A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    MOON, I think the 99 wins is going to be a little off. I say 94 -95 at the most.
    Posted by CHUBBIE99

    We are on pace for 96 wins. Our trend now makes it look like 93-94 might be more like it.

    I thought we'd win 100. 

    Injuries are something that happens and should be expected. It's not a valid excuse, but it has been a factor. After last year, I was hoping we'd have less than we have had. I'm not sure how we stack up against other teams in the injury category, and if our injuries were to more crucial players. Losing Buch, Dice-K and others from the staff certainly hurt. It's hard to say if the Drew & CC injuries were a negative or not. Pedey playing hurt early hurt. Youk's injury. Scutty & Lowrie. All in all, it doesn't seem half as bad as last year, but still significant.



    Sidenote: The Yanks are on pace for 99 wins. TB is on pace for 89 wins. (I projected 90-92 and a close WC race.) 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    2-10, and you thought the Sox would win 100? Wow
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I'm a little surprised the CERA folks aren't picking up more on the huge catcher splits Bard has.  A disastrous outing like last night's obviously has a big impact on the numbers, but as of now here are Bard's 2011 splits: With Varitek 30.1 IP ERA 0.89 SO 33 BB 3 With Salty 35.0 IP ERA 4.37 SO 35 BB 15 Look at the difference in the walks.  Bard's command seems to really suffer when it's not Tek behind the plate.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut



    And last year: Bard with -
    VMART: 44.3 IP 20 BB  2.64 ERA
    Tek:       18.6 IP   3 BB  .048 ERA

    If Tito/Theo are"joined at the hip" statistically, I do hope they have acknowledge this in stereo.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    2-10, and you thought the Sox would win 100? Wow
    Posted by dannycater

    I still think we might, but this is the first time I doubted we might not get that close. I never doubted for a minute this team would perform very well over 162 games. I do not get easily swayed by small samples: good or bad.


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : And last year: Bard with - VMART: 44.3 IP 20 BB   2.64 ERA Tek:    18.6 IP   3 BB  .048 ERA If Tito/Theo are"joined at the hip" statistically, I do hope they have acknowledge this in stereo.
    Posted by harness

    So, with 3 catchers on the roster, could we see a first in MLB? Bringing in a new catcher everytime a particular pitcher enters the game? 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    and Miller seems to throw better with Salty, but again the Two-Headed Managerial Monster don't seem to compute things. And Salty has issues catching Wake while Tek doesn't have the limitations of playing too much stopping him from catching Wake.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Maybe just primarily use Tek in the post season.
    Now, there's a thought!

    Would using Salty over Tek increase the offense to any large degree?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Salty can catch Lester and Miller, Tek can have the rest.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Lester w/Salty: 3.24 ERA
    Lester w/Tek: 1.75 ERA.

    Similar differential last year: Tek over VMART.
    Miller won't be starting any PO games.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    poor Salty, Tek even catches Wakefield better than him
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    danny, VTek's sample size with Wake is only 13 IP. VTek has had issues catching Wake the past few years.

    harness, as we pointed out last year, when CERA differentials are wide, virtually no amount of offense from 1 hitter can offset it. That being said, I will say that Salty hits RHPs way better than Vtek. 

    Salty .835 OPS to .721 by VTek    +.114

    (Vs LHPs: VTek .784/Salty .657)  -.127
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    harness, you blame the pitching coach for the ills, but I can turn right around and blame Tito for not using the right catchers with the right pitchers, something he seemed to do a better job at last year.
    Posted by dannycater


    And you'd be right.

    As for last year, Tito pulled the season's b-o-n-e-r by not playing Tek in Sept.,
    while VMART should have manned 1st when Youk went down.

    But the decision to bench Tek in the 2009 PO's was, IMO,  the single worst decision Tito ever made in a Boston uniform (assuming it was he who made that call).
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Well, last year VMart was clearly the better hitter of the two, so Tito drank the Kool-Aid. This year, it is not so obvious, so maybe he will start VTek in at least 1-2 games out of the first 5 (assuming we go 5).
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Youk's injury is concerning.  I think he is one of the engines that drives this team and his playoff savoir faire is important.  It seems like the injuries are mounting all at once.  I hope we don't start "playing passively" knowing that we are already in the PO's as I think we did last year.  I think we became passive last year before the PO's and didn't enter them playing the right kind of ball.  Regardless of who's starting, I want the pedal to the metal.  Just a quick comment on Reddick; a week ago everyone was ready to get rid of him because of a slump.  Since then I think he's had a four hit game and today he got a hit, scored a run.  He's doing ok but now Pedey's in a slump.  I don't think we're going to hear all kinds of stuff about getting rid of him.  My point is we have to let the young kids grow a little and a slump was probably in store for Reddick, and it looks like he's out of it, and I think if we threw him out there next year to play the entire year, he would give us more than Drew the last couple of years.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    RedSox fans tend to be a bit impulsive, Crit. Reddick is a good example. I pointed out that few other RedSox RF'ers have started their careers more productively since Tony Conigliaro. That includes Trot and Dewey.

    As for the injuries, let's just see what develops. The Sox need to win one of the
    3 vs. the Rays. And Lester goes Sunday.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    danny, VTek's sample size with Wake is only 13 IP. VTek has had issues catching Wake the past few years. harness, as we pointed out last year, when CERA differentials are wide, virtually no amount of offense from 1 hitter can offset it. That being said, I will say that Salty hits RHPs way better than Vtek.  Salty .835 OPS to .721 by VTek    +.114 (Vs LHPs: VTek .784/Salty .657)  -.127
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon, i realize it's a short sample size on Tek with Wake, but expounding on Max's point about unearned runs on another thread. Maybe Tek would do a better job with Tim now than when he used to catch him during a time when he was the No. 1 catcher and caught some 130 games. Tek has more rest, Tek also really showed something with Tim that has been always a missing link. We've never really talked about it much on Tim, and that he's got a good enough curve and could spot his 74 mph fastball and if he threw those pitches more often in relationship with his knuckleballs, the hitter would be guessing even more. I think it would make his knuckleball look that much more menacing. Tek did that in that relief outing for Tim, and it was refreshing. And the real reason why Tek stopped catching Tim wasn't just because of the ballhandling on Tek's part, it was done so Tek would have an automatic rest on the 5th day of the rotation, so he would never have to play 7 or 8 straight games behind the plate. Totally different situation, and my guess is Tek is the type of guy who now would relish catching Tim. Just my 2 cents.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Scutty's sure making a strong bid for his option to be picked up.

    Remember, it is a $6M team option/$3M player option with a $1.5M buyouy, so in a sense, we pay him $6M to stay or $1.5M to go, so it's actually a $4.5M differential to keep him. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I think Tek called more curves and "fastballs" because he doesn't like catching the dancer. Doesn't mean he's not capable of it. Trains of thought regarding pitch mixing with knuckle-ballers:

    1) When the pitch is really dancing in the zone, the idea is to stay with it. It's such a "feel' pitch, and that can be quite illusive.

    2) Throwing off the dancer when the pitch is ineffective can serve to regain the pitcher's balance for the pitch.

    3) With Salty, Wake throws the fastball when behind in the count and is trying to avoid walks. Very predictable.

    I think it's a fine line to know when and when not to stray too far from the pitch. Wake has the ability to throw his gas on the black. I've seen him throw 3 in a row that the hitter had a tough time dealing with - at 73 MPH.
    His curve isn't bad if he throws it more often.

    Salty really isn't very good catching him, physically or otherwise. For all my complaints about VMART last year, I admitted he did a really nice job with Wake.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Scutty's sure making a strong bid for his option to be picked up. Remember, it is a $6M team option/$3M player option with a $1.5M buyouy, so in a sense, we pay him $6M to stay or $1.5M to go, so it's actually a $4.5M differential to keep him. 
    Posted by moonslav59


    We are seeing the fruits of what happens when he isn't played into the ground, as he was last year.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    I think Tek called more curvesand "fastballs" because he doesn'tlike catching the dancer. Doesn't mean he's not capable of it. Trains of thought regarding pitch mixing with knuckle-ballers: 1) When the pitch is really dancing in the zone, the idea is to stay with it. It's such a "feel' pitch, and that can be quite illusive. 2) Throwing off the dancer when the pitch is ineffective can serve to regain the pitcher's balance for the pitch. 3) With Salty, Wake throws the fastball when behind in the count and is trying to avoid walks. Very predictable. I think it's a fine line to know when and when not to stray too far from the pitch. Wake has the ability to throw his gas on the black. I've seen him throw 3 in a row that the hitter had a tough time dealing with - at 73 MPH. His curve isn't bad if he throws it more often. Salty really isn't very good catching him, physically or otherwise. For all my complaints about VMART last year, I admitted he did a really nice job with Wake.
    Posted by harness

    And this is further evidence that catchers do make a big difference on what pitch types are called in a game. If there's that much variation between VTek and Salty with a guy like Wake...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : We are seeing the fruits of what happens when he isn't played into the ground, as he was last year.
    Posted by harness

    Excellent point harness...the position we held last year when softy said it made no difference.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : And this is further evidence that catchers do make a big difference on what pitch types are called in a game. If there's that much variation between VTek and Salty with a guy like Wake...
    Posted by moonslav59


    that's kind of what I was driving at with Tim. I think he knows that the best catcher he ever had was Mirabelli in terms of comfort zone (he made it look very easy, catching knuckler). VMART was right up there in terms of catching Tim well, so was Mike McFarlane if I recall. Cash didn't really do a "good" job with him. Salty has been suspect with him. I know, I know the Wake bashers will now say that it has nothing to do with the catcher, and that's exactly why I would beg Tito to let Tek catch him at Toronto. What if he throws a gem? If he were to throw anything like he did v. Texas in that relief outing, we'd be getting the best of Wakefield.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    So far Salty has virtually been Tim's personal catcher, I don't see any reason to continue that at this point. On the same token, I see no reason why Tek catches Miller, it doesn't work those 2, but Salty seems to be Miller's comfort zone (I have no idea why, but he does). I would throw Miller with Salty next outing. If he throws a great game, you have your answer.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    You can mix and match at this point. Stop the predictability of almost everything you do, Mr. Francona and Mr. Theo. It's time to change it up. Really, it's ok to move the catchers around with the different SPs.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    So far Salty has virtually been Tim's personal catcher, I don't see any reason to continue that at this point. On the same token, I see no reason why Tek catches Miller, it doesn't work those 2, but Salty seems to be Miller's comfort zone (I have no idea why, but he does). I would throw Miller with Salty next outing. If he throws a great game, you have your answer.
    Posted by dannycater



    I don't think any one game will be conclusive either way. This concept should never be measured this way.

    I do think Tito is aware of Tek/Miller and I am willing to bet we see Salty catching Miller's next outing. Between starts, Miller might find a flaw in his delivery.
    So, saying it's one catcher or another based on his next outing isn't credible.

    In fact, it's tough to find many credible analogies between the two catcher's this year. On Salty's behalf, when Tek initially caught Wake early on in his career, he had real issues with passed balls.
     
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