A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Well if you have won 12 in a row and the next day you start the play-offs with the best pitcher in basball I would think your chances of winning are greater... even if a lot of those 12 wins were against weak teams. 

    There's a lot to be aware of if the Sox make it to the play-offs and have just played the last month at .300 ball.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Tigers have a better record than Boston because they are beating on weaker teams from their own division. Nobody in the Central is even at .500 beyond Detroit. Tigers vs: East:     18 - 14 Central: 46 - 21 West:    16 - 16 Boston: East:     34 - 24 Central: 21 - 16 West:    21 - 14 
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    Another way to look at it: The Red Sox are 34-24 (.586) against AL East teams and the Tigers are 17-9 (.654) against the same four AL East clubs.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    wow! really?  that is a tremndous stat. So now we have Detroit riding a their biggest win streak since 1968, they have the best pitcher in ball, and our team is in the process of having its worse month of the season.

    yikes.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]wow! really?  that is a tremndous stat. So now we have Detroit riding a their biggest win streak since 1968, they have the best pitcher in ball, and our team is in the process of having its worse month of the season. yikes.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]This thought is not to mitigate the RS roster issues but the faced an insanely hot Rockies team in 2007 the PS and crushed them. So how hot the Tigers are right now to me is ink in the water. They are danerous because when the are at home their park mitigates HR power, the middle of the batting order is awesome, they have the best starter in the game this year etc.

    The RS issues are Lester has had command issues much of his starts this year, Lackey has been awful mostly ordinary in between, Bedard physically a question mark, and Beckett the one true ace this season is going to be back from an ankle injury hence a question mark. With Bard likely pitching hurt the bullpen has a great closer and a middle reliever surrounded by question marks.

    To me this isn't like April where the team was just in a bad streak, you can look at the roster and the health of those on it and see why the record lately is what it is.  Bard alone is killer. The RS are 2-6 in their last 8 and Bard personally owns 3 of those loses. That swing is 5-3 v. 2-6 just in case anybody thinks an top quality set-up guy doesn't matter. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Well if you have won 12 in a row and the next day you start the play-offs with the best pitcher in basball I would think your chances of winning are greater... even if a lot of those 12 wins were against weak teams.  There's a lot to be aware of if the Sox make it to the play-offs and have just played the last month at .300 ball.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    End-of-year momentum doesn't always carry over, either way. 

    The 2000 champs ended the year losing 15 of 18.
    The 2006 champs ended the year losing 10 of 14.


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    There's still time for us to end the year on a hot streak.

    Most players, managers, and execs would prefer their team be hot, not cold, going into the playoffs.

    katz, I disagree on Bard "owning" 3 losses. He didn't do his job in those three losses, but neither did others. The team lost those 3. Bard helped us lose for sure. There does seem like soemthing is not right with his health, but I hate blaming every bad stretch on injury.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Katz, I love your posts, especially the last one, as I see them as being ballanced and informative.  But I would disagree on your "inferior" reference to the Giants.  I know many didn't think they belonged there last year, and my own recent reference to them as terrible to watch right now might support that.  But...I can't ever see them as inferiour with a starting pitching staff like that. You've got some great young pitching there.  The one thing I don't know is how that pitching would do in the American League East.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Katz, I really agree with your Rockies reference.  How about how we tore apart the Cards?  Sometimes the NL teams just don't seem to show up.  I am a little afraid of Philly's pitching, but I agree with Moon that we've got to find a way to get a little streak going.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Katz, I love your posts, especially the last one, as I see them as being ballanced and informative.  But I would disagree on your "inferior" reference to the Giants.  I know many didn't think they belonged there last year, and my own recent reference to them as terrible to watch right now might support that.  But...I can't ever see them as inferiour with a starting pitching staff like that. You've got some great young pitching there.  The one thing I don't know is how that pitching would do in the American League East.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]If the 2010 SF Giants and 2010 Phillies played 10 best of 7 series the Phillies win 8 or 9 of them IMO and that was sort of my point. They weren't a bad team like say the 2006 WS champ Cards but they did see a team pretty much their equal of in pitching, stronger defense and a way better offense in Philly.  In that regard the best team did not emerge from the NL that year but that's the beauty of playoffs and the WS.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Katz, I really agree with your Rockies reference.  How about how we tore apart the Cards?  Sometimes the NL teams just don't seem to show up.  I am a little afraid of Philly's pitching, but I agree with Moon that we've got to find a way to get a little streak going.
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    We can win by backing into the playoffs, but I think being hot beforehand is preferable.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I guess our hot streak will have to start tomorrow.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    great game, 5+ runs again. .. I brought this up in ealry August and was called a basher... BurritoT had the forsesight even when we were winning to see our staff was screwed.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Oh no! The dreaded 3rd person.


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Well, I'm not in Fenway but I feel damp, wet, waterlogged, windblown, battered, and underwater.  I guess if I had to chose one thing to be really worried about, right now it would be Youk.  He doesn't look right and Jerry Remy says it's obvious he's playing hurt.  Lowrie--is out.  So not only are one and two out, who do you put in to fill the void?  Well, the call ups will be interesting. 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : That's fair enough... I wasn't attacking you, just kind of saying give the guy a little more time, especially since he will probably be here next year. Although you obviously saw something you didn't like early... so you probably have a more reliable perspective than me. I hoe you didn't take my post as an attack...I most surely did not mean it as one.
    Posted by athens7676[/QUOTE]


    Not at all. You brought up a good point.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I agree with your point. If Detroit was in the AL east, they would be behind Boston right now. However, an intersting and opposing point can be made: the Sox are 16-15 vs the AL Central other than Detroit. Had we beaten up on them at the same rate as Detroit did, we'd be ahead of them now. MN    5-2 KC    5-3 Cle   4-6 CWS 2-4 (Det 5-1) (Sidenote: I never noticed the wide disparity in games played vs. other AL teams from the same division. 10 vs Cleveland, but only 6 vs CWS? Hmmmmm...)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Games in same division will equal out by year's end.
    I think the reason why Boston at times has a lax record against other weaker divisions is that we don't see them very often. The more a team is played, the easier it is to expose weaknesses, especially with the pitching.

    That's why I was hoping Tito would opt for an alternative to Weiland facing the Rays again so quickly. Never thought coming into this season that the team would be in a situation where no alternative to a AAA pitcher could be found in the biggest series of the year.

    Sad.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Sox starters month by month by ERA:
              under 3    /          3-5       /     5+
    Apr   Lest  Beck  /     Dice        /    Buch  Lack
    May  Beck Buch / Wake Acev/  Lest Dice Lack
    June      Lest / Beck Mill Beck Buch/  Wake Lack
    July  Lest Beck     /      0        / Lack  Wake  Mill  Weil
    Aug  Mill Lest  / Bedd Beck  /  Wake  Lack
    Sep  Beck Lest/      Bedd       / Wake  Weil  Lack  Mill
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Another way to look at it: The Red Sox are 34-24 (.586) against AL East teams and the Tigers are 17-9 (.654) against the same four AL East clubs.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    And another way to look at it is the Tigers are 1-5 against Boston. If the season concluded tonight, that's the pertinent data because that's the match-up.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Games in same division will equal out by year's end. I think the reason why Boston at times has a lax record against other weaker divisions is that we don't see them very often. The more a team is played, the easier it is to expose weaknesses, especially with the pitching. That's why I was hoping Tito would opt for an alternative to Weiland facing the Rays again so quickly. Never thought coming into this season that the team would be in a situation where no alternative to a AAA pitcher could be found in the biggest series of the year. Sad.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    We don't play the CWS again. We ended up with 6 vs them and 10 vs Cleve. Doesn't seem right or fair.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : If the 2010 SF Giants and 2010 Phillies played 10 best of 7 series the Phillies win 8 or 9 of them IMO and that was sort of my point. They weren't a bad team like say the 2006 WS champ Cards but they did see a team pretty much their equal of in pitching, stronger defense and a way better offense in Philly.  In that regard the best team did not emerge from the NL that year but that's the beauty of playoffs and the WS.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    The Cards didn't win that Series, Detroit lost it with a mind numbing # of bad throws from their pitchers fielding bunts and dribblers; this eventually set the tone in that Series; those errors had a life of their own.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Sox starters month by month by ERA:           under 3    /          3-5       /     5+ Apr   Lest  Beck  /     Dice        /    Buch  Lack May  Beck Buch / Wake Acev/  Lest Dice Lack June      Lest / Beck Mill Beck Buch/  Wake Lack July  Lest Beck     /      0        / Lack  Wake  Mill  Weil Aug  Mill Lest  / Bedd Beck  /  Wake  Lack Sep  Beck Lest/      Bedd       / Wake  Weil  Lack  Mill
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Interesting breakdown; what conclusions are you drawing from this, however? I have an MS in Statistics, but I have to admit, I could never think up the number stratification and crunching ideas you have; did you work for Billy Beane, LOL?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : We don't play the CWS again. We ended up with 6 vs them and 10 vs Cleve. Doesn't seem right or fair.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I thought you were referring to same division.
    Oh yeah, the number of times a team plays another beyond their own division is  odd, like in interleague play. Some seasons Boston will play Seattle more than the Angels. It eventually equals out over the years, although inter-league scheduling is tricky in this regard.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Interesting breakdown; what conclusions are you drawing from this, however? I have an MS in Statistics, but I have to admit, I could never think up the number stratification and crunching ideas you have; did you work for Billy Beane, LOL?
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

    He's James' Moonbeane.
    (007)
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Games in same division will equal out by year's end. I think the reason why Boston at times has a lax record against other weaker divisions is that we don't see them very often. The more a team is played, the easier it is to expose weaknesses, especially with the pitching. That's why I was hoping Tito would opt for an alternative to Weiland facing the Rays again so quickly. Never thought coming into this season that the team would be in a situation where no alternative to a AAA pitcher could be found in the biggest series of the year. Sad.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I think there's a method to Terry's madness; given the SP situation, he knows he only has to win 2 to put TB to bed; so he threw a sacrificial lamb out there today (and hope for, perhaps, a miracle), in order to get his chips aligned for the rest of the series; better that than to lose tonight and burn the team out for the rest of this critical series given private fatigue and injury issues all teams have and manager's have to deal with this time of year. The last thing he's worried about are fickle fans. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    All are small sample sizes, but some things jump out:

    1) Lackey has been over 5.00 every month.
    2) Lackey had the worst ERA most months.
    3) Lester and Beckett have been consistent.
    4) Hardly anyone but Lester, Beckett and Beddard have been out of the 5.00+ category for more than one month.
     
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