Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
posted at 8/31/2011 10:51 PM EDT
In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III
[QUOTE]What I find interesting is the gray area involved weighing out home advantage against venue, considering the player's ability/swing type. IMO, some players thrive on home cooking. But more often than not, venue dimensions will over-ride it when they are extreme. AGONE in Petco/Fenway is a strong example. I agree. My point is that when looking at home-away splits, one can not attribute 100% of every player's differential to venue.
It is very likely that with most players, just being home is at least a small part of the equation. It would be interesting to go back and see how George Scott, Fisk, Lynn and others did at Fenway after they were traded away. Of course, some were dealt after prime, so how much of the decline is prime related vs venue/home-away related?
Posted by moonslav59
When discussing statistical averages, virtually nothing is 100% on the surface.
It's hard to tell where home advantage and personal skill-set end...and venue begins. Nor is CERA 100%. The disparity we see could be smaller, or greater.
Comparative studies can allow for a window. Lynn and Fisk had no home venue advantage once leaving Boston. To me, that's reflective of venue, because they played in front of the home crowd half their games but didn't produce as they did in Fenway. (Keep in mind, Fisk played in a pitcher's park).
Scott, OTOH, maintained his home advantage numbers with the Brewers. I don't know if their stadium is neutral, or it favors one or the other.
I also wasn't aware that he ended his career with the Yankees.
Getting back to what you said about a team scoring/allowing 350 runs as opposed to 550 having an advantage, I think it's because of how pitching dominates.
A pitcher can throw 10 games, pitch 8 really good ones and get lit up in the other two, and the ERA is more reflective of those two games. So, he could go 7-3 with a 4 ERA, despite allowing no more than 2-3 runs for 8 QS's.
The hitting would be less likely
to have many runaway romps due to their limited skill-set. Thus, the RF/RA being even would likely favor wins over losses.