A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

      I'd offer him about Lackey money ($83M/5 with a 6th year club option $10M with $2M buyout). Don't quote me on this

    You also offered Adam Dunn a long term fortune. Wilson is not worth a long term large base contract. Offer 3 years and 30M, just like for Lackey.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Is this a wish? Or a request?  The end of the month. I realize what you weren't implying, Moon . I just don't like using that term in association with the club....in any way. The collapse is tough enough - and sticking around to hear posters like AndrewBitch gloat makes it all the more so.
    Posted by harness

    I understand your point. I'll miss you this winter, but look forward to another fun season next year.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I like CJ. He doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on his arm for his age. However, his price tag will be very very high, and the chance of another Lackey is scary. I think someone will outbid us.  I'd offer him about Lackey money ($83M/5 with a 6th year club option $10M with $2M buyout). Don't quote me on this. I haven't really researched this issue that much yet. I may change my mind after seeing other options.
    Posted by moonslav59


    The price will be the stickler. But I don't see him as Lackey. Here's why:
    There's no evidence of regression in TX.
    It's rare to see a reliever have such success as a starter. Two years, with improvement no less, shows it's not a fluke.

    Career:
    27-14 in TX 3.89 ERA
    16-21 away  3.26 ERA

    W/L numbers reflect poor team OPS on the road.

    2011 splits:
    TX: 8-2      3.69 ERA  1.231 WHIP
    Road: 8-5  2.31  ERA  1.149 WHIP

    Goes to show how tough it is to pitch in TX...and why they are where they are.


    C.J. is exceptional vs. Rays/Boston. Not bad vs. NY.
    Not good vs. O's/Toronto, which tells me he might play to his level of competition.


    His numbers are quite good in NY/Baltimore/Tampa/Boston - so venue isn't an issue, except in Toronto.

    The risk is weighing price against possible injury.
    I wonder if Nolan Ryan was instrumental in making him into a starter.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Oh man I nearly forgot, my favorite time of the year - harness on hiatus. Woooo-hoooooo!

    Make sure back in time for Spring Training to accpet your loss for our bet.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Oh man I nearly forgot, my favorite time of the year - harness on hiatus . Woooo-hoooooo! Make sure back in time for Spring Training to accpet your loss for our bet.
    Posted by BurritoT



    Don't fret. I'll be here if I can still see the damn posts.
    How would you like your 2-week vacation in June?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : The price will be the stickler. But I don't see him as Lackey. Here's why: There's no evidence of regression in TX. It's rare to see a reliever have such success as a starter. Two years, with improvement no less, shows it's not a fluke. Career: 27-14 in TX 3.89 ERA 16-21 away  3.26 ERA W/L numbers reflect poor team OPS on the road. 2011 splits: TX: 8-2      3.69 ERA  1.231 WHIP Road: 8-5  2.31  ERA  1.149 WHIP Goes to show how tough it is to pitch in TX...and why they are where they are. C.J. is exceptional vs. Rays/Boston. Not bad vs. NY. Not good vs. O's/Toronto, which tells me he might play to his level of competition. His numbers are quite good in NY/Baltimore/Tampa/Boston - so venue isn't an issue, except in Toronto. The risk is weighing price against possible injury. I wonder if Nolan Ryan was instrumental in making him into a starter.
    Posted by harness

    I agree, but he'll probably demand many years, and I think Theo will shy away from locking yet another starter up for many years.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I understand your point. I'll miss you this winter, but look forward to another fun season next year.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I'll be here for a while yet. The shame about this season is that the fun was lost.
    Pity the season didn't end in July. I do think Boston would have been ring contenders. NY was beatable. Philly is out. TX is the team that always worried me. They may go all the way now.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Harness hiatus means propaganda and drivel meter free falls.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Harness hiatus means propaganda and drivel meter free falls.
    Posted by 1958lesspaul


    Yes, I hope you have a nice winter also.

    Drivel is blaming the collapse on "coasting" when in fact too many pitchers were pitching hurt...and brought back too soon.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Don't fret. I'll be here if I can still see the damn posts. How would you like your 2-week vacation in June?
    Posted by harness


    I plan to wait until the most oportune moment to impose your 2 week ban, say maybe in September when the Sox hold a one game lead going into a weekend series vs.NY Laughing
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I plan to wait until the most oportune moment to impose your 2 week ban, say maybe in September when the Sox hold a one game lead going into a weekend series vs.NY 
    Posted by BurritoT


    I know you'll be traveling in Sept. So, I'll likely choose your down-time for June.
    This way, I get parts of two Burrito-free months!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I'll be here for a while yet. The shame about this season is that the fun was lost. Pity the season didn't end in July. I do think Boston would have been ring contenders. NY was beatable. Philly is out. TX is the team that always worried me. They may go all the way now.
    Posted by harness


    It was fun for me until the bottom of the ninth of the last game.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I know you'll be traveling in Sept. So, I'll likely choose your down-time for June. This way, I get parts of two Burrito-free months!
    Posted by harness


    What was the bet?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    OK, let's play out some hypotheticals - which of these (if any) do you pull the trigger on.  Also, which do you think are unrealistic returns for Ellsbury? 1) SF offers Cain & Romo (I can only see this happening if Sabathia signs with SF in the off-season) Close, but no. 2 years of Jacoby for 1 year of Cain and 3 years of Romo is not quite enough. Cain is 27 and I feel he is the real deal. I'd love to have him here, but he'll make $15M in 2012 and the will be a FA.  Romo has 3 arb years left after making $450K this year. Maybe Ellsbury, Lowrie, Kalish, Weiland and Ranaudo for Cain, Romo and Bumgarner 2) ATL offers Venters and Teheran No. I'd rather give Ellsbury, Reddick and Lowrie for Tommy Hanson (3 or 4 arbs left) or Jair Jurrjens (2 arbs left), O'Flaherty (LHP relief with 2 arbs left) and Teheran. 3) CWS offers Sale and Viciedo No. Maybe this...  Ellsbury, Lackey, Reddick and Lowrie for Alexei Ramirez   12 :$5M,  13 :$7M,  14 :$9.5M,  15 :$10M,  16 :$10M club option ($1M buyout)  and Jesse Crain ($9M/2) and Chris Sale (4-5 years of team control and arbs) 4) LAA offers Walden & Trout
    Posted by moonslav59

    I think we need to hold onto both Lowrie and Reddick if we trade Ellsbury.  We could take a chance on Sizemore to fill CF short-term and cheap, and have him battle Redick and Kalish for the two available OF slots, and I think we'd be fine with an all LH outfield, provided Lavarnway is catching against lefties.  But we would need Lowrie's bat in the lineup against lefties - it might be a good idea to give him some starts in LF.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tbrod. Show tbrod's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Sure, let's get rid of Pedroia, Scutaro, and Youk and have an all left handed hitting team.
    Yeah, Lowrie will even the score against lefty pitchers. Yeah, Lavarnway will hit 50 homers.
    What planet are you on???????????
    Do you get that this team has ZERO right handed power. Isn't it odd that EVERY team in the playoffs has RIGHT HANDED POWER.
    Braun, Pujols, Cabrera, Beltre, Cruz, Holiday, Hart.
    Yeah, let's have Reddick hit .240 with 12 HRs and 50 RBI. You really think big, eh?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In response to C.J. Wilson, I think he's a vey good pitcher, but will command too high a price tag.  I would go up to 4/48, but I don't think that will get it done. Trade market might be our best solution, or go after some smaller names like Edwin Jackson.  Perhaps we could bring Brandon Webb in on a one year, small money deal.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think we need to hold onto both Lowrie and Reddick if we trade Ellsbury.  We could take a chance on Sizemore to fill CF short-term and cheap, and have him battle Redick and Kalish for the two available OF slots, and I think we'd be fine with an all LH outfield, provided Lavarnway is catching against lefties.  But we would need Lowrie's bat in the lineup against lefties - it might be a good idea to give him some starts in LF.

    My thinking was that these teams need hitting, and so Lowrie would sweeten the pie. I'm also thinking we will get a RH'd bat for the OF, and since this team will refuse to ever sit CC beyond normal rest no matter how bad the splits are, Lowrie won't be needed in the OF.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In response to C.J. Wilson, I think he's a vey good pitcher, but will command too high a price tag.  I would go up to 4/48, but I don't think that will get it done. Trade market might be our best solution, or go after some smaller names like Edwin Jackson.  Perhaps we could bring Brandon Webb in on a one year, small money deal.
    Posted by titletownfan

    I think the price will get too high as well, but I'd go $56/4 or maybe even $70M/5. 

    One way to look at it is this...FA's cost a lot, but there is no money spent on developing 50 - 100 pitchers in the minors to get one guy like CJ, so their salaries, in a sense, include that cost.

    I like Edwin Jackson. I always like Buehrle, but he seems to have troubles in Fenway. A trade for a guy like Guthrie might be possible.

    Brandon Webb? Not a bad gamble, and maybe something Theo would do, but I hate building a rotation from the #4/5 slot and down. It worked for the Yanks this year, but it's a long shot at best.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Here's a rundown of some teams with possible salary dumps (along with a some other notable players that may be able to be included in a deal with the Sox if we take the "dump' player). I'll do more teams later.

    Angels:
    Wells: 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
    Hunter12:$18M
    Dan Haren12:$12.75M, 13:$15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout)
    Bobby Abreu:12:$9M option ($1M buyout)
    E.Santana12:$11.2M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
    J. Weaver12:$14M, 13:$16M, 14:$16M, 15:$18M, 16:$20M
    S. Downs: : 12: $5M, 13: $5M
    Takahashi12:$4.2M
    M. Izturis12:$3.8M

    Cubs:
    A. Soriano: 12-14:$18M annually
    Zambrano12:$18M
    A. Ramirez12:$16M club option ($2M buyout)
    Dempster12:$14M player option
    M. Byrd12:$6.5M
    C- Geovanny Soto (2 arbs left)/SP Matt Garza (2 arbs left)/RP Sean Marshall ($3.1M)

    Mets:
    J. Santana: 12:$24M, 13:$25.5M, 14:$25M club option ($5.5M buyout)
    J. Bay: 12:$16M, 13:$16M, 14:$17M club option ($3M buyout)
    D. Wright: 12:$15M,13:$16M club option ($1M buyout)
    RA Dickey12:$4.25M, 13:$5M club option ($0.3M buyout)

    Dodgers:
    Chad Billingsley: 12:$9M, 13:$11M, 14:$12M, 15:$14M club option ($3M buyout)
    Ted Lilly: 12:$10.5M, 13:$12M
    Juan Uribe: 12:$8M, 13:$7M (plus $1M to be paid in 2014)
    Matt Guerrier: 12:$3.75M, 13:$3.75M
    Andre Ethier: 1 arb left ($9.5M in 2011)
    Matt Kemp: 1 arb left ($7.1M in 2011)
    Clayton Kershaw: 3 arb years left ($500K in 2011)
    Javy Guerra (25) and Kenley Jansen (23) 

    Astros:
    Carlos Lee: 12:$18.5M (Full No-Trade)
    Wandy Rodriguez: 12:$10M, 13:$13M, 14:$13M club option ($2.5M buyout) player option if traded.
    Brett Myers: 12:$11M, 13:$10M club option ($3M buyout)
    Brandon Lyon: 12:$5.5M

    (For those who think Theo is the worst...look at some of these signings.)

     
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Goofywocky. Show Goofywocky's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Not Dark Yet:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZgBhyU4IvQ
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : What was the bet?
    Posted by moonslav59


    I said at least two of these three will return next year: Wake  Tek  Papi
    after Burrito said they wouldn't.

    Obviously, at the time the wager was made, I had no idea the collapse would occur or Tito would get axed. This could easily play into altering 'normal' FO mind-set. But I still think they'll come to their senses and realize how difficult it'll be to replace them.

    There's a possibility Wake might semi-retire - that's to say he might be available to pitch the 2nd half of a season. Either way, it means he'll return, albeit half way or all the way.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I think we need to hold onto both Lowrie and Reddick if we trade Ellsbury.  We could take a chance on Sizemore to fill CF short-term and cheap, and have him battle Redick and Kalish for the two available OF slots, and I think we'd be fine with an all LH outfield, provided Lavarnway is catching against lefties.  But we would need Lowrie's bat in the lineup against lefties - it might be a good idea to give him some starts in LF.
    Posted by slomag


    The real issue with trading Jake is:
    1) Who will replace his production?
    2) suitors know they only get him for two controllable years, and high arbitration ones at that. So the player(s) we get in return will be based on that.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The real issue with trading Jake is:
    1) Who will replace his production?

    So this means he should bring a lot in return?

    2) suitors know they only get him for two controllable years, and high arbitration ones at that. So the player(s) we get in return will be based on that.

    So, this means we won't get what he is worth?

    I'm not for trading Jacoby just for the sake of some theory. I want to see what we get before I agree or not, but the theory does make some sense. Our offense is very good. Trading jacoby before we lose him anyway for top pitching can help for many years beyond 2013.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Drivel is blaming the collapse on "coasting" when in fact too many pitchers were pitching hurt...and brought back too soon.

    In fact, the coasting started with the 6 man monte rotation Timmy T-Ball ceremonal record chase tour under the pretense of keeping starters healthy. I called it at that and said it was a mistake when the Red Sox were still looking record good and astride the top of AL East. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Drivel is blaming the collapse on "coasting" when in fact too many pitchers were pitching hurt...and brought back too soon. In fact, the coasting started with the 6 man monte rotation Timmy T-Ball ceremonal record chase tour under the pretense of keeping starters healthy. I called it at that and said it was a mistake when the Red Sox were still looking record good and astride the top of AL East. 
    Posted by 1958lesspaul



    And you were wrong.
    Your perception of a 6-man rotation as "coasting" is laughable. It was done to utilize depth at the time, thus allowing the main arms an extra day's rest. Not deploying it might have meant an earlier injury break-down.

    As for Ceremonial record tour, again you come up short. Wake pitched because they needed him in the rotation. From win #199 up until win #200, he never gave more than 4 ER in any outing. He had a 4.79 ERA during the span. No starting pitcher had an ERA below 5.25 in Sept.
    Try putting things into perspective instead of throwing darts at the same player.
     
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