A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Few thoughts:

    To add to Harness notes about who was a question mark after the 2009 season let's not forget Tim Wakefield was coming off of back surgery too. Dice K had looked good in his last couple of starts but had as Harness points out a lost 2009 and Buch's first shot at being a MLB starting pitcher was so rough he went back to Pawtucket.

    Now Burrito you are right that Lackey came with red flags. But that's the balancing act the RS go through. If they are too risk adverse the option sometimes will be not being competitive for year by design, rather than by injury as ended up being the case in 2010.

    Jidgef, the medical staff does their job and often ends up looking bad for it. Their role is to keep guys on the field and try and get them back there as quickly as possible. In that process they don't always dig super deep or make take the most  aggressive course of treatment first. It is subject to critique but it isn't unique IMO, it is part of the industry. I agree they look bad at times but it is IMO by design to a certain extent. If not for the money these guys make it would probably be even more egregious.

    I really worry about Lackey being one of the guys alluded to above, an injured player being nursed along. With the news on Clay the RS IMO need Lackey to emerge as a strong starter and have the kind of post season he did in 2009 for the Halos. And for Bedard to be a strong 6-7 inning starter too. Otherwise in spite of this offense they may well fall a little short in the post season assuming they get there. Which given their current record, their offense and the dynamics of the regular season seems likely. How soon it would biute them in the post season I could not predict but if they only show up with two quality starters (Beckett and Lester) it would be a tall order to win 11. 

    Every team is going to less than stellar some place and for the RS it appears it is their defense on the left side of the IF. But it isn't as though the Youk and the SS are butchers, their range is just not all that great.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    ok, harness, to answer your question: Beckett on the Open Market....Beckett now has proven he's back to where he was an elite ace, something that was certainly in doubt when he signed the extension last year. 5 years-20 mil a year, 100 mil....

    Now, back to wins and starters and expectations. Let's throw out the winning argument in terms of numbers of wins because we all have gone off point on this. It's not the number of wins you buy, it's the number of quality innings you buy. You purchase a starting pitcher with expectations of innings pitched, quality starts, low enough ERA/WHIP or a combination that equates to lower all runs against. Here's what you don't want--a guy who can't get your team into the 7th, a guy who has to spend the pen in the 3rd or 4th because you are incapable of stopping early bleeding, a guy who goes on the DL frequently thus making himself less useful, and a guy who when you send him to the mound the team has confidence that it can score enough runs that the SP can leave the game to the later pen with a lead..

    Lackey? Well, 82 million....not spent for 14 wins a season, but spent for 200-plus innings for sure, and a reasonable expectation that he would be part of a majority of wins in his starts. Not 50-50. So the jury is out on him. How's that, harness? Now to be consistent, I don't think wins for a SP should go into the equation of that pitcher's worth. I really don't. Too many variables and I dismiss the thought.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    m
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]blow me, jidge....:-)
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]
    Now that's a quality contribution!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    katz - would like to agree with your take on the medical staff.

    But, like Inspector Columbo, I just have a few more questions, if you please.

    Maybe I - we - are too close to the situation but does it appear to you that the BOS starting rotation has proportionately more injuries or DL visits than other teams?

    I am especially baffled by the stress fracture that has now ended Buch's season. Then there is Dice-K's arm, which I believe to have been blown out in the WBC two seasons back (and no one picked it up and Dice-K was not forthcoming about it.)

    Is there something that the conditioning or medical staff is missing, or incomplete?  Is the regimen to be faulted, or is it the people, or is it the FO just going with a bad system?

    And moon, harness, Burrito, feel free to chime in and call me wrong, but I get the sense that something is wrong with this picture. Thanks.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Great posts, katz.

    summer: I am not sure why we have a rash of injuries. I am not sure it has anything to do with our medical staff of conditioning. Many of the pitchers that are hurt had previous injury records. Buch's is surprising. I do not think Dice-K's was.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Just catching up here and I have a few observations... Any GM with the means would have made the offer Theo made to Lackey. Name me a team that could not use a 14 win per season starting pitcher. Lackey has not been as good as I had hoped, but he hasn't been the bust he's been portrayed either. I'd come down closer to Harness on this one, we've gotten pretty close to what we should have expected. He wasn't going to morph into a 17-20 game winner all of a sudden, nor has he regressed into a liability either. His theatrics aside, he is a competitor, and when healthy, give his team a chance to win most of his starts. The Navarro discussion is simply wasted words at this point, and any argument about who was right and who was wrong is more the style of Softy than the other good posters here. The Red Sox obviously did not view him as essential to this year's goals and thus deemed him expendable. I still think that we could use a defensive upgrade over Scutaro at the most important defensive position, but I doubt that Navarro would be that upgrade. Ironically, since we started the weak defense at short discussion a week to ten days ago, Scutaro has been playing his best defense of the season, yesterday's error notwithstanding. I think Theo deserves some credit for bolstering the 25 man roster without losing any primary prospects. Bedard's track record indicates that he can pitch when healthy and I would much rather see him with the ball than Andrew Miller. All the Lackey/Wake bashers who think they win games because of good fortune and even better offense, and in spite of themselves, need look no further than to Andrew Miller as the luckiest pitcher on the roster.  Bad news on Buchholz, and the trend over the last couple of seasons with regards to our medical staff's inability to nail down diagnoses is troubling. I don't pretend to have any medical savvy whatsoever so I don't have a better solution, but this is not good news. It's remarkable that we've done as well as we have with the current rotation. I haven't heard or read much about this lately but I know Texas made some big additions to their bullpen yesterday while ours was virtually (maybe a weak starter sliding back there?) unchanged. But if there is a bullpen performing better that our group of Aceves, Albers, Wheeler, Bard and Paps, I'm not aware of it. The offense gets and deserves a lot of credit for our success, but that group, along with the two great starters, has been the backbone of this team. And finally guys, can't we all just get along? We've got a great thing going here you know!!
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]
    Boom was right that the Sox didn't think that much of Navarro, not enough to keep him. Perhaps we'll find out whether the Sox were right or wrong. That's the essence of right/wrong. Other posters wanted to see Navarro get a real chance in Boston. The Sox and Boom think he did get a chance, and flubbed it or didn't meet team expectations. Other posters might balk at that assessment. Otherwise, the dispute was about some matters of content and tone.
    Since Navarro did not play SS in Boston, we can't know whether he would have been an improvement on defense over Scutaro.  

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't know summer, we live in an age where a struggling batter gets diagnosed (long after the fact of his struggles) with having "twinges" "irritations" etc., ... seems this team has a lot of aches and pains. Even Lackey (who still is pitching) was being labeled as needing possible Tommy John surgery. And here he throws okay for a few games and waah-laaah no more talk about his arm.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Indeed. Thanks, moon.

    Thanks, Burrito.

    Clearly, I need to deal with ambiguity in life and in passions...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    John Lackey--
    2011--6.20 ERA, 1.52 WHIP. But he actually allows 15 baserunners per 9 innings pitched. 11.4 hits and he has 12 HBP so that is an average for him of above 1 per 9 innings. This is in 97 IP this year. It is a miracle that his record is 9-8, or a testament that the Sox offense has been brilliant for him. 

    I will say that in 2010, he sort of earned his salary in the respect that he threw 215 IP in 33 starts and was not injured. However, his ERA of 4.40 was higher than the previous six seasons with the Angels, which included his one great year when he had a 3.01 ERA, 224 IP, 19 wins in 2007. 

    In looking back at the 82 million spent and the timing, I have to say the league must have dumb-downed on what it felt was "marquee free agents." This guy didn't exactly impress in 2008 or 2009 when he was an often injured pitcher who threw just 51 starts. He certainly didn't deserve the money spent so harness i right that the expectations should have been far less by fans. Theo clearly was hoping the guy would exhibit more of 2007, less of '08, '09.

    We all should apologize to John Lackey, who is now exhibiting that he is a mediocre starting pitcher, and with park adjustments increasing his ERA by 2 runs and his whip by another .30, maybe it's time to just categorize Lackey as a waste of money. He ate innings in 2010, but he didn't pitch all that well, certainly not as effective as he did when he was THE ANGELS ACE STARTER. 

    It was unreasonable to think Lackey was a quality starter or a No. 3. Completely unrealistic to believe Theo had any other hopes from him than a 6.20 ERA, 15 baserunners allowed per 9 innings, 97 IP in 17 starts or 17 outs a start, which means he needs the last 10 outs of a game recorded by the bullpen. So now he's not an innings eater, his ERA and WHIP are woeful, and he is at best a No. 5 starter in production (Wakefield is actually better in all departments in terms of production, more innings per start, better WHIP, lower batting average against, lower ERA by 1.3)...

    I'm so sick of numbers dictating whether a guy is a winner or not. Lackey is a gamer, and sucks it up, and shows his emotions on the mound, and his numbers should be ignored due to the ballpark he calls home now, and other pitchers should also have their "worth" adjusted due to their home and road success, and if they throw in Anaheim rather than Fenway. Lackey wins and winners win. And that's what Steve Carlton did, and Jack Morris did, and I really don't want a Felix Hernandez out there. He doesn't win.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm sorry harness, you can apply whatever theory you want on Lackey and his production, and it still comes out a disappointment, far more in 2011. He just happens to be throwing a "little better" in 2 of his last 4 starts and the team won those 4 starts. It's a fluke. Unless he can pull it out of his butt and actually lower his runners allowed overall. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Andrew Miller wasn't dazzling v. the Chisox. He gets hit, he still walks people, and yet his stuff was outstanding. I think he should have thrown his fastball more v. Chicago, but Varitek called more for breaking balls because the command wasn't completely there for Miller. I see why the Sox are willing to wait it out and see if Miller can become a better SP than he's shown. He's got potential. Lackey is 32 years old now. He should still be in the prime of his pitching career at this age. And yet he has regressed badly since becoming a Sox pitcher.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    And herein lies the problem, Lackey was signed simply for this reason. He was the best available, but not the best for the team. The Yankees repeatedly make this mistake, signing the best available. 

    You have to sign FA based on how they can best serve the team, and that does not always mean they are the best overall player.

    Good points, Burrito. Such are the pitfalls of Free Agency.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    And you tell me folks. Lackey was a pro's pro in 2007, he was an ace. Was that just his one good year? If he didn't have that season, my guess is Theo never would have signed him. The league never would have marked him down as a top free agent pitcher in 2010 pre-season. He got 82 million and the Sox are paying for mediocrity.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    On the offensive side, it seems Crawford is competing with Lackey for what little he can offer his team for the most money.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]katz - would like to agree with your take on the medical staff. But, like Inspector Columbo, I just have a few more questions, if you please. Maybe I - we - are too close to the situation but does it appear to you that the BOS starting rotation has proportionately more injuries or DL visits than other teams? I am especially baffled by the stress fracture that has now ended Buch's season. Then there is Dice-K's arm, which I believe to have been blown out in the WBC two seasons back (and no one picked it up and Dice-K was not forthcoming about it.) Is there something that the conditioning or medical staff is missing, or incomplete?  Is the regimen to be faulted, or is it the people, or is it the FO just going with a bad system? And moon, harness, Burrito, feel free to chime in and call me wrong, but I get the sense that something is wrong with this picture. Thanks.
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]I am not sold on the idea that the RS are negligent in the management of their pitchers in terms of "pre-hab" or conditioning. To me this is a case of looking to assign blame when events take a bad turn.

    Dice K's elbow wore out on a time frame both in terms of age and IP that is consistent with the historical track record of many pitchers. After all he is a few months younger than the the guy the surgery he just had was named after was when he had it (Tommy John). TJ isn't something that is done pre-emptive, so the RS took the normal course of action after the WBC. They shut him down, worked on the conditioning of his base to take some load off of his joints once the inflammation went down. There is only so much one can do in terms of negating the break down that pitching causes.  

    Lackey came to the RS as damaged goods and has the clause in his contract to reflect it. And his problems are elbow related, similar to Dice K. This probably why Gammons was speculating about TJ for him. It is likely that at some point the tendons will give out and the replacement surgery will be the only option for extending his career.

    Buch's fracture doesn't really seem to happen very often to pitchers but just how it happened or even what it is isn't very clear just yet.

    Pitching is violent and unnatural act on the joints involved. The RS have been recognized as having a very good program for strengthening shoulder muscles, a key to reducing the risk of injury to the labrum and rotor cuff. For all that program credit seems to have been assigned to our former pitching coach by urban legend, I with think that it would have been a much more collaborative process with much of the input coming from medical and training personnel, than an ex-pitcher in his only only MLB front line coaching assignment.

    And it should be noted for all the hoopla the program received when it prevented Papelbon's career went up in smoke, it started before Farrell got here with Pedro Martinez and Curtis Montague Schilling being nursed along with known issues.

    Pitchers have been perishable commodities for years. It is why so many are drafted and promising prospects are held so closely. It is why pitch counts have become shorter and adhered to.

    Pitchers going through their careers being highly effective and without serious injury has been the exception and not the norm throughout baseball and throughout history. The greater use of 2 seamers and splitters only increases this factor IMO.

    It is more a case IMO of the RS having the misfortune of having the more probable injuries hit (Dice K, Lackey, Hill) in the same year that Buch had a freak injury and Lester pulled a muscle and Beckett twisted his knee.

    Could the medical staff have been more aggressive in shutdown guys sooner and delaying some of this? Perhaps but as you mention, even if the medical staff was more inclined that way than most team medical teams are, the players aren't terribly forth coming. They learn to play through pain early on and their manhood is judged inside the clubhouse and outside of it based on that. Dice K is guy you sited as having played through it. And then there is the reverse of course which is the grief that guys who are vocal and conservative about aches and pains get. Drew throughout his career, Ellsbury last year and Manny Ramirez all come to mind just in our world. 

    While many wish to assign blame for that, sometimes it is just bad luck. And in the case of 2011 RS it seems their pitching staff has experienced the perfect storm on year when we changed pitching coaches but I am not sold that those dots connect.

    Just my take
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I am not sold on the idea that the RS are negligent in the management of their pitchers in terms of "pre-hab" or conditioning. To me this is a case of looking to assign blame when events take a bad turn. Dice K's elbow wore out on a time frame both in terms of age and IP that is consistent with the historical track record of many pitchers. After all he is a few months younger than the the guy the surgery he just had was named after was when he had it (Tommy John). TJ isn't something that is done pre-emptive, so the RS took the normal course of action after the WBC. They shut him down, worked on the conditioning of his base to take some load off of his joints once the inflammation went down. There is only so much one can do in terms of negating the break down that pitching causes.   Lackey came to the RS as damaged goods and has the clause in his contract to reflect it. And his problems are elbow related, similar to Dice K. This probably why Gammons was speculating about TJ for him. It is likely that at some point the tendons will give out and the replacement surgery will be the only option for extending his career. Buch's fracture doesn't really seem to happen very often to pitchers but just how it happened or even what it is isn't very clear just yet. Pitching is violent and unnatural act on the joints involved. The RS have been recognized as having a very good program for strengthening shoulder muscles, a key to reducing the risk of injury to the labrum and rotor cuff. For all that program credit seems to have been assigned to our former pitching coach by urban legend, I with think that it would have been a much more collaborative process with much of the input coming from medical and training personnel, than an ex-pitcher in his only only MLB front line coaching assignment. And it should be noted for all the hoopla the program received when it prevented Papelbon's career went up in smoke, it started before Farrell got here with Pedro Martinez and Curtis Montague Schilling being nursed along with known issues. Pitchers have been perishable commodities for years. It is why so many are drafted and promising prospects are held so closely. It is why pitch counts have become shorter and adhered to. Pitchers going through their careers being highly effective and without serious injury has been the exception and not the norm throughout baseball and throughout history. The greater use of 2 seamers and splitters only increases this factor IMO. It is more a case IMO of the RS having the misfortune of having the more probable injuries hit (Dice K, Lackey, Hill) in the same year that Buch had a freak injury and Lester pulled a muscle and Beckett twisted his knee. Could the medical staff have been more aggressive in shutdown guys sooner and delaying some of this? Perhaps but as you mention, even if the medical staff was more inclined that way than most team medical teams are, the players aren't terribly forth coming. They learn to play through pain early on and their manhood is judged inside the clubhouse and outside of it based on that. Dice K is guy you sited as having played through it. And then there is the reverse of course which is the grief that guys who are vocal and conservative about aches and pains get. Drew throughout his career, Ellsbury last year and Manny Ramirez all come to mind just in our world.  While many wish to assign blame for that, sometimes it is just bad luck. And in the case of 2011 RS it seems their pitching staff has experienced the perfect storm on year when we changed pitching coaches but I am not sold that those dots connect. Just my take
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Thanks, katz, and a good take it is.

    I have maintained that Dice-K blew out his arm in the WBC in, oh, 2009?  But his reluctance to admit it just galled me. 

    And the conditioning program seems to have a sign that says, "To Be Continued."

    Thanks for letting me vent, too.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]And you tell me folks. Lackey was a pro's pro in 2007, he was an ace. Was that just his one good year? If he didn't have that season, my guess is Theo never would have signed him. The league never would have marked him down as a top free agent pitcher in 2010 pre-season. He got 82 million and the Sox are paying for mediocrity.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Geez, Cater, I think Theo developed a man-crush on Lackey when the Angels blew us out of the 2009 ALDS.  He was meant to be a #3 starter at best and Theo overpaid, but the market for starters was - is - always will be - one of irrational exuberance.




    "Oh, wait. You mean I've been throwing a four seam fastball using baseballs that only have two seams?  Whoa...."
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Thanks, katz, and a good take it is. I have maintained that Dice-K blew out his arm in the WBC in, oh, 2009?  But his reluctance to admit it just galled me.  And the conditioning program seems to have a sign that says, "To Be Continued." Thanks for letting me vent, too.
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]But he would have galled others if he came to RS in April of 2009 and asked to be shut down. He was doing what we expect athletes to do which is play through pain.

    Now his participating in WBC also caught it share of commentary in Boston. But while it is hard for us to relate how important representing his country would be to him as a Japanese citizen, it was. And MLB also wants to see guys like him participate.

    While one could find some fault with the lack of cooperation between the Japanese Nation team management and the RS let's keep in mind both Oswalt and Peavy also participated and suffered set backs after the WBC.

    At any rate, that appearance in 2009 may have accelerated the elbow issues but it is product of a lifetime of stress IMO and considering his workload before coming to Boston unless he was a rubber armed freak of nature it was an eventuality.  
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Japanese pitchers tend to break down eventually right. The workload is off the charts. It is surprising Matsuzaka lasted as long as he did. In hindsight, maybe we should have let him do the prep he was accustomed to as it sure seemed to work well for him in Japan. It seems like changing their routine doesn't seem like a good approach...i.e; Tazawa, Matsuzaka...etc.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We should see some September call ups soon. That will be fun. It would seem that Lavarnway is a given. Probably Iglesias also I would think. A couple more maybe. We have a lot of talent in the minors which could help us this year.

    Buchholz being on the DL ( EDIT: at the end of the year...Matsuzaka and Buchholz ) enables us to now potentially include 2 guys on the playoff roster who would not earlier have been eligible. For example, Lavarnway and Iglesias. I could see either as potentially being included depending upon further injuries. Especially Lavarnway as a RH hitter off the bench. I'm no expert on this but wouldn't Bedard be eligible anyway as long as he is on the 25 man roster soon. Also Aviles.

    Something has got to give. Some of these guys are going to be left off as Wakefield was a year or 2 ago.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Geez, Cater, I think Theo developed a man-crush on Lackey when the Angels blew us out of the 2009 ALDS.  He was meant to be a #3 starter at best and Theo overpaid, but the market for starters was - is - always will be - one of irrational exuberance. "Oh, wait. You mean I've been throwing a four seam fastball using baseballs that only have two seams?  Whoa...."
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE] In fairness Boom after the 2009 season the career stats of Lackey and Beckett were pretty close in terms of WHIP, ERA etc. So while we kick around #3 starter, that is broad brush. After all the number 3 starter on the Phillies is quite different than the number three starter on the Astros.

    And it wasn't just his performance against us, Lackey was pretty darn tough against the NYY that year.

    Over paid is always hard to define when you have the winning bid and a guy is not meeting or exceeding the team's and/or the fans expectations. Lackey's money and years based on his age was in line with Burnett's and DLowe's 2008 contracts.

    Over paid to me is Carl Crawford or the posting fee not the contract of Dice K.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : But he would have galled others if he came to RS in April of 2009 and asked to be shut down. He was doing what we expect athletes to do which is play through pain. Now his participating in WBC also caught it share of commentary in Boston. But while it is hard for us to relate how important representing his country would be to him as a Japanese citizen, it was. And MLB also wants to see guys like him participate. While one could find some fault with the lack of cooperation between the Japanese Nation team management and the RS let's keep in mind both Oswalt and Peavy also participated and suffered set backs after the WBC. At any rate, that appearance in 2009 may have accelerated the elbow issues but it is product of a lifetime of stress IMO and considering his workload before coming to Boston unless he was a rubber armed freak of nature it was an eventuality.  
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    That WBC and the impact it had on Pitchers was a wakeup call; unless you're Nolan Ryan (and even in his case, even Wilhelm); there's only so many pitches in an arm; it's not an inexhaustible supply; which makes what Satchel Paige did even more amazing (about 2K games, mostly CGs before his stint in MLB, and he did break down, but he was so good, he was still good ATF).

    Most of the time, those unusual pitchers who can go 30K IP use their legs more. Think Seaver, Ryan, Carlton, Spahn; some reverse examples: Gullett, Prior, and, unfortunately, Strasburg.

    On a smaller scale, something similar could be said about the HR Derby; mostly because it's been statistically proven to f--- with your mechanics.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I seem to recall that most expected Lackey to get $100M/5, and when his price fell to $85M, most felt it was too much, but a necessary "evil".

    The Smoltz-Penny experiment the season before perhaps changed Theo's thinking.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I would think that Bedard may well not help us at all but it was a gamble worth taking IMO. I'd give it about a 50/50 chance that he becomes our #3 or 4.
    I'm not down on Miller but that is a dangerous situation in the playoffs IMO. I hope he stays in the rotation even. I don't think we can send him down without potentially losing him if I remember correctly. Maybe passing the deadline precludes that. Not sure about his contract but I think he would be able to opt out. I think it would cost the other team a little moolah to do it though.

    Signing Bedard was a tough decision I would think. Chances are very good that we just threw away 2 good prospects and a low A guy who might end up being good some day. But they are going for it all this year. They had to roll the dice considering the injuries to the pitching staff and the poor performance so far of Lackey.
     

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