A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    the year in question was during a down era for hitting, but hey Reddick had a higher OPS and he's the cat's meow...unbelievable. Maybe when you little children grow up, you'll realize that Dewey was a bonus baby and destined to be a star in the AL. He already was the league's top 3 OFs by his 2nd and 3rd full seasons. Reddick is...just another OF in the big leagues who is not a regular, and occupies his spot because Drew can't turn to his right without pulling a muscle or breaking a bone.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The comparison isn't really outlandish. I think the demeanor of Reddick/Evans is worlds apart. That goes a long way in determining output.

    Evans would have been in the HOF, IMO, if he had connected with Ralph Houk a few years earlier. Evans said it was Houk who turned his career around.

    Reddick has 30 HR potential. But he's cocky, and nobody knows how long the maturation process will take. But the skills are there.

    It's as evident as the fact Burrito's an azz.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    the year in question was during a down era for hitting, but hey Reddick had a higher OPS and he's the cat's meow...unbelievable. Maybe when you little children grow up, you'll realize that Dewey was a bonus baby and destined to be a star in the AL. He already was the league's top 3 OFs by his 2nd and 3rd full seasons. Reddick is...just another OF in the big leagues who is not a regular, and occupies his spot because Drew can't turn to his right without pulling a muscle or breaking a bone.
    Posted by dannycater


    They called Dewey up about 2 years before Lynn and Rice, but they were all about the same age. That tells me something.

    I really don't think people are saying Reddick is or will be as good as Dewey, but just that you can't always judge by the first 400 PAs or so.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Well, we're still on Reddick so I'll kick something in again.  A year ago at this time we were hearing that Ells was a selfish Wuss who couldn't play with pain, his teammates were down on him, Theo would probably trade him to a NL team, he wasn't really much of an outfielder anyway, and he didn't hit a high enough average to be a lead off guy--and I didn't buy any of this by the way.  Now we hear he's in the running for MVP, he's going to drive in 100 runs as a lead off hitter, he makes outstanding plays in the OF every night, he's suddenly hitting for power, etc. etc. etc.  I think he played on the 07 Championship team.  That's four years.  Give Reddick four years and then let's evaluate.  He's not a bum and he's not Teddy Ballgame, but if he doesn't get traded I think he's got the skills to be a good player.  I don't see comparing  him to Dewey; at this juncture I don't think they're much alike, but I think in the end he can be as good defensively as Dewey if he keeps growing and offensively I think he brings a broader range of skills.  It's all about how he develops now that he's in the majors.  My whole point is that last year lots of people were calling for Ells' head.  Thank God Theo has a little more patience.  Same with this kid.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Good point, Crit. I never bought into the Jake-wuss hyperbole Softone was spewing. I do think Evans was exceptional in RF: One of the best ever. I don't see Reddick going there. But, comparatively speaking, I do see him hitting at a more advanced pace at this point in his career.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't see it. I saw a very hot streak. I am not yet convinced he can even stay in the majors. I see big upside, but he's a tough player to project. He had such awful numbers for long stretches in the minors. He's had long tough strecthes in teh majors as well.

    I love his defense and arm, but if I had to guess, I'd say he will probably not come close to having just one season as good as Dewey's average ML season:

    (162 gm avg)

    .272   24  86  (.370 OBP/.470 Slg%) 91 runs and 35 (2B+3Bs)

    I hope I am wrong.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't see him having the years Evans had in the 2nd half of Dewey's career.
    But I think he'll easily out-hit Dewey's first half. His hot streak entailed some power and solid contact and plate diversity. That means he has the skills. And I'll bet he has the ability to make the adjustments. His motivation is more an issue to me.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not convinced
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    He hasn't played long enough to be convincing. Time will tell it.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I don't see him having the years Evans had in the 2nd half of Dewey's career. But I think he'll easily out-hit Dewey's first half. His hot streak entailed some power and solid contact and plate diversity. That means he has the skills. And I'll bet he has the ability to make the adjustments. His motivation is more an issue to me.
    Posted by harness


    Out of the top 30 RF'ers from 1972 to 1981 (Dewey's first half of his career), Dewey was rated 8th in WAR.

    His offensive numbers were certainly not as good as his second half, but they were still pretty good:

    .265  21 HRs  73 RBI  (.352/.456/.808 OPS) 

    I'd be happy if Reddick could average this over his whole career.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Dewey's 2nd half of his career numbers (162 games)

    .277  25  97  (.382/.481/.863)  100 runs

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from S0ftl@w. Show S0ftl@w's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Thank God Theo has a little more patience. Same with this kid.                                  

    142M on Crawford isnt patience, but is a good example of why career years must be taken in the context of lineup. Good night to all my friends at circle jerk thread of two clueless board bullies.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Moon, I should have been more specific. When I think Evans, I think of pre-Houk vs. post-Houk. From pre-Houk, Evans averaged around 16-17 dingers a season (i.e. his average pre-Houk season, not a 162-game season). His BA/OBP/SLG/OPS were dramatically different from his post Houk numbers.

    That's why I say Reddick will easily out-produce Evans from those pre-Houk days.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Guys why was Lester pulled after only 5? ESPN Asia showed the Nationals rather than the Yankees game so before I go off on the Sox pulling starters to ealry I need to know what happened.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    He threw 18,000 pitches - and needed the extra wind to blow out all the candles.
    Hope you enjoyed the Nationals.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    UR the only loon laughing. Now, if you really want the dope on Lester, try looking it up on the BDC home page: EXTRABASES/scoreboard/box.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Just as I thought, pulled early in one of the most important games of the year... should have been allowed to go another inning.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Moon , I should have been more specific. When I think Evans, I think of pre-Houk vs. post-Houk. From pre-Houk, Evans averaged around 16-17 dingers a season (i.e.  his average pre-Houk season, not a 162-game season). His BA/OBP/SLG/OPS were dramatically different from his post Houk numbers. That's why I say Reddick will easily out-produce Evans from those pre-Houk days.
    Posted by harness


    Didn't Houk start in 1981?  That won't change the data too much by taking one year away. (Even though it was his best OPS year it was the shortened season). 

    Regardless, I don't think he will "easily out produce" that era of Evans. He might, but if I had to guess, I think he will be a good platoon player if he stays here.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Just as I thought, pulled early in one of the most important games of the year... should have been allowed to go another inning.
    Posted by BurritoT


    Disagree, Burrito.  Lester threw 114 pitches in 5 innings.  At that pace he would have been over 130 pitches by the time he got through the 6th.  Not a good idea.

    Tito thought he could get 2 scoreless from Aceves.  He brought Bard in to try to bail Aceves out.  Neither worked this time.  But it was good percentage managing.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't see Aceves getting a break - he is pitching a lot. You need a bullpen to be in good shape for the play-offs too.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I don't see Aceves getting a break - he is pitching a lot. You need a bullpen to be in good shape for the play-offs too.
    Posted by BurritoT


    Yeah, I think they're going to have to get him some rest.  We will need him in the postseason big-time.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Lester's only on pace for about 180 IP. I think he could have gone one more, but if the pen did its job nobody would be complaining too much today.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We will not carry 12 pitchers in the playoffs. We could probably do with 10 for the first round.

    I see this as our playoff roster (barring injury or complete meltdowns):

    14 position players:
    Papi
    Salty VTek
    AGon
    Pedey
    Scutty
    Aviles
    Youk Lowrie
    Crawford
    DMac
    Ellsbury
    Reddick Drew

    (possibles: Lavarnway, Jackson, Sutton, & Iglesias)

    11 pitchers:
    S1 Beckett
    S2 Lester
    S3 Bedard
    S4 Lackey

    5MR Aceves
    6MR Miller

    7SR Papelbon
    8SR Bard
    9SR Wheeler
    10SR
    Albers
    11SR
    Morales

    (possibles:
    Buchholtz, Wake, Jenks, & Williams)

    Grey = chance not on roster.

    ___________________________


     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Lester's only on pace for about 180 IP. I think he could have gone one more, but if the pen did its job nobody would be complaining too much today.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I don't think this was about the IP though, I think it was about his pitch count in the game.  To get through the 6th would have put him at around 130 pitches, maybe more.  Lester has only ever thrown 130 pitches once, that was the no-hitter.

    Cue the pitch count debate now, I guess. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't want to start a "pitch count debate", but he had settled down nicely after a long 1st inning. He also could have been taken out after one or two batters in the 6th.

    I don't want to burn Lester out, but...
     
    1) He had an extra day off before 2 of his previous 3 starts and this was the Yankees.

    2) He only had 87 pitches vs Oakland his last start.

    I do not think 120-130 pitches would have hurt at all.
     
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