A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    You know, having Tek as deep back up would be fine but Tek is not going to be willing to go to pawtucket. If he knows he could be cut early on, with little salary impact, then I don't think he accepts arb. I think we might get a pick out of him.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    When it comes to Fielder, elephant in the room is fitting. :)

    And yet another LH bat with 200 point plus swing in OPS splits versus LH pitching.

    Boom, as for Tek if the RS tell him they are looking to go in a different direction and would like to offer him the option of making a retirement announcement or that for procedural purposes they will be offering him arbitration, he won't accept the arbitration the more I think about it.

    I know Lavarnway is exciting but his AAA splits are tiny and his MLB splits microscopic. He isn't Pedey and he isn't even Ellsbury. He is closer to Buchholz whose rush to MLB roster in 2008 was a train wreck that could have broken a kid with less will than Clay. I honestly hope the RS allow the "wine to mature" into a "fine Cabernet" rather than risk getting some "sour grape juice."

    The RS IMO should they pass on Tek would be well served looking at a guy like Ramon Hernandez on a 1 year deal.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Only 2 catchers have hit over 30 HR in the minors at any level ( besides  Lavarnway ), since 1995. Mathis and some other guy who never made it as far as I can tell. That's a pretty large sample size, every league, rookie league, A, AA and AAA. He then hit 2 more in the majors for a total of 34. I think the guy has a mlb bat right now. Bring him UP!

    Just one man's opinion!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    You don't want Cordero. I follow the Reds as well as the Sox, and he is not to be trusted. Every save is an adventure, and while he does convert most fo the time, being in Boston might turn him into Gagne 2. Better be careful there, maybe use him as a 7th inning guy and hat might be safe. In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : No need to be sorry. I have long said no closer but Mo is worth over $13M/yr let alone for 4+ years. I want Papi back too, but with Youk's health in question and lavarnway beating down the door, the writing may be on the wall. I'm not saying I am for this move, but assume we cut ties with Paps and trade Youk $12M to Cincy for closer Cordero $12M and prospects. We fill one slot without raising payroll. Youk's slot is filled by: Middlebrooks: May not be ready for 2011. Aviles vs career RHPs: .703 Lowrie vs career LHPs: .919 (Youk had about the worst fielding numbers at 3B in MLB in 2011.) This year Youk had an .833 OPS, but was hurt a lot. Our 3B OPS was .812. Combined, Aviles, Lowrie and Middlebrooks might come close to .812. That move frees up money to keep Papi, Scutaro and upgrade RF and pitching.
    Posted by moonslav59


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from johnnyboy9. Show johnnyboy9's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    why worry about next year. new england's other favorite team is going to the world series this year. join the other half of new england baseball fans. "new england runs on pinstripes!!!"
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think Paps is going to start degrading some but he is one guy who can handle the pressure in Boston. If we are going to spend up to $13 mil per year he might be one of the few guys worth it. I'd much rather keep him then Ortiz going forward. I'm ok if they find another decent option though. I don't think it's Bard.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    You know, Aceves might not be a bad closer!

    I like that he can go multiple innings and also that he seems to be able to go 3-4 games in a row if necessary. He's seems kind of crazy. Maybe he'd be a good closer!


    Saves a ton of money folks and gets us 2 picks. I don't see Papelbon as a starter. Or Aceves in an ideal situation.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Guys, I'm still staggering under all the news at year's end.  I would like to chime in on some of the topics above. 1/ Youk is my favorite player but Moon was right.  He's getting injured at 3rd.  I would explore all trade options.  If Papi goes and no trade benefits RS, then Youk becomes DH and super sub. 2/ Wake and Tek go.  We need to get younger. 3/ Get ready.  I want Theo and brass to approach Paps and talk him into starting for the good of RS.  Our starting pitching immediately becomes more respectable.  Bard becomes closer or we find someone to take that role. 4/ I agree with all here who want to explore all trades to make this team better.  It may be impossible to extremely difficult, but explore those trades suggested to get rid of Lackey and CC.  Someone said earlier that Angels had been interested in CC?  If these trades don't materialize, then new staff makes these two priority work in ST. 5/ Lavarnway takes Tek's role and plus some DH's first half of year and if he comes along, then he becomes #1 catcher as year progresses. 6/Keep Scut another year.  He was a dirt dog at end of year with Pedey and Ells.
    Posted by Critter23
    Crit, Papelbon isn't a starter. He is a two pitch pony whose gift is the 9th inning is candy to him and he has that unique knack to wash a tough loss of in the shower and move on that only closers do. And the RS are going to have to sign him to a deal that pays him like one of the top closers of the game to find out if he can even be a starter.

    The Angels have no interest in Crawford at this point and Crawford's 2011 is probably the only thing that makes them feel any good about the Vernon Wells trade.

    In Lackey's case wouldn't everybody be happy at this point if Lackey from this point forward pitched like he did in 2010?

    In both cases the incremental improvement the RS might get in trade from those two's 2011 debacles plus the small amount of budget relief derived likely would less than the possibe bounce the RS still could get.

    It will be a risk but IMHO the RS will take that risk. Neither guy's stock is going to get much lower if they fail again in 2012 after all. And another way to look at this is that if Buchholz wasn't lost for over half the year, the RS make the playoffs , the collapse never happens with those two guys having dog years.

    Those two will be work priorities all winter, it won't wait until ST IMHO. Look for CC to have his swing re-engineered from the ground up too IMHO. We won't see his front foot in the 1B stands next year.

     


     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Only 2 catchers have hit over 30 HR in the minors at any level ( besides  Lavarnway ), since 1995. Mathis and some other guy who never made it as far as I can tell. That's a pretty large sample size, every league, rookie league, A, AA and AAA. He then hit 2 more in the majors for a total of 34. I think the guy has a mlb bat right now. Bring him UP! Just one man's opinion!
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    If Mathis is one of the two and the other never made it to the show that says a lot about how important that stat is.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bostonman1025. Show Bostonman1025's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    What about Youkilis for Joe Nathan and Miguel Sano? And sign a stop-gap 3B to hold the spot until  Sano develops, maybe two years of Aramis Ramirez.

    Lackey for Zambrano and a prospect seems like a decent trade, after we eat one year of Lackey's deal.

    Ellsbury can be had for the right price, like a top of the rotation pitcher, i.e. King Felix, Linecum, etc. That is where we should be focusing our efforts. Our Starting Pitching.

    I would revisit the Justin Upton trade front or what there was of it. See if they will take Bard, maybe swing a three team with the Dodgers where the D'backs get Either and Bard, Dodgers get prospects, and the Red Sox get Upton.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Guys, I'm still staggering under all the news at year's end.  I would like to chime in on some of the topics above.

    1/ Youk is my favorite player but Moon was right.  He's getting injured at 3rd.  I would explore all trade options.  If Papi goes and no trade benefits RS, then Youk becomes DH and super sub.

    I'm not sure if Youk has the DH mentality, but we may have to find out.

    2/ Wake and Tek go.  We need to get younger.

    We need to get younger at starting positions. I do not think having old guys as our back-up catcher and 7th starter is that big a deal.

    3/ Get ready.  I want Theo and brass to approach Paps and talk him into starting for the good of RS.  Our starting pitching immediately becomes more respectable.  Bard becomes closer or we find someone to take that role.

    It may be easier to make Bard a starter and keep paps at closer.

    5/ Lavarnway takes Tek's role and plus some DH's first half of year and if he comes along, then he becomes #1 catcher as year progresses.

    He needs to play nearly everyday, and it increases his value if he gets catching experience.

    6/Keep Scut another year.  He was a dirt dog at end of year with Pedey and Ells.

    Tough call.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

     I looked it up and it's actually 3 propsects that have done it. It was Mike Napoli rather than Mathis ( my mistake...Sorry ). He has turned out to be a decent mlb level hitter. Another was the Blue Jays Arencibia who looks like a keeper also ( 2 out of 3 so far ! ). The last was a guy named Todd Greene back in 1995 who had an 11 year mlb career but never made it big. So all 3 guys had significant mlb level careers. ( 3 for 3 ).

    Lavarnway also hit for average though, OBP and OPS. He had better numbers than all these guys overall. Better average and OPS.

    Look at the most recent Baseball America write up on him in their 2011 All Star selections:

    Lavarnway stands well above the field, even in a season when seven other catchers hit at least 20 home runs—a group that includes Eastern League MVP Travis d'Arnaud and top prospects Wilin Rosario of the Rockies, Tommy Joseph of the Giants and Derek Norris of the Nationals. That's because Lavarnway batted .290/.376/.563 and mashed 32 homers at the two highest levels of the minors to earn his first taste of big league play. For a catcher to slug 30 homers in the minors is a rare feat. The Blue Jays' J.P. Arencibia hit 32 bombs for Triple-A Las Vegas in 2010; Mike Napoli struck 31 homers for Double-A Arkansas in 2005; and going further back, Todd Greene hit 40 at two levels in 1995.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    They tried to make Bard a starter and it didn't work out at all. I don't see them trying that again.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    What do you guys think of Aceves as a closer? I absolutely could see that. If they were thinking about it they probably wouldn't mention it in order to not offend Papelbon. I think that option is doable.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    What do you guys think of Aceves as a closer. I absolutely could see that. If they were thinking about it they probably wouldn't mention it in order to not offend Papelbon. I think that option is doable.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom
    It is a fall back position that might work but I think they still give Bard a run at it first. Ups and downs in 2011 or not the kid is remarkable with inherited runners late and close and we have seen Aceves middle of the game mostly. Aceves likely would try and fill Bard's role which would be a leap for him as it is and one of the biggest domino affects of Papelbon's departure.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I never looked at Zambrano's vesting option before and now see that yes the exposure is limited to one year. Still, the issues with Zambrano run very deep. I know the Cubs rather not eat that last $18M but why not rather than take on $45.75 for Lackey? The Cubs could probably eat $15M and get a second tier prospect or two, assuming that Zambrano with his full trade clause approved. BTW how did Kevin Youkilis become a salary dump?
    Posted by fivekatz

    I didn't mean to put Youk in as a salary dump, but he has been mentioned a lot in trade rumors, so I included his salary with the others.

    How's this?

    Crawford ($120M/6) & Lackey ($46M/3) 
    for
    Soriano ($54M/3), Zambrano ($18M/1) and  Dempster ($14M) 

    We take the hit for 2012, but then are just on the hook for Soriano for 2 more years, but rid of CC and Lack.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Any thoughts on Fielder? It would seem that he is the elephant in the room, along with Pujols. I would think the Yanks would strongly consider that move with him at DH. Imagine that lineup!

    Where will ARod play when he's 53?
    If we get Fielder, the Yanks might get Papi.

    If we let Ortiz go for 2 picks, Fielder would seem to be a better bet going forward for the next 4-5 years. I suspect that the hitting numbers in Milwaukee are a little inflated but the guy has serious pop for sure, as well as average and OBP. Close to a 1,000 OPS. He's only 27 and his numbers have been consistently good.
     
    If we let Ortiz go and sign Fielder we net one pick. He apparently wants to still play in the field though but he is a serious bat. Probably worth $17-19 mil to me, even as a DH. And he may not get that. Only a limited amount of teams will be spending that kind of cash and he is worth it according to the numbers. He can step in and play first if needed and he puts up monster numbers.

    I don't think spending big money on a DH is our top priority, especially since it might be the best landing spot for Lavarnway.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from bgomez. Show bgomez's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I don't know why you guys are suggesting Zambrano for Lackey. Lackey must go, but Big Z is a bigger clubhouse cancer than Lackey. Unless he can get his act together, that is a no-go.

    By the way, Fielder may be too rich for the Sox payroll. Which would you rather have, Ortiz and a top-tier starter, or Fielder and a mediocre starter? Keep into consideration that we could have a Cuddyer/Quentin on our payroll.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    To me, Aceves looks tougher mentally. I'd flip flop them and make Aceves the closer. The guy has done nothing but win since he has been in the league. I feel so strongly about this that I think I would let Paps go.

    Here is a great write up about Brandon Jacobs and Xander Bogaerts. 2 tremendous athletes tearing it up down in A ball Greenville. Jacobs has been strong this year but his peripheral stats indicate that it is to a degree potentially a fluke. He is just starting though so he has a ton of time to improve. Xander is highly regarded all over baseball right now as a potential phenom. Huge power numbers for an 18 year old SS in A ball:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brandon-jacobs-and-xander-bogaerts/
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Any thoughts on Fielder? It would seem that he is the elephant in the room, along with Pujols. I would think the Yanks would strongly consider that move with him at DH. Imagine that lineup! Where will ARod play when he's 53? If we get Fielder, the Yanks might get Papi. If we let Ortiz go for 2 picks, Fielder would seem to be a better bet going forward for the next 4-5 years. I suspect that the hitting numbers in Milwaukee are a little inflated but the guy has serious pop for sure, as well as average and OBP. Close to a 1,000 OPS. He's only 27 and his numbers have been consistently good.   If we let Ortiz go and sign Fielder we net one pick. He apparently wants to still play in the field though but he is a serious bat. Probably worth $17-19 mil to me, even as a DH. And he may not get that. Only a limited amount of teams will be spending that kind of cash and he is worth it according to the numbers. He can step in and play first if needed and he puts up monster numbers. I don't think spending big money on a DH is our top priority, especially since it might be the best landing spot for Lavarnway.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Great points Moon, and I think you are right. His numbers look pretty tasty though! There are few players in baseball putting up those type numbers year afer year.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Ells for Felix... interesting thooght, but it ain't happenin'.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : NO MORE JAPANESE PITCHERS!
    Posted by SoxPatsCelts1988


     The Japanese development fields are nothing but Dutch Tulip Bulb speculation.
    Their exports have sent one star (Ichiro), a late prime hitter (Matsui) and who else? 50 years of JUNK!!
     There are better players in the Boston after work league.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bostonman1025. Show Bostonman1025's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Ells for Felix... interesting thooght, but it ain't happenin'.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Obviously not in a one for one but add a prospect or so and a Mariners line-up that features Ellsbury, Ichiro, and a power hitter like Fielder possibly. That is a pretty dangerous team. Add their solid pitching and the people in seattle have something to cheer about. And unlike my origin thought of Upton for Ellsbury, the Mariners are more willing to spend the money. Their not a big market team but they have money to burn.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I :  The Japanese development fields are nothing but Dutch Tulip Bulb speculation. Their exports have sent one star (Ichiro), a late prime hitter (Matsui) and who else? 50 years of JUNK!!  There are better players in the Boston after work league.
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20


    YOOOUUUUKKK!

    You have a point. If anyone can make the leap as a pitcher though it might be Darvish. He has a 95-96 mph fastball and is quite big if I remember correctly. He has what looks to be conventional mlb level stuff. Unlike most of the Japanes pitchers. Kuroda has been decent. Nomo was decent. Saito was decent. Oki was decent. There have been a few asian pitchers which have had solid careers. It is important to note that we often see them after their prime. Darvish is still young.
     
    I don't think many of us are projecting the Sox to sign another Japanese pitcher soon though. Or having one who will want to sign with us. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : I didn't mean to put Youk in as a salary dump, but he has been mentioned a lot in trade rumors, so I included his salary with the others. How's this? Crawford ($120M/6) & Lackey ($46M/3)  for Soriano ($54M/3), Zambrano ($18M/1) and  Dempster ($14M)  We take the hit for 2012, but then are just on the hook for Soriano for 2 more years, but rid of CC and Lack.
    Posted by moonslav59
    To me Zambrano is radioactive. He physically fights with teammates and has done so on multiple occasions. He is mentally unstable. Lackey rolls his eyes and stinks. Zambrano stinks and punches out his catcher.

    Now maybe we DFA Zambrano in your scenario just to get out from under CC. I am not sure the players work to make the RS any better but the money works for Boston. In fact it works so well unless somebody on the Cubs thinks Crawford was his 2010 stat sheet.

    I can't see what is in it for the Cubs. It is too easy to just DFA Zambrano and find a suitor for Soriano at that deadline with them eating some money but getting some prospects back.

    Now Soriano for Lackey might have some synergy. Very similar money and the RS could use Soriano as a DH, spot LF. But Soriano isn't exactly a OBP machine, he is a lesser Vladdy who is aging quickly. He is a weak fundamentals guys too.

    Question is do the RS feel they just have to make those two guys go away? Lackey maybe. He is a tightly wrapped guy and his life is going to be hell in Boston until he wins 8 out of 10 with an ERA in the low 4's and getting him not to care and to learn how to tell the media, "I did not have it tonight, it is all on me, I have to do better and will" may be impossible. At least Crawford knows how to feed the mediots even if his play appears less caring than Lackey's.
     
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