A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I don't like having to hope Baltimore wins.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Don't worry. The condition is very temporary. I ought a know.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    LOL. Maybe you were right all along!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Yeah. The O's had a couple of good weeks to start the year.
    And maybe one to finish it.
    Someone should have reminded them that the rest of the season counts too.

    If the Sox go 7-8 over the remaining 15, the Rays have to go 12-3 to beat them.
    If Sox play over .500, they'll bag at least 94 wins.

    If Sox/Rays end up in an unlikely tie, I assume it's a one-game playoff.
    Ties in the NL before the WC involved a 2 out of three scenario, if I remember correctly.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The Sox have an .585 winning% (on pace for about 95 wins)

    Here are the records with each starter:

    Miller         9-3   (.750)
    Beckett   19-8   (.704)
    Buch          9-5   (.643)
       (Team  .585)
    Lester     16-12 (.571)
    Wake      12-9    (.571)
    Dice-K       4-3    (.571)
    Beddard    3-3   (.500)
    Lackey   12-13  (.480)
    Weiland    1-2    (.333)
    Aceves     1-3    (.250)

    I don't read too much into a pitcher's wins or team wins when a pitcher pitches, so many variables play a part, but it is interesting to view and wins are wins.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    After avoiding BDC for a few days for all but a few posts because of the excessive toxicity thought I'd share a few thoughts.

    Glad to see Wakefield get the #200 monkey off of his back and see how that monkey off of his back might influence his future starts. But if the season ended today I have to say his 2010-11 splits at his age do mute his first half of 2009 at this point. I know his WHIP is low for the ERA etc, etc but all and all not a very good season. And tonight was no exception the offense just coming back from blown leads until Wake strung a couple of good frames together.

    Also if the season ended today of the position players IMO there is little doubt the MVP of the Boston Red Sox is the CFer. The most consistent player this year. I heard an out of town talking head talking about Ellsbury and he said that Ells power isn't that much of a surprise to him and his comparison of Ells to a guy he played struck me as making a lot of sense that Ells power would emerge in his late 20's. That comp was Steve Finley.

    Hopefully combined with a Tampa loss the board will climb back off of the ledge a little. But the situation is tough for the Red Sox. While various posters want to blame the GM, the manager, the medical staff, the pitching coach and the goat of the night, the situation they are demonstrates the impact that injury and the randomness of it can have on any team in any sport, let alone the marathon that is an MLB season. Still once you get into the post season any team can get hot enough win 11 so hope lives on. But the starting pitching needs to get healthy because they aren't gong far with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Wake, Miller and Weiland.

     
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Beckett will start Thur or Friday...
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]After avoiding BDC for a few days for all but a few posts because of the excessive toxicity thought I'd share a few thoughts. Glad to see Wakefield get the #200 monkey off of his back and see how that monkey off of his back might influence his future starts. But if the season ended today I have to say his 2010-11 splits at his age do mute his first half of 2009 at this point. I know his WHIP is low for the ERA etc, etc but all and all not a very good season. And tonight was no exception the offense just coming back from blown leads until Wake strung a couple of good frames together. Also if the season ended today of the position players IMO there is little doubt the MVP of the Boston Red Sox is the CFer. The most consistent player this year. I heard an out of town talking head talking about Ellsbury and he said that Ells power isn't that much of a surprise to him and his comparison of Ells to a guy he played struck me as making a lot of sense that Ells power would emerge in his late 20's. That comp was Steve Finley. Hopefully combined with a Tampa loss the board will climb back off of the ledge a little. But the situation is tough for the Red Sox. While various posters want to blame the GM, the manager, the medical staff, the pitching coachand the goat of the night, the situation they are demonstrates the impact that injury and the randomness of it can have on any team in any sport, let alone the marathon that is an MLB season. Still once you get into the post season any team can get hot enough win 11 so hope lives on. But the starting pitching needs to get healthy because they aren't gong far with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Wake, Miller and Weiland.  
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]


    Rotational health involves more than physical well-being.
    It involves consistency of delivery to maximize output (velocity/depth of break).
    It involves pitch efficiency.
    It involves video study to detect hitter weakness beyond scouting reports.

    Poor/erratic mechanics have lead to reduced velocity with several key starters. And it has affected form and health.

    Responsibility to see these areas are met and followed belongs to the pitching coach. Injuries are gonna happen. His job is to do everything possible to prevent them. He has not done his job.
    This is and has been the most glaring team weakness. And it'll likely continue.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    harness, old friend, I totally agree.

    But I would add one more - er - challenge that the starter must face.

    No, make it two.

    One, his head must be in the game. Distractions cannot take hold.

    Two, he must be willing to admit that something - distractions, mechanics, attitude - is wrong and take steps to correct it.

    My impression is that Mr. Lackey seems to be challenged by both of these conditions.  Unless, of course, there is some issue that I am unaware of.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]harness, old friend, I totally agree. But I would add one more - er - challenge that the starter must face. No, make it two. One, his head must be in the game. Distractions cannot take hold. Two, he must be willing to admit that something - distractions, mechanics, attitude - is wrong and take steps to correct it. My impression is that Mr. Lackey seems to be challenged by both of these conditions.  Unless, of course, there is some issue that I am unaware of.
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]

    On TWO, this again is an area where the pitching coach becomes a prominent sounding board. The pitchers said last year that Farrell was an excellent communicator. Haven't read any such thing about Young.

    On Lackey, only he knows if/how much of an issue his elbow is at this point...as well as the fact his wife has been fighting a deadly disease.
    He's made his starts after the cortisone shots. If he wins two more games,
    despite the DL stay and the circumstances under which he's pitching, he'll have 14 wins, which is his seasonal average.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]harness, old friend, I totally agree. But I would add one more - er - challenge that the starter must face. No, make it two. One, his head must be in the game. Distractions cannot take hold. Two, he must be willing to admit that something - distractions, mechanics, attitude - is wrong and take steps to correct it. My impression is that Mr. Lackey seems to be challenged by both of these conditions.  Unless, of course, there is some issue that I am unaware of.
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE] IMO his body was in decline when the RS signed him and Epstein rationalized he had himself covered with a discounted team option on the back end of this deal. He hasn't missed a lot of bats since he got here, his velocity has been in decline and he already hasd taken one DL trip this year and cortsone for those known elbow issues. Fly ball pitcher that pitch to contact are going to get hurt outside of parks with a lot of foul ground, big power alleys and poor carry. 

    As for the theory that Curt Young somehow is reposnsible for everything from elbow's to ankles to a knee and stress fractures in the back because John Farrell left with the secret sauce to a "shoulder strength" program there is no response on my part at this point.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : IMO his body was in decline when the RS signed him and Epstein rationalized he had himself covered with a discounted team option on the back end of this deal. He hasn't missed a lot of bats since he got here, his velocity has been in decline and he already hasd taken one DL trip this year and cortsone for those known elbow issues. Fly ball pitcher that pitch to contact are going to get hurt outside of parks with a lot of foul ground, big power alleys and poor carry.  As for the theory that Curt Young somehow is reposnsible for everything from elbow's to ankles to a knee and stress fractures in the back because John Farrell left with the secret sauce to a "shoulder strength" program there is no response on my part at this point.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    You took Dice's side over Farrell's in the great press wars, and now fail to acknowledge the total responsibilities and the obvious inconsistencies that earmark a poor pitching coach.

    And while many pitchers have suffered lost velocity this year, Lackey, ironically, has the same 93 MPH FB he had in CA. His pitch regression since the 2nd half of 2008 stems from diminished depth of break from his secondary pitches.

    His QS's trended downward dramatically in mid-2008.
    I do agree with you that his style of pitching is not conducive to the confines of Fenway.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Well how do we look now? Wake got the win but still gave up 5 runs... is there a starter left on the team capable of giving up less than 5 runs?  


    Hopefully we take two from Toronto, and the Rays lose 2 to Baltimore. This weekend should be one of the most crucial late season series in years.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    [QUOTE]Well how do we look now? Wake got the win but still gave up 5 runs... is there a starter left on the team capable of giving up less than 5 runs?   Hopefully we take two from Toronto, and the Rays lose 2 to Baltimore. This weekend should be one of the most crucial late season series in years.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]


    How does Toronto look now? They gave up 18 and are a .500 team in the toughest division on earth.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    As for the theory that Curt Young somehow is reposnsible for everything from elbow's to ankles to a knee and stress fractures in the back because John Farrell left with the secret sauce to a "shoulder strength" program there is no response on my part at this point.

    You are responding to an idle minded grapefruit.

    O's were a joke and were not for real.

    Indians were not for real.

    Wakefield was terrible, as usual, and the team and pen won the game.

    Weiland, despite giving up only 6 runs in his last 12 innings, just 3 starts, is being bumped in favor of Wakefield.

    The ultimate joke will be Wakefield on the playoff roster. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The ultimate joke is a perpetually banned  poster who can't stay on the board long enough to fulfill his hate agenda.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I'm not a defeatist and I don't like to be negative. I try to just look at things objectively. Can I see TB going 12-3? With their starting rotation and recent performances....yes. It is possible. It's unlikely but it's possible.

    Can I see the Redsox playing under .500 ball through the remainder of this year? Yes, I can. It's certainly possible. Their starters are not pitching well. They have people hurt. Their recent performances have been really bad. It could happen.

    If I was to project I would say the Sox are 80% likely to make the playoffs but I don't like that 20 % popping up at all when just a week ago it was more like 3%. I know lots of people would say it's not those percentages but when our pitching staff is this bad, anything could happen. I'm hoping we can snaggle some Wakefield type wins and have Lester, Bedard and Beckett perform as expected. And thank God Ellsbury, Pedroia and others keep cranking that baseball out of the park!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I really don't know why folks can't grasp the obvious.
    1) Pitching is the over-riding factor. A team lives and dies with their pitching. The Rays are still around because of this. The Sox slump directly coincided with a pitching staff riddled with nagging injuries.

    2) The team will hit far better and far more consistently at Fenway. And so will the opposition. That's why this differential exists:
    Home: 4.37 ERA  1.373 WHIP  .740 OPP OPS
    Road:  3.78 ERA  1.217 WHIP  .677 OPP OPS.

    As for mathematical percentages, it's reflective of data and circumstance.
    A 4 game lead can fizzle in no time if the pitching craps out. And injury to key personal/inconsistent form will likely determine the outcome.

    Hitting is only successful about a third as often as pitching has to be. And it's just too much to ask hitters to compensate for pitching issues over time. That's why this slump began.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Other than scoring 16 runs what about the starting pitching gave you hope tonight? 
     
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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Other than scoring 16 runs what about the starting pitching gave you hope tonight? 
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Hope for me is more about how the team reacted to adversity in a high-pressure game. You could tell they were not going to be held down.
    As for the starting pitching, I think Wake shutting them down in the 5th/6th was big, as it allowed Tito to get to Aceves and by-pass a lesser bridge.
    Toronto can hit some.

    Greatest hope will come from seeing Bedard/Beckett return and with credible form.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Other than scoring 16 runs what about the starting pitching gave you hope tonight?                      

    Never ask a grapefruit a non-leading question. Or else you will get Wakefield and the word coming up big. The only thing big is Wastefield's waistline.

    And the only hate is someone using hate to try and censor criticism and dissent. Wakefield stinks as a pitcher. That is not hate, it's simply not PC criticism.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Amazing how one with his waistline can remain the only healthy starting pitcher going into the season...and reach heights you'll never reach.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I wonder who is going to come up with a way to get Mrs. Ramirez to talk. I doubt if a book deal is in the works but probably a famous former Redsox player is going to have to shell out some hush money ala Tiger Woods. She knows a lot and may well want to talk about it. Who knows, maybe they get back together but it could get even more ugly before it's through and there is a lot of cash on the table.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I wonder who is going to come up with a way to get Mrs. Ramirez to talk. I doubt if a book deal is in the works but probably a famous former Redsox player is going to have to shell out some hush money ala Tiger Woods. She knows a lot and may well want to talk about it. Who knows, maybe they get back together but it could get even more ugly before it's through and there is a lot of cash on the table.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't put it past Manny to hire Robert Blake's accomplice.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The one thing that sticks out in my mind is Manny saying he never wanted to be poor again ( from some long ago interview after signing with the Sox ). I just kinda shake my head whenever his name pops up the last fear years. He seems to be very careless. Very destructive to everyone around him and in the end himself ( and eventually his bank account ). It's too bad. I hope he takes some of his millions and looks into seeing a Psychologist. He needs to relax. Join a friendly neighborhood softball league er something.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Hope for me is more about how the team reacted to adversity in a high-pressure game. You could tell they were not going to be held down. As for the starting pitching, I think Wake shutting them down in the 5th/6th was big, as it allowed Tito to get to Aceves and by-pass a lesser bridge. Toronto can hit some. Greatest hope will come from seeing Bedard/Beckett return and with credible form.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Sometimes the batters "pick up" the pitchers, and sometimes it's the other way around. Let's hope the bats stay hot while the staff gets its act together in time for the playoffs.
     
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