Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
posted at 8/2/2011 2:58 AM EDT
In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
ok, harness, to answer your question: Beckett on the Open Market....Beckett now has proven he's back to where he was an elite ace, something that was certainly in doubt when he signed the extension last year. 5 years-20 mil a year, 100 mil.... Now, back to wins and starters and expectations. Let's throw out the winning argument in terms of numbers of wins because we all have gone off point on this. It's not the number of wins you buy, it's the number of quality innings you buy. You purchase a starting pitcher with expectations of innings pitched, quality starts, low enough ERA/WHIP or a combination that equates to lower all runs against. Here's what you don't want--a guy who can't get your team into the 7th, a guy who has to spend the pen in the 3rd or 4th because you are incapable of stopping early bleeding, a guy who goes on the DL frequently thus making himself less useful, and a guy who when you send him to the mound the team has confidence that it can score enough runs that the SP can leave the game to the later pen with a lead.. Lackey? Well, 82 million....not spent for 14 wins a season, but spent for 200-plus innings for sure, and a reasonable expectation that he would be part of a majority of wins in his starts. Not 50-50. So the jury is out on him. How's that, harness? Now to be consistent, I don't think wins for a SP should go into the equation of that pitcher's worth. I really don't. Too many variables and I dismiss the thought.
Posted by dannycater
Again with the dismiss!
How many pitchers do you think win 50% of their starts?
Here's a clue: Josh Beckett has won 49% of his starts since coming to Boston.
Jon Lester has won 51%.
Lackey has won 51% this year. 45% since 2010.
If you have an issue with win averages or feel is is more of team function, then go by wins-per-start ratio. In Lackey's case, it still
averages out to 14 wins a year.
Think back to the era of 4-man rotations. If you recall, 300 wins got a pitcher into the HOF. If these wins were more team induced
, how come there weren't thousands of 300-win pitchers???
You'll find that a 300-game winner has supporting data, like solid ERA/WHIP/win-per-start ratio, etc. You will also find that over time, a pitcher who averages 14 wins a year will have corresponding data, as will a 17-game winner on the average, depending on league/venue/etc.
As for logging innings, Lakey was 2nd in IP per start last year.
This year, he missed two May starts and as Katz
be nursing a physical issue (elbow). Keep in mind, Becket threw 174 frames in in 2008. And 127 last year. Pitchers aren't machines. Lackey is not likely to log 200 IP every year.Dismiss
the salary issue and you'll see the forest for the trees...