A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Tonight's game is probably, in my mind, the most important game... since the last most important game. It might hold some truths, especially come to the post season. With Buchholz still a pipe dream, I feel Erik Bedard is the next guy in line to be our #3. He's certainly shown the most promise until his re-injury imo. Any thoughts?  At this point, two wins in-a-row would qualify as a winning streak.                            

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : You'll find out at the beginning of October. Tampa's pitchers throwing more IP is not a reflection of Tito. It's a reflection of topof the rotation pitchers staying healthy, (which is often the by-product of more disciplined training and attention to detail), and pitch efficiency.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I didn't expect we'd be even in starter IP with TB. Of course injuries made up a big part of that differential, but when our horses were healthy, Tito chose to stick to strick pitch count numbers even in crucial games down the stretch. I don't think that with all the extra days rest and low pitch count games, it would hurt Beckett or Lester to have one or two games with 125-135 pitches... when it counts.

    I'm alos not so sure letting them have their only long pitch count game all year in the playoffs is such a bright idea. We'll see.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Tonight's game is probably, in my mind, the most important game... since the last most important game. It might hold some truths, especially come to the post season. With Buchholz still a pipe dream, I feel Erik Bedard is the next guy in line to be our #3. He's certainly shown the most promise until his re-injury imo. Any thoughts?  At this point, two wins in-a-row would qualify as a winning streak.                            
    Posted by emp9[/QUOTE]

    I do feel Beddar is the only realistic #3 option. His health, once again, is the issue.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    It does appear that Tito treats all his pitchers the same. Take today, he kept Lackey out there for 5 even though it was the wrong thing to do, and then he will pull a good starter in a key game at the end of 5 or 6. He simply gets to the pitch count and ends it. That is not managing.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III : I didn't expect we'd be even in starter IP with TB. Of course injuries made up a big part of that differential, but when our horses were healthy, Tito chose to stick to strick pitch count numbers even in crucial games down the stretch. I don't think that with all the extra days rest and low pitch count games, it would hurt Beckett or Lester to have one or two games with 125-135 pitches... when it counts. I'm alos not so sure letting them have their only long pitch count game all year in the playoffs is such a bright idea. We'll see.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    The "horses' haven't been healthy down the stretch. Tito didn't panic in this regard, as he still stuck to his belief...while listening to the sounds of ever-closing hoofs.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    There were a couple crucial games that tito yanked a healthy Lester a couple times after like 100-105 IP. I think there was 1 with Beckett as well. I remember, because we argued about it at the time. It had nothing to do with them not being healthy. You argues then that they were being saved for the playoffs.

    I dont have a fundemental disagreement with saving your starters. My point is that lester and beckett could have about 3-9 more IP this year and we might have 2-3 more wins, and their PO health would not be effected.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    We all think Bedard is our #3 at this point but even he has questionable health. We are what 2-10 in our last 12 games now. And some of you think we are going somewhere in the playoffs WITHOUT Buchholz?

    They are talking now about Buchholz getting a start before year end. It could happen and I hope it does.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    FWIW both Lester and Beckett have gone well past 100 pitches a number of times this year when the situation and their performance warranted.

    Beckett actually went deeper than the RS set as the original goal in his first start coming of of his ankle injury. Lester in this most recent swoon has driven his pitch count through the roof quickly and did not really have great command in either start. There was little advantage in leaving him in for an extra or 20 or 30 pitches.

    I understand the desire to search around and try and find "the better way" or the reason for this collapse. But sending these guys deeper in their starts hasn't been the primary cause of the collapse and might not even be a secondary factor. 

    In the end like most teams, the RS were ill prepared to lose two starting pitchers in one season (Buch and Dice K) and have one of the better pitchers be awful all season long (Lackey).

    Just like the RS were able to cloak the damage that all the injuries to key position players caused in 2010 for only so long, this year starting pitching has been that same issue.

    In the end it was very hard to absorb the loss of both Buch and Dice K. Because of lackey's struggles Bedard's ability to smooth that over was key.

    The swoon hit full force when both Bedard and Beckett became unavailable to the RS. If you keeping track that is 4 starting pitchers (Beckett, Bedard, Buch, Dice K) and one in year long stinkathon (Lackey). That is a whole rotation (FIVE).

    I am not sure there is a way a GM can build to protect a team from that level of depletion in starting pitching or for a manager to manage around it. Add in the terrible year from Lackey and this was a recipe for disaster.

    Red Auerbach famously said once the in the late 50's and 60's he felt he had the best team but every year prayed for health.  
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    On Lackey, is anyone still campaigning for him throwing in the postseason, even with Wakefield's not impressive numbers in recent starts? I think yesterday's start is the end of John in 2011. Even if Aceves gets a spot start or Doubront gets a start, there's no way that guy pitches again in 2011 in my opinion. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    It's a freaking miracle we are still in it. We are hitting a ton, leading the AL in OF UZR/150 and doing some good things but IMO, we can't beat top competition, with this team, unless we get another stud in the starting pitching staff firing on all cylinders. At this point, without Buchholz it will be extremely difficult for us to advance IMO. But I think Buchholz will be available, even in series one.

    Personally, I'd leave both Wakefield and Lackey off the PO roster. Controversial for sure but do we need a guy ( Lackey ) with an ERA above 6.30 after 30 starts? I'm not going there.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]On Lackey, is anyone still campaigning for him throwing in the postseason, even with Wakefield's not impressive numbers in recent starts? I think yesterday's start is the end of John in 2011. Even if Aceves gets a spot start or Doubront gets a start, there's no way that guy pitches again in 2011 in my opinion. 
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    He may pitch again but he shouldn't pitch again. Maybe some mop up duty in some games.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    To me at this point there is little to no difference between Wakefield and Lackey, except that the RS are wed to one by contract for big money for the next three years once you throw years of prior service for the RS out the window. Both throw you into holes early and give back runs as quick as you get them. Wake does have those added factors of being very hard to catch and terribly easy to steal bases off of. This is shades of stink-a-tude at this point.

    Forced with only burying one in the bullpen and excluding him from the PS roster, for business reasons moving forward it would be Wake IMO. I don't think the RS have the option to bury both in BP for the remaining games but excluding both form the PS may be what has to be done.

    Now that assumes the RS make the PS and as is always the case when in the middle of really awful losing streak, it is hard to see that today. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    A realistic look at 2011 right now has to be dismal, especially starting pitching--see fivekatz above.

    Lately the bullpen has been downright decent, but it has also hurt, especially for those 3 or so games when Bard turned sour.  He said he has a hitch in his motion and could fix it, and he was right. 

    Even the lineup is worrisome, especially against decent pitching.  See yesterday's first game against the Orioles and the eight most recent games with Tampa Bay. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    WEEI is reporting that if Bedard pitches well tonight and is healthy, Tito's plan is to skip Lackey on Sunday and pitch Bedard. Wake is still scheduled to go Saturday.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I understand the desire to search around and try and find "the better way" or the reason for this collapse. But sending these guys deeper in their starts hasn't been the primary cause of the collapse and might not even be a secondary factor. (katz)

    I, for one, have not tried to claim it was a major issue. I know some may advocate pitching Beckett, Lester and Bedard 130-140 pitches nearly every game, but not me. I actually like the idea of saving our starters of rthe playoffs while possibly extending their careers, since most have long term deals. My issue was that we allowed our key starters extra days rest almost everytime we had a day off and kept them on a low to medium pitch count almost every start they had, but then when we got to a big and crucial game, we yanked them at the same time as other less important games. I'm only talking maybe an extra inning in 2-3 games for each of Beckett and Lester. I was wrong about the low pitchvs NY and TB  accounting for maybe 2-3 losses. In hindsight, it doesn't look like any were lost to those two teams in particular.

    Lester has been between 87 and 115 pitches in all but 3 games this year (May 30th vs CWS 127 pitches, 6/30 with 120 pitches vs Phi, and 119 vs MN on 8/10). None of these games were really urgent win games. 
    8/5 vs NYY  108 pitches (3-2 loss)
    8/16 vs TB  113 pitches (3-1 loss)
    9/1 vs NYY  114 pitches (4-2 loss)
    9/17vs TB   107 pitches (4-3 loss)
    (We ended up losing all of these games without any relievers letting up any runs, so it is doubtful we would have won any of them, but my point is, Tito did not let a rested pitcher go a few extra pitches in a key game.)

    Beckett pitched 125 pitches on April 21st at LAA. He hasn't gone over 111 since.
    7/17 @ TB  106 pitches (win 1-0)
    8/7  v NYY  101 pitches (win 3-2)
    8/31 v NYY  111 pitches (win 9-5)
    9/16 vs TB  109 pitches (win 4-3)

    Some surprising numbers on TB pitchers:
    Shields: as many complete games he has, he does not have many games with a lot of pitches. He only has 4 games with over 118 pitches topping out at 126 once. 
    Price: went over 119 pitches just twice and never over 121 pitches.

    I think our biggest issue seems to be Dice-K-itus: the inability to go beyond 5 or 6 IP on 110-120 pitches.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]WEEI is reporting that if Bedard pitches well tonight and is healthy, Tito's plan is to skip Lackey on Sunday and pitch Bedard. Wake is still scheduled to go Saturday.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't be surprised if they skip Wakefield and throw Buchholz out there instead. To be announced soon.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I have seen several games where Beckett and Lester were pulled early when pitching well as you said Moon.  Beckett was frustrated and acted snappy with Tito.  I agree with you that if the game is critical and the pitcher is doing well, leave him in for 1-3 batters longer.

    Harness, I think of you as "the pitching guy" and I know you and others are saying that we make a huge hole when we take Aceves out of his highly successful assignment--and I agree.  However, right now by the time we get to him, we are down 7-2, so what good is he?  I just think he could give us five good innings when no one else can right now, then we use Miller, Doobie, Bowden.  Can you convince me we would be doing worse than starting Lackey and then going to Aceves? While on pitching, I was amazed at you analysis of Wake's start and his pitching arc(s).  I't really sad if he went away from his best arc because we didn't have anyone to catch it--if that's what you're saying.

    5K, I think your evaluation of this season and pitching is right on.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Harness, I want to approach it from another angle.  Are you old enough to remember "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain..."  Well, what we got now is "Beckett and Lester then let it fester..."  What I'm suggesting is "Aceves and a plaster, and the playoffs come faster..."  Maybe I'm trying too hard...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Aceves is not used in 7-2 games. We have been in close games many times recently. The only thing that has changed recently is that we are losing those close games. Some were due to Bard's tough stretch, some by others.

    Yes, 3 of our 5 starters have done very poorly nearly very start recently, but we have still remained close enough to win in many of those starts. Using Aceves in releif allows him to pitch in 3-5 games every 10 starts (2 rotations). Starting allows him to pitch 2 times every 10 games and he is not conditioned to go 7 IP, so we actually would get less IP from him over the last 10 games by starting him than by using him in releif.

    I have no issure with using him for one start before the season ends, if he is rested and there is a "no tomorrow" situation.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Would we have been better off throwing Aceves out there as a starter 3 weeks ago when this was first discussed? Clearly...Yes. It's not ideal. None of us like it but considering the alternatives yes. Wieland has something like 5 starts now? Wakefield has been awful. Lackey horrible all freaking year. Miller's ERA well over 5.00. I didn't like using Aceves as a starter back then either but it was better than what we had at the time and we had lots of guys who could come up and give us middle relief innings from pawtucket. We could have put them on a train every day.

    The games have been over by the 3rd inning a lot.  
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Harness, I want to approach it from another angle.  Are you old enough to remember "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain..."  Well, what we got now is "Beckett and Lester then let it fester..."  What I'm suggesting is "Aceves and a plaster, and the playoffs come faster..."  Maybe I'm trying too hard...
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    Critter, "Let it fester" pretty much describes it exactly!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    Who's going to come in for Aceves after 4-5 IP and let up 4-5 runs?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    I know we don't want to discuss it but the Sox might not make the playoffs. It's not 90% likely when we drill down deeply into the situation. The schedule benefits us a lot but TB does have a hot pitching staff and they could tie us or beat the Sox before year end. We need to think outside the box. We can still make the playoffs but I think the odds are more like 60% likely at this point. We are not playing well. We need to find some starters who can keep us in the game enough to win over half our games through year end.

    Tonight, If Pedroia's laser beam to left in the 9th is fair we maybe had a 50% chance to tie that game. It's foul and we lose. They got up against Paps and they clear the bases with an opposite field triple. Stuff happens. Having great pitching keeps stuff from happening so much. TB has much better starting pitching and from this year's preseason Moon and I projected them to be in it to the end. That's exactly what happened. If anything TB is even stronger now than we projected with Jennings developing into a near stud and Moore should help them going forward also, even though he has started off badly. Jennings has put up Crawford type numbers for mlb minimum.  

    We have a problem. Let's maximize our opportunity for success. If Beckett and Lester need to pitch on fewer days rest so be it. If we need to put Aceves in as a starter to give us a chance to win a game so be it. If we have a chance to give Buchholz a start and they think he can help, let's do it. The alternative is Lackey, Wieland, Miller, Wakefield...etc. It's real. We need to look at it that way. We need to pull out all the stops to make the playoffs or it's over folks.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    If Aceves can only go 3-4 innings then I'd slot Doubront ( Lefty after righty ), Bowden, and others to fill in. Atkinson...etc. I know their numbers haven't been good either but I think they have a better chance of getting us through a couple innings then relying on Lackey, Wakefield, Miller ...etc. as they have had lots of opportunity to succeed this year and they have just not cut the mustard.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part III

    The Sox should let Aviles pitch. Hell, the guy is doing practically everything else, might as well give him the No. 3 spot in the rotation.
     
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