Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
posted at 8/3/2011 1:52 AM EDT
In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
[QUOTE]Moon , you said "salary does not come into play when comparing starter's numbers". When the hell did I ever say they did? I'm saying the same thing you are. I'm telling DCATER to look beyond salary when evaluating Lackey. He isn't nor will he ever be what he or many others think his salary is perceived to indicate I think there is a misuderstanding here. I know you are not saying salary is a big issue, but I get the impression you think most of those criticizing Lackey are using his salary as a foundation of their position. Yes, someseem to be, but my point was that some of us do "see the forest for the trees" and it ain't a pretty site
. You are missing my point. I'm defending Lackey in 2010/11 for not being a bust . I'm also saying that his 14 wins/4.40 ERA run true to from, venue adjusted. This year, at least the first two months, he is what Josh was last year. Josh didn't deserve the #4/5 spot last year any more than Lackey does this year. Get it? Yes, Lackey did come close to expectations once adjusted for park and stronger opps, but then you extended it to 14 wins 6.20 ERA / 1.55 is true or near true to form as well
. It is not, and that is where we disagree. I do recall you saying Lackey might need an adjustment period to his new park, new catcher, etc.. Times up. If you give Josh a free pass last year because of his back, why don't you acknowledge Lackey's issues, especially his elbow over the first two months? I didn't give Josh a "free pass", but do accept that injury is a mitigating factor.
The fact that Josh seems to get hurt (and pitch hurt) often help the view that when he is not pitching well, it is because he is hurt, so he is a great pitcher almost always when healthy. I'm not sure I would say the same for Lackey. Lackey has had some past injuries as well, and this year I have heard everything from Tommy John, to shoulder, to family health issues. I am willing to give John the benefit of the doubt. I had to take his mound antics towards his teammates and manager with a grain of salt, but I am not convinced that a 4 game sampe size means much at all. I hope it does, but truthfully, I have about 5% faith in him as a quality3rd starter
in the playoffs. His numbers this year are horrible. His numbers since May are not quality 3rd starter material either. The only thing I see that is good about Lackey's season are his numbers the last 5 starts and the % of near QS starts. He is letting up 6+ runs per 9 innings and getting 6+ runs of support. It does not surprise me that he is at about a .500 winning %.
Posted by moonslav59
If you accept 2010 injury to Josh as a mitigating factor, then the same should hold true for Lackey.
And there are similarities.
Beckett in April/May (2010), pitching with a back issue:
45.6 IP 57 H 37 ER 7.30 ERA 1.667 WHIP
Lacket in April/May (2011), pitching with an elbow issue (2 Cort. shots in May).
49.3 IP 53 H 35 ER 6.39 ERA 1.440 WHIP
Beckett since his return off DL (2010):
82 IP 94 H 45 ER 4.94 ERA 1.463 WHIP
Lackey since his return from DL:
64.6 IP 78 H 37 ER 5.15 ERA 1.393 WHIP
This may be further indication of Lackey being/pitching hurt:
SO/BB ratio in April/May: 19 SO/18 BB (2 SO/10 BB in May)
SO/BB in June/July/August: 52 SO/ 12 BB (28 SO/ 3 BB July/Aug.).
You may recall the July 4th "fireworks" vs. Toronto: He got lit up and said "I was looking for help but didn't get any". Typical Lackey. What he was referring to was the fact he had no command whatsoever of any of his breaking stuff. He didn't know how to correct the problem (mechanical). Isn't that Young's job? To point out something so flagrant? Yeah, it was a direct slight on Young, but pitching coaches are supposed to know the mechanics of their pitchers like the back of their hands.
This is the only time I ever saw Lackey with just
his FB command. Hitters were sitting dead red. 2.3 IP 9 H 7 ER. Beyond this outing, these are Lackey's numbers HEALTHY in 2011: 62.3 IP 69 H 30 ER 4.33 ERA 1.300 WHIP
Lackey in 2010: 215 IP 230 H 105 ER 4.40 ERA 1.419 WHIP
(Note: Lackey's WHIP after May of 2010 (June - Sept.) was 1.344.
I think the first two month last year were the biggest transition).
Now, if you want to call Lackey a 6.10 ERA/1.548 WHIP pitcher and think that's looking at the forest for the trees
, good luck. That means Josh was a 5.78 ERA/1.535 WHIP in 2010. To me, Becket was 4.93 ERA/1.463 healthy, or healthier
last year, and I believe he was compromised to a degree by VMART.
I don't measure a player hurt/playing hurt. Sorry.
As for his perceived #3 status when signed, Dice was a #2 perceived signing. Buch surpassed both. I saw him projected around 15 wins/ 4.25 ERA/ 1.3-1.35 WHIP in Fenway.
17 mil on the open market buys just that. That is a "distant" #3 on the Redsox.
With Buch down and Bedard an unknown, Lackey's numbers HEALTHY
still put him in that position, at least until Bedard passes him.
Cue the "cherry-picking"...