A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I remember watching AGon during one game just before the All Star break.  He was in a tremendous streak.  In this game he got three, four, five hits, infield, opposite field, HR, single, whatever.  Several times the fielders moved around, and he hit it where they used to be.  The announcers said something to the effect "He seems to be hitting it wherever he wants."  It was quite amazing to watch that.  He and Papi seemed to get off track after the AS game--I don't know if that is really the HR derby thing  or just a coincidence.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It might have helped if they had a nice rest, but I'm not sure it hurt them as much as some posters seem to think it did.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If you get bored:  http://talk.baltimoresun.com/forumdisplay.php?f=9

    See how the other side lives.... we have it good here.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Smile
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from LadyLake. Show LadyLake's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]If you get bored:   http://talk.baltimoresun.com/forumdisplay.php?f=9 See how the other side lives.... we have it good here.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    There is activity there but you have to go down to those with today's date.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I'm just throwing this out there...is anyone on here actually going to spring training? For the first time in my lifetime I will be heading South on Feb 29th and returning April fools day with tickets in hand for all 18 home games at Jet Blue. (I know that I'll be missing the last game as we will be travelling back on April 1st.) I'm not sure what kind of computer access I'll have while there as I'll be taking care of my father-in-law who doesn't know what a computer or the internet is. But if any of the regulars on here will be there it will be great to get together. Those of you who have been reading any of my posts know that I am not much of a stats guy but I do have a pretty good baseball eye (guess I could never work for Billy Beane!) and I'll be happy to share my observations whenever I can.
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]

    Of all the bad luck.  We went last year.  This year, we opted to go to Fenway(wife has never been) in Sept. to see the Yankees.

    We would have loved to have met you.

    Have a great time.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Of all the bad luck.  We went last year.  This year, we opted to go to Fenway(wife has never been) in Sept. to see the Yankees. We would have loved to have met you. Have a great time.
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]

    You'll have fun in September also as the Sox go up one more game!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : There is activity there but you have to go down to those with today's date.
    Posted by LadyLake[/QUOTE]


    Yes there is actually more activity there than most other cities in terms of baseball towns. However it is nearly 90% negative on the team, and at least 50% frowning on the Duke.  
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : There is activity there but you have to go down to those with today's date.
    Posted by LadyLake[/QUOTE]


    Yes there is actually more activity there than most other cities in terms of baseball towns. However it is nearly 90% negative on the team, and at least 50% frowning on the Duke.  


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Won't be long now!  The countdown has begun.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : When a family obligation came up, this Seattle fan had to shelve my perfect four-game, three-day, two-night, one-15Krun itinerary for Spring Training: Saturday, March 10 am -- fly to Phoenix 1 pm -- Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners (ss), Peoria 7 pm -- Seattle Mariners (ss) at Arizona Diamondbacks, Talking Stick Sunday, March 11 8 am -- Mountain to Fountain 15K Run, Fountain Hills 1 pm -- Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants, Scottsdale Monday, March 12 9 am -- Seattle Mariners drills, Peoria practice fields 1 pm -- Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, Peoria 7 pm -- fly home
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Bummer, hill.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)


    Salty          $2.5M

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    Papi           $14.575M

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia      $6.7M

    Aviles        $1.2M

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $8.05M

    Ross          $3M

    Sweeney   $1.75M 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Lin           $_____ ($Min)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Mortensen $_____ ($ ??)

    Bard          $1.625M

    Aceves      $1.2M

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $3.9M

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $ 850K 

    Britton      $_____ ($Min)

    _______________________________________________ 

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $163M (25 players)

    Plus 15 nonarb players ($15 x ~$450K= $6.75M) 

    New Est. Total: $170M   (before player benefit payment).

    Now, add the player benefits cost of about $10M. 

     

    TOTAL:   ~$180M 

    That number could come down if Lackey's deal is altered due to the injury clause. His AVV could go from $16.5 to $13.8M. (Subtract about $2.7M from our payroll budget for tax purposes).  ~$177M 

    It could also go down if we cut Miller loose from his nonguaranteed 1.04M deal. (Save about $550K) ~$176M

    My numbers may be off a little, but it looks like we could stay under the luxury tax number by a hair.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Don't keep bumping this lame thread, bury it!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : You'll have fun in September also as the Sox go up one more game!
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    The eternal optimist!  I certainly hope it's true, yet I'm not holding my breath..

    Jid, Critter, Moon, or whoever: God-willing, if the wife and I are still around, we'll go to spring training 2013...promise....hold me to it.  Given the opportunity, it'd be criminal not to meet some of you guys.

    Harness and I tried hooking up in Seattle last year but he coudn't get into the section we were in during the series.  I'm hoping to meet him this season. I'll let him know we'll be there in June.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from LadyLake. Show LadyLake's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    You outdid yourself Moonslav. Great analysis and tabulation and up to date to the munute. Great job. Being under the Luxury tax ceiling bodes well for what the FO can do in the next few years.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]You outdid yourself Moonslav. Great analysis and tabulation and up to date to the munute. Great job. Being under the Luxury tax ceiling bodes well for what the FO can do in the next few years.
    Posted by LadyLake[/QUOTE]

    My numbers may be a little off. The player benefit number may be higher than $10M, so we may be slightly over. I'm also not sure about the Lackey calculation, since the final year is a club option not a player option, so it might not bring down the number.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    My numbers may be a little off

    Your numbers are way off, as, on a refreshing other non-bump thread, I provided the detailed player contract and cost numbers of the entire likely year end CBT capture date and amount. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]My numbers may be a little off Your numbers are way off, as, on a refreshing other non-bump thread, I provided the detailed player contract and cost numbers of the entire likely year end CBT capture date and amount. 
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]
    Please enlighten us ignorant and unwashed. Where, pray tell, can we find your definitive words master.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pike2. Show Pike2's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]My numbers may be a little off Your numbers are way off, as, on a refreshing other non-bump thread, I provided the detailed player contract and cost numbers of the entire likely year end CBT capture date and amount. 
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]


     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    My guess is our positional player roster is just about set, so I will begin my annual Sox positional projections at this time. I may adjust my projections after ST.

    Preliminary Notes: It is interesting to see that the MLB third base position has fallen so low offensively. It has declined to the point where the MLB catcher position is about even with 3B. SSs & 2Bmen have equal or higher BA and OBP with 3Bmen. LF has also decline to a point where they are outslugged by CF'ers (maybe thanks in large part to Jacoby). Also, RF almost outslugged 1Bmen in 2011.

    Stat Notes: I got my stats from fangraphs and baseball reference. Although I weigh OPS as the most important stat, I recognize that OBP is more important to generating runs than Slg%. My numbers are based on no injuries and no call-ups. I am assuming Iggy and Lava are in AAA. I know they will probably get some PAs in MLB this year, but I am keeping it simple here.

    Catcher: 
    MLB '11: .245/.314/.390/.704
    Sox '11: .229/.291/.446/.737

    Salty (384) .236  16  56  (.289/.452/.741)
    VTek (250)  .221  11  36 (.300/.423/.723)

    Although the Sox placed 10th in catcher OPS, we were 24th in OBP (5th in Slg%). Our catchers hit 29 HRs (1 away from 2nd place) and had 100 RBIs (2nd in MLB). A pretty productive season overall, even though there was a sharp dip in September.
    With the departure of VTek (who actually had a higher OBP than Salty), one might expect a decline in overall offense from the catcher position this year.  However, Tito never used a L-R catcher platoon last year, but instead used the personal caddy method. I expect that Bobby V will give Salty the chance to catch everyone and stick more to the L-R methodology. If he does this, we will see better numbers from Salty, since he hits RHPs much better (2011: .247/.304/.481/.786), and better numbers vs LHPs, since Shoppach hits LHPs very well: 
    (Career: .274/.373/.536/.909).

    2012 Projections:
    Salty (450) .250  20  75  (.310/.490/.800)
    Shop (200) .250  10  25  (.350/.450/.800)
    Sox:  (650) .250  30  100 (.325/.475/.800)  +.094

    First Base:
    MLB '11: .263/.338/.439/.778
    Sox '11: .329/.402/.541/.944

    AGon (715) .338  27  117 (.410/.548/.957)

    AGon had a great season, but I expect this year to be even better. We placed 4th in 1B OPS last season. I expect less BA, but more power at 1B this year. I know AGon will not get all the PAs at 1B, but for easier calculations, I will set it up this way. Here' my 2012 projection:

    AGon/Sox: (720) .300  45  140  (.410/.590/1.000) +.056

    Second base:
    MLB '11: .255/.316/.378/.694
    Sox '11: .308/.388/.474/.862

    Pedroia (731) .307  21  91 (.387/.474/.861)

    We had the best OPS in MLB at 2B last year. I expect the same in 2012. Go Pedey, Go!

    Pedey/Sox: (740) .300  20  100  (.395/.475/.870) +.008

    Third Base:
    MLB '11: .254/.314/.391/.705
    Sox '11: .270/.362/.449/.812

    Youk (517) .258/.373/.459/.833
    Lowrie (133 @ 3B) .275/.326/.433/.759

    This is a tough position to call this year. Since I am assuming 100% health, I am going to project a big improvemnet here, but I will not give Youk all the PAs. Youk had seen his OPS improve every season of his career until last year's steep decling. I will put him closer to his 2010 numbers than 2011's:

    Youk:   (600) .300  20  100  (.400/.540/.940)
    Punto: (100) .250     0    15  (.325/.325/.650)
    Sox:     (700) .290  20  115  (.390/.510/.900) +.088

    Short Stop:
    MLB '11: .258/.314/.370/.684
    Sox '11: .279/.330/.401/.730

    Scutaro: (445) .299  7  54  (.358/.423/.781)
    Lowrie (@SS): (187) .238/.278/.360/.639

    With the departure of Scooty, this is a tough call. Personally, I'd like to see Iggy as the FT SS, and we'd see a huge drop in SS OPs if we did, but I am going to give Aviles the nod at SS this year with help from Punto (I won't count Iggy). Here are my 2012 SS projections:

    Aviles: (550) .290  10  60 (.325/.415/.740)
    Punto: (100)  .250  0  15 (.325/.325/.650)  
    Sox: (650) .290  10  75  (.330/.400/.710) -.020

    Left Field:
    MLB '11: .256/.320/.409/.729
    Sox '11: .258/.304/.419/.723

    Crawford: (538) .255  11  56  (.289/.405/.694)
    Reddick (63) & DMac (50): .260  4  13  (.330/.490/.820)

    I'm expecting CC to return to about somewhere between his career norm and his most recent years in TB. My hope is that Bobby V sits CC vs tough lefties, but I doubt that happens. CC should get his normal rest vs lefties and will miss a few games at the start of the season. It's another tough call, but here it is (I am assuming almost all of DMac's PAs are vs LHPs):

    Crawford: (600) .290  12  85  (.350/.460/.810)
    Dar. Mac: (100) .275     6  15  (.340/.470/.810)
    Sox LF Total:     .285  18  100  (.345/.465/.800) +.077

    Center Field:
    MLB '11: .261/.325/.406/.731
    Sox '11: .316/.371/.548/.918

    Ellsbury: (729) .321  32  105  (.376/.552/.928)

    I am projecting that Jacoby will come close to his 2011 numbers.

    Sox: (770)  .320  30  100  (.380/.530/.910)  -.008

    Right Field:
    MLB '11: .263/.335/.429/.765
    Sox '11: .233/.299/.353/.652

    Drew (270)  .231  4  22 (.322/.316/.638)
    Redd (192) .257  3  13  (.302/.374/.676)
    DMac (86)  .256  4  14  (.314/.487/.801)
    Cam  (84)  .171   3    8  (.226/.316/.542)
     
    2011 saw a big mix of players in RF. The .652 OPS in RF was 113 points below the league average. Since RF has become one of the best hitting positions in MLb of late, this is totally unacceptable. Many will disagree with Ben on not assigning a top priority status to getting a RH'd slugger RF'er, but I think those posters will be surprised by the steep improvement in our RF production this year. Cody Ross has incredible numbers vs LHPs and not bad numbers vs RHPs as well, and Sweeney does very well vs righties. My guess is that Bobby V will play Ross vs all lefties and about half the RHPs that Ross has a good history against. I know many here do not like or are not familar with successful platoons, but I see this working out nicely for the Sox. Here are some telling numbers:
    Career:
    Ross (per 630 PA): .265  23  88  (.323/.456/.779)
    vs LHP:  .282  38  120  (.349/.563/.912)
    vs RHP:  .253  18    75  (.313/.414/.727)
    Sweeney (per 630 PAs)
    vs RHPs: .296  6  70  (.352/.402/.754) 
     
    If we can give Ross 220 PAs vs LHPs and 200 vs RHPs, and give Sweeney 220 vs RHPs and 30 vs LHPs, their overall numbers might look like this:
    C Ross (420) .270  25  90  (.335/.490/.825)
    Sween (250) .290    2  35  (.340/.390/.730)
    Total Sox: (670) .280  27  125  (.335/.440/.775) +.123

    Designated Hitter:
    MLB '11: .268/.342/.431/.773
    Sox '11: .308/.394/.531/.925

    D Ortiz: (605) .309  29  96  (.398/.554/.953)

    Papi turns 47 in November. He put up some nice numbers in 2011, although his RBI total was a bit low for a line-up like the Sox had last year. I'm going to project a drop off in 2012:

    Sox: (680)  .275  25  120  (.375/.525/.900) -.025

    Overall, it looks like we will see some big gains at some slots, and just a few positions where we stay about even of lose ground:
    RF: +.123
    C:   +.094  
    3B: +.088
    LF: +.077
    1B: +.056
    2B: +.008
    CF: -.008
    SS: -.020
    DH: -.025

    Overall: ~ + .035 in OPS

    I realize my numbers are based on some shaky ground, such as no injuries and projected platoon L-R splits, but I do feel like our offense has a strong potential to improve over 2011. RF should easily improve, while guessing that Youk and CC's improvements are a bit more speculative. Losses at SS, DH and CF might be much larger that I showed, but I find it hard to believe our overall OPS will be lower this year than 2011.



     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Great research and detail as usual Moon. Thanks! While I don't pretend to be much of a stats guy, I agree with you on the importance of OBP as the single most important stat. That lengthens innings, wears out pitchers, gets us into bullpens earlier and gives us a much better chance of scoring. I also like a 11 or 12 man rotation of position players rather than the same nine night in and night out. Having a dedicated DH in Ortiz has limited the manager in that regard for years here. But RF, SS, C and even LF and 3B are all positions where more than one player could see as many as 200 at bats. 

    And while you went into detail on the offense, I think a very key ingredient to this year's team will be a much improved defense. Sweeney, Ross, Shoppach and Punto are all very good defensive players, and upgrades over the players they are replacing. I think even Aviles is an upgrade over Scutaro, who I liked very much offensively, but not at all defensively. I also think that if he plays Aviles has the best chance of beating Moon's projections. I say "if he plays" because I would not be at all surprised to see Iglesias annointed as the regular SS, bat or no bat. Ozzie and Omar were a couple of great gloves that couldn't hit a lick when they started and they turned out all right. I have also said many times on here that the best SS I ever saw was Western Massachusetts' own Mark Belanger and although he couldn't hit, all he ever did was win!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Great research and detail as usual Moon. Thanks! While I don't pretend to be much of a stats guy, I agree with you on the importance of OBP as the single most important stat. That lengthens innings, wears out pitchers, gets us into bullpens earlier and gives us a much better chance of scoring. I also like a 11 or 12 man rotation of position players rather than the same nine night in and night out. Having a dedicated DH in Ortiz has limited the manager in that regard for years here. But RF, SS, C and even LF and 3B are all positions where more than one player could see as many as 200 at bats. 

    I agree, and think that this is the last year of having a DH-only DH. As we move into more NL play, we will need more or more flexibility.

    And while you went into detail on the offense, I think a very key ingredient to this year's team will be a much improved defense. Sweeney, Ross, Shoppach and Punto are all very good defensive players, and upgrades over the players they are replacing. I think even Aviles is an upgrade over Scutaro, who I liked very much offensively, but not at all defensively. I also think that if he plays Aviles has the best chance of beating Moon's projections. I say "if he plays" because I would not be at all surprised to see Iglesias annointed as the regular SS, bat or no bat. Ozzie and Omar were a couple of great gloves that couldn't hit a lick when they started and they turned out all right. I have also said many times on here that the best SS I ever saw was Western Massachusetts' own Mark Belanger and although he couldn't hit, all he ever did was win!

    I plan on doing a detailed defensive projection thread soon, but you may have stole all of my thunder. Replacing VTek with Shopp, Scott with Aviles, and Lowrie with Punto should help greatly. Replacing drew?Reddick with Ross/Sweeney might be a drop off, but not much. Hopefully a healthy Youk and a more Fenway-experienced CC will help improve our D over 2011 as well.

    I'm holding off on my pitcher projections, because I am not sure Ben is done improving the staff. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    If you didn't have your head up this thread's backside, you would have read my detailed CBT information. Moonshlep, himself, conceded my comment provided more accurate information. Needless to say, this thread needs to die so I won't be repeating what I provided on an earlier thread.
     

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