A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : You said the RedSox have a small chance (of playing in WS). Depending on UR definition of small , each team entering the PO's has the same statistical chance of getting to the series. Whether they do or not depends on many factors. If the pitching gets healthy Boston's chances increase. Judging from personal, I'd say the Phillies have the best chance in the N.L. to reach the WS. Boston has a 25% chance right off the bat. If they play the Tigers (something you obviously can't grasp, as winning the division may forgo that opportunity), their chances are better because they match up well with the Tigers. Beating them favors Boston if they get access to Beckett/Lester/Bedard healthy and in good enough form. I noticed on UR list, you put Boson ahead of the Detroit . WHY ? The team pulled Josh/Bedard out of the rotation to get them as physically ready as possible. Their return might now be hastened. This could affect their future availability. The team is walking a fine line in that regard. If Boston goes into the first round with pitching intact and they face the Tigers , they could be seen as a 50% choice to reach the WS. Hardly a small chance. Try looking beyond the present and weighing it out with a little faith.
    Posted by harness

    Verlander won't be able to carry the team on his back. I think they are the weakest team going to the play-offs other than the Diamondbacks.  Tigers also just lost Brennan Boesh, and cannot afford a slugging match against Boston or New York.

    I compare the Tigers to the pre-2004 Red Sox play-off teams since 1990.... Pedro Martinez, and Clemens before him just are not enough for a team to go all the way unless they have pitcher B. Their #2 pitcher Fister is actually quite decent but he is not Bruce Hurst, or Schilling, or even a Clay Bucholz. 

    I would not be afraid to face the Tigers, you only have to get to Verlander once and we have an amazing offense on any given day.  Beat Verlander once and its over for the Tigers.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    moon I probably did rate them to high, and here I thought i might get flack for throwing Milawaukee up there.

    Texas in one moment runs over Boston and in the next they are the ones getting squashed. 

    Doesn't it really boil down to Beckett and Bedard and how Tito manages the staff.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    moon, I sure wish you had been wrong about Tampa. They've got a strong, young pitching staff.

    The Sox are really missing Beckett, Bedard, and Buchholz now. Hell, even Dice-K may have been able to help out! Key injuries can really hurt any team.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Just heard a caller saying they should have brought Davey Lopes (RI native) in as a first base coach... good idea, though he is 66.

    Perhaps he could clean up the terrible baserunning and the overall fundamentals.

    As much as I love base stealing our best guys have been caught a lot, and other players are just making mistakes all too often.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from greenapplesplatters. Show greenapplesplatters's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Oh yeah. This doesn't bother you. Which is why you posted it at 2:01 AM . I'm not confusing you with anybody beyond the wuss who left here after you showed your were exposed in 2007. You do nothing but quit and denounce a very successful management. You don't have the guts to support a team to which you claim to be a fan . You show up, on 9/11 ironically, after a pivotal loss - to boast. You can't handle UR own yellow spine , so you come here to attract more of the same. Parasites feed off fear.
    Posted by harness


    A perfect example of 'head in the sand' thinking. Posts like this really call into question whether or not a poster truly undertsands the game he/she is watching.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BeaconHill19. Show BeaconHill19's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    What shall i do to get to know her?

    posted at 3/11/2006 11:26 AM EST
    www.boston.com/community/persona.html?UID=74349b40e9dd00da7d5770fea1c6f163&plckUserId=74349b40e9dd00da7d5770fea1c6f163">
    Posts: 99
    First: 2/17/2006
    Last: 9/12/2011

    I grew up Chabahar. South Iran near Pakistan. Good city and university. Have come to US for

    continued studies. Enjoy America very much. Many womens no traditional dress. Know what I am

    mean? Ha ha

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    When Aviles got picked off 1st the other day did anyone else notice his hesitation on getting back to the base. The day before, he got thrown out at 2nd to end the game if I remember correctly. I don't think he is our designated base runner.  

    A better base runner might have helped us win one of those games, which might make all the difference in the world this year. It's going to be a cat fight to the end this year. that's my projection at this point. Tampa's pitching is peaking and ours is tanking. It's going to be a struggle.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Verlander won't be able to carry the team on his back. I think they are the weakest team going to the play-offs other than the Diamondbacks.  Tigers also just lost Brennan Boesh, and get afford a slugging match against Boston or New York. I compare the Tigers to the pre-2004 Red Sox play-off teams since 1990.... Pedro Martinez, and Clemens before him just are not enough for a team to go all the way unless they have pitcher B. Their #2 pitcher Fister is actually quite decent but he is not Bruce Hurst, or Schilling, or even a Clay Bucholz.  I would not be afraid to face the Tigers, you only have to get to Verlander once and we have an amazing offense on the right day.  Beat Verlander once and its over for the Tigers.
    Posted by BurritoT


    Solid post, burr. The Tigers do seem like a one-pitcher wonder. Their #2 and 3 guys are not horrible, but can be touched up. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    moon, I sure wish you had been wrong about Tampa. They've got a strong, young pitching staff. The Sox are really missing Beckett, Bedard, and Buchholz now. Hell, even Dice-K may have been able to help out! Key injuries can really hurt any team.
    Posted by devildavid


    It looks like Tb will reach the goal I set (90-92 wins). Where I went wrong was that I thought the Yanks 9without serious in season moves, would win only 92-94 games, hence the term "not go away", since i envisioned TB being in the race to the very last days of the season. I hope the Sox win 94 or more, but at this pace, who knows.

    The fact remains: the players TB lost, some of whom had good seasons last year, are almost all doing much worse this year. Secondly, the players who replaced the major players lost are doing as good if not better than the players they lost did last year:

    Hellickson/Cobb /> Garza
    Kotchman /> C. Pena
    Joyce/Fuld <= Crawford
    Zobrist (2B)/Rodriguez (SS) = Bartlett (SS)/Rodriguez (2B)
    Farnsworth < Soriano (but close)


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    n Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In today's game, I found it interesting that nobody on the board (n/i game thread) mentioned how Tito didn't run for Papi once he got on base. With the bases juiced and one out, how could  Tito let Papi run from 3rd base???Had that collision ended up in a dislocated shoulder, the entire season would have be at risk. Talk about a brain lapse. Papi had no possible function once he got on base. Was he gonna stay in the game and play the field? Really dumb. (harness from Part II) harness, Papi PH for the pitcher in the 7th inning. If you pinch run for him, you take another player out of the game. We may have needed another player to PH for a pitcher later in the game. Perhaps we could have PR a pitcher for Papi.
    Posted by moonslav59
    I noticed on Friday night someone (not harness) got on Tito for not making a double switch when he made his first pitching change to put the pitcher in the 5 spot. This of course was in the face that we had Ortiz able to come up with the runners on in the pitcher's slot in the 8th.

    Overall, Tito knows what he is doing IMO with the NL rules and the limitations of a 25 man roster with 12 pitchers. the biggest problem with the NL rules is Ortiz sitting and just how much it exposes the lack of production from OFers not named Ellsbury. 

      I don't remember writing that post. Did you cut and paste wrong or am i going senile? I feel like Promise's sign off line.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Oh yeah. This doesn't bother you. Which is why you posted it at 2:01 AM . I'm not confusing you with anybody beyond the wuss who left here after you showed your were exposed in 2007. You do nothing but quit and denounce a very successful management. You don't have the guts to support a team to which you claim to be a fan . You show up, on 9/11 ironically, after a pivotal loss - to boast. You can't handle UR own yellow spine , so you come here to attract more of the same. Parasites feed off fear.
    Posted by harness


    Here's the deal Harness: you are a dope who is incapable of carrying on an intelligent conversation. The ONLY thing you are capable of doing is insulting people on a personal level. You and BeaconHill are two peas in a pod. You are no longer worth my time. See ya.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The IGGY button won't work with me. You will always have to know how you are being showed up for the WUSS you are. You are a self-centered paranoid.

    You could write a book on being insulting - and self-denial.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Please, Birds, please...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Verlander won't be able to carry the team on his back. I think they are the weakest team going to the play-offs other than the Diamondbacks.  Tigers also just lost Brennan Boesh, and get afford a slugging match against Boston or New York. I compare the Tigers to the pre-2004 Red Sox play-off teams since 1990.... Pedro Martinez, and Clemens before him just are not enough for a team to go all the way unless they have pitcher B. Their #2 pitcher Fister is actually quite decent but he is not Bruce Hurst, or Schilling, or even a Clay Bucholz.  I would not be afraid to face the Tigers, you only have to get to Verlander once and we have an amazing offense on the right day.  Beat Verlander once and its over for the Tigers.
    Posted by BurritoT


    Tell me this: If it came down to winning the division and facing TX - as opposed to getting the WC and matching up against the Tigers, which would you choose?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'd want the home field vs anyone.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not so sure home field with this current team is more advantageous than level of competition faced. Boston matches up well with the Tigers...regardless of venue. And this is one of the better road teams we've seen in Boston in a decade.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    There's two parts to home and away.

    Yes, the Sox are just barely better at home than away, but Texas is about a .500 team on the road. Texas has a .613% at home.

    I'd rather face Texas with home field than Det away, although Detroit is .608H and .542A, so maybe it all balances out and we'd be beter facing the Tigers. 

    Without Beckett we have very little chance. With Beckett and without Bedard it will be much harder, but I like our chances in the first round vs either of these guys. (Assuming we make it.) 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    One thing to consider: TX isn't the launching pad in Oct. that it is in the summer, so they may not exercise the same degree of home advantage. But they are a deeper ballclub than the Tigers IMO.

    In 2007, I believe Boston lucked out in that the Tigers just missed the PO's (We didn't match up well with them that year) and NY got knocked off (same thing: poor potential match-up). Then the Rockies had that long layoff.

    In 2004, Boston beat the best because they were the best.

    This 2011 team has some holes.
    I like our chances against Detroit. And I'd prefer playing NY over TX.
    The Rangers can be scary, and they are the defending A.L. Champs...who now have Beltre, and WS experience under their belt.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    One thing to consider: TX isn't the launching pad in Oct. that it is in the summer, so they may not exercise the same degree of home advantage. But they are a deeper ballclub than the Tigers IMO. In 2007, I believe Boston lucked out in that the Tigers just missed the PO's (We didn't match up well with them that year) and NY got knocked off (smae thing: poor potential match-up). Then the Rockies had that long layoff. In 2004, Boston beat the best because they were the best. This 2011 team has some holes. I like our chances against Detroit. And I'd prefer playing NY over TX. The Rangers can be scary, and they are the defending A.L. Champs...who now have Beltre, and WS experience under their belt.
    Posted by harness

    The 2004 Red Sox will always be remembered as a remarkable team, but I would note that the Sox failed to win their division that year. The 2004 Sox had a good team that got hot at the right time (despite a three-game postseason losing streak).
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Texas does not have the same starting pitching as 2010, namely, no Lee:
    Wilson   15-8  3.35  1.245  (0-0  0.00 div series/0-1 6.00 ALCS)
    Lee          4-6   3.98  1.058  (2-0  1.13 div series/1-0 0.00 CS)
    Lewis    12-13  3.72  1.189 (0-0  0.00 div series/2-0 1.98 CS)
    Hunter  13-4   3.73  1.242  (0-1  4.50 div series/0-0 8.10 CS)
    Feldman 7-11 5.48  1.599


    2011:
    Wilson  16-6   3.01  1.172
    Lewis    12-10 4.29  1.229
    Holland 13-5   4.12  1.385
    Harrison 11-9 3.50  1.296
    Ogando  12-8  3.71  1.169
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : The 2004 Red Sox will always be remembered as a remarkable team, but I would note that the Sox failed to win their division that year. The 2004 Sox had a good team that got hot at the right time (despite a three-game postseason losing streak).
    Posted by hill55



    I think it's because they were sleep-walking half the season after 2003's devastating loss. The Nomar disturbance didn't help.

    They got their act together in the second half, and after the Nomar shocker, they were near unbeatable.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    Texas does not have the same starting pitching as 2010, namely, no Lee: Wilson   15-8  3.35  1.245  (0-0  0.00 div series/0-1 6.00 ALCS) Lee          4-6   3.98  1.058   (2-0  1.13 div series/1-0 0.00 CS) Lewis    12-13  3.72  1.189 (0-0  0.00 div series/2-0 1.98 CS) Hunter  13-4   3.73  1.242  (0-1  4.50 div series/0-0 8.10 CS) Feldman 7-11 5.48  1.599 2011: Wilson  16-6   3.01  1.172 Lewis    12-10 4.29  1.229 Holland 13-5   4.12  1.385 Harrison 11-9 3.50  1.296 Ogando  12-8  3.71  1.169
    Posted by moonslav59


    This year, their pitching on the road is among the best in baseball.
    Launching pad can skew the overall numbers.

    They are dangerous.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    It wasn't a launching pad last year?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Yes it was, but every year is different.

    2011: TX pitching staff
    In TX:   4.45 ERA  1.319 WHIP     .745 OPP OPS
    Away: 3.29 ERA  1.201 WHIP  .667 OPS 

    2010:
    In TX: 3.65 ERA    1.294 WHIP  .704 OPS
    AWAY: 4.24 ERA  1.326 WHIP  .714 OPS
     
    That's quite a reversal. The staff is maturing and able to excel on the road now. They are a better road team this year despite hitting poorly away from home.

    Yes they lost Lee. But Wilson is having a strong year.
    And he's tough on Boston. Last two years: 1.09 ERA (34.3 IP).

    Wilson vs. NY & BS
    in 2011: 1.77 ERA  1.182 WHIP
    In 2010: 2.81 ERA  1.246 WHIP

    Lewis is beatable, but overall, I think TX has a deeper staff than the Tigers considering everything. And pitchers have little margin for error against that TX line-up.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Tell me this: If it came down to winning the division and facing TX - as opposed to getting the WC and matching up against the Tigers, which would you choose?
    Posted by harness


    I take the division every time. All those championship years for the Yankees involved them taking the division. Winners take the division, than the ALCS, concluding with the WSC. 

    Texas beat us pretty good earlier and then we turned around and "schooled" them shortly afterward. 
     
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