A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Wake simply does not do well at all - I wish you guys could admit that. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    Compared to who? Lackey? Miller? Burnett? 33 other 5th/6th  starters in MLB?

    Wake has not done "well" overall, but he has done better than you and others give him credit for, and in the context of this, he's still a keeper.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Moon, I remember being surprised and shocked when the RS went after CC.  I thought he was a great player but essentially duplicating Ells and several others we have in the minors, not the big right handed bat I thought we might pursue.  Of course I have been discouraged that he didn't do better this summer.  In light of money spent, Berkman or Chavez look like great deals now for bench help.  I think our RF will be stronger next year, either with Reddick and more experience or someone else.  Hopefully CC will ease into his 2nd year feeling more comfortable with his surroundings, expectations, etc.  Boom, did we draft any power hitting right fielders?  Seems like an area on which we should focus.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    i have to admit i got swept up by Reddick, but moon was the one who warned everyone about his career splits and career tracking. The guy is not ever going to be an every day player, he doesn't have the ability or staying power. He can be a career reserve however, and he could play with the Sox in that capacity. For all the trashing we usually do of Drew, I find him coming back to be refreshing. That's pretty sad considering, and it's an indication of just how much Reddick has dropped off the map (Darnell not helping himself much either).
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Katz, since Wake does not do well with extra days rest, my idea was to give him one extended break at some point in the year, then put him back into a routine. That way he only has one time to get back into the rythym. Giving him 2-3 days here and there is worse IMO.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Well looking at the schedule he will be getting about 10 games off. If he pitches well and Miller doesn't I would assume he goes back into the rotation. If he gets bombed, he doesn't. If both Miller and Wake pitch well? Anybody's call. I don't know how it could be any other way.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Danny I agree that Reddick has come back to the pack a bit, but I don't agree that it means he can't be a full-time MLB outfielder. He has a great swing, good speed, has a good glove and a strong arm, essentally all the tools. But he is young and it doesn't take MLB pitchers long to find the weaknesses, especially when a young player is going off like Reddick was earlier. Now it's Reddick's turn to adjust to the adjustments and we'll see how he progresses. I agree wholeheartedly that with the games about to become more meaningful that Drew is the better option going forward. Drew may not have any staying power beyond this season, but I do believe he has another solid playoff in him as his last hurrah.
    As an aside, I keep pulling for McDonald to relive last season's exploits, but it just isn't there. The two key at bats last night were him and Salty both getting themselves out on pitches outside the strike zone with the bases loaded.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

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    jidge, Reddick has not done well overall in any of his MLB stints, that's not a good sign. He had one torrid month, and is trying to make up for that torrid month in the other direction...not a MLB full-timer, Kalish looked better.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The situation in OF is instructional about just how much you can plan ahead for your roster from within.

    Coming out of the 2010 season the RS looked like they had at least one OF prospect ready for 2012. Reddick ended up getting his shot in 2011 and has run hot and cold and likely is going to a LH version of Francouer "light". Kalish has had a lost year and is not likely ready to make the jump to MLB. At SS lots of folks assumed it was Iggy's job in 2012. That isn't going to happen either.

    Projecting 1 or more years out with all but the most remarkable talents is throwing darts at a dart board with a blindfold on. Even then injury can put all that on hold like Strasburg.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

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    As for the Wake/Miller debate, the discussion is really about who is going to help lessen the load off Beckett, Lester, Lackey and Bedard leading up to the playoffs as I doubt that either Miller or Wake will be on a playoff roster. All six will get starts between now and then, but all with an eye towards having the front four ready and rested for the playoffs. Regardless of how some of us see Lackey, he will be at least part of the four. He may not crack the top three, but he will be number four.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    five, let's be real. There is no way Wakefield gets back into the rotation after the Toronto start. The hope for Tito is he wins his 200th, and then he announces at a presser that Wake will be a pen option the rest of the season and possibly the playoffs. It will take the pressure off of Tito, and he will get his ultimate wish, which ironically is softy's wish. That he ends his run as a Red Sox SP.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

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    Danny I liked Kalish better as well; I feel he is the more well-rounded player. But I still see both as being able to play in MLB, whether or not it is in Boston. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Hard to tell what will happen with Ryan K. It says a lot about guys like Mike Greenwell, Ellis Burks, Fred Lynn, Dwight Evans, and Ellsbury. The amount of Red Sox outfielders who have sustained themselves in Boston from the organization roots is becoming alarmingly low. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I caught a lot of grief for saying we should be cautious about Reddick being "the real deal". That being said, I am confident one of our OF prospects 0r Reddick will be very helpful on next year's roster. When you want to win though, it's hard to "count on it" happening.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]What I find interesting is the gray area involved weighing out home advantage against venue, considering the player's ability/swing type. IMO, some players thrive on home cooking. But more often than not, venue dimensions will over-ride it when they are extreme. AGONE in Petco/Fenway is a strong example. I agree. My point is that when looking at home-away splits, one can not attribute 100% of every player's differential to venue.It is very likely that with most players, just being home is at least a small part of the equation. It would be interesting to go back and see how George Scott, Fisk, Lynn and others did at Fenway after they were traded away. Of course, some were dealt after prime, so how much of the decline is prime related vs venue/home-away related?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    When discussing statistical averages, virtually nothing is 100% on the surface.
    It's hard to tell where home advantage and personal skill-set end...and venue begins. Nor is CERA 100%. The disparity we see could be smaller, or greater.

    Comparative studies can allow for a window. Lynn and Fisk had no home venue advantage once leaving Boston. To me, that's reflective of venue, because they played in front of the home crowd half their games but didn't produce as they did in Fenway. (Keep in mind, Fisk played in a pitcher's park).

    Scott, OTOH, maintained his home advantage numbers with the Brewers. I don't know if their stadium is neutral, or it favors one or the other.
    I also wasn't aware that he ended his career with the Yankees.

    Getting back to what you said about a team scoring/allowing 350 runs as opposed to 550 having an advantage, I think it's because of how pitching dominates.
    A pitcher can throw 10 games, pitch 8 really good ones and get lit up in the other two, and the ERA is more reflective of those two games. So, he could go 7-3 with a 4 ERA, despite allowing no more than 2-3 runs for 8 QS's.

    The hitting would be less likely to have many runaway romps due to their limited skill-set. Thus, the RF/RA being even would likely favor wins over losses.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Did you enjoy the game the game tonight Harness?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

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    Not when it was 5-4. Not when Reddick mis-played that bounce.
    Endure is a better word when there's so much on the line.
    When I view the replay tonight, I'll have the luxury of enjoying it.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Good points all around, harness.

    I do rememeber Fisk killed the Sox in Fenway after he left here...at least the first few years. That certainly supports the claim that with him, it was more venue than "home cooking".
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]five, let's be real. There is no way Wakefield gets back into the rotation after the Toronto start. The hope for Tito is he wins his 200th, and then he announces at a presser that Wake will be a pen option the rest of the season and possibly the playoffs. It will take the pressure off of Tito, and he will get his ultimate wish, which ironically is softy's wish. That he ends his run as a Red Sox SP.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]Since there isn't anything to back that take up but gut an your feelings about Wake, I can't really counter point that. Miller had two great outinngs, Wake his two worst. There aren't a lot of games left on the schedule. If the positions reverse in the next two starts, the spot starter/bullpen role flips again IMHO.

    To you this is personal, IMO to RS it is all about business at this point and I don't think anybody enjoys the fact that Wake's recent performances did not cement his place in the rotation.

    Unlike a lot of posters, the manager and the rest of the organization doesn't root against themselves based on personal feelings IMO.


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III


    Reddick may have misplayed that ball tonight, but overall I think he's a great defensive player.....Drew, or no Drew.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Fun fact of the night:

    Jason Varitek now has as many home runs in 2011 as Joe Mauer has in 2010-2011 combined.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Some interesting numbers on Lynn though:

    '81 Cal  H: .760/A: .522 (.333 in Fenway) 29 years old
    '82 Cal  H: .885/A: .897 (.918)
    '83 Cal  H: .889/A: .782 (.333)
    '84 Cal  H: .832/A: .847 (1.271)
    '85 Bal  H: .845/A: .733  (4 PAs 0/4) Injury year
    '86 Bal  H: .884/A: .855  (1 for 1)
    '87 Bal  H: .751/A: .859  (.588)
    '88 Bal  H: .818/A: .742 (1.302 in 9 PAs)
    '89 Det  H .728/A .671 (1.133)
    '90 SD  H .636/A .721 ( 0 PAs)
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]i have to admit i got swept up by Reddick, but moon was the one who warned everyone about his career splits and career tracking. The guy is not ever going to be an every day player, he doesn't have the ability or staying power. He can be a career reserve however, and he could play with the Sox in that capacity. For all the trashing we usually do of Drew, I find him coming back to be refreshing. That's pretty sad considering, and it's an indication of just how much Reddick has dropped off the map (Darnell not helping himself much either).
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Completely disagree. Reddick has 5-tool potential and will be an everyday player. I saw him as Drew's replacement in '09 and nothing has changed my mind. He's a bit cocky, as gifted players are. He has the ability to make the necessary adjustments the league has to with him since his torrid stretch.

    He should be a keeper. Theo resisted trading him for Bedard initially, and I say time will prove that decision to be a prudent one.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Fun fact of the night: Jason Varitek now has as many home runs in 2011 as Joe Mauer has in 2010-2011 combined.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Now that's funny!


    To DC: I made my last post to you before I saw Jid's, which essentially said the same thing.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Amp I might not go as far as to call Reddick "great" defensively just yet but he has above average speed, gets solid jumps and makes good reads. And nobody who is going to spend any length of time in RF in Fenway isn't going eventually have the ball take an uneven bounce of that concrete on the lower portion of the RF coner and look stupid as the ball gets by him and the runners run home.

    Reddick's long term ceiling won't be limited by his defense IMHO. It will be all about find a balance between selectivity and hitting for average. His 2011 stats were in conflict with his early call-up stats. The adjustments were bound to be made and now it is on him to make them. If Drew hits a lick with his high OBP and "professional PAs" he could play his way back into the line-up as the primary LH RF.

    I am not ready to proclaim Reddick's future yet as some posters either way. The sample sets were always small in the past and very few guys don't have some peaks and valleys when they get regular PT at the highest level.

    Personally I always have thought that Kalish was the more polished of the two guys, not that his MLB stay was an eye dropping can't miss performance. But at his age it seemed 2011 in AAA would have made him much more ready for the jump. But that is very subjective.

    I don't doubt that the RS will fill RF internally (at least the LH platoon role). But that is going to be function of finance and suplly and demand and could be as nagging an issue as elevating Buchholz to the starting rotation was in 2008 or for that matter as RF has been in 2011. Are the RS deep enough to win regardless of it? It is IMHO they can.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Overall Reddick has shown improvement in his game at every level.  With that said he can be very streaky, but this year he has shown great progress at the plate in terms of discipline.

    I don't think he will ever be a .300 hitter or a .400 OBP guy.  But I think he has the potential to be a solid player.  a .270 hitter who can hit 30 HR.... and his arm is made for RF.  If he can make the same progression next year as he has the last two, then I'd say the RF job is his. 
     

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