A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III :        I agree, nhsteven, that such speculation smacks of fickle fandom stuff.  But how and when you rest your regulars becomes an interesting choice when and if you think you have the AL East and the AL's best record locked up.  Also, despite the current problems the Bosox have with the debilitating injuries, I doubt that the majority of the Yankee players fear the Rays more than the Red Sox.  I realize it is ludicrous to speculate on that, but if I had to stake my little baseball prognosticator life on it (all the players would be administered sodium thiopental after receiving a healthy dose of that infamous KGB mystery truth serum SP117), I would say they fear the Bosox more.....Why? Post Dramatic Stress Disorder from the 2004 ALCS. What else???      All kindling aside, if the WC race remains alive and well into the upcoming week, this will hardly be the last annoying post on this topic...   " Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living. " -  Mary Harris "Mother" Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) - 1930 (U.S.) )   when the boss comes callin' his take his toll  when the boss comes callin' don't you sell your soul  when the boss comes callin' we gotta organize          - Dropkick Murphys (for the workers of Wisconsin)
    Posted by caseycsw[/QUOTE]

    I don't personally think they fear TB more, I was just throwing that out there. As far as a Stress Disorder from 2004 is concerned, most of those guys are gone; of those that remain, you think Posada, Jeter & MO, who seem to have ice in their veins, have this affliction?

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I don't personally think they fear TB more, I was just throwing that out there. As far as a Stress Disorder from 2004 is concerned, most of those guys are gone; of those that remain, you think Posada, Jeter & MO, who seem to have ice in their veins, have this affliction?
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

         Probably not, nh.  It's really more about Yankee fans like myself who have trouble getting through even a regular season Yanks-Bosox battle without some wonderfully intrusive flashback from the 2004 ALCS.  Too dang stressful. 
         Okay, if I were really honest, and not afraid to be exposed as another villainous Gotham troll, I would say I would not mind (now "would not mind", mind you, is of course qualitatively different on an ethical level from opining: "I hope they do, even if my immortal baseball soul is damned!!") if the Yanks threw a few games to the Devil Dogs....Discretely and carefully thrown games, to be exact.  There, I said it. Bless me father, for I have sinned...

    "Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living."

    Mary Harris "Mother" Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) - 1930 (U.S.) )

     
    when the boss comes callin' his take his toll 
    when the boss comes callin' don't you sell your soul 
    when the boss comes callin' we gotta organize 

            - Dropkick Murphys (for the workers of Wisconsin)


     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Dropkick Murphys (for the workers of Wisconsin)

    Maybe Russia is a good place for Socialist Workers Party, I mean Democrat Party.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    ...an ethical level from opining: "I hope they do, even if my immortal baseball soul is damned!!") if the Yanks threw a few games to the Devil Dogs....Discretely and carefully thrown games, to be exact.  There, I said it. Bless me father, for I have sinned...

    Then God will repay you with a TB sweep of your Azzes in the ALCS.

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I don't usually make one game predictions, but I'm going out on a limb today:

    Sox 6
    TB   2
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Fister had an ERA a little over 2.00 over the last 6 games if I heard the TV correctly. I don't care where he has pitched and against who. The guy has been solid and represents a real problem for whoever makes it.

    I think as of this moment, the chances of the Sox making the playoffs are closer to 60%. That percentage dropped by 25% for me over the past 2 games. We are failing to recognize that the problem with the Rays is real. They have a hot pitching staff and ours looks like a group of AAA call ups. Even Lester is messing up. Beckett is not in prime form. Bedard might give us a solid start or not ( due to his injury ). The rest of them have been god awful. Houston, we DO have a problem. It was easy to see several days ago and that contingency is happening. 

    Theo knows this. The management staff knows this. Most of the baseball world knows what the plan is with Buchholz. At this point though, it may not make any difference.

    I'm not giving up here but if we are objective we obviously have a real problem. Our best shot is for TB to start losing some. They have to cool off or we are probably out. And with that starting pitching staff i don't see them cooling off. Maybe their bats cool off or the Yanks pound on them a little. And we need to get some wins probably from Beckett, Lester, Bedard and maybe Buchholz.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Fister had an ERA a little over 2.00 over the last 6 games if I heard the TV correctly. I don't care where he has pitched and against who. The guy has been solid and represents a real problem for whoever makes it.

    I'd certainly have wanted him on our team rather than who we have had.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : hill55 your a good stat man - always full of info. I hope we go to the play-offs and face Detroit, beating them. If we have to lose one game I hope its against Fister so we can lay it on harness 
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]
    Harness is a good poster who simply does not share my opinion on occasion.Smile

    I'm cool with that.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Surprised
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Fister had an ERA a little over 2.00 over the last 6 games if I heard the TV correctly. I don't care where he has pitched and against who. The guy has been solid and represents a real problem for whoever makes it. I think as of this moment, the chances of the Sox making the playoffs are closer to 60%. That percentage dropped by 25% for me over the past 2 games. We are failing to recognize that the problem with the Rays is real. They have a hot pitching staff and ours looks like a group of AAA call ups. Even Lester is messing up. Beckett is not in prime form. Bedard might give us a solid start or not ( due to his injury ). The rest of them have been god awful. Houston, we DO have a problem. It was easy to see several days ago and that contingency is happening.  Theo knows this. The management staff knows this. Most of the baseball world knows what the plan is with Buchholz. At this point though, it may not make any difference. I'm not giving up here but if we are objective we obviously have a real problem. Our best shot is for TB to start losing some. They have to cool off or we are probably out. And with that starting pitching staff i don't see them cooling off. Maybe their bats cool off or the Yanks pound on them a little. And we need to get some wins probably from Beckett, Lester, Bedard and maybe Buchholz.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Sadly, I am in agreement. I see too good a chance that the Sox blow it and don't make the playoffs. Current performance is more important than anything else at this point of the season. Forget talent level, odds, etc. Which direction ate the teams going? Yanks have have faltered and the Sox still are in trouble. The Rays pitching staff gives them an edge now. Small sample sizes sometimes are the the most telling.
     
    I'm not giving up, but wouldn't be shocked if the worst comes to pass.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We had good pitching. 

    We had good pitching depth. 

    This is what we got:
                         GS/IP  (missed GS/IP)

    1) Beckett  28/180  (2/15+)
    2) Lester    29/183  (2/15+)
    3) Buch       14/83    (17/110+)
    4a) Dice-K      7/37  (24/140+)
    4b) Beddard  6/32  (2/10+)
    5) Lackey   26/150  (4/22+)
    6) Wake      22/151  (none)
    7) Aceves    4/102   (none)
    8) Miller       12/63   (none)
    9) Weiland   4/19    (none)
    10) Doubront  0 GS (may have started some had he not been hurt)
    6) 
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III :      Probably not, nh.  It's really more about Yankee fans like myself who have trouble getting through even a regular season Yanks-Bosox battle without some wonderfully intrusive flashback from the 2004 ALCS.  Too dang stressful.       Okay, if I were really honest, and not afraid to be exposed as another villainous Gotham troll, I would say I would not mind (now "would not mind", mind you, is of course qualitatively different on an ethical level from opining: "I hope they do, even if my immortal baseball soul is damned!!") if the Yanks threw a few games to the Devil Dogs....Discretely and carefully thrown games, to be exact.  There, I said it. Bless me father, for I have sinned... " Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living. " -  Mary Harris "Mother" Jones (union and community organizer, born 1837 (Ireland) - 1930 (U.S.) )   when the boss comes callin' his take his toll  when the boss comes callin' don't you sell your soul  when the boss comes callin' we gotta organize          - Dropkick Murphys (for the workers of Wisconsin)
    Posted by caseycsw[/QUOTE]

    Once again; an imbecilic idea, short of resting players; like they did today, when the only starters who played were Cano (as a  DH), and Martin & Swisher (tjese 2 have missed time recently anyway due to injuries); however, you can be sure regardless that some RS fans will complain, should it matter when they play TB, that the Yankees are resting starters.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I don't usually make one game predictions, but I'm going out on a limb today: Sox 6 TB   2
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Moon, This team even has you not acting like yourself. We all got caught up in the preseason predictions. Tampa bay is clearly a better team then the sox,   (40 million dollar payroll) Not on paper but on the field no contest. When the chips were down they wow 6 out of 7 end of story. 
                                                                                                                                          
                                              
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Fister had an ERA a little over 2.00 over the last 6 games if I heard the TV correctly. I don't care where he has pitched and against who. The guy has been solid and represents a real problem for whoever makes it. I think as of this moment, the chances of the Sox making the playoffs are closer to 60%. That percentage dropped by 25% for me over the past 2 games. We are failing to recognize that the problem with the Rays is real. They have a hot pitching staff and ours looks like a group of AAA call ups. Even Lester is messing up. Beckett is not in prime form. Bedard might give us a solid start or not ( due to his injury ). The rest of them have been god awful. Houston, we DO have a problem. It was easy to see several days ago and that contingency is happening.  Theo knows this. The management staff knows this. Most of the baseball world knows what the plan is with Buchholz. At this point though, it may not make any difference. I'm not giving up here but if we are objective we obviously have a real problem. Our best shot is for TB to start losing some. They have to cool off or we are probably out. And with that starting pitching staff i don't see them cooling off. Maybe their bats cool off or the Yanks pound on them a little. And we need to get some wins probably from Beckett, Lester, Bedard and maybe Buchholz.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Complete  panic  post.

    1) I do care about who Fister faces and where. It affects his production.
    Since joining the Tigers, he's only faced two legit teams; TX and Tampa. And the Rays aren't likely to make the PO's. So, his numbers against PO teams are what is pertinent. His career ERA vs. NY/BS/TX is 4.56. Better this year, (around 3  appx 1.26 WHIP) but nothing to lose sleep over.

    2) How do you rate Boston's PO chances at 60%?
    Is this some kind of new math? If the team's were dead even, the RedSox would be better than 50% due to the lop-sided scheduling. If Boston goes for 5 - 5 against O's/NY, Tampa has to go 8 - 2 vs. NY/Toronto to beat us.
    Please explain to me how that's "60%"?


    3)  "Most of baseball" knows Buch is not a pitching reality this year.
    That's why Bedard was acquired.

    4) Rays have lost 3 of their last 6 games.
    Their "hot" pitching has surrendered 4, 6, 2, 4, 3, 5 runs in last 6 games: avg: 4 runs a game. I doubt that'll change much facing NY/Toronto going forward.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : Moon, This team even has you not acting like yourself. We all got caught up in the preseason predictions. Tampa bay is clearly a better team then the sox,   (40 million dollar payroll) Not on paper but on the field no contest. When the chips were down they wow 6 out of 7 end of story. 

    I agree, TB is better than a our team without Buch, Dice, and recently injured Youk, Beckett and Bedard. 

    I didn't foresee the injuries, just as I didn't last year. Maybe I should have. It's not a fluke anymore. It is a part of the make-up of this team now and going forward.

    On paper, this team when healthy should win close to 100 games. I still believe that. My issue was believing they could have less injuries than last year and win the division. I projected the Rays season almost exactly. I was dead wrong about the Yanks. I thought their starters were weak and they'd win 94 games tops. I was wrong about the Sox. However, I do not believe TB wins 6 of 7 if just Buch was healthy. I knew Youk had improved on his OPS for soemthing like 7 staright years, but never expected such a sharp down year. I knew Drew was in decline, but 2011 was rock bottom. I knew CC was way overpaid, but expected better. Lots went right. Lots went wrong. TB is a damn good team. They are not a fluke.                                                                 
    Posted by CHUBBIE99[/QUOTE]

     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I don't usually make one game predictions, but I'm going out on a limb today: Sox 6 TB   2
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Sorry about your prediction Moon, but when did Wakefield last give up less than 3 runs to justify your educated guess?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]We had good pitching.  We had good pitching depth.  This is what we got:                      GS/IP  (missed GS/IP) 1) Beckett  28/180  (2/15+) 2) Lester    29/183  (2/15+) 3) Buch       14/83    (17/110+) 4a) Dice-K      7/37  (24/140+) 4b) Beddard  6/32  (2/10+) 5) Lackey   26/150  (4/22+) 6) Wake      22/151  (none) 7) Aceves    4/102   (none) 8) Miller       12/63   (none) 9) Weiland   4/19    (none) 10) Doubront  0 GS (may have started some had he not been hurt) 6) 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    moon - First of all scrap 6,8,9,10 off your list  None of them are that good.
    7 isn't a starter though he should be now (Manager mistake. He doesn't do any good in the bullpen if the team is falling behind early every game)
    5 (Lackey) hasn't really been good in 2 years. He has the worst ERA of any starter in all of baseball (with qualified innings)
    4b) Walking wounded
    4a) LOL

    Given how Lester is pitcing now, there aren't many teams with worse starting pitching.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Sorry about your prediction Moon, but when did Wakefield last give up less than 3 runs to justify your educated guess?

    Because I look closer than just how many ERs have been allowed the last game or last few games. I feel Wake has been pitching better than the ERS allowed show. I also thought the 200 win goal was a distraction for Wake and maybe finally getting it would lift a weight off his back. I also thought TB was due for a bad game. I was wrong, and that is one reason I usually refrain from projecting one game and one series results.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    moon - First of all scrap 6,8,9,10 off your list  None of them are that good.
    7 isn't a starter though he should be now (Manager mistake. He doesn't do any good in the bullpen if the team is falling behind early every game)
    5 (Lackey) hasn't really been good in 2 years. He has the worst ERA of any starter in all of baseball (with qualified innings)
    4b) Walking wounded
    4a) LOL

    Given how Lester is pitcing now, there aren't many teams with worse starting pitching.

    Aceves is not good starting pitcher. 

    If Lackey did as good as he did last year this year, we're 5-7 up not.

    Buch and Dice-K are much better than our 6-9 starters. Dice-K getting hurt was not unexpected. Buch was. I'm not blaming it on injuries. This team is not conditioned well. I expected more health. I was wrong.

    We still have a good chance to make the playoffs and turn things around. We did it in May. We can do it in October. I have not given up on Lester. I still think Beckett can go toe to toe with anyone else's top starter. My hope is Beddard holds it together for a month and we ride the pen of Aceves, Bard and Paps to another ring. I don't feel as confident as I did from April to a few days ago, but I am keeping the faith.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I've been asking the last 4 starts to go to Varitek with Wakefield, I really don't see Salty helping him. He can't catch him, and costs him 2 to 3 baserunners a game with his inability to stop the ball from going to the backstop. Varitek had a good rythym with him v. Texas. But again, how many times have I said that Tito is simply inflexible when it comes to who catches who, who bats v lefties, etc....It's a tired story. Wakefield's defense has been nothing but atrocious behind him, including a butchered flyball by Conner and the throwing error by Aviles. McDonald overruns a ball. It's insane, the worst defense the Sox play is behind Wakefield, and the person who gets slammed with the blame because 6 runs crossed the plate---Wakefield. Also tired of hearing how catchers can't catch him. That's not true, but Salty has a complex now when he throws and it's killing Tim.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    You can make a case that Salty's defense, overall with everyone has gotten worse and worse over the past 2 months. He's either tired out from over-use or just not able to go the many starts he's had. I think he's just not used to the wear and tear of semi-regular catching. Varitek plays 2 times a week, he's not taxed, but his bat is back to being a lead pipe.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : moon - First of all scrap 6,8,9,10 off your list  None of them are that good. 7 isn't a starter though he should be now (Manager mistake. He doesn't do any good in the bullpen if the team is falling behind early every game) 5 (Lackey) hasn't really been good in 2 years. He has the worst ERA of any starter in all of baseball (with qualified innings) 4b) Walking wounded 4a) LOL Given how Lester is pitcing now, there aren't many teams with worse starting pitching.
    Posted by ADG[/QUOTE]

    Wake gave up two earned runs in 5 innings.

    You are becoming the biggest panic and quitter on this board.
    That distinction will make you look foolish by this month's end.
    And you can bet I'll remind you of it.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I also thought the 200 win goal was a distraction for Wake

    200 win and Wakefield are a distraction to this team.

    Salty passed ball was a scoring joke. Wakefield was responsible for at least 4 early runs, and immediately sparked opponent to another 2 runs after Red Sox put up 2 to close the gap.

    Confidence level in Wakefield is zero for anyone who is honest. 

    Despite historic September collapse, Red Sox are still over 90 percent odds to make playoffs. Only losers like Wakefield lose poise and panic. 10 games to go, one play at a time. Slow down the minds and stop making choke mistakes like not coming off the bag at first when a runner is headed to 3rd on a poor throw off the bag. Stop poppping up bunts and getting picked off 2nd. Stop missing cut off men, and stop swininging at pitches way out of strike zone. Slow down, get your wits and mind together, and put together one well executed inning at a time.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Varitek plays 2 times a week, he's not taxed, but his bat is back to being a lead pipe.

    danny, I have to disagree. Out of all Sox players with over 30 PAs the last 4 weeks, VTek has the 5th best OPS at .810. He's got 3 Hrs and 8 RBIs in 29 ABs.

    Salty has a .772 OPS in the same time period, but with 68 PAs.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    well, then there's even a bigger argument to play Tek more....
     

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