future)..
2) Lackey's season has been a disaster. Disagree. The season isn't over
harness, you know I meant thus far. Let's not go this route. I actually think he will pitch well the rest of the season. I'd bet he does better than Wake, Miller, and Harden the rest of the way. My point is, he is lucky to be 9-8. His run distribution has been such that he gets shelled in a few games and pitched preety good to Ok in about 66% of the games. That is not bad. But, those are like Wake numbers. Those are numbers we have defended to show Wake is a capable 5/6 starter, not a capable 3/4 starter.
He could win his career avg. of 14 games, despite a DL stay and off-field issues
Miller could have won 14 games with the amount of starts lackey will have gotten by season's end. It does not make his season a success.
A current 4-0 2.50 run refutes the term "disaster". Is it not part of the season?
Yes, a good sign. A good trend. Still a cherry-picked timeframe to make him look as good as possible. (Nothing wrong with that, but it is what it is.)
To draw an analogy: Wake 2010. Some may say it was a disaster (one in particular), but we both know Wake had value, just as lackey has value
I never said Lackey had no value. I said the 14 win valuation is misleading and narrow in focus.
His salary is a by-product of the FA market,and the fact the team can afford to over-spend. His worth should not be measured in FA dollars
His worth can be measured in what could we have gotten instead of him for $85M, same as CC for $142M. In the case of Drew, a good case was made that all other options were just as bad- or worse. Yes, I'd rather have Lackey than nobody. Howver, I'd rather have Wake's numbers than Lackey's. Wake's contract was essentially a FA deal (team friendly, but still).
3) "Wins are more a team stat than an individual one". This is hard to quantify. It involves many variables, and as you know, I don't like to see it w/o looking at the pitcher/catcher equation. The degree of variance is highly debateable. It has to be seen over many years. The fact is, good pitching controls good hitting over-all.
Of course, the term "good" is relative to era. Pitching is the predominant factor over all others. When you see a year like Carlton had for a pathetic team, it epitomises the point. But pitching can be easily compromised, so this is one that deserves it's own thread, and I doubt anything will really be resolved. Let's just say, W/L may be an under-rated mode of measurement for those who feel as you do, but deserved for those who believe otherwise
The difference is Lackey isn't "controlling" anybody's hitting anywhere near as well as Carlton did. Carlton won many games 1-0 and 2-1. It is not a fair comparison.
4A) "Lackey has been almost as poor on the road".
This needs to be viewed in the context of when he was hurt and the level of comp. faced in all venues. He is facing tougher line-ups on a more regular basis than his days in CA, and 81 of them are at the Fens
I disagree: in 2010, he had better numbers at home in Fenway than on the road
Away (15 games started, not 81) 11-5, 4.45 ERA/1.455 WHIP
Home (18 games started, not 81) 3-6, 4.34 ERA/1.388 WHIP.
Opponent's OPS was nearly identical..
This year, he hasd done better on the road in ERA and WHIP, but has a better winning % at home (6-4 vs 3-4). Gues who he has pitched the most games against this year:
Toronto 3, Seattle 2, Oakland 2, LAA 2. One game vs Balt, KC, Milw, NYY, Phil, SD, TB, and TX and 0 vs Bos.
How about 2010? Yankees? No. It was:
5 vs Balt, 4 vs TB, 4 vs Tor, only 3 vs NYY, 0 vs Bos, 3 vs LAA, 2 vs Oak, Sea, Phil, and 1 vs Az, Cle, Col, Det, MN, and TX.
Totals with Boston:
In Boston, he has faced winning teams in 19 of 31 starts.
In LA, he faced 32/51 in 2008-2009.
(16 of 27 teams with winning records in 2009. In 2008, it was 16/24)
4B) "Lackey is not carrying this team". Never said he was.
As for taking a 5-15 pitcher 3.50 ERA 1.2 WHIP over a 5-15 pitcher w/ 4.00 ERA 1.3 WHIP - I'll take the 15-5 mark. The difference in ERA/WHIP isn't enough to justify the fact that the 5-15 pitcher might be looking for an excuse to lose
I thought you would choose that, so in fact, I took nothing "out of context"..
For anyone to claim Miller is a winner off a 6-1 mark is delusional. His career numbers say otherwise. Jack Morris was a winner - a winner when it counted
But Miller's sample size this year is larger than Lackey's last 4 games. Miller's record this year is a manifestation of run support, not his skill level. He may not have been 6-1 last year, but if he had this line-up and good fielding behind him, I bet he'd have been much better.
But his ERA/WHIP slant the issue, which is why he's on the outside looking in.
Then why don't Lackey's ERA and WHIP slant your view?
Boston ERA: 4.96
Boston WHIP: 1.466...
5) "I know you have mentioned Fenway hurting Wake...".
It did in the first half of his career. A flyball pitcher has to learn how to use Fenway to his advantage, and he didn't have the proper command of this knuckler early on to do that. Few here back Wake more than us.
I know you back Wake, but Wake did go 16-8 2.95 (1.183) his first season here. He went 59-44 his first 4 (avg 15 wins! Better than Lackey! Wow!). His WHIP were worse then than recent years, his ERA was better. To me, no way Wake pitched better in 2007:
17-12 4.76 1.349
10-11 4.13 1.182
Wake pitched unbelievable in 2008 and got robbed. He had a 9 game stretch with no game allowing over 3 ER- 7 were 2 or less- 4 were 1 or less: he went 3-3 in that stretch. Many of his losses, he let up less runs than the opps. The pen blew the games, but I guess he just wasn't a "winner" that year. He was missing some heart, or the venue worked against him. No, he pitched great, and over time it would normally even out and he'd have gotten more wins with those numbers than his 2007 numbers. He was better in 2008 than 2007.