Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
posted at 7/31/2011 12:00 PM EDT
Moon: Winning is the bottom line. This goes for pitching, hitting, defense, managing, FO, etc. How you get there is the building block. But it all comes down to winning. That's why I say, I'll take 4 wins over two. Or 15 over 5, given rather similar parimeters. If we're talking projections, that's a different issue.
I'm simply isolating it to the bottom line
Nobody wants 2 wins instead of 4, but if the pitcher has little or nothing to do with the 4 wins, I don't give him credit. If we win a game 15-14 and the pitcher lets up 14 runs, sorry, I won't praise him for "the win". Conversley, if a pitcher wins 2 games 2-1 and loses 2 games 3-2, I will praise the pitcher for a job well done and would want that pitcher starting the first playoff game over the guy who wils games 15-14 That is my point. Winning is the bottom line for thne team, but many times winning is beyond the control of the pitcher.
A 14 win evaluation is based on his years in CA. How is that misleading?
Numbers like ERA/WHIP/BABIP/etc. are what is misleading in his case, because of the inaccurate numerical adjustments to a different climate (not referring to just weather), division, venue, etc.
Fenway is a notorious hitter's park. (Watch for an upcoming thread on this subject). Lacky's limited road work over 10 months isn't enough to say Fenway isn't compromising Lackey. Fenway compromises the staff as a whole
You 14 win comment is not misleading because it is wrong, but it is misleading if he wins 14 games with a 6.20 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He won't get much praise from me, beyond looking at his percent of games he allows 3 or ERs and keeps us in it-which I have praised him for. Salary is a factor, but it not by biggest beef with Lackey. I don't like his showing up teammates, even if he had a 1.50 ERA, but when he has a 6.00+ ERA, it sickens me. I wish the next time he lets up an HR, all 8 fielders throw their glove to the ground, curse and kick the dirt, then glare at Lackey and cuss him out. This isn't about his wife having cancer-that is a gterrible thing. This guy has been like this long before she was diagnosed, but noe his performance level has slipped..
This gets into a gray area of home advantage vs. park dimensions, which interests me enough to do some work on this (to be addressed on the upcoming thread).
Saying a 14 win season is "successful" depends on your perception. If you judge him on salary, you are limiting your vision. This has to be seen in a larger context. If you feel Theo didn't spend the money wisely, then look at UR alternative names of choice AT THE TIME OF HIS SIGNING and try and project how many more wins that might equate to
I am judging him on WHIP, ERA, QS% (and near QS%), W-L% and much much more before I get to wins (I even put team record in that pitcher's games in front of individual record).
As for team wins vs. individual ones, I wasn't comparing Lackey to Carlton. I was using an extreme example of how one pitcher can be completely dominant over all other factors to illustrate the point. In Lackey's case, his talent level has to be adjusted accordingly
His talent level is worse than when we signed him, that's our point. He has not given us what we expected, except for maybe wins.
No matter how you cut it, he has averaged 14 wins a year for a franchise whose success rate is similar to ours. He really isn't much different now in terms of velocity or depth as he was in CA. His stuff has a slight regression if you really break it down, but not anything truly steep
Break this down:
Before Bos/ with Bos
WHIP 1.306 / 1.466
ERA+ 116 / 86
ERA 3.81 / 4.96
Win% .590 / .548
K/BB 2.72 / 2.18
FIP in Boston: 100 and 116 (never above 100 with LAA, never above 91 in 5 years previous to signing here)
xFIP in the 3.80's for 3 years before coming here: 4.15 and 4.57 after.
GB%, LD%, etc... all worse this year.
He is not the same pitcher, even with park and opponent adjustments.
If Miller wins 14 games, I'd easily consider that a good first year for him, given his AAA time. If he ends up with a 5+ ERA/high WHIP, he'd project lower for next year, depending on his level of growth
Miller has pitched in the majors for 5 years and has about 65 games started. That doesn't mean he can't get his act together, but I fear he is what he is. If he pitches the same way and goes 14-3, it does not mean he pitched well.
Lackey's WHIP/ERA in Boston jive with his CA numbers when adjustments arerealistic, not simply site skewed. This is the area of misconception. And it's not easily conveyed. On one hand, I'm saying Lackey isn't what you or others thought he'd be based on salary of his CA stats. However, I'm also defending him in that his 2011 numbers aren't what he's capable of in the context of his 2010 numbers, which are truer in regards to further evaluation
I think you are the one with the "misconception" on this issue. I looked at Lackey's opponents, venue, etc... and compared LAA numbers to here. He has done worse or much worse(in most cases) in the same venues with Boston than with LAA.. He has a very good fielding team behind him this year, and excfellent run support.
I said he'll pitch better coming off the DL. He was hurt in May and had a rough April, as did many. And he has. Has he been a world beater? Of course not. Lackey is not a world beater type of pitcher. But his velocity coming off the DL was a solid barometer of better things to come.
But you aren't selecting his post DL numbers, you only went back 4 games to try and make a definitive point. I am not disagreeing that Lackey has or may have "turned things around", I am arguing that Lackey has not given us what we expected since coming here, and you say he has: based on wins only. That is the issue I am debating..
On Wake: He wins 13.75 games in a full season. You are right, he pitched better in 2008 with little run support. I'm not disputing that. What I'm saying is that run support tends to even out over the years. As do lucky breaks
No you are not saying that. You are saying Lackey has won 14 game/yr with Boston and that is all that counts. I am saying he isn't pitching like a 14 game winner and if things "evened out", he'd be 10-15 at year's end with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. I don't see many consistent 14 game winners with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. That is my point..
In another era, Wake averages 16 wins a season simply because he would have had more starts in a 4-man rotation. Now, he has won 16-17 games 4 times in this era, but I'm willing to bet his RS those years was better than the career norm for him. It all averages out. If Wake had been traded to the Angels at mid career, I'm willing to bet his win total would be similar, his wins per start similar, but his ERA/WHIP/etc. quite different. As for his first year in Boston, I think he was simply on a terrific run, coupled with being an unknown in the A.L. That can and will defy venue or team talent level in that, again, pitching is the predominat factor
I dont think Wake ever pitched in a 4 man rotation, and his first 4 years with Boston saw many many wins. That goes against what you said about his early years here. It really has nothing to do with Lackey and 14 wins. I just added the numbers as a sidenote to the debate.
harness, I respect your opinions. I agree with you on a high percent of them. I undertsand your position here. It is not without merit. I am not taking your position out of context, because you have restated your position several times in this debate. You made some good points. I strongly disagree. I hope Lackey keeps up his 4 game pace. I have confidence he will. This season is not over, and it is not a lost season for him. His contract is not over. I do not think 2010 was that bad. I had hoped he would have adjusted, being a veteran and all, but I saw regression, distraction, tantums, injury, and poor numbers. This has not been a good year so far, despite the 9 wins. I liken this to softy's Lugo was our "wire to wire SS" in a WS year, so he can never have been labelled a bust.