A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    And the thing is, I'll bet Theo/FO thought the world of VMART as a teammate and individual. He only fell out of favor as a receiver. He is a gamer and that has to be respected.

    On Miller, I figure he had an outside shot at pitching a possible game 4 in the second round, but he'd have to really show something over the final few weeks. No way he'd get the game 3 start over Bedard.
    He still can impact by being a lefty specialist if he doesn't fight the role. And he does offer the rotation depth otherwise.

    TX was humiliated by Boston in front of their home fans, so I expected them to be highly motivated. Besides, it's tough on a pitcher to repeat such a great outing against the very team who just saw him.

    The game is about making adjustments. Outside the game as well.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Some little things to cover:

    1) We keep bringing in guys who struggle on other teams hoping for a turnaround with us. Hermida, Aviles, Conor, Miller...et. It's almost always a mixed bag where we get hopeful but are in the end disappointed. Salty could be slotted in that group but maybe he ends up a positive, as could Miller, but it's hard to count on a member of that group. I suppose it is part of the game and we should be thankful that Henry is willing to open his wallet for those opportunities but I'd rather use the cash for players with higher success potential.

    It's hard not to see Miller as a high upside guy worth the risk though. But then again that appeared to be the case with Hermida also. If it were physical tools only then lots of guys would be in the show who are not. The intangibles and the "make up" are where scouts should be spending their time in such instances. Hang around the local bar after games to get the real scoop. In some instances such info could prove to be invaluable.

    2) There continues to be a "buzz" around A level SS prospect Xander Bogaerts. It's unusual for an 18 year old to crack the soxprospects top 10 but the guy has created that buzz with his performances so far in the minors. The below article puts him in the same paragraph as guys like Mike Stanton and Bryce Harper? He has good pop in A ball but his swing looks long to me and his strikeout to walk ratio is still very high. Doesn't seem to get good leverage with his bottom half. He is extremely raw. Nonetheless, he clearly has tons of potential, ergo the buzz:


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We might have more solid infield prospects right now than I can remember in recent memory. To be honest, overall position player prospects look extremely strong to me. My concern is still with the pitchers coming up. Is Ranaudo really as good as is being projected? Britton and Pimentel tanked this year. Hernandez looks decent but not spectacular. Wilson the same. I'm not feeling it for virtually any pitcher in the organization right now. ( Edit: I left out Wieland but even he is not an exciting prospect worthy with potential to be a #1 or 2, or even a 3 or 4 IMO ). My hope is that some of the guys just drafted can make an impact.

    At the same time, Coyle, Bogaerts, Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Head, Jacobs, Brentz, Iglesias and Lavarnway are all guys who could emerge to help the big club as starting level position players ( excluding top prospects from last year's draft like Swihart ).

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    2 other guys I left off the above projections list are Doubront and Bowden. It looks like a lot of guys have given up on Bowden. That 94 mph 4 seamer is pretty straight and he has had difficulty maximizing a decent curveball. He has always had decent control but his fastball is just not that great if it misses even a little. 

    With that said, the guy could continue to develop his skill level with what he has to offer and become a good pitcher IMO. He needs to become an off speed, deception kind of guy but he just might not have that in him. His delivery seems to give the hitters maximum view of the baseball as he delivers it. it's almost like he wants to show them the baseball all the way through the delivery.

    What he needs is a trade to San Diego and he probably would win 14 games for them! He needs to keep the ball in the park when his fastball gets over the plate and a place like SD or Seattle would work wonders for him. Can he develop more and learn to keep hitters off balance? Should we slot him with Tek to help in that regard? He may do fairly well if he can stay away from gopher balls. He seems to have better mlb numbers this year than he does minor league numbers. I think the guy is probably a journeyman MLB player, not a journeyman minor league guy. Just my opinion and it is a long term projection. He's still around 24 isn't he? He is still worth something IMO.

    Doubront is now bringing it up there at 95 mph? The guy still looks like he is on the Dunkin donuts diet but he has some skill, some poise and to be completely honest he might be our best pitching prospect overall IMO. I'm not sold on Ranaudo yet. If I had to pick between the two I might actually take Doubront. I'm like in the 10% minority on that one probably. Ranaudo certainly has more potential but will he realize it? He still has a long way to go and Doubront is pretty close to really helping us if he can stay healthy.

    Never let it be said that I wasn't willing to take the road less traveled. I recognize that few here would be talking about Bowden and Doubront in this manner. Comparing Doubront at the same level as Ranaudo at this point. Scandelous! Outrageous! I'm just calling them as I see them and I'll live with the criticism. I absolutely hope Ranaudo and Doubront both emerge as tremendous pitchers but both are still projects. Both may be great or both could wash out. If I had to bet on one right now, all other things being equal, I'd have to take Doubront.

    I remember looking at Doubront's numbers when he was 17 and pitching in the Venezuela league. He was tearing it up back then, even at 17. He's better than people think. He's left handed and he seems to already know what he is doing on the mound. He is a valuable commodity, as is Ranaudo   
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Dewey repeated it several times. He said Houk turned his game around. Who better to know? Yaz said Houk was the best mgr. he ever played for. I think maybe Houk came across as a father figure to some.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    That's not surprising. Thanks for the info. I did not recall that. I agree, if Houk had some of the teams others had, we might have had a ring or two before Tito.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Boom, great updates on the kids.  What's up with Tejada?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Guys I may be wrong about my timeline, but didn't Walter HriniaK (however you spell his name?) have a lot of influence on Evans, and maybe even Yaz late in his career?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Guys I may be wrong about my timeline, but didn't Walter HriniaK (however you spell his name?) have a lot of influence on Evans, and maybe even Yaz late in his career?
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]

    Yes, Evans and Gedman are two of Hriniak's most famous pupils.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Tejeda has come back to his career norms this year. I don't know what got into him last year but he has been unable to keep it up. He is dropping in the depth charts but fortunately we have a lot of studs behind him rising fast.

    I couldn't see the game today. Had to work. Did Reddick get hurt bad? Must have had a decent game overall. Did he celebrate his day too much and then get nailed because of it? What a stupid baseball tradition. Guys should be able to celebrate some. When they drill people for that reason it's BS to me. 

    Teams are playing hardball with the Sox. We open the series with the Yankees and what is the first thing they do...nail Ellsbury. This stuff just hurts the game IMO.

    Bedard is as advertised apparently. I don't like that kind of trade normally ( Remember the Anderson deal way back there? ) but I supported this one. Bedard is a solid pitcher when we can get him on the field. Imagine how much he could help us if we could keep him healthy all year? I hope we can resign the guy, to a reasonable contract.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I read today some good press on Bowden. I thought he was still throwing a curveball as that is what it looked like to me! I didn't realize the splits against RH with like a .121 BA against. That is outstanding. Maybe he makes the PO roster even if he keeps it up.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I doubt Bowden will make the PO squad. In fact, he's at a point where he may become trade bait if he doesn't show something tangible over a period of time.
    He may be running out of time. If Boston can't give this kid the chance to exceed, let someone else give him a better shot. I still think he can start - he's got the pitch expansion. Reminds me of Marty Pattin (sp?).
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Hey, Tazawa is coming back, and as of Sept 1. ----2011 brings us 83 wins (now 84), only exceeded by Red Sox teams in 1946 (91), 1912 (87), and 1978, alas, that dreaeded bucky friggun dent, (84)
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Tejeda has come back to his career norms this year. I don't know what got into him last year but he has been unable to keep it up. He is dropping in the depth charts but fortunately we have a lot of studs behind him rising fast. I couldn't see the game today. Had to work. Did Reddick get hurt bad? Must have had a decent game overall. Did he celebrate his day too much and then get nailed because of it? What a stupid baseball tradition. Guys should be able to celebrate some. When they drill people for that reason it's BS to me.  Teams are playing hardball with the Sox. We open the series with the Yankees and what is the first thing they do...nail Ellsbury. This stuff just hurts the game IMO. Bedard is as advertised apparently. I don't like that kind of trade normally ( Remember the Anderson deal way back there? ) but I supported this one. Bedard is a solid pitcher when we can get him on the field. Imagine how much he could help us if we could keep him healthy all year? I hope we can resign the guy, to a reasonable contract.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Boom I think our pitchers have hit the opps about 15-20 more times than we have been bonked.



     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    moonslav, absolutely right.  And most of the time it's because our guys lose control.  Sometimes it's intentional, but not very often.  I think intentional HBP's are baloney. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III



    Yes, looks like Marty Pattin...great memory jog.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]moonslav, absolutely right.  And most of the time it's because our guys lose control.  Sometimes it's intentional, but not very often.  I think intentional HBP's are baloney. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Lackey's was intentional. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Yes, looks like Marty Pattin...great memory jog.
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]

    He came to the Sox from Milwaukeee as part of the Tommy Harper deal. I remember him when I lived 2 blocks from County Stadium. Without that deal, I might still be a Brewer fan.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Jid, I'm catching up about three pages behind, but I like what you said about Red.  Agree 100% he's about three years away from what he will be.  Glad to see him get (4) hits tonight. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Harness and Moon, wanted to jump in on the Houk thing.  I vaguely remember reading about his effect on the team.  I remember he had a strong influence on a lot of guys.  I think two things were going on; first, I think he gave them a new way to think about approaching the game.  Next, I think part of that was playing to win as opposed to  playing so as not to lose.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Crit, the Sox weren't winning under Houk. They were rebuilding. I think maybe Houk made the process easier to endure by opening up some minds about game approach.

    Moon: If that trade made you a Sox fan, thank goodness for that trade.
    This board reaps the fruits!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Boom, I always love your reviews of the kids coming along.  Two comments.  It seems to me Theo places a special emphasis system wide on pitching.  Your analysis is we are a little weak in that area now with the guys we have coming.  To hook onto your other point, Theo grabbing other teams' castoffs, I love how proactive he is, and obviously we are going to hit or miss on those guys, rejoice when they hit and grumble when they don't.  Maybe they feel more comfortable taking a guy like Miller, young and talented but raw, hasn't found himself, with the idea that pitching might be an emphasis in the RS organization and confidence we can turn someone around.  I like Miller and Doubie, and I just think we have to be patiet as they are like Buch when he first came up--it's not going to be pretty all the time.  Back in the old days (50's and 60's) I think they used to keep all pitchers in the minors for about six years...Maybe with today's costs they can't afford to wait, but I know that was a magic number back in the day...I continue to like Bowden.  I don't know anything about pitching, but how long would it take to teach him to throw a sinker like Lowe?  Is that unreasonable?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Crit: I can tell you that the sinker has to do with a pitcher's motion/delivery. It affects the ball's plane. Every pitch a sinker-baller throws will have (downward) sinking action. Pitches can be learned but their effectiveness depends on physical traits/pitching delivery.

    For example, Paps has a deceptive delivery, but can't manufacture enough spin/torque to have an effective curve. In his role, it's not necessary because his FB is so effective. It wouldn't be if he altered his delivery to accommodate a curve.

    To throw a splitter, large hands (fingers) are required.
    Pedro threw a devastating change with a lot of English because he had long fingers.
    Wake said the fact he was once a middle infielder helped him in his becoming a knuckle-baller.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Harness, I almost addressed that question to you.  Looks like he's not going to make it with the fastball as his featured pitch.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I think they got Lackey, Matsuzaka, Lester, Beckett all locked up in long term deals and placed a little less emphasis on drafting pitching. They say they don't do that and I believe them but I think it might have been in the back of their minds a little.

    It's not horrible. It's just not as strong as some other slots are now IMO. We have some real stud infielders down in the low minors and with guys like Iglesias and Middlebrooks. I'm just not seeing the same level of talent in pitchers. We traded Kelly and that hurt a lot of course. Doubront and Ranaudo might still become #2 or 3 starters at some point. It's not hopeless.

    Lots of guys completely gave up on Bowden. He has always had the control and the work ethic. Taking the time to learn new pitches is what has been needed and maybe that continues to develop. He looks like he's in tremendous shape and maybe making him a reliever added a mph or 2. 

    His splits against RH are pretty darn good. I'm not ruling him out of a PO roster spot just yet. I know it's unlikely but it is possible. Some of our guys haven't really looked all that strong in the RH relief department lately.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Soxprospects has Bowden at #40, way below a bunch of guys who have done little to nothing so far. I think we might see a revision up at some point on that one.
     

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